In 2024, a lot has happened for me financially. I started investing around the middle of 2021. As I come from a family in which investing in the stock market was rather frowned upon (my parents invested in car manufacturers in 2000, which then slipped in 2001 just like everything else and they realized the losses), I only dared to start with small amounts bit by bit on an ETF basis in 2021. Financial flow classic 70% MSCI World ETF and 30% MSCI EM. The good thing about this was above all building up the automatism of investing money steadily and not waiting until the end of the month.

However, in 2024 I started to look more closely at the topic of finance, sometimes watching Berkshire conferences with Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger and realized that I was interested in individual stocks and would like to own Apple (shares) myself, for example. In February 24' I then looked at my EM position and saw that the position had been more or less at 0 since '21. So I sold just under €1000 and put it into Apple. And no, I didn't calculate the intrinsic value of the share first and didn't know at the time that Apple would be launching devices with AI at the end of 2024. I myself work in the field of software engineering/data science and if someone has the choice, you actually always take the Macbook over Windows computers. But that's another topic for debate :)

The Apple shares then performed really well even after the purchase and I was fascinated by the fact that I generated more unrealized profits with a single share or 6 Apple shares within 2 months than with the EM in 4 years. (I'll come back to EM later)

From March onwards, I suspended my savings plan in the ETFs and simply put the money in my Scalable clearing account instead. I didn't know what exactly I wanted to buy now, so pretty much from mid-24' I started to dive more into investing and how to analyze stocks. I had already studied discounted cash flow analysis in my bachelor's degree, back then in the subject of finance with a 3.0 :D. So I built an Excel spreadsheet and started using DCF models to calculate the intrinsic value of shares.

But what exactly should my strategy be when buying shares?

I mean, I already liked getting a dividend from Apple, so did I want to pursue some kind of dividend growth strategy? Should I go for "fast growers" as Peter Lynch would say? But should I then also add so-called "stalwarts" (dividend stocks) and "asset plays" (stocks with very expensive inventories, for example, or investments and cash whose book value is well below their actual value) to my portfolio, as he advises?

"Only buy something that you'd be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for ten years" - W. Buffett

Long-term focus

My investment horizon is over 10 years, so it is important to me to have some kind of predictability of income from the companies I want to buy. It was also important for me to be patient when buying from the outset and to allow some time to pass in order to check whether an investment thesis holds up over quarters.

Quality

I focus exclusively on companies with a leading position in their respective industry, either number 1 or number 2 in the respective sector with a large market share. The important thing here is that growth should be primarily organic. This means that the company should either simply build good, irreplaceable products that customers love and therefore remain loyal to, or simply be so influential that they can simply raise their prices without really losing customers ("pricing power" like Apple)

Concentration

Especially for someone coming from the financial flow school where the more diversified the investment, the better, it was hard to get used to this element. The investor Dev Kantesaria, who has successfully managed Valley Forge Capital for years and whose philosophy is also based on mine, once described this very aptly in an interview: "Why should I invest in my 25th best investment idea?". Accordingly, my goal is only to invest in a maximum of 15 individual stocks - I can't even manage to regularly check more in my free time and check whether the investment thesis still holds up.

Discipline

With the Emerging Markets ETF, I have held a position in my portfolio for several years purely out of conviction that this investment in emerging markets will work out in the long term. I also want to hold my stocks with the same conviction that they will perform well over the long term. In addition, I usually invest in companies when their intrinsic value suggests a margin of safety of at least 15-20%. For example, there was a slump in Alphabet shares in the summer with the unrest that Alphabet might be split up. The share was worth around €150 at the time. All of Alphabet's individual businesses have a combined intrinsic value of €250-300. Also related to this strategy element is that I don't really touch individual sectors that are associated with large research and development costs, for example, unless I really know my way around them. So I avoid biotech companies because I hardly know anything about them, but I invest in tech companies because I work in IT myself.

So I look for companies that are quasi monopolies in their respective industries, with strong market shares and a large moat due to irreplaceable or hard-to-penetrate products and a solid margin with a focus on steady free cash flow growth.

So why do I actually have the Emerging Markets ETF?

