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Sep 30 / EA – Smart Move, No Doubt
Press X to Cash Out
Electronic Arts just rage-quit the stock market. The $55 billion buyout by a consortium led by Silver Lake and Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund puts an end to EA’s run as a public company and calms developers who were worried about what they were going to say at the next earnings call about programming progress or innovation in FIFA. Shareholders are getting $210 per share in cash, about a 25% premium to Friday’s close, according to the WSJ. Nice payout. But it’s also a curious move: EA is cashing in while its stock was finally gaining altitude again, mostly thanks to one thing — hype around Battlefield 6. We all know that FIFA is not going to change and people are still willing to pay the $100 a year for updated player ratings and incremental graphical changes. Some, apparently, even celebrated the integration of women’s football as a win.
And there’s the catch. Gaming stocks live and die by the hit cycle. With a blockbuster, your stock goes through the roof, but with a flop, you’re scraping it off the floor. EA knows this game all too well: the last two Battlefield titles misfired so badly they made critics and gamers alike wonder if the franchise had lost its soul. Now Battlefield 6 has Wall Street buzzing, with analysts at Jefferies and Citi predicting it’ll surpass expectations. But timing is everything. GTA VI is coming next May, and let’s be real — it will be the entertainment equivalent of a gigantic vacuum cleaner, sucking up player engagement, attention, and wallets. Rockstar’s highly anticipated game is arguably the grandest release since its predecessor GTA V. Even if Battlefield 6 lands well, EA could see its moment of glory vanish the second Rockstar’s new chaos simulator drops.
That’s the structural problem of being a public gaming company. You’re hostage to release calendars, critic reviews, and the fickle attention spans of millions of gamers. Even the strongest franchises wobble: just earlier this year, FIFA, or whatever they call it now, posted a dip in engagement, and the stock suffered its worst single-day drop in 17 years. That’s not “oops, missed a quarter.” That’s “oops, your entire business model is vulnerable because Ronaldo’s sweat didn’t look real enough on the digital pitch.”
The irony? EA has exactly what Wall Street usually loves: scale, sticky franchises, and a proven microtransaction machine that spits out recurring revenue like a slot machine. But the games business has transitioned into fewer, bigger bets that need to hit and sustain. The industry’s stocks don’t rise continually, gradually over time; they either jump or fall by 50% on quarterly earnings and game releases. Besides, you can’t just launch and move on. You need engagement loops, battle passes, advertising, and DLC to milk the cow long after launch day. Investors love that when it works, but as soon as the model shows some cracks the stock is doomed – at least until the next announcement.
So EA took the sure thing. $55 billion locked in now is better than gambling on whether Battlefield 6 can stand tall once Rockstar’s wrecking ball arrives. Activision Blizzard sold itself to Microsoft under duress and drama. EA is selling itself while on an upswing — essentially cashing out at the peak rather than waiting for the demise.
Wall Street will whine about the price (some thought EA could achieve an even higher valuation), but the logic is simple: gaming is a hit-driven business with the variance of a slot machine. If you’re management, why keep rolling the dice in the casino when someone offers you to roll until you win in their private desert complex with very little outside pressure?
Is this a testament to what the market has become: a short-sighted betting machine, more focused on cheap headlines rather than underlying structure? Or was the offer just too good to pass on?
One thing is clear: This is “game over” for EA’s stock market story.
Quantum computer test: HSBC opens the door to a new financial market era
HSBC $HSBA (+0,41%) was the first bank in the world to use a quantum computer in the financial market - a breakthrough that is likely to accelerate the race for technology.
With the most powerful quantum processor to date, Heron from IBM $IBM (+0,05%) the major British bank has improved the prediction of the price at which a bond will be traded by 34 percent.
The basis for this was an anonymized data set of European bond deals, as the bank announced on Thursday (25.9.). This could significantly increase the efficiency of the market.
The experiment is considered a milestone because real transactions were included on a large scale for the first time. Until now, the technology was mainly limited to universities and specialized tech companies.
Companies such as Google's parent company Alphabet $GOOGL (-0,07%)IBM and Microsoft $MSFT (+0,01%) are already investing billions of dollars in quantum research, but the road to everyday applications remains long.
