🚨 Disclaimer: This is not investment advice; I am invested in all the stocks discussed here.

These analyses are primarily for my personal decision-making - I am happy if they also offer added value for you 🙂

Here we go already!

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Europe's defense industry has experienced a boom since the war in Ukraine: in 2024, global military spending rose by 9.4% to a record high of USD 2.72 trillion - the sharpest increase since the Cold War.

Europe in particular increased its budgets (including Russia) by around 17%, driven by the new threat situation.

This rearmament is also benefiting US arms companies, as many European armed forces are increasingly relying on US weapons systems.

🤔 Trump 2.0 - tailwind or risk for US defense stocks?

Since Donald Trump moved back into the White House in January 2025, US defense policy has changed noticeably - with a direct impact on the defense industry and its investors.

📈 Defense spending on record course

Trump has announced a defense budget for fiscal year 2026 of over 1 trillion USD an increase of 13% compared to the previous year.

Of particular note is the ambitious "Golden Dome" project, a space-based missile defense system estimated at USD 175 billion and involving companies such as Lockheed Martin and SpaceX.

📉 Protectionism as a double-edged sword

At the same time, Trump is pursuing an aggressive trade policy:

• 10% base tariff on all imports, with higher "reciprocal" tariffs for countries with trade surpluses with the US.
• Doubling steel and aluminum tariffs to 50%, which will increase the cost of arms production in particular.

These measures could put a strain on supply chains and increase production costs for US defense companies. RTX (formerly Raytheon) expects additional costs of up to USD 850 million in 2025 alone as a result of the new tariffs.

👉 Importance of US weapons systems for Europe's defense:

Many European armed forces rely on US technology. Examples include the procurement of F-35 stealth jets (e.g. by Germany, Poland, Finland), Patriot air defense systems (e.g. by Germany, Poland) or Abrams tanks (Poland).

US systems are considered combat-proven and immediately available, which improves interoperability within NATO in Europe.

Europe benefits from US innovations (e.g. drones, missiles, fighter jets), while the USA receives stable sales markets in return.

Especially against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine and new threats (Russia, terror, unstable regions), Europe's dependence on US armaments continues to grow.

🚨 Even if Europe wants to become more "strategically autonomous" in the long term, US defense systems are irreplaceable for the foreseeable future. Anyone who wants to seriously pursue national or alliance defense needs US technology - both operationally and politically.

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📍 Stock analysis - Fundamental & Technical

Following this overview, here are six selected US defense stocks in detail.

For each share, we look at the strategic benefits, current business figures including management outlook, key valuation ratios, analyst assessments, the attractiveness of entering the market at the current price and the dividend situation.

ℹ️ My approach to technical analysis:

My entries are usually follow-on purchases as part of a long-term buy-and-hold approach. I do not try to time tops or bottoms, but look for zones where opportunities and risks are well balanced in the long term.

👉 Important here: sometimes "doing nothing" is the best decision.

If the price doesn't reach my buyback zones - then I simply don't buy more. Patience is often a better entry trigger than actionism (especially in the case of highly volatile defense stocks).

📉 I let the market come to me - not the other way around.

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📍 Lockheed Martin $LMT (+1,37%)

Strategic benefit:

World leader in stealth jets (F-35), missile defense, space - essential for NATO partners.

Key points:

• Q1 2025: revenue +4%, EPS $7.28, order backlog at record level ($173 bn)
• Outlook 2025: EPS $27-27.30, stable growth - focus on F-35, missiles
• Valuation: P/E ~17-18, PEG ~1.6, debt low
• Analysts: 7 Buy / 8 Hold → Moderate Buy, target price ~+8 %
• Dividend: $3.30/Q, increase for 22 years, ~2.7 % yield
• 🟡 Entry from a fundamental perspective: 6/10 - Solid basic investment, but no bargain

📈 LMT weekly chart (logarithmic) - 50 & 200-week SMA, volume profile

• Current rebound from strong support zone, supported by 200-SMA and volume profile.
• Momentum slightly positive, but no clear breakout yet
• USD 495-500 zone = key resistance
• Support stable, but risk increases significantly below USD 450
• Currently: technically neutral to slightly bullish - with potential for a breakout if volumes continue to rise
• 👉 My potential long-term post-buy zone: near the 200-SMA (currently approx. USD 450)

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📍 RTX Corporation $RTX (+0,53%)

Strategic benefit:

Combines military systems (Patriot, missiles) with commercial aviation (Pratt & Whitney).

