Postos
69Podcast episode 78: "Buy High. Sell Low."
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00:00:00 Market overview
00:12:40 Palo Alto Networks $PANW (-3,05%)
$CRWD (-6,19%)
00:29:00 Nebius Group $NBIS (-13,18%)$TEM
00:52:00 Coinbase & Bitcoin $COIN (-7,3%)
$BTC (+0,31%)
01:17:00 Election programs: The Left, BSW, Volt
Spotify $SPOT (-3,66%)
https://open.spotify.com/episode/5u7nL29RbT9cZrVDZ9ATv0?si=0gSaCyjvTBKwHvkcFkVFlw
YouTube $GOOGL (-2,28%)
$GOOG (-2,32%)
Apple Podcast $AAPL (+0,26%)
🔹 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.81 (Est. $0.85) 🔴
🔹 Revenue: $2.30B (Est. $2.502B) 🔴; UP +14% YoY
🔹 Next-Generation Security ARR: $4.8B; UP +37% YoY
🔹 RPO: $13.0B; UP +21% YoY
Q3 Guidance:
🔹 Revenue: $2.26B - $2.29B (Est. $2.271B) 🟡; UP +14% to +15% YoY
🔹 Next-Generation Security ARR: $5.03B - $5.08B; UP +33% to +34% YoY
🔹 RPO: $13.5B - $13.6B; UP +19% to +20% YoY
🔹 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.76 - $0.77 (Est. $0.76) 🟡
FY25 Guidance:
🔹 Non-GAAP EPS: $3.18 - $3.24 (Est. $3.17) 🟡
🔹 Revenue: $9.14B - $9.19B (Est. $9.148B) 🟡; UP +14% YoY
🔹 Next-Generation Security ARR: $5.52B - $5.57B; UP +31% to +32% YoY
🔹 Non-GAAP Operating Margin: 28.0% - 28.5%
Segment Performance (Q2 FY25):
🔹 Product Revenue: $421.5M; UP +7.9% YoY
🔹 Subscription and Support Revenue: $1.84B; UP +15.8% YoY
Key Operational Metrics:
🔹 Total Gross Margin: 73.5%; Flat YoY
🔹 Operating Income (Non-GAAP): $526.9M; UP +96% YoY
🔹 Operating Margin (Non-GAAP): 28.0%; UP +10pp YoY
Strategic Updates:
🔸 Announced appointments of Helle Thorning-Schmidt (former PM of Denmark) and Ralph Hamers (former CEO of UBS Group AG) to the Board of Directors.
🔸 Strength in AI-driven security solutions continues to drive Next-Generation Security platform adoption.
Management Commentary:
🔸 CEO Nikesh Arora: "Our Q2 performance highlights strong growth in Next-Generation Security and demonstrates the confidence customers place in our platforms. We remain steadfast in our 2030 plans, including achieving our $15B NGS ARR goal."
🔸 CFO Dipak Golechha: "With the benefits of scale and AI-related efficiency initiatives, we delivered profitable growth. We are raising FY25 operating margin and EPS guidance in line with these results."
Next week won't be boring either 🫡
There's something for everyone 😁
What numbers are you looking forward to? 🧐
$MCD (+0,5%)
$VRTX (+0,82%)
$KO (+2,3%)
$SPGI (-0,29%)
$VRT (-7,34%)
$PANW (-3,05%)
$CVS (-2,18%)
$MEDP (-0,94%)
$ACLS (-1,73%)
$THC (-4,21%)
$TTD (-4,67%)
$CSCO (-0,55%)
$APP (-6,81%)
$HOOD (-7,16%)
$DE (-2,08%)
$AMAT (-1,89%)
$ABNB (-5,19%)
Due to my own inattention or incompetence, I will liquidate the positions except for gold and BTC.
Why? I only realized today that this taxation of unrealized gains on ETFs is actually coming into force.
In order to replicate the performance of Info Tech and Defense as closely as possible (I still want to exclude Mag 7 and the savings plan options also limit me slightly), I am betting on these stocks (all are equally weighted):
My ETF portfolio
Only completed this month, so the gains and losses are perhaps a little strange.