》No live trade《
HSBC's attempt was aimed at over-the-counter trading, in which transactions are carried out directly between two parties - without an exchange or broker. Philip Intallura, Head of Quantum Technology at HSBC, emphasizes that although it was not a live trade, it was very much a demonstration on a real production scale. "We firmly believe that we are on the cusp of a new era of computer technology in financial services - and not just in the distant future," says Intallura.
While technology companies are setting the pace in terms of development, banks such as JP Morgan Chase $JPM (+0,23%)Goldman Sachs $GS (+0,14%)Citigroup $C (+0,09%) and HSBC are also investing heavily in quantum projects.
Management consultancies McKinsey and KPMG expect far-reaching benefits: better risk management, optimized portfolios, more accurate predictions of asset prices and sharper fraud detection.
》Faster with physics《
The foundation of quantum computers is physics itself. Unlike conventional computers, they do not work step by step, but in parallel. This allows extremely complex problems to be solved very quickly.
Alphabet showed just how big the leap is at the end of last year: the quantum processor Willow solved a problem in five minutes that even the most powerful supercomputers since the beginning of the universe would have calculated - and not come up with the result.
Specialized AI algorithms - PKSHA Technology
Founded in 2012 by researchers and engineers from the high-end IT sector, the Japanese company PKSHA Technology $3993 (+3,7%) has since developed into an expert in AI algorithms. Since last year, they have also been largely accessible in this country with their entry into the Prime Market of the Tokyo Stock Exchange.
PKSHA Technology is a specialized AI company with the overarching goal of driving the "co-evolution of humans and software" by developing and implementing cutting-edge algorithm solutions into society. In contrast to large US companies, the focus here is also particularly on social acceptance and social benefit, as this is seen as the basis for sustainable economic success.
The company has focused on the development and application of artificial intelligence (AI), particularly in the areas of natural language processing (NLP) and predictive algorithms for the automation of specific business processes. Instead of competing directly for general AI models with global hyperscalers (such as Google $GOOG (-0,05%) or Microsoft $MSFT (+0,01%)), PKSHA focuses on the vertical integration of AI solutions, for example in customer service, communication and data analysis.
Its business activities are divided into three areas:
1. R&D (Research & Development) as the technological basis,
2. AI Solution for the provision of customized AI systems and
3. AI SaaS (Software as a Service) for scalable standard products such as chatbots, voicebots and intelligent FAQ systems. With these high-revenue SaaS solutions, PKSHA is considered the market leader in Japan.
The clear market focus is historically and primarily on the Japanese corporate market, where PKSHA already serves over 4,330 customers and has established itself as a leading provider of enterprise AI. Major customers include Itochu $8001 (+0,07%), Mitsui Fudosan $8801 (+0,28%) and Microsoft Japan $MSFT (+0,01%). A strong position in the Japanese market will serve as a basis for future expansion.
The company's decisive competitive advantage results from the direct link between research and commercial application. The in-house research department "PKSHA ReSearch" develops proprietary, application-specific algorithms that can be quickly converted into scalable products. These are often developed in collaboration with leading research institutes and universities. The management demonstrates an extremely high willingness to innovate by consistently prioritizing R&D investments. This creates a technological moat, which is further strengthened by very high switching costs and data network effects among customers. Thanks to this strategy, the company is well positioned to establish itself as a leading player in its segment and beyond in the long term.
Key financial data:
Market capitalization (current): € 695 million
Turnover (2025e): approx. € 122 million
Profit (2025e): approx. € 17.5 million
P/E ratio (current): approx. 38
P/E ratio (2028e): approx. 22
Net cash position (current): approx. € 69 million
Market capitalization (forecast 2035): € 10-65 billion (based on own AI-supported analysis of the company and the overall market)
-> High multiplication potential
In my opinion a real hidden gem. What do you think of the company? Did you know PKSHA Technology before?
(Founder Uenoyama Katsuya)
Thank you
Sep 24 / ASML – The Quiet Giant Wakes Up
The Market Finally Gets It? What a Re-Rating
ASML has been in both my portfolios since the very beginning, and I even published a comprehensive deep dive on the company earlier this year. For months, nothing happened – the stock was flat through the first half of 2024, and to many it probably looked boring.
Some even dared to question ASML’s market position amid the tariff crisis and comparatively “weak” earnings. But then things took a turn, and suddenly the market decided to pay attention. Shares are up almost 40% since the start of August. That’s not a small move for a company of this size. People love talking about Google’s resurgence, but many forget that ASML outperformed the giant in this period.