Key points:

• Q1 2025: revenue +5%, EPS $1.47 - but tariffs weigh $850m.
• Outlook 2025: Sales $83-84 bn, EPS $6.00-6.15 - solid but cautious
• Valuation: P/E ~22, EV/EBITDA ~18, debt increased
• Analysts: majority Buy, target price ~+5-8
• Dividend: $0.68/Q, ~2.1 % yield, >50 years of increases
• 🟢 Entry from a fundamental perspective: 7/10 - turnaround bet with aviation fantasy

📈 RTX weekly chart (logarithmic) - 50 & 200-week SMA, volume profile

• RTX is clearly moving in an overarching uptrend since the low at the end of 2023
• Bottom formation 2022-2023 was completed with high volume, breakout above USD 115 was decisive
• Consolidation above the 50-SMA is constructive - pullbacks to the USD 122/115 area would be technically healthy pullbacks
• Trend: Bullish
• Breakout above USD 139 could trigger strong new momentum as there is hardly any volume resistance
• 👉 My potential long-term post-buy zone: in zone around the 50-SMA (122-115 USD)

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📍 General Dynamics $GD (+0,57%)

Strategic benefit:

Strong in tanks (Abrams), submarines, naval vessels - broad portfolio + Gulfstream business jets.

Key points:

• Q1 2025: revenue +14%, EPS $3.66, book-to-bill stable
• Outlook: EPS +9-10% in 2025, robust despite weaker order intake
• Valuation: P/E ratio ~15-16, debt low, PEG high
• Analysts: 8 Buy / 13 Hold → Moderate Buy, price target slightly above market
• Dividend: $1.50/Q, 28-year increase, ~2.5% yield
• 🟢 Entry from a fundamental perspective: 8/10 - undervalued, solid basis, little hype

📈 GD weekly chart (logarithmic) - 50 & 200-week SMA, volume profile

• GD is technically stabilized, but with limited momentum
• The reversal at the 200-SMA was convincing, but the subsequent rise has so far remained capped below the 50-SMA
• Trend: bullish in the long term, neutral to slightly bearish in the medium term
• Solid support at ~ USD 245 - technical basis intact
• Breakout above USD 280 necessary to spark new momentum
• 👉 My potential long-term post-buy zone: in zone around the 200-SMA (245-250 USD)

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📍 Northrop Grumman $NOC (+0,73%)

Strategic benefit:

High-tech focus: B-21, missiles, drones, cyber & space - Key role in future conflicts.

Key points:

• Q1 2025: revenue -6.6%, EPS $6.06 (adjusted), outlook lowered
• Projects: Delays on B-21, but backlog at $92.8 bn.
• Valuation: P/E ~17-18, EV/EBITDA ~13, PEG >2
• Analysts: 12 Buy / 8 Hold, target price ~+15 %
• Dividend: $2.31/Q (+12%), 22-year increase, ~1.9% yield
• 🟡 Entry from a fundamental perspective: 6/10 - technology leader with short-term pressure

📈 NOC weekly chart (logarithmic) - 50 & 200-week SMA, volume profile

• NOC has been moving in a broad sideways channel since the end of 2022 (~ USD 440-540)
• Trend: Sideways/Based, within established range
• USD 460-465 zone = central key support, has been confirmed
• Break above USD 510 necessary to release new momentum
• Current: technically neutral with a positive trend if it holds above USD 460 - a good area to hedge
• 👉 My potential long-term post-buy zone: in the zone around the 200-SMA (USD 460-480)

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📍 Huntington Ingalls $HII (+1,4%)

Strategic benefit:

Only US aircraft carrier builder; key role in Navy ships & nuclear-powered submarines.

