5D·

Detailed analysis of SoFi - (Why I see 5X potential)

SoFi is a unique bank, and I think that you will see it the same way after my analysis at the latest.


As is generally known, I only have five companies in my portfolio. ($RKLB (-0,47%)
$IREN (-1,34%)
$SOFI (-0,39%)
$HIMS (+0,26%) and $PNG (+0,32%) + $BTC (+0,01%) )

So the weighting is relatively high and I have to be clear about why I have chosen exactly these five companies...


The analysis of $RKLB (-0,47%) Rocket Lab was very well received by the community last week, thank you for that! Today, I'm following up with the second of the five stocks I have in my portfolio: SoFi (Social Finance). I would like to explain to you why SoFi is not just a bank, but a modern FinTech with structural advantages. This analysis also took a lot of time, so I would be delighted if you could give me some feedback!


Overview of the analysis


1. foundation and history

2. lending as a basis

3. own banking license

4. strategic acquisitions (Galileo, Technisys)

5.quarterly results Q3 2025

6.own opinion


1. foundation and history


SoFi was founded in 2011 by four students: Mike Cagney, Dan Macklin, James Finnigan and Ian Brady. They were students at the Stanford Graduate School of Business and had the goal of offering affordable student loans. Loans for students in the US were (and still are) very expensive and often depended on the student's credit score.


The founders had the idea of bringing together alumni - i.e. former students who are already working - with current students. The idea was to create a network in which alumni could grant loans to current students. In doing so, former students would not only demonstrate social commitment, but also earn a return through interest.


Over time, SoFi developed further and moved into new business areas. Today, SoFi offers numerous financial services, such as personal loans, savings and current accounts and investment services.


In 2021, SoFi went public with the help of a SPAC. Generally, SPAC IPOs have a rather negative reputation, but so far SoFi has clearly proven that it was not a "dead company" that was floated on the stock exchange.

attachment



2. lending - the foundation of SoFi


This segment was the beginning of SoFi. The basic idea behind the company was to finance students who would otherwise only be able to obtain a loan at a very high cost.


And most of SoFi's cash flow still comes from lending. In the last quarter, most of the revenue came from this segment. This segment is so important because it offers good margins and a stable basis for the overall business.

-> SoFi achieved a contribution margin of 54% in this segment in the last quarter.


Another advantage is that many of the loans are still taken out by students. This allows SoFi to retain customers at an early stage - creating a kind of moat. If you are with a bank, you need good reasons to switch to another bank.


In addition, young students enter working life at some point. They earn money, possibly start investing or open additional accounts for family and children. So if they've already had a positive experience with SoFi, why would they switch to another bank?


That's what makes this FinTech unique.


3. importance of the banking license


SoFi has had a banking license since 2022.

This license enables SoFi to accept its own deposits, allowing the company to refinance itself much more cheaply than through external partner banks or other FinTechs.


It also allows SoFi to grant loans directly and hold them on its own balance sheet. This leads to higher margins and more control over the lending business.


The license also allows SoFi to offer attractive interest rates on accounts, which attracts more customer money and accelerates the growth of the deposit base. (In Germany, it is comparable to Trade Republic + customer service 😂)

At the same time, the banking license gives SoFi greater credibility, which strengthens trust among customers, investors and partners.


Overall, the banking license creates the basis for SoFi to scale its business model and develop from a FinTech into a fully-fledged, modern bank (one-stop bank).


However, the banking license alone would not justify why SoFi should be "the bank of the future". There are over 4000 smaller and larger banks in the US that also have a banking license.


4. strategic acquisitions: Galileo & Technisys

attachment

Galileo was acquired in 2020 for around 1.2 billion US dollars. Galileo is SoFi's technology and payment infrastructure and is a cornerstone of its business model.


The platform provides scalable backend systems that FinTechs, banks and payment service providers use to manage accounts, issue cards, process payment flows and automate compliance processes. Companies such as Chime, Robinhood and Varo use Galileo to technically operate their banking and card products.


For SoFi, Galileo means a high-margin, recurring B2B revenue model - independent of interest income.


Another acquisition that SoFi made in 2022 is Technisys.

The software forms the cloud infrastructure for transactions and accounting. The system ensures that transactions are booked correctly and errors are avoided.


This means that SoFi not only has a banking license, but also its own technology - a combination that is rare in the US financial sector and contributes significantly to scalability.