The obvious question to ask is: “what changed?” Did ASML suddenly reinvent semis? No. The story is exactly the same as before. The company holds a de facto monopoly in EUV lithography, the most important foundational technology for advanced semiconductors. If you want to build cutting-edge chips, you need ASML – no exceptions. That hasn’t changed in years, and won’t change anytime soon. As pointed out in my analysis, competitors, if any, are light-years behind. You can barely imagine a healthier position to be in. “The AI revolution hinges on Nvidia.” Yes, but don’t forget about ASML. Without them and their technology, all these advanced fantasies are nothing more than that: dreams. ASML is the backbone of this mega trend, and the market, apparently, has made this realization.
Maybe the real shift is in perception. For a long time, investors treated ASML like just another cyclical chip equipment play, ignoring the power of its monopoly. With a forward P/E around 30–35, the stock is actually still cheap historically and compared to other tech monopolies. Microsoft, Nvidia, even Salesforce – all command far higher multiples despite not holding quite the same chokehold on their industry.
So the question is whether the market has finally woken up to what ASML really is: not just another semiconductor stock, but the single most important supplier in the global chip arms race. The recent run looks like the market re-rating ASML closer to where it belongs. Something I am betting on with quite a lot of my holdings: whether it’s Salesforce, Adobe, or Fiserv, I believe markets misjudge the power of these leaders. Now one of them is finally getting close to a fair price.
For me, nothing changes. I continue to hold, as I always have. This is one of those rare “set and forget” positions, where the only real risk is if China has cooked something up in a secret lab – and even then, ASML would still dominate the Western market. You can bet that Trump wouldn’t allow Chinese chips to power “his” AI race. ASML is simply too important to ignore.
$ASML (-0,77%)
$ASML (-0,91%)
$NVDA (+0,45%)
$MSFT (+0,01%)
$CRM (+0,26%)
I can't and won't stop buying it. The best company in the semiconductor sector imo
IREN - Secured Power Advantage
$IREN (+2,39%)
$META (+0,32%)
$MSFT (+0,01%)
$NBIS (+1,4%)
$EQIX (+0,76%)
$DLR (+1,41%)
ein toller Beitrag von $IREN (+2,39%) auf x (Jim Liu) weshalb ich ihn hier teilen möchte, wirklich sehr gut geschrieben.
A fair skeptical question I’ve been asked on $IREN (+2,39%) is: If $IREN (+2,39%) overplays their hand, could hyperscalers can simply say, “Forget it, we’ll build ourselves.”? The answer is that hyperscalers are definitely acquiring power and building datacenters themselves but that’s still not enough; I will go into detail.
Projections for power shortfalls by 2030, 2035 are huge but seem far into the future, so let’s use 2028: by 2028 there will be a 36GW shortfall (1) (sources provided by number in comments). A general shortfall number seems hand wavy so let’s look at what this shortfall actually means.
1. The first misunderstanding is the assumption that if the all the tech CEOs and US government is aware about this problem then US will fix the shortfall within 1-2 years, after all the US is still the most powerful nation on earth. Well the upper bound for quickly building infrastructure is China. China is adding 290 GW to their grid in 2025 (2). 290 GW is a massive number right? Who needs 3GW from $IREN (+2,39%) when China can add 290 GWs in one year? Well 290 GWs is peak generation - sources like window, solar are intermittent and cannot sustain peak capacity and batteries only smooth out the power curve, not generate more power. With batteries and base generation to smooth it out and accounting for transmission losses, the effective continuous load supplied will be 22% of the peak generation or to 65GW (3). Now 65GW is still alot, so what’s the deal with 3GW? Well you see, the 65GW that came out in 2025 was planned in China’s 14th 5-year plan (4). Although China’s 14th 5-year plan was announced in 2021, the work needed to meet deadlines started in 2017/2018. Now this 65GW was due to their high projections in heavy industry and manufacturing, EVs, air conditioning, etc. China is the country to over builds infrastructure to maintain employment numbers, this is where high speed rail operates at a loss and prime real estate in Tain Fu District Guangzhou to fall 40% due to overbuild. However, in 2018, China never accounted for AI HPC. Even with manufacturing demand and EV adoption slower lower than projections and extra GW allocated to AI HPC, China still faces a shortfall of power for AI HPC (5). Let’s face it, the US builds infrastructure much slower than China, this is not a 2-3 year solvable problem. Even if small nuclear reactors ($OKLO ) first come out in 2028, it will take at least 1-2 years for them to ramp up to fully supply the shortfall.
