The U.S. Treasury is buying more long-term Treasury bonds than usual—outside of its normal schedule. Officially, this is not a new QE program, but investors see it as a signal: Washington apparently wants to cap long-term interest rates. This increases pressure on the Fed to lower short-term interest rates—even as inflation remains stubbornly high and the Fed has recently shown itself to be rather cautious. This contradiction is eroding confidence in the dollar and benefiting investments such as $GOLD and $BTC (+0,4%) the so-called “debasement trade.”
In the case of #bitcoin , something unusual came into play: For an entire year, hedges against falling prices on the options markets were conspicuously expensive—a sign of just how cautiously many investors were positioned. Following statements by U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent, the picture abruptly reversed; strong ETF inflows triggered a sharp rally, during which the price rose by double digits within a few days. The pattern is reminiscent of January 2023, the end of the last bear market. Following this strong rally, a breather is likely for now—but the chances that the bear market is actually over continue to rise.