ChatGPT explained this to me in a nutshell:


"Galileo provides the scalable back-end infrastructure for account management, card issuance and payment processing.

Technisys provides the core banking system that processes transactions, bookings and account logic in real time.

Together, the two enable SoFi to operate all of its banking functions independently and entirely on its own technology."


5. quarterly results Q3 2025


The last quarterly figures were characterized by strong growth and increasing profitability.

attachment

- Revenue (adjusted net revenue) amounted to USD 962 million, an increase of 38% compared to Q3 2024.

attachment

- Net income (GAAP) amounted to 139 million US dollars.

attachment
  • The margin also improved to 29%!


attachment

- The share of fee-driven revenue also increased significantly, which shows that the company is earning money in an increasingly diversified way

attachment

- The member base was around 12.6 million, an increase of 35% year-on-year.

attachment

- The number of financial services products was around 18 million - an increase of around 36 to 37 percent.


The fact that sales have risen faster than the number of users indicates that customers are increasingly using more products on SoFi. This would confirm my theory that students who initially only had a loan on SoFi are now opening current accounts or investing via the platform.

attachment

SoFi's much-noticed Rule of 40 was recently around 67 - so the company combines strong margins with rapid growth.


Overall, the quarterly figures are very convincing and support my long-term thesis.


6 My own opinion


I think the company is well on the way to joining the league of large US banks. While large banks often have complex structures and hierarchies, SoFi is innovative and strategically well positioned.

attachment

SoFi pursues the clear goal of becoming a one-stop bank and retains customers in the long term. With its own technology platform and the early retention of students and young people, SoFi has a special position. I am very optimistic that the company can continue to grow strongly.


What I didn't mention above, Social Finance, is also heavily involved in sponsoring sporting events in the US, which leads to many young people discovering the bank through advertising or marketing campaigns...


What I think could have a negative impact on the share price in the short term is the recently announced capital measure that was announced this week. Around 1.5 billion US dollars are to be raised by diluting existing shareholders. The aim is to accelerate growth and strengthen the company's balance sheet.


In my opinion, however, this is a good decision in the long term, as the management has already proven on several occasions that it handles the capital entrusted to it strategically and sensibly - the acquisitions of Galileo and Technisys, for example.


The market capitalization is currently around 30 billion US dollars, which in my opinion makes the company slightly undervalued. However, if you look at the long-term growth, I believe that a five-fold increase or even more is quite possible in the next ten years!


In the next quarterly results, I will be paying particular attention to whether growth can be maintained and margins continue to rise...


With this in mind, I wish you a happy and reflective second Advent and hope that you enjoyed my second analysis.


Please give me feedback again - I really appreciate it when I get feedback on what I can improve 😉


Please also let me know if I should tag you or, if I already tag you under my posts, if I should continue to do so ...


If you haven't read the analysis of Rocket Lab yet here:

Part 1: https://getqu.in/7y934F/

Part 2: https://getqu.in/TQJcW6/


LG Kleinanleger ✌️


Sources:


https://investors.sofi.com/overview/default.aspx


https://de.finance.yahoo.com/quote/SOFI/


https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/SoFi


https://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-2025-12/67162429-sofi-aktie-faellt-nach-ankuendigung-des-aktienverkaufs-im-wert-von-1-5-milliarden-us-dollar-046.htm


https://www.it-boltwise.de/sofi-technologies-plant-umfangreiches-aktienangebot-zur-kapitalstaerkung.html


https://de.investing.com/news/company-news/sofi-im-q3-2025-gebuhrengeschaft-treibt-umsatz-und-gewinn-auf-rekordniveau-93CH-3203635?utm_source=chatgpt.com


https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250429676374/en/SoFi-Reports-First-Quarter-2025-with-Record-Net-Revenue-of-%24772-Million-Record-Member-and-Product-Growth-Net-Income-of-%2471-Million?utm_source=chatgpt.com


https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/sofi/forecast/


@Tenbagger2024
@Multibagger
@BamBamInvest
@SAUgut777
@Aktienfox
@All-in-or-nothing
@Shiya
@Hotte1909
@Simpson
@Wiktor_06
@TradingHase
@TomTurboInvest
@Semos25
@Iwamoto
@HoldTheMike
@ImmoHai
@EpsEra

$SOFI (-0,39%)