I asked myself this question and then promptly took another look at just ETF to see which stocks are actually in it. The top 10 holdings accounted for almost 25%. Why is that important? Some people always complain that the Magnificent 7 have such a high share in the S&P500, also slightly more than 25%, but this is usually due to the fact that companies are often weighted by market capitalization. If you then take a closer look at the top 10, 5 of them are Chinese companies. In general, China accounts for just under 25% of the ETF share. Chinese equities are not bad per se, there are some very good companies. However, the constant intervention of the government is a problem, laws can be changed overnight and a company becomes obsolete, or Mr. Ma, the CEO of Alibaba, simply disappears for a few months after having expressed mild criticism of government officials in a speech. These characteristics go against my strategy as formulated above, which is why the EM ETF was thrown out completely in July.

I then slowly tried to build up my individual positions towards the end of July, primarily $CRM (+0,06%) , $ASML (-0,37%) , $MSFT (+0,18%) , $BKNG (+0,18%) , $GOOG (-0,05%) , $V (+0,08%) and $AMZN (+0,02%) . On August 5 there was a small correction, I think it was due to the "Japanese carry trade". That week I made another big purchase, very happy not to have invested all my freed-up EM capital at once. As a result, I was able to invest heavily in Amazon and Alphabet and make them my largest single positions.

Overall, I am very happy with the decision. I am aware that the last stock market year was a very good one overall and that you shouldn't be deceived by appearances. Things will probably not always go so well. My third-largest single position, in which I was in the red at just under €1500 in the meantime $ASML (-0,37%) is good proof of this. Nevertheless, this company is a virtual monopoly in the chip manufacturing sector and will most likely remain so for the next 10 years. Therefore, I can only shrug my shoulders and look at the reports from the Magnificent 7, which are constantly expanding their data centers and in some cases were unable to meet demand in the last quarters of 2024! But there are already some good articles on this here on getquin. A new addition at the end of '24 is $UBER (+0,05%) I will also be steadily expanding my position there, and the watchlist also includes $MELI (+0,04%) , $MCO (+0,29%) , $SPGI (+0,24%) , $CAKE (+0%) and $AMD (+0,23%) for 2025.

To summarize:

Portfolio performance: 31% vs. S&P500 25%

Invested capital: approx. 22,000 euros

Portfolio value growth: approx. 42,000 euros

Goals for 2025:

• 30k invested (a large crypto cash-out will take place with approx. 20-30k, not included in the portfolio)
• Beat the S&P500
• Increase portfolio value to 150k
• Sell $TTWO (+0,02%) (GTA 6 bet, but by the time this appears it feels like you've already done 10x in other companies)
• expansion $SPGI (+0,24%) and addition of $MCO (+0,29%) (credit rating duopolies)

New GTA 6 trailer - more info soon? $TTWO (+0,02%)

Hey everyone, I'm not sure if this is the perfect place for this post, but I'm sharing it with you anyway! 😊

On one of the latest pictures on "X" you can see a moon again, and it looks like it corresponds to the moon phase of November 22, 2024.

November 22, 2024 could be the date on which we might get information about a new trailer.

I think it's very likely that we'll get new information there because that's exactly what happened with the last trailer in 2023.

What do you think? Could there be something to it or is it just a coincidence? Let me know in the comments!

Take-Two Q3 2024 $TTWO (+0,02%)

Financial performance:

• Revenue: GAAP net revenue for the second quarter of fiscal 2025 was $1.353 billion, an increase of 4% year-over-year.
• Net Loss: GAAP net loss for the second quarter of fiscal 2025 was $366 million, an improvement from a loss of $543.6 million in the same quarter last year.
• EBITDA: Non-GAAP EBITDA for the full year 2025 is expected to be between $282 million and $336 million.

Balance Sheet Overview:

• Assets: Total assets were $13.075 billion as of September 30, 2024, with cash and cash equivalents of $876.1 million.
• Liabilities: Total liabilities amounted to $7.277 billion, including long-term debt of $3.056 billion.
• Shareholders' equity: Shareholders' equity was $5.799 billion.

Revenue sources and structure:

• Principal sources of revenue: The most significant sources of revenue include the games "NBA 2K24", "NBA 2K25" and "Grand Theft Auto Online".
• Operating expenses: Operating expenses amounted to $1.025 billion in the second quarter of fiscal 2025.
• Margin: Gross profit was $727.9 million in Q2 FY2025.