Key points:

• Q1 2025: sales -2.5%, profit -2.6% - production problems (shortage of skilled workers)
• Outlook 2025: conservative, stable navy orders, focus on efficiency
• Valuation: P/E ~14-15, EV/EBITDA ~11, PEG >2
• Analysts: Hold prevails, price target ~+15%
• Dividend: $1.35/Q, ~2.5% yield, 13-year increase
• 🟡 Entry from a fundamental perspective: 5/10 - value case with operational question mark

📈 HII weekly chart (logarithmic) - 50 & 200-week SMA, volume profile

• HII is not a trend value, but has been in a large sideways structure for 5 years (approx. USD 180-270)
• The most recent recovery after falling back below USD 200 was dynamic, but there is currently no follow-up buying pressure above the 50-SMA
• The area around USD 223 (currently) has been a pivotal point in recent years - directionless but stable
• Neutral in the long term, weak below the 50-SMA in the short term
• Key zone of USD 208-210 as a technical hedge (with high volume)
• Break above USD 235 necessary to open up space to USD 260
• Currently: range-bound character, with trading opportunities within established range
• → Long-term breakout above USD 270 would be necessary to release new momentum
• 👉 Currently no additional buying planned

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📍 CACI International $CACI (+3,55%)

Strategic benefit:

Specialist in cybersecurity, intelligence & AI - delivers digital capabilities for the modern military.

Key points:

• Q3 FY25: revenue +11.8%, book-to-bill >1, guidance raised
• Forecast 2025: EPS ~$24, sales ~$8.3 bn, strong organic growth
• Valuation: P/E ~18, EV/EBITDA ~12, PEG ~1, debt moderate
• Analysts: 20 Buy / hardly Hold - target price +20
• Dividend: None - focus on reinvestment & buybacks
• 🟢 Entry from a fundamental perspective: 8/10 - Growth story in defensive sector

📈 CACI weekly chart (logarithmic) - 50 & 200-week SMA, volume profile

• CACI was heavily overbought at the beginning of 2024, followed by a sharp setback to ~340 USD
• Rebound at the 50-SMA did not bring new high momentum → rejection with currently -7.3 %
• The large volume in the sell-off and the recovery indicate institutional activity, but also increased uncertainty
• Structure remains bullish above USD 350but shaky in the short term
• Long-term uptrend still intact, but with increased volatility
• Break above USD 460 would be technically strong - below that rather range behavior
• Current: technically neutral to weak, pullback was too steep to confirm new strength
• 👉 My potential long-term post-buy zone: Above the 200-SMA (350-370 USD)

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🤔 Now it's your turn:

Which defense stocks do you have in your portfolio - or are you currently looking at?

Would you be interested in an analysis of European defense stocks?

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📍 Sources:

Charts:
TradingView

• Reuters – World military spending hits $2.7 trillion in record 2024 surge
• Nasdaq/Barchart – Are Wall Street Analysts Predicting RTX Stock Will Climb or Sink?
• GovCon Wire – Lockheed Reports 4% Growth in Q1 2025 Sales
• RTT News/Nasdaq – Lockheed Martin Reaffirms FY25 Outlook
• GovCon Wire – RTX Reports $20.3B in Sales for Q1 2025
• Reuters – Rheinmetall, Lockheed Martin extend cooperation
• GD – Q1 2025 Results Press Release
• Archer/Barchart – Is Wall Street Bullish or Bearish on General Dynamics?
• Zacks/Nasdaq – Northrop Grumman Misses Q1 Earnings
• AINvest – Northrop Grumman’s Dividend Hike
• Reuters – Huntington Ingalls earnings fall on slowing volume
• Dividend.com – HII Dividend History
• Yahoo Finance – CACI Q3 2025 Earnings
• Marketscreener – CACI Analyst Consensus

$LMT (+1,37%)

According to Lockheed Martin, a version of the F-35 Lightning II that can also be used without a pilot on board could be realized in a relatively short time.

