Postos
57Here are my current holdings:
I added a new stock to my portfolio: $LULU (+1,14%)
Why I Own $LULU
Lululemon fits my strategy as a high-quality, premium consumer compounder with strong brand equity, pricing power, and a long runway for growth. I look for companies with exceptional return on capital employed, healthy margins and structural tailwinds. Lululemon checks all of those boxes.
The company has built a loyal, global customer base through community, innovation, and direct-to-consumer execution. Its gross margin is consistently above 55%. $LULU (+1,14%) isn’t just selling apparel, it’s selling a lifestyle.
This is a small initial position (1%) to establish exposure to a category-defining brand that aligns with my focus on durable growth, premium positioning, and strong capital efficiency. If execution continues, I may build this into a meaningful satellite in my long-term consumer allocation.
Hello my dears,
Today I visited lululemon for the first time.
YouTube videos and reports have only ever mentioned that it's all about sportswear. And probably mainly in the yoga area.
So I was all the more surprised to see today that they also have leisurewear and even business fashion.
Unfortunately, I didn't find it well attended, but it is Monday.
Subscribe to the podcast so that the bottom is reached soon.
00:00:00 Market environment
00:21:40 Nike, Adidas, Puma, On Holdings, Lululemon, Under Armor
00:35:50 Finding the bottom: Vix, Oil Price, Baltic Dry Index, Gold, Bonds / Bonds, CME FED Watchtool, St. Louis FRED Overnight Reverse Repurchase Agreements, COT
01:18:30 Chevron, Exxon, Occidental Petroleum, BP, Shell
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production A1JKQL
WisdomTree WTI Crude Oil A0KRKU
iShares MSCI World Energy Sector A2PHCF
01:29:35 China shares
01:44:25 Container ship shares
Spotify
https://open.spotify.com/episode/28RlbWBRC6xGUJ8AkHVcFU?si=w1t0GJtDTWOwNuUADqWoPQ
YouTube
Apple Podcast
$ZIM (+2,88%)
$MAERSK A (-0,21%)
$SHEL (-0,33%)
$XOM (-0,25%)
$CVX (+0,19%)
$BP. (+0,59%)
$OXY (-0,67%)
$ADS (-0,27%)
$NKE (+1,6%)
$PUM (+0,5%)
$UAA (+3,26%)
$LULU (+1,14%)
$WTI
$1BRN
$SPOT (+2,13%)
$AAPL (-0,21%)
$GOOG (+1,28%)
$GOOGL (+1,27%)
$BABA (-0,09%)
$700 (-1,34%)
$BYD (-0,74%)
#china
#zoll
#podcast
Hermes $RMS (+0,84%) (very expensive 🤑 )
Ferrari $RACE (+1,12%)
Lululemon $LULU (+1,14%)
Just do it $NKE (+1,6%) (supposedly cheap at the moment, please do not reach into the falling knife)
Booking $BKNG (+1,52%)
Marriott $MAR (-0,32%)
Ulta Beaty $ULTA (+1,13%) and/or L'Oreal $OR (-0,8%) (much more expensive)
Mercadolibre $MELI (+0,35%)
Texas Roadhouse $TXRH (+2,05%)
Chipotle $CMG (+0,09%)
Fast Retailing $9983 (+1,19%)
(doesn't fit with the others on the list but I could imagine it as a speculative stock)
"Everything" very expensive, luxury.
I would be interested to know what your favorites are for a long-term investment?
Lululemon warns cautious consumers
Lululemon $LULU (+1,14%) experienced a painful 15% drop in its shares this afternoon. The reason? CEO Calvin McDonald announced at an investor conference that consumers in the US are increasingly hesitant when it comes to spending. This development is not surprising, as the current economic climate is causing uncertainty. The University of Michigan's consumer index has reached its lowest level since November 2022, clearly showing that people are rethinking their spending. Retailers are also reporting a reluctance to spend, which is directly attributable to concerns about economic changes and rising tariffs. Despite these challenges, Lululemon is optimistic about the future: net sales of between EUR 11.1 and 11.3 billion and adjusted earnings per share of EUR 14.95 to 15.15 are targeted for the 2025 financial year. The diversification of products and low dependence on China could benefit the company in these turbulent times.
Boeing plans to sell Jeppesen navigation unit for over 8 billion dollars
In the USA, Boeing is planning $BA (-0,45%) is planning a significant sale of its Jeppesen navigation unit, and interest is high. Several private equity firms and an aerospace supplier have already signaled their offers. The estimated price for this valuable unit is over 8 billion euros and Boeing will be reviewing the bids received in the coming weeks. Potential buyers include prominent names such as Vista Equity, Warburg Pincus and TransDigm. This sale is part of CEO Kelly Ortberg's strategy to streamline Boeing and reduce debt. If the sale is successful, it could go down in history as one of the largest carve-out transactions in recent years. Jeppesen, known for its navigation products and software, is seen as a valuable asset that could potentially generate stable cash flows for the buyers.