Cash Flow Overview:

• Operating activities: Negative cash flow from operating activities was $(319.4) million for the six months ended September 30, 2024.

Segment information:

• Geographic distribution: U.S. sales accounted for 61% of total sales, while international sales accounted for 39%.
• Platform Performance: Mobile platforms contributed 55% of net sales.

Competitive Position:

• The company benefits from strong franchise brands such as "NBA 2K" and "Grand Theft Auto", demonstrating a stable market position.

Forecasts and management comments:

• Revenue forecast for FY2025: Net revenue is estimated at $5.570 to $5.670 billion.
• Net Bookings: Expected to be $5.550 to $5.650 billion.

Risks and opportunities:

• Risks: Declines in hyper-casual mobile gaming and "Grand Theft Auto Online" could pose challenges.
• Opportunities: Growth in recurring consumer spending, particularly in mobile and "NBA 2K".

Summary of results:

Positives:

Revenue growth: 4% year-over-year increase in GAAP revenue.

Reduced net loss: Significant year-on-year reduction in net loss.

Strong mobile performance: Mobile revenue accounted for a large portion of total revenue.

Positive EBITDA outlook: Expected non-GAAP EBITDA in positive territory.

Solid portfolio: Upcoming releases such as "Grand Theft Auto VI" and "Sid Meier's Civilization VII".

Negative aspects:

Negative cash flow: Negative cash flow from operating activities in the first half of 2024.

High operating expenses: Operating expenses exceeded expectations.

Decline in console revenue: Console revenue decreased compared to the previous year.

Forecasted net loss: Expectation of a net loss for FY2025.

Declining hyper-casual segment: Declines in hyper-casual mobile portfolio.

🐺 CD Projekt: Of sorcerers and cyberpunks - the masters of digital worlds 🏙️

CD Projekt, a company based in Poland, specializes in the development and publication of video games. Founded in 1988, the company began as an IT service provider and has since developed into one of the most renowned names in the global gaming industry.

Historical development

$CDR (-0,08%) The company's origins lie in Optimus S.A., which began as an IT service provider. A decisive milestone in the company's history was the acquisition of game developer CD Projekt RED Sp. z o.o. in 2009, which marked the company's entry into game development and laid the foundation for its current success. In 2012, the company was finally renamed CD Projekt S.A., underlining the transition to a pure game developer.

Business model and core competencies

CD Projekt specializes in the development of story-driven role-playing games and has thus achieved an outstanding position in the industry. The company is particularly known for its ability to create deep, immersive game worlds that are popular with players worldwide. Its best-known productions include the award-winning "The Witcher" series, which has established itself internationally as one of the most successful role-playing games.

In addition to game development, CD Projekt also operates the digital distribution platform GOG.com, which provides an additional source of income and further diversifies the business model.

Future prospects and strategic initiatives

The future of CD Projekt rests on two central pillars: the further development of existing franchises and the creation of new intellectual property rights (IPs). The company is investing heavily in its technology and development processes to make future releases smoother and to further increase the quality of its games.

Another important strategic focus is the expansion of the business into other media. An outstanding example of this is the successful Netflix adaptation of "The Witcher", which has not only significantly increased brand awareness but also opened up new sources of revenue.

Market position and competition

CD Projekt is in direct competition with major game developers such as $TTWO (+0,02%) , $UBI (+0,06%)
$EA (+0,05%) . Nevertheless, the company manages to stand out from the competition thanks to its special focus on high-quality, story-based single-player experiences. This specialization has earned the company a loyal fan base and contributes significantly to its strong market position.

Total Addressable Market (TAM)

The global market for video games is growing continuously and offers CD Projekt enormous potential. With the increasing proliferation of gaming platforms and the growing demand for high-quality and immersive gaming experiences, CD Projekt has excellent opportunities to capitalize on this growing market.

Share performance

TR 14k % since IPO and -2.3% over the last three years.

Development

CD Projekt is currently one of the smaller game publishers in terms of sales. However, this does not mean that it has to stay that way - the potential for future growth is certainly there.

CD Projekt is also currently at the lower end of the growth scale, which is mainly due to the fact that the last major game release was some time ago. However, new titles are already in development. Compared to other game publishers, CD Projekt also has a significantly smaller number of IPs, which has given them less flexibility to date.

