Microsoft
$MSFT (-0,71%) has announced that over the next two years 3 billion US dollars in India 🇮🇳 over the next two years to develop the "cloud and AI infrastructure" to expand.

Graphic: Microsoft

Bitcoin back above $100,000 + Nvidia scratches Apple's market value + Microsoft focuses on AI

Bitcoin $BTC (-1,01%)has cleared the $100,000 hurdle again

• Then ran through $101,000 and is currently oscillating back and forth between $101,000 and $103,000.
• Will the $100,000 hold now or will we soon see figures below this level again?

AI remains a booming topic and Nvidia $NVDA (-4,64%) remains on board

• The booming topic of artificial intelligence (AI) remains a key driver of shares in the global semiconductor industry at the start of the new year.
• This applies above all to the shares of Nvidia .
• On Monday, they approached their record high of 152.89 dollars, which they reached in November, with a recent price jump of five percent to 152 US dollars.
• According to experts, investors are hoping for positive statements from CEO Jensen Huang at the CES trade fair in Las Vegas.
• Nvidia has thus reopened the race for the role of the world's most valuable company.
• The gap to Apple is minimal; both are currently valued at a good 3.7 trillion dollars on the stock exchange.
• However, thanks to the 1.4 percent increase and a value of 3.73 trillion, Apple is still just ahead.

Microsoft $MSFT (-0,71%)focuses on AI

• The share price rose after the software giant announced plans to invest around 80 billion US dollars in the development of data centers in the 2025 financial year in order to train artificial intelligence models and use AI and cloud-based applications.

Tuesday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

• ex-dividend of individual stocks

Bank of Nova Scotia 0.75 CAD

Barry Callebaut CHF 29.00

Fabege SEK 0.45

• Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe

Untimed: Sodexo Q1 sales

• Economic data

08:30 CH: Consumer prices December FORECAST: +0.6% yoy previously: +0.7% yoy

08:45 FR: Consumer prices (preliminary) December PROGNOSE: +0.4% yoy/+1.5% yoy previous: -0.1% yoy/+1.3% yoy HICP PROGNOSE: +0.4% yoy/+1.8% yoy previous: -0.1% yoy/+1.7% yoy

11:00 EU: Labor market data November Eurozone Unemployment rate FORECAST: 6.3% previously: 6.3%

11:00 EU: Eurozone consumer prices (flash estimate) December Eurozone FORECAST: +0.3% yoy/+2.4% yoy PREV: -0.3% yoy/+2.2% yoy Core CPI (excluding energy, food, alcohol, tobacco) FORECAST: +0.4% yoy/+2.7% yoy PREV: -0.6% yoy/+2.7% yoy

11:00 IT: Consumer prices (preliminary) December PROGNOSE: +1.5% yoy previously: +1.3% yoy

14:30 US: Trade Balance November FORECAST: -78.4 bn USD previously: -73.8 bn USD

16:00 US: ISM non-manufacturing index December Forecast: 53.4 points Previous: 52.1 points

Untimed: US: CES technology trade fair, Las Vegas

Hello,

My portfolio is finally the way I wanted it to be. (MSCI World and FTSE all World are for retirement provision and parents, so don't pay attention to them).

The plan for the future is pretty simple, hold 10 stocks, if some of them correct/crash extremely, buy more. Otherwise, focus on the three ETFs and leave. The investment horizon is at least 45 years.

What do you think of this and which quality companies would you find suitable? I am currently looking at $MSFT (-0,71%)
$MCD (-0,64%)
$MC (+1,15%) and $ISRG (-1,61%) at

In 2024, a lot has happened for me financially. I started investing around the middle of 2021. As I come from a family in which investing in the stock market was rather frowned upon (my parents invested in car manufacturers in 2000, which then slipped in 2001 just like everything else and they realized the losses), I only dared to start with small amounts bit by bit on an ETF basis in 2021. Financial flow classic 70% MSCI World ETF and 30% MSCI EM. The good thing about this was above all building up the automatism of investing money steadily and not waiting until the end of the month.

