Hershey

Depot review November 2024 - The depot is growing despite larger withdrawals 🚀

Before I continue with the second part of my investment story, I would first like to share my portfolio review for November.

The second half of November was almost quiet compared to what happened at the beginning of November. Trump was elected, triggering a veritable run on the stock markets. Germany was finally freed from the traffic lights and there were also some exciting topics in the private sphere. I sold a few shares back in October to generate the equity I needed to start building a house. This continued a little further in November.

Overall, my savings rate will also (have to) be lower over the next few months. Less into the portfolio and more into the "buffer account" for building the house. Nevertheless, around €500 per month will continue to be invested and this will be pushed up again as quickly as possible.

After selling 6 shares and an ETF in October, I sold parts of my MSCI World ETF for around €13,000.

But now it's finally time to look at the hard figures:

Monthly view:

In total, November was +6,3%. This corresponds to price gains of ~20.000€.

The MSCI World (benchmark) was +7.3% and the S&P500 +5.1%

Winners & losers:

A look at the winners and losers is particularly exciting this month:

On the winning side with a total of almost €5,000 in price gains, my crypto investments in Bitcoin and Ethereum. This is followed by the long runner NVIDIA with price gains of just under €2,000. 4th and 5th place then goes to the cybersecurity sector with Palo Alto Networks and Crowdstrike.

On the loser side looks very quiet this month. Amgen is still the worst performer with losses of ~€600 due to a weight loss drug that failed to fully meet Wall Street's hopes. This is followed by Sartorius with share price losses of €200. Places 3-5 are then occupied by share price losses of less than €100. All in all, a month with almost no losers.

The performance-neutral movements in October amounted to just under € -6,000. Parts have already been removed here for private topics.

current year:

My performance in the current year is +29,9% and thus above my benchmark, the MSCI World with 26.9%.

In total, my portfolio currently stands at ~345.000€. This corresponds to an absolute growth of ~€93,000 in the current year 2023. ~72.000€ of this comes from price gains, ~3.300€ from dividends / interest and ~16.000€ from additional investments.

Dividend:

• Dividends in November were 21% above the previous year at ~€160
• Procter & Gamble is in the lead with a (gross) dividend of €50 every 3 months.
• In the current year, the dividends after 11 months are +25% over the first 11 months of 2023 at ~2.500€

Buying & selling:

• I bought in November for significantly reduced ~700€
• As always, my savings plans were executed:
• Blue ChipsProcter & Gamble $PG (+0,28%) TSMC $TSM (+1,24%) S&P Global $SPGI (+0,15%) Alphabet $GOOGL (+0,46%) Johnson & Johnson $JNJ (+0,29%) Amgen $AMGN (+0,42%) Herhey $HSY (-0,13%) Alimentation Couche-Tard $ATD (-0,32%) Caterpillar $CAT (+0,29%)
• 
  GrowthBechtle $BC8 (-0,46%)
• 
  ETFsMSCI World $XDWD (-0,07%) Nikkei 225 $XDJP (-0,64%) and the WisdomTree Global Quality Dividend Growth $GGRP (+0,27%)
• 
  CryptoBitcoin $BTC (-1,89%) and Ethereum $ETH (-0,73%)
• 
  Sales as mentioned at the beginning, there was a larger part of my MSCI World holdings in November

Target 2024 & outlook 2025:

My goal for this year is to reach €300,000 in my portfolio. Due to the extremely positive market performance in the current year, my portfolio already stands at ~€345,000 at the end of November.

As is well known, one should not praise the day before the evening, but I am optimistic that my portfolio will not fall so far in December that I will not reach my target.

What will happen in 2025? The logical goal would of course be to reach €400,000. However, due to the upcoming house construction, part of the assets will be invested in the house construction. If I include the property in my statement of assets, the target of €400,000 would of course not change. However, as I am tracking my liquid assets here, I will probably refrain from doing so.

Therefore, my year-end target for 2025 will probably be closer to the final balance for 2024. So around €350,000 at the end of 2025.

How are things looking for you? Have you already thought about your plans for 2025?

