Wayfair ($W) was a clear winner in e-commerce during the pandemic, but experienced a drastic crash afterwards. Now that the market has stabilized, investors are asking themselves: Is Wayfair ripe for a comeback or will the company remain under pressure?

Overview: What does Wayfair do?

Wayfair is one of the world's largest online retailers for furniture and home accessories. The company operates an asset-light model, which means that it does not produce its own furniture, but brokers products via a broad network of manufacturers and suppliers.

✅ Wayfair.com: Main platform for online furniture retail in the USA, Canada and Europe.

✅ Wayfair Professional: B2B platform for companies and interior designers.

✅ Perigold, AllModern, Birch Lane and Joss & Main: Other brands covering different design styles.

Wayfair relies heavily on data analysis and AIto understand buying behavior and optimize the supply chain.

Competition: Who are the competitors?

🔸 Amazon ($AMZN) (-6,32%) & Walmart ($WMT) - Huge competition in online retail, which also offer furniture.

🔸 IKEA - The stationary furniture giant that is constantly expanding its online presence.

🔸 Home Depot ($HD) (-3,95%) & Lowe's ($LOW) (-4,89%) - Important competitors in the Home & Living segment.

🔸 Etsy ($ETSY) (-1,63%) & smaller specialty retailers - Competition from individual furniture and decoration suppliers.

Wayfair has the advantage of being a pure online specialist specialist for furniture, but has to hold its own against financially strong rivals.

Opportunities: Why could Wayfair make a comeback?

✅ Efficiency gains: Wayfair has worked hard on its cost structure and reduced staff in recent quarters.

✅ Stabilization of demand: After the extreme boom in 2020-2021 and the decline in 2022-2023, the market could now normalize.

✅ Improved consumer climate: Falling inflation and potential interest rate cuts could boost purchasing power.

✅ Improved margins: The company has recently achieved higher gross margins, which indicates better cost control.

✅ Expansion of B2B business: Wayfair Professional continues to grow and could be a stable revenue generator in the long term.

Risks: What could continue to weigh on Wayfair? ⚠️

⚠️ High competitive pressure: Amazon, IKEA and Walmart are strong opponents with better supply chains.

⚠️ Dependence on macro factors: High interest rates and weak consumer sentiment could delay the recovery.

⚠️ Profitability remains fragile: Wayfair has made losses in the past and needs to show it can sustain profits.

⚠️ Logistics and storage costs: Despite efficiency gains, shipping bulky furniture remains a challenge.

⚠️ Customer loyalty: Unlike Apple or Tesla, customers have little loyalty to Wayfair - many simply compare prices with the competition.

Conclusion: turnaround opportunity or value trap?

Wayfair could be one of the most exciting turnaround candidates in 2025. The company has worked hard on its cost structure and could benefit from a recovery in consumer sentiment. However, competition remains intense and it is not yet certain whether Wayfair will become sustainably profitable.

What do you think? Does Wayfair have the potential for a strong recovery or will the share remain a shaky candidate? 🚀

An overview of the dismissals (last 3 months), via Twitter.

• Twitch: 35%
  
• Hasbro: 20%
  
• Spotify ($SPOT (+1,12%) ): 17%
• Levi's: 15%
  
• Zerox ($ZEROX (-0%) ): 15%
• Qualtrics ($XM ): 14%
• Wayfair ($W ): 13%
• Duolingo: 10%
• Washington Post: 10%
• eBay ($EBAY (-3,23%) ): 9%
  
• Business Insider: 8%
  
• Charles Schwab ($SCHW (-4,84%) ): 6%
  
• Macy's ($M (-12,58%) ): 4%
  
• Blackrock ($BLK ): 3%
  
• Citigroup ($C (-11,29%) ): 20,000
  
• UPS ($UPS (-9,45%) ): 12,000
  
• Pixar: 1,300
  
• Salesforce ($CRM (-5,58%) ): 700
  
• American Airlines: 650
• PayPal ($PYPL (-7,18%) ): 2,500

Quarterly figures on 03.11.2022...