However, in 2024 I started to look more closely at the topic of finance, sometimes watching Berkshire conferences with Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger and realized that I was interested in individual stocks and would like to own Apple (shares) myself, for example. In February 24' I then looked at my EM position and saw that the position had been more or less at 0 since '21. So I sold just under €1000 and put it into Apple. And no, I didn't calculate the intrinsic value of the share first and didn't know at the time that Apple would be launching devices with AI at the end of 2024. I myself work in the field of software engineering/data science and if someone has the choice, you actually always take the Macbook over Windows computers. But that's another topic for debate :)

The Apple shares then performed really well even after the purchase and I was fascinated by the fact that I generated more unrealized profits with a single share or 6 Apple shares within 2 months than with the EM in 4 years. (I'll come back to EM later)

From March onwards, I suspended my savings plan in the ETFs and simply put the money in my Scalable clearing account instead. I didn't know what exactly I wanted to buy now, so pretty much from mid-24' I started to dive more into investing and how to analyze stocks. I had already studied discounted cash flow analysis in my bachelor's degree, back then in the subject of finance with a 3.0 :D. So I built an Excel spreadsheet and started using DCF models to calculate the intrinsic value of shares.

But what exactly should my strategy be when buying shares?

I mean, I already liked getting a dividend from Apple, so did I want to pursue some kind of dividend growth strategy? Should I go for "fast growers" as Peter Lynch would say? But should I then also add so-called "stalwarts" (dividend stocks) and "asset plays" (stocks with very expensive inventories, for example, or investments and cash whose book value is well below their actual value) to my portfolio, as he advises?

"Only buy something that you'd be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for ten years" - W. Buffett

Long-term focus

My investment horizon is over 10 years, so it is important to me to have some kind of predictability of income from the companies I want to buy. It was also important for me to be patient when buying from the outset and to allow some time to pass in order to check whether an investment thesis holds up over quarters.

Quality

I focus exclusively on companies with a leading position in their respective industry, either number 1 or number 2 in the respective sector with a large market share. The important thing here is that growth should be primarily organic. This means that the company should either simply build good, irreplaceable products that customers love and therefore remain loyal to, or simply be so influential that they can simply raise their prices without really losing customers ("pricing power" like Apple)

Concentration

Especially for someone coming from the financial flow school where the more diversified the investment, the better, it was hard to get used to this element. The investor Dev Kantesaria, who has successfully managed Valley Forge Capital for years and whose philosophy is also based on mine, once described this very aptly in an interview: "Why should I invest in my 25th best investment idea?". Accordingly, my goal is only to invest in a maximum of 15 individual stocks - I can't even manage to regularly check more in my free time and check whether the investment thesis still holds up.

Discipline

With the Emerging Markets ETF, I have held a position in my portfolio for several years purely out of conviction that this investment in emerging markets will work out in the long term. I also want to hold my stocks with the same conviction that they will perform well over the long term. In addition, I usually invest in companies when their intrinsic value suggests a margin of safety of at least 15-20%. For example, there was a slump in Alphabet shares in the summer with the unrest that Alphabet might be split up. The share was worth around €150 at the time. All of Alphabet's individual businesses have a combined intrinsic value of €250-300. Also related to this strategy element is that I don't really touch individual sectors that are associated with large research and development costs, for example, unless I really know my way around them. So I avoid biotech companies because I hardly know anything about them, but I invest in tech companies because I work in IT myself.

So I look for companies that are quasi monopolies in their respective industries, with strong market shares and a large moat due to irreplaceable or hard-to-penetrate products and a solid margin with a focus on steady free cash flow growth.

So why do I actually have the Emerging Markets ETF?

I asked myself this question and then promptly took another look at just ETF to see which stocks are actually in it. The top 10 holdings accounted for almost 25%. Why is that important? Some people always complain that the Magnificent 7 have such a high share in the S&P500, also slightly more than 25%, but this is usually due to the fact that companies are often weighted by market capitalization. If you then take a closer look at the top 10, 5 of them are Chinese companies. In general, China accounts for just under 25% of the ETF share. Chinese equities are not bad per se, there are some very good companies. However, the constant intervention of the government is a problem, laws can be changed overnight and a company becomes obsolete, or Mr. Ma, the CEO of Alibaba, simply disappears for a few months after having expressed mild criticism of government officials in a speech. These characteristics go against my strategy as formulated above, which is why the EM ETF was thrown out completely in July.

I then slowly tried to build up my individual positions towards the end of July, primarily $CRM (-1,06%) , $ASML (-0,64%) , $MSFT (-0,71%) , $BKNG (-1,83%) , $GOOG (-0,68%) , $V (-0,12%) and $AMZN (-1,8%) . On August 5 there was a small correction, I think it was due to the "Japanese carry trade". That week I made another big purchase, very happy not to have invested all my freed-up EM capital at once. As a result, I was able to invest heavily in Amazon and Alphabet and make them my largest single positions.