The Information Tech ETF serves to invest as focused as possible in all the compounders, I would generally prefer the equal weight variant, but unfortunately it is not yet available in Europe as far as I know. The VanEck ETF is intended to protect the portfolio somewhat from geopolitical risks, and the companies are also quite interesting and all have the state as a major customer, either directly or indirectly, which I think is a very good addition. Weighting is around 55% at the beginning and will be rebalanced as soon as the equities exceed the 80-85% threshold. In this way, I hope to take as much upside as possible and leave the equity area largely unhindered.
The 22% weighting is based on the post from dear @Epi regarding gold.
Like gold, the combination of bonds is intended to take out some volatility and provide an alternative cash position. However, I am considering possibly exchanging the 1-3 year bonds for BTC.
Hi folks,
I would like to add a cybersecurity share to my portfolio this year. Since I'm sure some people are already invested here and I'm not yet familiar with the market (apart from the growth potential), I'd be interested in your opinion.
My favorite at first glance would probably be Palo Alto, even if I first have to read up on why there was such a sharp drop in profits. Which player would be your pick and why?
$PANW (-3,05%) has recently made an acquisition to enter the Security Information and Event Management, or SIEM, market category and go after large legacy vendors in that space. Management views SIEM as a $30 billion opportunity.
The company's platformization strategy and recent SIEM-focused acquisition are expected to fast-track its path to a $15 billion ARR target.
More customers turn from single-point solutions to platformization. This serves as a strength for $PANW (-3,05%) .
$PANW (-3,05%) 's platformization strategy is driving significant growth, with a notable shift from single-point solutions to total platform adoption, bolstering margins through customer expansion.
$PANW (-3,05%) | Palo Alto Networks Q1 Earnings Highlights:
🔹 Revenue: $2.1B (Est. $2.12B) 🟡; UP +14% YoY
🔹 Product Revenue: $353.8M (Est. $341.2M) 🟢
🔹 Services Revenue: $1.785B (Est. $1.78B) 🟢
🔹 NGS ARR: $4.5B (Est. $4.37B) 🟢; UP +40% YoY
🔹 RPO: $12.6B (Est. $12.49B) 🟢; UP +20% YoY
FY25 Guidance:
🔹 Revenue: $9.12B–$9.17B (Est. $9.10B–$9.15B) 🟡; Growth +14% YoY
🔹 NGS ARR: $5.52B–$5.57B; UP +31–32% YoY
🔹 Non-GAAP Operating Margin: 27.5%–28.0% (Est. 27.5–28.0%) 🟡
🔹 Non-GAAP EPS: $6.26–$6.39 (Est. $6.18–$6.31) 🟡
🔹 Adjusted Free Cash Flow Margin: 37–38%
Q2 Guidance:
🔹 Revenue: $2.22B–$2.25B (Est. $2.23B) 🟡; Growth +12–14% YoY
🔹 NGS ARR: $4.70B–$4.75B (Est. $4.64B) 🟢
🔹 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.54–$1.56 (Est. $1.55) 🟡
🔹 RPO: $12.9B–$13.0B (Est. $13.0B) 🟡
Q1 Profitability Metrics:
🔹 Non-GAAP Gross Margin: 77.5% (Est. 77.5%) 🟡
🔹 Non-GAAP Operating Margin: 28.8% (Est. 27.7%) 🟢
🔹 Non-GAAP Net Income: $544.9M (Est. $1.48/share; $1.56/share actual) 🟢
🔹 Free Cash Flow: $1.46B (Est. $1.46B) 🟡
Key Highlights:
🔹 GAAP Net Income: $350.7M; UP +81% YoY
🔹 GAAP EPS: $0.99 (UP from $0.56 YoY)
🔹 Stock Split: Announced a 2-for-1 forward stock split effective December 13, 2024.
CEO Commentary:
🔸 "Our Q1 results reinforced our conviction in our differentiated platformization strategy," said Nikesh Arora, Chairman and CEO. "We see a growing market realization that platformization is the game changer that will solve security and enable better AI outcomes."
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