18.11
SoFi Tech logo
Comprado em € 22,75
86
45 Comentários

imagem de perfil
Nice summary.
You just forgot to mention that they are also the namesake of the LA Rams stadium 🐐🇺🇸
6
imagem de perfil
@7Trader Thank you! That's true, you're right! In my analysis, however, I focused for the most part on the financial and business areas. Sponsoring sporting events is part of the strategy to retain young people.
1
imagem de perfil
@7Trader will once again host the Super Bowl on February 14, 2027.
1
imagem de perfil
@Dirty30 ja genau 🤘🏽
Go Rams go 🐐😝
1
imagem de perfil
@7Trader I know the stadium from the Taylor Swift era tour show on Disney 😂 I was allowed to watch it with my girlfriend and I was like, oh cool, SoFi, honey, that's a stock company 😂
2
imagem de perfil
I like your strategy with the High Concentrated Portfolio
And that you put so much thought into the companies
You know your way around where you invest
Keep up the good work 👐🏼
6
imagem de perfil
@Shiya Thank you 🤝 your depot is once again the final boss in terms of concentration 😂😁 -> maximum return
1
imagem de perfil
@Klein-Anleger1 Too bad you didn't opt for $NBIS
1
imagem de perfil
@Shiya Huhu, may I ask why you are so convinced of Nebius? Their fundamentals look terrible... no positive cash flow (not profitable), taking on a lot of debt, high P/E ratio etc.
LG
imagem de perfil
📌 SoFi (SOFI) - Extremely brief analysis of Mir:
* Growth: 38% 4Y CAGR (sales & cash flow). TOP!
* Valuation: P/E ratio ≈66.79, is ≈143% above industry (≈27.5). Too expensive.
* Profitability: ROIC (0.1%), ROA (2%), ROE (9%). Poor. Capital is used inefficiently.
* Risks:
* Moat: Only 4/10th Easily vulnerable.
* Leadership: Young, still needs to prove experience in capital allocation.
* Governance: Mediocre, incidents with business ethics.
* Conclusion: Hype stock with potential, has a lot of money, but no strategy due to young management and experience to use it excellently or well + moat and business model is expandable + high FinTech competition. Overall more speculation than growth, so not for the portfolio: Wait and see.
5
imagem de perfil
Have been in since 6$. However, I recently sold 25% of the position.
3
imagem de perfil
@Dirty30 Hi, as profit-taking, or because you're no longer convinced 😁?
1
imagem de perfil
@Klein-Anleger1 profit-taking only.
1
imagem de perfil
@Dirty30 I have them in my portfolio at € 5.5 and haven't sold anything yet
🤑🤞🏼
3
imagem de perfil
@7Trader you can also do 🚀😁
1
imagem de perfil
@7Trader May I ask how you came across this company so early on?
1
imagem de perfil
@Fintastic as a fan of the LA Rams, you couldn't miss it 😉
Apart from that, you couldn't miss the IPO.
1
imagem de perfil
@Fintastic the share not only lost 85% of its value in 2022, but also moved sideways until 2024 despite consistently outstanding quarterly figures. The market virtually handed out gifts to those who accumulated at USD 6 during this period.
1
imagem de perfil
Your second presentation is also well done. I have been invested in Sofi for some time.
I am skeptical about the dilution in the short term and expect the share price to fall.
Possibly an opportunity to buy more.
There is also news at Traderepublic, where you are already using TR as a comparison
TR has obviously understood that its customer service is garbage with inadequate chat functions and has decided to completely reorganize its customer service and make it more personal.
Too late for me, as I turned my back on TR because of their lousy customer service.
3
imagem de perfil
@TradingHase Thank you! ☺️
Things could indeed rumble a bit in the short term, but the management has always had a strategic plan so far, which has then led to more growth. I am confident that it will be the same this time 😁📈
2
imagem de perfil
Thanks for your analysis. I am not invested in Sofi even though it is a very exciting company.