#dividends

#dividende

#rückblick

#depotupdate

#aktie

#stocks

#etfs

#crypto

#personalstrategy

Battle for the bean - High costs and their consequences: How Nestlé, Hershey & Co. fight

Last year was a challenge for the food and consumer goods industry like never before. The sharp rise in input costs - particularly for raw materials such as cocoa, sugar and milk - hit even industry giants such as $NESN (-0,14%), $MDLZ (+0,07%)

$HSY (-0,13%) and
Meiji ($2269) (-0,51%) - Asia's largest chocolate producer from Japan - were hit hard. These companies have had to deal with exploding costs that have put massive pressure on both margins and share prices. At the same time, they have developed various strategies to counter this pressure - with mixed success, as their latest quarterly reports show.

A look at the past year

2024 was characterized by exceptionally high commodity prices. Cocoa reached record highs. Due to droughts and weather disasters, the price of a tonne of beans doubled to around 8,700 euros. And transportation costs also rose due to global supply chain problems. These developments were directly reflected in the margins.

At #hershey for example, the gross margin fell by 3.6 percentage points in the third quarter of 2024, despite significant price adjustments. Nestlé fared similarly, with its operating margin shrinking to around 17%, which is below previous peak values.

Meiji, achieved sales growth of 4.2% in the first half of 2024, but operating profit in the food segment fell by 6.9%.

Attempts to curb costs

The companies have responded to the challenges with various measures:

Price adjustments

• Nestlé implemented price adjustments of 1.6% in the first nine months of 2024. However, these were not enough to compensate for the increase in input costs.
• Mondelēz increased prices by 5.1% in the third quarter of 2024. While this supported sales growth of 5.4%, the success was largely based on the price increases and not on increased sales volumes.
• Hershey was able to stabilize in the short term with price adjustments, but recorded a 1.4% decline in sales in the third quarter of 2024.

Efficiency gains

• Nestlé and Hershey invested in automation and digital transformation to reduce costs in the long term.
• Meiji implemented optimizations in production and focused on higher-margin products.

Portfolio optimization

• Mondelēz expanded its portfolio in high-margin segments, which contributed to an improvement in the gross margin. It acquired the Chinese cookie manufacturer Evirth in order to gain a foothold in the Asian market.
• Meiji restructured its sales organization in Asia to focus on profitable markets.

Despite these efforts, most companies were only able to partially offset the increased costs. Consumers react sensitively to price adjustments, and inflation puts additional pressure on purchasing power. This limits the scope for further price increases.

Analysis: Which shares are still worth buying?

Despite the challenges, there are differences between the four companies that are crucial for investors. In order to make the best choice, we look at the most important key figures such as dividend growth, valuation and undervaluation.

On 'getquin' I asked the community, Which chocolate stock is your favorite?

More than a third chose Mondelez.

Let's take a look at the most important fundamental data. Basically, all valuations look very good right now. But as investors, we now want to separate the wheat from the chaff - or the beans from the fruit.

Valuation of the shares

Meiji Holdings: Strong growth, but expensive

Meiji boasts impressive dividend growth of 15.39% over the last ten years - a top figure in this comparison. The last five years have also been positive at 6.00%. However, the pace could slow down, as the estimated dividend increases are now only 4.21%.

One catch is the valuation: with an adjusted price/earnings ratio (P/E) of 23.6, Meiji is rather expensive compared to its competitors. The moderate undervaluation (-16%) leaves room for price fantasies. Meiji remains an interesting option for long-term dividend hunters.

Mondelēz: The balanced choice

Mondelēz presents itself as the all-rounder in this comparison. With an adjusted P/E ratio of 17.6, the share is fairly valued. In addition, there is reliable dividend growth of 11.95% over ten years and estimated increases of 9.26%. The moderate undervaluation (-15%) also suggests further potential.

This makes Mondelēz the ideal choice for investors looking for a mix of stability, growth and a fair valuation.

Nestlé: plenty of upside potential, but low growth

Nestlé impresses with an undervaluation of -28.4% - the highest discount in the comparison. However, growth leaves a lot to be desired: dividend increases are a meagre 3.57% (ten years) and an estimated 2.37%.