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...at 5,000 followers there will be together with getquin, a small thank you for the community. But this post could already be created tomorrow. I look forward to it! On to today's quarterly numbers. In this post that I post every morning, I had announced what was happening today:

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$SBUX (-10,63%)
Starbucks:

Beat analyst estimates of $0.73 in the fourth quarter with earnings per share of $0.81. Revenue of $8.4 billion beat expectations of $8.33 billion.

$PYPL (-7,18%)
PayPal:

Beats analyst estimates of $0.96 in the third quarter with earnings per share of $1.08. Revenue of $6.85 billion beats expectations of $6.82 billion.

$DBX (-1,56%)
Dropbox:

Beat analyst estimates of $0.38 in the third quarter with earnings per share of $0.43. Revenue of $591 million exceeded expectations of $586.15 million.

$DASH (-6,39%)
DoorDash:

Missed analyst estimates of -$0.55 in the third quarter with earnings per share of -$0.77. Revenue of $1.7 billion exceeded expectations of $1.62 billion.

$GPRO (-15,18%)
GoPro:

Beat analyst estimates of $0.17 in the third quarter with earnings per share of $0.19. Revenue of $305 million exceeded expectations of $298.85 million.

$MSI (-1,9%)
Motorola Solutions:

Beats third-quarter analyst estimates of $2.88 with earnings per share of $3.00. Revenue of $2.37 billion beats expectations of $2.31 billion.

$HOT (-1,43%)
Hochtief:

Reached sales of 7.18 billion euros in the third quarter, up from 5.32 billion a year earlier, and earned 115 million euros on the bottom line, up from 99.8 million a year earlier. Order intake on a comparable basis was 6.5 billion (prior year 7.5 billion).

$K (-1,59%)
Kellogg Co:

Surpassed analysts' estimates of $0.97 in the third quarter with earnings per share of $1.01. Sales of $3.95 billion exceeded expectations of $3.77 billion.

$RCL (+0%)
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd:

Beat analyst estimates of $0.19 in the third quarter with earnings per share of $0.26. Revenue of $3 billion exceeded expectations of $2.99 billion.

$UAA (-15,87%)
Under Armour Inc:

Second-quarter earnings per share of $0.20 beat analyst estimates of $0.10. Revenue of $1.57 billion exceeded expectations of $1.42 billion.

$W
Wayfair Inc:

Missed analyst estimates of -$2.05 in the third quarter with earnings per share of -$2.11. Revenue of $2.8 billion below expectations of $2.82 billion.

$PTON
Peloton Interactive Inc:

Missed analyst estimates of -$0.64 with first-quarter earnings per share of -$1.20. Revenue of $616.5 million below expectations of $637.07 million.

$DDOG (-4,97%)
Datadog Inc:

Third-quarter earnings per share of $0.23 beat analyst estimates of $0.16. Revenue of $437 million exceeded expectations of $415.07 million.

$MRNA (-6,62%)
Moderna Inc:

Missed analyst estimates of $4.81 in the third quarter with earnings per share of $2.53. Revenue of $3.36 billion below expectations of $4.63 billion.

$CROX (+0%)
Crocs Inc:

Missed analyst estimates of $2.62 in the third quarter with earnings per share of $2.50. Revenue of $985.1 million exceeded expectations of $942.52 million.

$IRM (-7,45%)
Iron Mountain Inc:

Third-quarter earnings per share of $0.48 beat analyst estimates of $0.44. Sales of $1.29 billion below expectations of $1.31 billion.

$SBS (+0,53%)
STRATEC:

Posts Q1-3 sales of €207.7 million (preliminary: €207.7 million), adjusted EBIT margin of 18.3% (preliminary: 18.3%), and net income (adjusted) of €29.5 million (PY: €40.6 million). Outlook confirmed.

$BOSS (-6,2%)
HUGO BOSS:

Achieves Q3 sales of €933 million (PY: €755, analyst forecast: €903.4 million), EBIT of €92 million (PY: €85 million, forecast: €88.1 million) and net income of €58 million (PY: €53 million, forecast: €56.6 million). In the outlook for 2022, the company now expects sales of €3.5 to €3.6 billion (previous: €3.3 to €3.5 billion) and EBIT of €310 to €330 million (previous: €285 to €310 million).