In terms of gross margin, CD Projekt is neither at the top nor at the bottom of the rankings. However, the margin, which has fallen recently, should rise again slightly following the release of the new projects. This puts the company in line with the industry average.

In contrast, CD Projekt clearly stands out in terms of its net profit margin. Even after a decline, the company is still twice as good as many of its competitors and thus clearly holds its own at the top.

In terms of earnings per share (EPS), CD Projekt is remarkably consistent in positive territory, while many other manufacturers often slip into negative territory in this respect.

CD Projekt's free cash flow (FCF) has also been positive for some time now, which illustrates the company's forward-looking planning and intelligent management. Despite the continuous investment in the development of new projects, the cash flow remains stable, which speaks for the financial health of the studio.

Another advantage for CD Projekt's shareholders is the almost non-existent stock-based compensation (SBC)

In contrast to many other companies that use buybacks to compensate for dilution effects and bring money to shareholders, CD Projekt can largely do without such measures

The ratio of net debt to EBITDA is also slightly negative at CD Projekt

However, CD Projekt is the most expensive gaming company in terms of EV/EBITDA ratio, reflecting investors' high expectations for future growth and the success of new projects.

Part 2: https://getqu.in/UAF5xR/

Will the release of GTA VI be postponed?

$TTWO (+0,02%)

Journalist and industry insider Jason Schreier stated on X that he had spoken to six employees of developer studio Rockstar Games - none of whom knew anything about a delay to the release. However, Schreier also says that something can always be delayed with a game of this size.

Source:

https://x.com/jasonschreier/status/1833152426989191400

If it turns out to be true that GTA VI is postponed to 2026the Take Two share price could fall. GTA V and RDR2 were also postponed at the time and you certainly don't want to have a scandal like CD Projekt Red with the unfinished Cyberpunk 2077 in December 2020. CDPR fell 81% as a result. Anyone with T2 shares and patience could hold on and buy more if it falls. Will the game be postponed to 2026? What do YOU think? $TTWO (+0,02%)
$EA (+0,05%)
$UBI (+0,06%)
#gta6
#gta5
#gtavi

$TTWO (+0,02%) is not only Rockstar Games (e.g. Grand Theft Auto / Red Dead Redemption), but can also call 2K Games its own.

A few hours ago, the first teaser trailer for the fourth part of the equally popular Mafia series was released. Alongside GTA VI, the Take-Two studios will therefore be releasing another blockbuster next year.

In my opinion, the share is definitely worth a closer look.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=crDUx5suLm4

$TTWO (+0,02%) will be interesting when the release date of GTA VI is fixed and also after the release, the sales figures or what do you think?

A comprehensive introduction to $CDR (-0,08%) - the Polish games company CD Projekt RED - perhaps also interesting for those who have not yet had any contact with the gaming industry.

Disclaimer: I am a co-owner of the company. This is not investment advice. Rather, I invite you to give your opinion on the company and the analysis. For me, this is the first written company analysis of this scope. More will be published in the future. I am therefore looking forward to your feedback.

Here is the short version and key statements:

• $CDR (-0,08%) is a Polish games company, which became known in particular for the games Witcher III and Cyberpunk 2077.
• Market value: PLN 11.44 billion; P/E ratio: x14.6; P/E ratio: x27.5; EPS: PLN 4.164, very low debt ratio, high net liquidity.
• Many game releases are expected in the next few years, which in my opinion are not priced into the share price.

I. The gaming market in general

Gaming has long since ceased to be a niche hobby reserved for socially distant nerds and has become a daily companion for billions of people [1], including me. With the rapidly growing number of players, the market for video games is also growing. Sales are expected to grow by 45% by 2027.[2] These figures should be treated with caution. The fact is that "gaming" is becoming increasingly socially acceptable and acceptance and sales potential are growing steadily. For this reason, more and more established companies are taking an interest in this market. $AMZN (+0,02%) develops games, especially for cloud gaming. $MSFT (+0,18%) has been involved for a long time and has become a gaming giant, particularly through the incorporation of Minecraft and the takeover of Activision Blizzard. It also$NFLX (+0%) also offers games and $DIS (+0,05%) now wants to invest 1.5 billion in Epic Games, the creators of Fortnite, for example.

