$BTC (+0,51%) rebounded this week to around $65,800, reaching its highest level in nearly two weeks. This was triggered by a preliminary agreement reached on June 14 between the United States and Iran to suspend hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Just under 20 percent of the world’s seaborne oil passes through this waterway. Its reopening therefore pushed the oil price down by nearly five percent to just under $81 per barrel. For us, however, the monetary policy signal is more important than the immediate market reaction.
Falling energy prices are easing inflationary pressures, which had recently caused central banks to remain cautious. This creates more room for interest rate cuts and lower real yields in the second half of the year. This channel has a #bitcoin particularly strongly. As a long-term store of value, $BTC (+0,51%) significantly more sensitive to the direction of real yields and global liquidity than to short-term fluctuations in risk sentiment. Therefore, a credible easing of the geopolitical situation is far more important than the headline alone would suggest.