Sources:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-buyout-aerospace-firms-close-174043591.html
🔹 EPS: $6.14 (Est. $5.85) 🟢
🔹 Revenue: $3.6B (Est. $3.58B) 🟢; +13% YoY
🔹 Gross Margin: 60.4% (Est. 59.7%) 🟢
🔹 Total S.S.S: +3% (Est. +5.1%) 🔴
FY25 Outlook
🔹 EPS: $14.95–$15.15 (Est. $15.38) 🔴
🔹 Rev: $11.15B–$11.30B (+5% to 7%)
Q1 Outlook
🔹 Rev: $2.335B–$2.355B (Est. $2.39B) 🟡
🔹 EPS: $2.53–$2.58 (Est. $2.72) 🔴
Q4 Comparable Sales (ex-53rd week):
🔹 Total: +3% (Est. +5.1%) 🔴
🔹 Americas: Flat
🔹 International: +20%
Q4 Revenue (Reported):
🔹 Americas: +7%
🔹 International: +38%
Key Operational Metrics
🔹 Operating Income: $1.0B (+14% YoY); Op Margin: 28.9% (Est. 28%) 🟢
🔹 Gross Profit: $2.2B (+15% YoY)
🔹 Effective Tax Rate: 29.2% (vs. 28.1% YoY)
🔹 Stores: 767 (18 net new in Q4)
🔹 Share Repurchase: 0.9M shares for $332.2M
Management Commentary
“Our Q4 results exceeded expectations... We’re focused on executing the Power of Three ×2 plan to reach $12.5B by 2026.”
Sales of selected competitors of Nike $NKE (+1,6%) :
Nike(USA): $49.0 billion, -8% in the last quarter compared to the previous year, $NKE (+1,6%)
Adidas*(Germany): $24.6 billion, +7%, $ADS (-0,27%)
Lululemon**(USA): $10.2 billion, +9%, $LULU (+1,14%)
VF Corporation**(USA): $9.9 billion, +2%, $VFC (-0,53%)
Anta Sports*(China): $9.7 billion, +14%, $2020 (-0,27%)
Puma*(Germany): $9.3 billion, +0%, $PUM (+0,5%)
Skechers**(USA): $8.7 billion, +13%, $SKX (+0%)
New Balance*(USA): $7.8 bn, unlisted
Under Armour*(USA): $5.4 billion, -6%, $UAA (+3,26%)
Deckers Brands**(USA): $4.6 billion, +17%, $DECK (+0,15%)
ASICS*(Japan): $4.1 billion , +16%, $7936 (+1,05%)
Li Ning*(China): $3.9 bn, +2%, $2331 (-2,1%)
On Holding**(Switzerland): $2.5 billion, +32%, $ONON (-1,21%)
Despite all its problems, Nike is still twice as big as Adidas and somewhat as big as its four main competitors (Adidas, Anta Sports, Puma, New Balance) combined. together.
The Nike share is currently in a 60% drawdown (the worst in 25 years) and is roughly at the level of the COVID-19 low in March 2020.
Attractive risk-reward ratio?
Is Nike a buy, hold or sell for you?
*Main competitor
**Competitor in certain segments
Moderna $MRNA (+5,16%) cuts 2025 revenue forecast to $1.5B–$2.5B (from $2.5B–$3.5B) due to slower demand for COVID and RSV vaccines. 2024 sales hit $3.0B–$3.1B.
Cash costs to drop by $1B in 2025, with another $500M cut planned for 2026. CEO Bancel highlights focus on driving growth, 10 product approvals in 3 years, and further cost reductions. Full Q4 results coming Feb 14, 2025.
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Abercrombie & Fitch $ANF (-0,48%) raises its Q4 net sales forecast to +7%–8%, up from +5%–7%, citing strong holiday demand. Operating margin is expected around 16%. FY24 net sales now forecasted at +15% with a 15% operating margin. Record sales driven by strong comps across regions and brands. Full details at 2025 ICR Conference.
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$LULU (+1,14%) $LULu RAISES GUIDANCE: Lululemon updates Q4 2024 outlook with revenue now expected at $3.56-3.58B (prior $3.48-3.51B) and EPS at $5.81-5.85 (prior $5.56-5.64). Gross margin forecast improved by 30 bps. Strong holiday demand cited.
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