II Introduction to the company

→ History

Nevertheless, the gaming market has so far been dominated by smaller players who have been adding value to their names with excellent games for years. One of these companies is CD Projekt Red.

Still a game distributor in the 90s, CD Projekt RED was officially founded in 2002 and developed its first game, "The Witcher". The two CEOs have raised the company since 1994 and are also both the largest shareholders. They are characterized by open, transparent and direct communication.

"The Witcher" is based on the books by Andrzej Sapkowski, which were already very well known in Poland. The game and its two sequels helped to make the stories of the witcher Geralt of Riva internationally known.[3] Witcher III in particular brought outstanding success and fame, with over 50 million copies sold, making it one of the most successful games in the world.[4]

→ The cyberpunk disaster

Cyberpunk 2077 was released in December 2020. An estimated 13 million licenses were sold at release. The most successful release of a game ever.[5] However, the game for the PC was in an unfinished state, as evidenced by many bugs, i.e. errors in the programming. The version for PS4 and X-Box was disastrous, downright unplayable, so that $6758 (-0,84%) (Sony) stopped offering the game for sale for several months.

Unfortunately, it has become relatively normal for games to have a few bugs (errors) on release, which are then quickly fixed in a so-called hotfix. Cyberpunk, however, had a new quality in its bugs, which contradicted the generally very good image of the company. The result was a lot of negative publicity, bug compilations and a huge shitstorm. In addition to the many bugs, there were complaints that many of the announced game elements were not implemented.

A short personal interjection: A few of my friends played Cyberpunk on PC at the time and were very satisfied. Of course there were bugs, but they didn't really bother them. The gaming experience was still uniquely exhilarating.

Remarkable is the decision of the company management to devote considerable human and financial resources over the next 3 years to completing the game in the quality it deserves. CD Projekt RED didn't just limit itself to fixing the bugs, but also intervened extensively in the game after the fact in order to live up to expectations. Whether they have succeeded is a matter of opinion. The game ratings on Steam [6] (probably the most meaningful) and playtest clearly underline that the restoration was a complete success. As of October 2023, the game has now sold 25 million copies[5].

The work was completed with a DLC, an additional downloadable content that traditionally expands the game with its own story, perhaps even a game world, and is purchased separately.

CD Projekt RED is known for its outstanding Witcher III game expansions, which often have the quality of a fully-fledged game in their own right. The Cyberpunk DLC, Phantom Liberty, also follows in this tradition. Within a very short time of the expansion's release on 26.09.2023, 5 million copies had already been sold[7].

→ Cooperation with Netflix

The first season of The Witcher was released on Netflix in 2019. The game has benefited greatly indirectly. Sales and average player numbers rose sharply after 2019. This trend was supported by the pandemic.

For completeness, it should be mentioned that the 4th season of the series will be released soon. The main actor, Henry Cavill, who himself is known as a passionate player of Witcher III, left the production amid criticism of the falsification of the book and game template and poor character portrayal.

The animated series "Edgerunners", set in the cyberpunk universe, has also been available on Netflix since September 2022. The company benefits directly from license fees, but especially indirectly from the series' excellent reputation. The game was not forgotten thanks to the series and reached a large audience. This led to a renewed (small) hype around the game, this time under much better conditions, as the game was in a better condition.

→ Outlook for the coming years

Back in October 2022, CD Projekt RED provided an insight into which games can be expected in the future, without giving specific dates. It was also announced that the in-house engine (key software for game development) will be discontinued and the Unreal Engine 5 from Epic Games will be used instead.

Three new games from the "Witcher universe" were announced, codenamed Polaris 1-3.

At the same time, the successful Witcher title is to undergo a "remake". This means that the 2007 game will be brought up to date with the latest technology (especially the graphical possibilities) and new, smaller game expansions will also be possible. The company is cooperating with Studio Fool's Theory, a renowned game studio for RPGs.

In cooperation with the development studio "The Molasses Flood", another game (Project Sirius) is being produced in the Witcher universe, which should be attractive to a broad market and will not necessarily have any overlap with the previous games and Polaris.

A new game in the cyberpunk universe is expected under the name "Orion".

Finally, a completely new brand is also being worked on, which will be integrated alongside Witcher and Cyberpunk.