2. Hyperscalers will never put their GB300s on the Chinese grid for obvious reasons. The 36GW shortfall is for the American grid. So what’s happening in North America? Hyperscalers are trying some uncertain projects like $MSFT (+0,01%) Three Mile Island restart scheduled for 2028 (6) and small modular reactors. Now geeze, $MSFT (+0,01%) has plenty of time until 2028, if one of it’s best plans to get more power in 2028 is to restart Three Mile Island, what kind of plans does it have for 2026 or 2027? $NBIS (+1,4%) 300MW of IaaS is not going to be enough to fulfill demand. You hear that Meta is getting very serious about its AI ambitions. It announce it’s 1GW Ohio DC called Prometheus. Closer inspections shows that the 1GW DC will be powered by Two 200MW natural gas facilities coming up in Q3 2026 and 440MW of solar (7). Solar has a capacity factor of 18%. Meta’s 1GW Hyperion DC has ~480MW of power at this time. You see the short fall? $META (+0,32%) announces it’s 2027 Hyperion DC to have 1.5GW IT Load (2.26GW of generation to get 1.5GW of IT Load), but upon closer inspection the first two gas turbines are expected to come online in 2028 and the third is expected to come online 2029 (8). Now 2028 is actually pretty fast for 2.26GW, how did Meta even secure the deal? It’s paying 3.2B extra for the gas turbines that will be to be owned by Entergy (9) on top of paying all the regular costs for the DC power. If $META (+0,32%) is paying 3.2B of extra cost for 2.26GW in 2028/2029, how much would 2.2GW in 2026 (Childress + SW1) and 3GW by 2027 for $IREN (+2,39%) be? With With xAI’s 1GW Colossus 2 is coming out in 2026, is Meta going pray that it can fill in the power gap for it’s Prometheus, or chill out until late 2028 when Hyperion is ready?
3. In NA, there were $64 billion of DC blocked or delayed in 2024/2025 (10) because the grid simply doesn’t support that much and people don’t want their electricity bills going up. So that’s pushing GPUs DC’s to two hot areas: energy abundant areas like West Texas and behind the grid gas turbines. West Texas is under Ercot and BTC miners taken all the early power capacity area since 2017 and have queue up the power pipeline to 2030. Crusoe and Lancium contracted out its power to Oracle and OpenAI. Everyone else is bragging about their power pipeline in West Texas but there’s not enough power as Ercot will deny over half of power pipelines between now and 2030 (11). IREN does not disclose its power pipeline rumored to be 5-6GW (12) and only public announces the 3GW with interconnect agreements.
4. Now what about gas turbines behind the meter? Isn’t that what xAI did for Colossus 1/2 and what DataOne did for $NBIS (+1,4%) ? Well gas turbines have a wait time of 5-7 years (13). Colossus took their gas turbine from abroad, disassembled it and then is rebuilding it in Mississippi (14). I love $TSLA (+1,02%) mission but let’s be real here: Europe/Japan/China aren’t in excess of power plants and Elon conveniently omitted where the gas turbines came from: it probably came from a 2nd/3rd world country who sold out their infrastructure with the byproduct being their people’s suffering. This isn’t really scalable. DataOne is a spin out as BSO’s GPU data center division who have been in the datacenter business since 2024. DataOne/BSO like $IREN (+2,39%) had the foresight to procure long lead-time items.
5. So now the question is: what does it mean for $IREN (+2,39%) to over play their hand? Has CPU datacenter operators like $EQIX (+0,76%) ($75B), $DLR (+1,41%) ($55B), and many similar sized privately owned operators like BSO overplayed their hand? Why doesn’t AWS, GCP, Azure build more of it’s own datacenters instead of let $75B and $55B market cap “middle-men” develop? The GPU datacenter operator space will undoubtedly be larger than the CPU datacenter operator space and $IREN (+2,39%) will be 2-3x larger than $EQIX (+0,76%) and $DLR (+1,41%) once it’s said and done. And that’s if $IREN (+2,39%) doesn’t move up the software stack.