After losing out to Boeing's F-47 in the billion-euro competition for the US Air Force's new fighter aircraft, Lockheed Martin is now focusing entirely on the F-35. Company boss Jim Taiclet announced back in April that he wanted to "turn the Lightning II into a Ferrari". Compared to the winner of the NGAD (Next Generation Air Dominance) program, the fighter jet offers 80 percent of the performance at only half the price.

The engineers could incorporate several technologies that they have developed for various projects for sixth-generation jets. These include the option of flying the F-35 without a pilot. Taiclet hinted at this possibility during a conference in the USA. "We could make the F-35 pilot optional in a relatively modest timeframe, based on a lot of the development we've done," he said. Further improvements such as new stealth coatings or modifications to the airframe to reduce detectability would be conceivable in two to three years' time, he said.

Together with unmanned jets

Possible changes to the shape of the fighter aircraft mainly relate to the air intakes and thrust nozzle of the engine. The avionics will also receive a significant upgrade in order to work together with the unmanned jets from the CCA (Collaborative Combat Aircraft) project, among others. According to the new plans, the F-35 itself could become an unmanned aircraft. The USAF is already testing an F-16 Fighting Falcon with autonomous flight control, even in air combat. However, Taiclet did not mention the twin-engine version of the Lightning II mentioned by US President Donald Trump.

Why an unmanned F-35?

The advantage of unmanned CCA aircraft lies in their lower price, which should enable higher unit numbers. An F-35 without pilots would not be competitive here. The only possible advantages would be for longer missions or high-risk missions. However, it is doubtful whether the USAF would accept the higher costs.

https://www.flugrevue.de/militaer/f-35-kampfjet-ohne-pilot-lightning-ii-soll-in-zukunft-automatisch-fliegen/

$RHM (-3,99%)
$LMT (+1,37%)

The Düsseldorf-based arms manufacturer Rheinmetall is planning to set up a joint venture with the US company Lockheed Martin for the large-scale production of warheads and missiles, including armaments for the Patriot air defense system, in Europe. As Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger explained in a conference call with analysts last week, talks are currently underway to establish the joint venture, in which his company is aiming for a 60 percent stake.

The background to this is that the production capacities in the USA are not sufficient to cover demand in Europe, said Papperger. "Sometimes you have to wait ten years to get missiles from America, which is far too long." The two partners therefore wanted to establish a European "Center of Competence" for missiles.

For example, the ATACMS, GMLRS, Hellfire, JAGM and PAC-3 missiles could be produced jointly. ATACMS missiles have a range of around 300 kilometers, while GMLRS have a range of 150 kilometers, according to Papperger. The Hellfire and JAGM are air-to-ground weapons, while the PAC-3 is one of the two missiles used for the Patriot air defense system.

The Rheinmetall CEO announced his intention to build up a production capacity of up to 10,000 missiles and the same number of large and small rocket engines per year. The aim is to achieve comprehensive vertical integration.

The Rheinmetall boss estimates that the production line will be ready in 12 to 13 months. Final production will also take place there. Development work will be carried out together with Lockheed Martin, so that IPRs will also be located in Europe. However, the project requires the approval of the US government, which both partners are working on. Papperger expects that after the start of engine production next year and rocket production in 2027, the years 2028 and 2029 will be characterized by the ramp-up phase. After that, there is a sales potential of 5 billion euros if the joint venture's production is fully booked. Rheinmetall is endeavoring to supply as many components as possible to the joint venture.