Reasons:
1: In my opinion, I have "better" high-growth companies on the watchlist in my portfolio and therefore decided against it.
2: Finance/banking business know-how is less present for me, I concentrate on tech/health
3: I find the focus on personal loans very risky
4: In my opinion, growth/ margins/ and valuation are slightly overvalued compared to the status quo
5: With the CEO I have the feeling that more story telling... and less the know-how is partly in the foreground. (But that's a personal opinion) PS: I had a quick look in the forums and this is also being discussed
6: 10% short quote you would have to take a look at the reports, but also rather critical
7: Support/customer service complaints (see Trustpilot/Reddit/x)
2
imagem de perfil
@Aktienfox Thank you for your assessment,
Regarding point 3, they are currently making the transition away from provat loans to fee-driven income...
Regarding point 4, there may be a slight overvaluation in the short term, but the company is also growing at a very high double-digit percentage rate and is also improving its margins QoQ.
Regarding point 5, there is certainly a lot of storytelling behind it, but I think that the CEO also backs up the story with figures. When has the last few quarters exceeded expectations every time and the forecast has been raised several times...
Regarding point 6, e.g. IREN also has a strongly increased short rate at the moment, Hims Hers also has a significant short rate -> in the short term it may even be understandable to go short as long as the capital measures are carried out. After that, however, I wouldn't dare!
I can't comment on point 7 because I don't feel sufficiently informed 😁
But thank you for the exchange and the food for thought! ✌️
imagem de perfil
@Klein-Anleger1 A high short ratio is not bad if you know the risks. For example, I read the short report of banks on which the short ratios are based and classify them, I didn't do that with Sofi because they are not currently available for me to choose from, but that has to be clear to everyone :)
1
imagem de perfil
Another good contribution from you, thanks for that.🙏🏻 I would like to continue to be "pushed" directly, so feel free to mark me in the future.😉 I've been on board with SoFi for a year now and the savings plan continues to run smoothly.😁👍🏻
1
imagem de perfil
@All-in-or-nothing Thank you! 🤝
I think we will still have a lot of fun with the company 😁
1
imagem de perfil
Thank you very much for the detailed analysis. Apart from $HIMS, I am also invested in all other shares and am already looking forward to your analysis of $PNG
1
imagem de perfil
@Faule_Socke Thank you! $PNG is sure to come in the next few weeks! That's where I personally see the most potential 🤫😁
1
@Klein-Anleger1 Thank you very much for your work. It was a pleasure to read. My purchase price is around €15. However, I have bought more several times. That's the way 💪🚀
PS: I'm also looking forward to Kraken. I also have it in my portfolio.
1
imagem de perfil
@Johannes1993 Thank you for your feedback 🤝✌️
imagem de perfil
@Tenbagger2024 What do you think of SoFi? 😁👋
imagem de perfil
@Klein-Anleger1
Is one of my biggest positions
1
imagem de perfil
@Klein-Anleger1
Thanks for the great contribution 😘
1
imagem de perfil
@Tenbagger2024 Thank you ☺️
What did you think, did I forget something fundamental or didn't mention it ? 🙈✌️
imagem de perfil
@Klein-Anleger1
No, well done.
Very detailed.
In contrast to my expectations, you talk a lot about the past.
I always like to look into the future.
And pick out the estimates. And what the company's strategy is for the future.
1
imagem de perfil
@Tenbagger2024 That's right, it actually makes more sense to look into the future, because that usually has a greater impact on the share than founding the company 10 years ago 😬
The only advantages I have is that I can
1. I may be able to assess the dynamics of growth better because I am more familiar with the business model and management.
2. and I can better understand the management's decisions and therefore trust them more -> I can sleep more soundly 🙈

But I'll make sure that next time I talk more clearly about long-term goals and forecasts... 👋
1
imagem de perfil
@Klein-Anleger1
We are undergoing a transformation in some areas.
For example, the automotive industry has had good years in the past. That would mean that if I look at the past, everything is fine. But when I look to the future, I see major challenges.
For software companies, it is difficult to predict which software will eventually be replaced by AI.
New technologies such as robotics and autonomous mobility will come.
That's why I think it's so important to pick out the players with a view to the future.
1
imagem de perfil
@Tenbagger2024 You're right!
Of the five stocks I have in my portfolio, I see the greatest potential in Kraken Robotics. And I haven't written the article yet, so I can go into more detail about the future because they are operating in a fast-growing market...
It's also currently my largest position in the portfolio 🤫😁
imagem de perfil
@Klein-Anleger1
I actually wanted to take a step back here. Otherwise I would have presented another exciting company that is making inroads into some future sectors. Including underwater technology.
1
imagem de perfil
@Tenbagger2024 give out the title 🤫 I'm really curious 😉 and just don't withdraw, or do you mean just take a temporary break? Otherwise the community would be as good as dissolved 🫥🤔
imagem de perfil
@Klein-Anleger1
I don't want to push myself too much into the foreground here. I think that bothers some people here. And could also be annoying
1
Ver todas as 5 restantes respostas
Participar na conversa