In total, 5 new, in-house AAA games are planned, a remake and a previously unknown project in cooperation with another studio.

The completion of Cyberpunk has been completed. More than 400 people have been working on the new Witcher game Polaris 1 since fall 2023. 500 will be working on it in 2024.

III What makes the company so special?

CD Projekt Red is known for its style of storytelling, atmospheric game world and sophisticated character profiles. This creates an intense immersion. The characters are deep and versatile. The game world reacts to you and does not remain a mere backdrop. Stories are told that you won't forget for the rest of your life. A living book, a playable movie.

Comprehensive updates and extensive DLCs improve the gaming experience. The company also supports "modding", i.e. third parties can develop their own software for the game and offer it as a program. Players now have the opportunity to make subjective improvements to the game from a never-ending number of modification options. Some mods improve the graphics, while others offer more freedom in character design or gameplay. There are no limits. This allows a long-lasting player base to be maintained, with self-replicating content and updates. This also explains why Witcher III experienced a new renaissance in June 2019, four years after its release, with sales figures increasing by 150% by May 2023.

The company thinks long-term. The development time of a completely new game can take over 10 years. The management has actively decided to develop Cyberpunk as an extremely technically demanding game in order to be able to keep up visually in 5 years' time. In particular, dubbing in Asian languages is intended to further develop the huge market that has so far been rather untouched by Western games companies. Takeover rumors are consistently ruled out. The switch to the Unreal Engine, probably the most advanced game engine currently available, is also evidence of long-term planning.

IV. Key figures

Now to the essentials. The figures are from MarketScreener [8] and are given in PLN; we will limit ourselves to a small selection of figures.

Current share price: 114.6

Market value: 11.44 billion

Sales forecast 2023: 782 million (KUV: x14.6)

Profit expectation 2023: 423m (P/E x 27.5; net margin: 36.23%, profitability since 2015)

EPS: 4.164

Free cash flow: 295 million

Net liquidity: 1.022 bn (with a negligible debt ratio from current liabilities)

The dividend per share amounted to PLN 5 in 2020 and 2021, but was canceled for 2022 and will probably amount to PLN 0.9950 in 2023. You see, negligible for now.

These figures are not very meaningful. The figures have a high variance, as they are determined in particular by the Cyberpunk release and Disaster. In this respect, annual periods must be analyzed. A DCF valuation is also difficult under these conditions. If you are still interested, I recommend AlphaSpread [9] to take a closer look at a DCF valuation or other figures. I could not recognize a red flag.

V. Relevant assumptions

Any analysis is only as good as the assumptions on which it is based.

Personally, I am convinced that CD Projekt Red has learned from the Cyberpunk disaster and that the many updates and DLC have restored the company's reputation. If this assumption turns out to be wrong, i.e. a new game is released in an equally disastrous state, my investment case will be destroyed. My conviction is based on the company's transparent communication and admission of its own mistakes. Here is an interesting article on how Cyberpunk has changed the company. [10] The first test was the release of the Cyberpunk DLC. I am very pleased to see what an excellent state the content-rich game extension is in.

The future development of the Witcher Netflix series will only have a minor impact on the success of future Witcher games. Of course, the brand as a whole benefits from a good series. But the brand exists even without good cross-promo. What's more, the Witcher universe is already familiar to most Netflix users. The quality of the games speaks for itself, as does the company's regained reputation. In addition, a new book in the series is expected in the very near future. This cannot harm the game universe.

The future games can follow in the footsteps of their predecessors. Here I have deliberately decided to deviate from my convictions and paint a pessimistic picture. I have based my sales and revenue dynamics on the years 2020-2023 and calculated them individually for each main game. No increase in sales per game, ignoring the fact that Cyberpunk and Witcher III will continue to sell and factoring in time- and capital-intensive bug fixes. I treat the Witcher remake and Project Sirius as a very small revenue driver, only about 30% as profitable as the main games. In other words, a worst-case scenario. I have also reduced the net margin to 25% (10-25% less than previous years) for my assumption to account for a possible discount from using the new engine.

I assume that a game will be released annually from 2026. A postponement of one year is possible, but irrelevant for my investment case, as there is already enough net liquidity to operate for a few years without debt.