Lockheed Martin is currently ending the production of ATACMS because the PrSM is being manufactured. It is therefore under discussion to process US contracts in the new factory and thus generate the first one to two billion euros in sales. The plan is to take over the assembly lines for ATACMS directly from the USA, explained Papperger. He predicted that the capacities for the new engine production should be utilized quickly, as Ukraine has a high demand for Patriot missiles.

The Rheinmetall boss put the current demand for missiles at 600 to 800 ATACMS per year, around 2,500 GMLRs, 5,000 Hellfires, 5,200 JAGMs and 250 to 300 PAC-3s.

According to him, the supply chains are currently being set up for production. The idea for this was developed by Lockheed Martin's CEO and himself during the Munich Security Conference. The idea was to give the manufacturers of electronic components a five-year contract and a large down payment.

According to Papperger, European customers have a preference for ATACMS with a range of up to 300 kilometers over the GMLRS with up to 150 kilometers. Long ranges are preferred. In Germany, 500 or 600 kilometers are also being discussed. Ranges that are currently only offered by the PrSM.

When asked about the possible establishment of a Missile Excellence Center, the US arms manufacturer Lockheed Martin stated that the company was working with its European allies to identify opportunities for cooperation in order to meet the global demand for US ammunition and precision strike capabilities.

They want to ensure that any potential collaboration strengthens U.S. manufacturing capabilities, creates jobs in the U.S. and Europe, and accelerates the delivery of these goods. "Any collaboration between our companies is subject to the approval of the U.S. and German governments," Lockheed Martin emphasized. As negotiations are still ongoing, all details communicated are premature and unofficial.

Lars Hoffmann

https://www.hartpunkt.de/rheinmetall-will-im-joint-venture-auch-flugkoerperbewaffnung-von-lockheed-martin-fuer-patriot-produzieren/

The German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall $RHM (-3,99%) and the US company Lockheed Martin $LMT (+1,37%) have agreed to expand their cooperation and extended a memorandum of understanding signed in 2024.

The two arms companies will set up a so-called "Center of Excellence" under the leadership of Rheinmetall, which will manufacture rockets and missiles and operate in Germany and other European countries, it was reported.

"Rheinmetall will not only be involved in sales, but will also make a significant contribution to production," said CEO Armin Papperger in a statement.

Source: finanzen.net

Earnings:

Lockheed Martin reported higher first-quarter profit on Tuesday and reaffirmed its guidance for the year on robust demand for its missile systems and fighter jets.

Defense companies have benefited from rising demand for weapons amid the Russia-Ukraine war and conflicts in the Middle East.

It is expected that long-established companies in this sector will also receive a potential boost from US President Donald Trump's move to relax export regulations for military equipment.

Lockheed's aerospace division, which manufactures the F-35 fighter jet, reported a 3.1 percent increase in sales in the first quarter.

The F-35 program was hurt by delays in the rollout of a technology upgrade that will give the jet better displays and processing capabilities for its electronic systems.

Lockheed reported total sales of $17.96 billion for the first quarter, up 4.5 percent from a year earlier. Sales increased in all of the company's divisions this quarter, with the exception of its aerospace division.

The company's net income for the quarter rose to 1.71 billion dollars, or 7.28 dollars per share, compared to 1.55 billion dollars, or 6.39 dollars per share, a year earlier.

Now 20stk. in the depot 👌

Lockheed Martin $LMT (+1,37%) has appointed a new Chief Financial Officer: Evan Scott takes over the position following the departure of his predecessor Jay Malave. Scott brings extensive experience in the defense and aerospace sector and has previously held senior finance positions at major industrial companies. The move comes at a time when Lockheed Martin is investing heavily in defense programs and has growing global air defense and security contracts. Analysts see the personnel decision as strategically important for the long-term financial stability of the defense company.

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$LMT (+1,37%) I just sold my position regarding. $LMT (+1,37%) , lost the contract for F35 lightning and half of Europe including France and Germany want to stop ordering F35 and other US armaments

I lost about 23% on my position....