$SGL (-1,5%)
SGL CARBON:

Achieves Q1-3 sales of €853.9 million (previous year: €743.5 million), Ebitda (adjusted) of €136.1 million (previous year: €108.5 million) and net income after minorities of €70.6 million (previous year: €42.6 million). Forecast confirmed.

$PFV (+0,32%)
Pfeiffer Vacuum:

Achieves Q1-3 order intake of €866.5 million (preliminary: €866.5 million), sales of €668.7 million (preliminary: €668.7 million), EBIT of €94 million (preliminary: €94 million) and net income of €66.6 million (PY: €52.1 million). October 17 forecast for revenue and Ebit margin confirmed.

$HNR1 (+0,61%)
Hannover Re:

Achieves 3. Gross premiums written of €8.91 billion (PY: €7.15 billion, analyst forecast: €8.02 billion), combined ratio of 99.6% (PY: 101.5%, forecast: 99.6%), investment result of €400.3 million (PY: €491.1 million), an Ebit of €408.9 million (PY: €324.5 million, forecast: €399 million) and a net profit of €221.9 million (PY: €185.4 million, forecast: €311 million). In the outlook for 2022, the company sees net income in the lower range of €1.4 billion to €1.5 billion, profit target for 2022 remains achievable.

$UN01
Uniper:

Achieves 1st to 3rd. Quarter net result of -€40 billion (PY: -€4.8 billion), net loss includes €10 billion realized costs for replacement volumes; economic net debt at €10.91 billion (PY: €0.324 billion), net loss includes €31 billion expected losses and provisions; adjusted net loss of -€3.22 billion (preliminary: -€3.2 billion, prior year: +€0.487 billion), adjusted EBIT of -€4.75 billion (preliminary: -€4.8 billion, prior year: +€0.614 billion). Concrete earnings forecast currently impossible for the time being.

$O2D (+1,86%)
Telefonica Germany:

Achieves Q3 sales of €2.085 billion (PY: €1.967 billion, analyst forecast: €2.030 billion), service sales of €1.47 billion (PY: €1.42 billion), adjusted OIBDA of €642 million (PY: €613 million, forecast: €640.5 million). In the outlook for 2022, sales and OIBDA are now expected to be in the "lower mid-single-digit percentage range" compared to the previous year (previously: in the "low mid-single-digit percentage range").

$BMW (-2,73%)
BMW:

Reports Q3 sales of €37.18 billion (PY: €27.47 billion, analysts' forecast: €35.53 billion), EBIT of €3.68 billion (PY: €2.88 billion, forecast: €3.5 billion), EBT of €4.1 billion (PY: €3.42 billion) and net income of €3.18 billion (PY: €2.58 billion). Outlook confirmed.

$ZAL (-2,37%)
Zalando:

Achieves Q3 revenues of €2.34 billion (PY: €2.28 billion), Ebit (adjusted) of €13.5 million (PY: €9.8 million) and net result of -€35.4 million (PY: -€8.4 million); number of active customers grows by 8% and exceeds 50 million for the first time. Outlook confirmed.

$COP (-0,62%)
CompuGroup:

Posts Q1-3 revenue of €802 million (preliminary: €802 million), Ebitda of €166 million (preliminary: €166 million) and net income of €59.8 million (PY: 56.6 million). Outlook confirmed.

$RAA (-2,46%)
RATIONAL:

Achieves Q3 sales of €274.2 million (PY: €207 million, analyst forecast: €270 million), Ebit of €70.3 million (PY: €49.7 million, forecast: €64.4 million), Ebit margin of 25.6% (PY: 24.0%) and net income of €53.8 million (PY: €37.8 million). Forecast confirmed.

$KCO (+0%)
Klöckner & Co:

Achieves 3rd quarter sales of €2.37 billion (PY: €2.0 billion), Ebitda (adjusted) of €16 million (PY: €277 million) and net result of -€22 million (PY: +€185 million). Outlook confirmed.

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