VI Analysis

→ Potential

Taking the current market value into account, the P/E ratio in 2031 would be around 2 and the P/E ratio 7.2. As I said, this is a conservative calculation. If you compare these figures with $TTWO (+0,02%) or $UBI (+0,06%) companies with a similar income structure and size, this results in a massive undervaluation. A steady decline in sales is to be expected in 2024 and 2025. After that, however, a new era will begin for the company. The possibility that CD Projekt Red will present us with a large number of high-quality games until 2031 is not priced in. The opportunity exists for a sustained low entry level. I can also well imagine that the dividend will be increased again from 2026 as profits rise, as was the case in 2019 and 2020 before the Cyberpunk release.

Anyone who has actually read this far will receive a special piece of additional information that I believe is not yet taken into account in other analyses. CD Projekt RED has announced an AGM vote on an "incentive program" for staff and management.[11] A large part of the incentives consists of subscription rights for shares if a profit target of 2023-2026 is achieved. Accordingly, a profit of PLN 2,000 million must be made within these 4 years in order to trigger the option. This figure significantly exceeds previous analyst estimates.

I also took a look at the average player numbers for Cyberpunk and Witcher III and tried to correlate them with sales. The correlation is weak, but indicates that the sales of Cyberpunk as a Collector's Edition and the separate DLC for Q4 are underestimated. The figures will be published on 28.03.

→ Risk

The company has yet to prove that it can manage many game developments simultaneously. The current focus is clearly on Polaris I. Smaller projects are constantly being evaluated and the workforce adapted to their importance. The quarterly reports are recommended here, as they clearly show who is currently working on what. [12]

It will be a long time, at least 2 years, before a new game can be expected. Until then, the share price will probably react hypersensitively to any positive or negative news. I think a price rally will follow from the moment new information is released, such as a trailer. This was also the case in August 2018 after the trailer for Cyberpunk, which caused the share price to rise by 35% in just a few days. Until then, the chart will probably continue to move sideways. PLN 80, PLN 100 and PLN 120 initially appear to be strong barriers.

The lead quest designer of Witcher III has left CD Projekt and founded his own games company with other ex-employees. This is not unusual in the industry and also for CD Projekt. What is unusual is that CD Projekt RED often works together with these new companies. In this respect, these departures are probably open to interpretation.

There have also often been negative reports about crunch times, i.e. the time immediately before the release of a game, when it is de facto assumed that staff will work overtime. Unfortunately, this is not unusual for games companies. At least we keep hearing that CD Projekt RED stands out positively in this environment thanks to its typical accommodating approach (compensation programs, vacation compensation, etc.).

The analysts' estimates are negative. According to my research, there has been caution so far, as no concrete information on the new games is available.

My assumptions may be misguided. This is where I see the main risk. That's why I'm asking you. Which assumption do you disagree with? Have I overlooked something? What would you attach more importance to when analyzing the company?

Thank you very much for your time, I wish you successful investing!

Sources:

[1] https://explodingtopics.com/blog/number-of-gamers

[2] https://www.statista.com/outlook/dmo/digital-media/video-games/worldwide#revenue

[3] https://www.cdprojekt.com/en/capital-group/history/

[4] https://www.forbes.com/sites/paultassi/2023/05/30/the-witcher-3-has-become-the-9th-or-3rd-best-selling-game-in-history/

[5] https://www.statista.com/statistics/1305749/cyberpunk-2077-sales-worldwide/#:~:text=Cyberpunk%202077%20cumulative%20units%20sold%20worldwide%202023&text=It%20is%20estimated%20that%20the,most%20successful%20game%20launches%20ever.

[6] https://store.steampowered.com/app/1091500/Cyberpunk_2077/

[7] https://www.forbes.com/sites/paultassi/2024/01/05/cyberpunk-2077-phantom-liberty-reveals-big-sales-and-high-attach-rates/?sh=75c7f9512c67

[8] https://de.marketscreener.com/kurs/aktie/CD-PROJEKT-S-A-9933587/

[9] https://www.alphaspread.com/security/otc/otgly/solvency

[10] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kBnPNwv6C0E

[11] https://www.cdprojekt.com/en/wp-content/uploads-en/2024/01/egm-guide-february-2024.pdf S. 7

[12] https://www.cdprojekt.com/en/investors/