2Semana·

Iran Israel geopolitical tensions

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The tensions will be resolved quickly. High oil prices harm American consumers. Trump wants to prevent that. He also wants to conclude an agreement with China. China imports a lot of oil from Iran, which will hurt them. The same applies to India, with which Trump also wants to conclude an agreement.

Trump is pro-Israel and wants to help Israel achieve its military goals. However, he will not give Israel much time to do so. It will either be over as quickly as the Six-Day War or after two weeks at the latest, enforced by Trump.

12 Comentários

Chris@Multibagger

2Semana

And we have seen what influence DT has on conflict resolution! Russia/Ukraine, Israel's genocide in Palestine, etc. If you find irony, you can keep it!

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StocksBot@StocksBot

2Semana

@Multibagger What is certain is that Germany can do nothing but criticize in the strongest terms when it comes to geopolitics.

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Chris@Multibagger

2Semana

@StocksBot I think you misinterpreted my abbreviation. By DT I meant Donald Trump.😉

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StocksBot@StocksBot

2Semana

@Multibagger I actually did, sorry 🤦‍♂️.

As I said, I also think he'll let Israel do it for now, but not for too long.
I'd go so far as to say that Israel sees this as a weekend operation. Only when the Israelis drag things out too much will he probably intervene.

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Nom@user28461

2Semana

@Multibagger There is no genocide in Palestine.

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Matthias@duncan10r

@user28461 Would be the first genocide where the population has doubled in the last 20 years, if you limit it to Gaza. You can read about it on Statista. I think it's a shame to read such anti-Semitic takes here.

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Chris@Multibagger

@duncan10r That's an interesting comparison, looking at the population development over 20 years in a country that has been at war for several months. In terms of the stock market, it would be the same if I were to say that a share that went public a year ago has underperformed on average over 20 years.

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Chris@Multibagger

@user28461 I know that this is the only country where children are born as Hamas terrorists.
But as I said before, this is supposed to be about finances and not about political discussions. https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Bericht-Israelische-Soldaten-erhielten-Schiessbefehl-gegen-Hungernde-article25864795.html

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German1@German1

2Semana

But high oil prices are helping the American fracking industry.

"According to estimates, production is only worthwhile for most American fracking companies from a price of around 60 dollars per barrel."

https://www.capital.de/wirtschaft-politik/oelpreis-aktuell--so-will-die-opec-die-us-oelindustrie-treffen-35696030.html

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StocksBot@StocksBot

2Semana

@German1 Of course. No new rigs are currently being tackled in the Permian. It won't really get going until USD 75. Nevertheless, I currently believe that Trump is focusing more on consumers than on the O&G industry.
I also see that the industry is currently focusing on building midstream rather than upstream as a lot of gas is currently being given away.

Further execution, if inflation is very high in e.g. Q4 25, interest rates on long-term U.S. government bonds will go even higher, which Trump wants to solve first. The oil price can also go up later, but first the short-term treasuries have to be refinanced.

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Chris@Multibagger

2Semana

@German1 That is precisely the point. And in the case of gas, the American LNG industry too. Long live my $VG derivative.

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Maximilian@Max095

2Semana

$FANG 🚀

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