Overall, I am very happy with the decision. I am aware that the last stock market year was a very good one overall and that you shouldn't be deceived by appearances. Things will probably not always go so well. My third-largest single position, in which I was in the red at just under €1500 in the meantime $ASML (-0,64%) is good proof of this. Nevertheless, this company is a virtual monopoly in the chip manufacturing sector and will most likely remain so for the next 10 years. Therefore, I can only shrug my shoulders and look at the reports from the Magnificent 7, which are constantly expanding their data centers and in some cases were unable to meet demand in the last quarters of 2024! But there are already some good articles on this here on getquin. A new addition at the end of '24 is $UBER (+0,62%) I will also be steadily expanding my position there, and the watchlist also includes $MELI (-0,99%) , $MCO (-1,64%) , $SPGI (-0,15%) , $CAKE (+1,24%) and $AMD (-0,96%) for 2025.

To summarize:

Portfolio performance: 31% vs. S&P500 25%

Invested capital: approx. 22,000 euros

Portfolio value growth: approx. 42,000 euros

Goals for 2025:

• 30k invested (a large crypto cash-out will take place with approx. 20-30k, not included in the portfolio)
• Beat the S&P500
• Increase portfolio value to 150k
• Sell $TTWO (-3,41%) (GTA 6 bet, but by the time this appears it feels like you've already done 10x in other companies)
• expansion $SPGI (-0,15%) and addition of $MCO (-1,64%) (credit rating duopolies)

Microsoft
$MSFT (-0,71%) announced that in the 2025 financial year the company expects to generate around 80 billion US dollars for the construction of data centers that are designed for AI workloads designed for AI workloads.

More than half of these investments will be made in the USA 🇺🇸, reports CNBC.

Graphic: CNBC

It's a pity that my cryptos are not included here. Nevertheless, I think my shares have performed very well.

My strongest drivers were $TSLA (-4,03%)
$MSTR (-9,85%) and $NVDA (-4,64%)

Which stocks did you buy in 2024 to profit from in 2025?

My bets are $DLR (+0,41%)
$HODL (+0%) and the big cloud providers $MSFT (-0,71%)
$AMZN (-1,8%) and $GOOG (-0,68%)

McKinsey estimates that the global e-commerce market will be worth at least USD 14 trillion and the cloud market at least USD 1.6 trillion.

$AMZN (-1,8%) , $GOOGL (-0,72%) , $MSFT (-0,71%) , $NVDA (-4,64%) , $AMD (-0,96%)

Summary of the stock market year 2024:

-Impressive performance: In 2024, the S&P 500 gained 24% one of the strongest performances since 1950, driven by a few dominant stocks. Nasdaq around 30%, gold 12% and Bitcoin tops everything with almost 50%.

-Focus on the "magic 7": Nvidia, Tesla, Meta and co. were major contributors to performance, with these top stocks delivering over 30% earnings growth recorded.

-Shift to ETFs: Over 1 trillion dollars flowed into ETFs, while actively managed funds 450 billion dollars lost.

-Political uncertainties: Donald Trump's inauguration brought risk-on sentiment, but also volatility and regulatory risk.

-International markets: While the DAX fell by 19% the Dow Jones remained at 13% lagged behind. China showed "solid" growth, but geopolitical tensions remain palpable

Review of the stock market year 2024

Exceptional market performance

The S&P 500 closed the year with a gain of 24% (similar to last year) - one of the best performances since 1950. The dominance of the "Magic 7" - $NVDA (-4,64%) Nvidia (+180%), $TSLA (-4,03%) Tesla (+74%), $META (-2,53%) Meta (+70%), $AMZN (-1,8%) Amazon (+50%), $GOOGL (-0,72%) Google (+40%), $AAPL (-0,38%) Apple (+30%) and $MSFT (-0,71%) Microsoft (+15%) - shaped 2024, with these companies averaging +30% earnings growth, while the rest of the S&P 500 only achieved +4%. Their average price/earnings (PE) ratio of 30 is significantly higher than the $VUSA (-0,55%) S&P 500 average of 22.7 and shows that the market continues to expect strong growth. Excluding the ten largest stocks in the index, the PE falls to 18, highlighting the dependence of market performance on a small number of players.