Sources:
(1)https://x.com/sectorsignals/status/1873257677595484382?s=46&t=5M46IuHFFx0VtfxNNuG8NA
(3) https://makayda.com/blog/what-is-capacity-factor
(4)https://cset.georgetown.edu/publication/china-14th-five-year-plan/
(9)https://lailluminator.com/2025/08/20/entergy-meta/
(10) https://www.datacenterwatch.org/report
(11)https://x.com/umbisam/status/1968272986584351104?s=46&t=5M46IuHFFx0VtfxNNuG8NA
(12)https://x.com/fransbakker9812/status/1964911703059238927?s=46&t=5M46IuHFFx0VtfxNNuG8NA
Thanks for sharing anyway.
Reallocation - need your opinion
Hello everyone,
I am 20 years old, currently have a custody account of around CHF 37,000 with IBKR and save around CHF 600 per month.
My current statement:
- ETFs: $IWDA (+0,18%) (MSCI World), $IUIT (+0,25%) (S&P 500 IT), $IGLN (-0,28%) (Gold)
- Individual stocks: $NVDA (+0,45%) , $GOOGL (-0,07%) , $BRK.B (-0,04%) $IBKR, $RHM (+0,49%)
Cash: almost nothing
Considering:
- Selling some SWDA and also reducing some gold.
- With the capital freed up, invest more in S&P 500 / Nasdaq or in individual stocks ($MSFT (+0,01%) , $META (+0,32%) , $AMZN (+0,4%) , $NOVO B (-0,05%) ).
- Possibly also $BTC (-0,18%) slightly for more "risk-on".
My thoughts:
- MSCI World is too broad and too heavy in Europe/Japan for me, I see more long term return in the S&P 500.
- Gold is okay for safety, but maybe I don't need 10% at 20 years.
- I want more growth / oomph, I am also prepared to endure short-term fluctuations.
👉 Questions for you:
- Would you cut SWDA and weight S&P 500 / Nasdaq more instead?
- Reduce gold and increase tech or EM instead?
- Is it worth adding to Bitcoin or growth stocks like Novo Nordisk at my age in order to achieve even higher returns in the long term?
- Or would it be better to leave everything as it is and just optimize via the savings rate?
Thank you for your feedback 🚀
If I were you, I would implement a targeted weighting via savings rate and "opportunities"...
Then, as I understand it, you want to keep all positions...
By the way, I find depot 👍
Building it at 19 years old
Big positions right now in $NVDA (+0,45%) and $ASML (-0,77%) I want to grow my portfolio by adding $SIE (-0,19%) , $TSM (+1,83%) , $IFX (-0,99%) and $MSFT (+0,01%) when the stock prices will be down. My focus is long term growth.
Any recommendations?
$NOVO B (-0,05%)
$ASML (-0,77%)
$NVDA (+0,45%)
$1211 (-2,85%)
$VWRL (+0,26%)
$SMEA (+0,29%)
$VUSA (+0,16%)
#portfoliofeedback
#beginnerinvestors
Milestone EUR 300k!
Dear Community,
even if a bit late, I would like to share my €300k portfolio milestone with you!
My approach (28 years old, Quality-Growth Tech)
I pursue a buy-and-hold strategy with a focus on companies that have the potential to become real "compound machines". In doing so, I concentrate on:
Selection criteria:
- Strong competitive advantages ("economic moats")
- High and expanding margins (gross, EBITDA, EBIT & FCF)
- Rising returns on capital over various economic cycles
- Low debt
- Sustainable growth potential
Sector allocation: My portfolio is mainly focused on IT, semiconductors and financial services - sectors that I believe will continue to shape the economy in the future.
Core positions (>50% of the portfolio):
$NVDA (+0,45%) | $GOOGL (-0,07%) | $META (+0,32%) | $AMZN (+0,4%) | $MSFT (+0,01%) | $AVGO (+1,29%) The deliberate overweighting of the tech sector reflects my conviction that information technology remains the key growth driver.
New development: In addition, I have recently taken advantage of the high market volatility for short-term swing trades, which sometimes give me more and sometimes less return
Roast my approach! 😄
Where do you see weaknesses? What would you do differently?
I would definitely expand Bitcoin if I were you 😁
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