ETFs and the relocation of capital

The year 2024 was characterized by a mass shift of capital into ETFswith a record inflow of over 1 trillion dollarswhile actively managed funds 450 billion dollars outflows from actively managed funds. This reinforces the dominance of large companies and changes the market structure in favor of passive strategies.

Economy and politics: influence of Trump and the Fed

The inauguration of Donald Trump as the 47th US president brought a new dynamic to the markets. The Fed adjusted its inflation expectations and raised the neutral interest rate to 3,1%which initially led to rising yields and a stronger dollar. Despite higher inflation expectations, the Fed plans to cut interest rates in 2025 and 2026.

International markets and China

The DAX rose by 19% and benefited from export-oriented companies. In the USA, the Dow Jones remained at 13% behind. China's economy continues to grow "robustly", but geopolitical tensions, particularly in the technology sector, are weighing on international relations. The PMI data for the service sector in China surprised positively, but sustainability remains questionable.

Personal insights and goals

The year 2024 showed me once again how important patience and discipline are when investing. I would like to:

1.Develop better analysis tools: Improve my TradingView indicators and evaluate financial data more efficiently.

2.Strengthen emotional control: Act less emotionally and impulsively and focus on rational decisions.

3.Live in the moment: Focusing more on the here and now and finding a balance between planning and appreciating the present.

4.Be more realistic: Recognize that investing is a privilege and appreciate it accordingly.

5.Increase efficiency: Continue to optimize my processes for analyzing and evaluating individual stocks.

I am very satisfied with my performance this year and hope that you have also come a little closer to your goals. Another post on my expectations for 2025 will follow today or tomorrow.

Future plans for posts

I intend to write more posts in the near future. I want to cover topics that are particularly important to me and that I think could be interesting and useful for many of you. Here are some of my planned topics:

1. crypto on-chain analysis

I would like to discuss the transparent nature of the blockchain to better understand who is buying and who is selling. On-chain data offers fascinating insights into the behavior of market participants, e.g. by tracking wallet movements, whale activity and long-term holder trends. The aim is to make more informed decisions and avoid emotional missteps.

2. tradingView indicators for company data visualization

I am working on a series of indicatorsto visualize specific aspects of company performance and facilitate analysis. Planned are

• Earnings Predictability

An indicator that shows at a glance how how reliably the management forecasts and expectations. This makes it easier to assess the stability and planning reliability of the company.

• Margin Dominance

This is about margin pressure and to recognize the pricing power of a company. The aim is to highlight companies with sustainable competitive advantages and stable margins.

• Debt Management

This indicator visualizes how healthy a company's debt This indicator visualizes how healthy a company's debt is, whether debt is taken on or reduced strategically and whether this is done at times when it is cheap or expensive.

• Capex Cycle Analysis

A visualization of the investment cycle of a company. The aim is to show how efficiently investments generate income and whether capital expenditure is being used strategically.

• Compounder Rating

An indicator that shows how companies that I classify as value compounders perform over different time horizons. The aim is to be able to better assess the long-term quality and stability of such companies.

I look forward to working on these topics and sharing them with you. If you have any suggestions or specific questions, please let me know!

Happy New Year everyone! We are starting the new year with adjustments to the Sina ETF. (The performance here below somehow no longer corresponds to the actual performance, but so be it...) After this post you'll have peace and quiet from my ETF again :D

I sold some stocks and invested the dividends I received last year. That left me with 19 euros in cash, so it's still a 40-share ETF ;)

If this were my only portfolio, I would probably have held more cash and not reinvested directly, as the entry point doesn't always seem optimal. But I also proceeded without regard to entry points.

For the question of how high the profits or losses were, please refer to the portfolio.

Out are:

$STLAM (+1,13%) (loss)

$AFX (+1,13%) (loss)

$MC (+1,15%) (loss)

$OR (-0,56%) (loss)

$7203 (+2,08%) (loss)

$D05 (+3,2%) (Profit)

$RHM (+1,72%) (Profit)

$ENR (-0,94%) (Profit; also dropped from my "real" portfolio)

Partial sale:

$WMT (-0,43%) at 50%

Increased by:

$AAPL (-0,38%)

$MSFT (-0,71%)

$ASML (-0,64%) Since the position was down over 20%, but I am convinced in the long term

$GOOGL (-0,72%)

New additions:

$BKNG (-1,83%)

$JPM (+1,47%)

$NU (+0,46%)

$COST (+0,37%)

$AFL (+0,47%)

$INTC (+0,91%)

$CRM (-1,06%)

$NOVO B (-2%)