One plus point is the favorable adjusted P/E ratio of 15.7. Anyone looking for stability and not expecting rapid increases could hope for a good recovery from Nestlé. However, this may take time.

The Hershey Company: High growth rates, high price

Hershey impresses with estimated dividend growth of 17.94 % - the clear frontrunner. The last five years were also strong at 13.59 %. However, this comes at a price: an adjusted P/E ratio of 19.6 and an undervaluation of only -13.7% make the share more expensive than Nestlé or Mondelēz and therefore not a bargain choice.

Long-term investors might still like Hershey - especially because of the high dividend increases.

Mondelēz ahead

Of the four stocks, in our opinion Mondelēz currently offers the best combination of dividend growth, fair valuation and potential. Nestlé is a solid defensive alternative, while Hershey and Meiji remain exciting for growth-oriented dividend hunters. The decision ultimately depends on your investment horizon - but for a balanced overall package, Mondelēz is the most attractive investment idea of the four. No investment advice.

No investment advice. Follow with pleasure Instagram. More on https://www.dividenden-rechner.de/aktien-analysen/teurer-kakao

Time for a little update 🧐

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From the original 77 positions, there are now 57 left.

Many well-known, large companies that were considered safe have left my portfolio and some have been replaced by more speculative stocks. 😜

Not all of the stocks included are long-term investments, as I have a few trades that have not yet been completed or that I have just entered into. These are among others: $PAH3 (-1,15%)
$3EML (+0,3%)
$GKP (-2,92%)
$MC (+1,33%)
$RKH (+11,26%)
$PYPL (-0,23%)
$HSY (-0,13%)

If all my trades were closed immediately, I would probably already be under 50 positions.

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Where I still have concerns:

The Magnificent Seven. I have them all except $META (-0,26%) and I wonder whether this is wise, as they are already heavily weighted in my ETFs. On the other hand, these very stocks have performed well. That's why I only recently invested in $AMZN (+0%) and am thinking about getting Meta. 🤯

I'm particularly torn when it comes to $TSLA (+0,13%) Tesla. I bought Tesla because of Elon, Musk and all his promising projects. But in hindsight, I'm increasingly of the opinion that Tesla shares only benefit the carmaker and that it's no longer that interesting because the competition is getting better, faster and cheaper, for example $1211 (+0,49%) . Meta, on the other hand, could remain very interesting for the next few years.

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More unpopular thoughts:

Maybe I got in too early at $ASML (-0,23%) too early, 738€. Didn't wait for the bottom to form or for a reversal signal. I will definitely be more cautious in the future, especially with stocks that have already had a long profit history and are therefore at risk. That large investors/institutional investors realize profits after price slumps and this then leads to even greater price slumps.

Waste management $WM (+0,06%) very popular (hype?), fundamentally quite solidly positioned, moat available (I believe it is a duopoly in the USA) and with increasing population and consumption the future prospects should also be given. But will Waste Management deliver anything extraordinary besides a good return and a rising dividend? I don't think so and the business is neither scalable nor high-margin. Therefore, this could be one of the next candidates to be shot down.

From all-time high to all-time high - time to take a look in my cellar 📉

The stock markets only know one direction at the moment and even September, generally the worst month on the stock markets, is heading for a clear green result.

Of course, this can also be seen in my portfolio in the following picture. What I find much more exciting in such situations, however, is always the view to the very bottom, where it turns red and which is generally not shown here.

Now it turns red and negative:

Even though many things are going well, some things are not going well. For the most part, these are still the former corona winners like Pfizer $PFE (+0,17%) Sea $SE (+0,28%) Block $SQ (+0,5%) or Atlassian $TEAM

However, Pfizer's overall performance is not quite as bad, as there has of course been a lot of dividend growth over the last few years.

Nike $NKE (+0,67%) and Hershey $HSY (-0,13%) are also not doing themselves any favors at the moment, but are still in the savings plan. Just like Bechtle $BC8 (-0,46%)

My China ETF is currently the phoenix from the ashes, I was surprised myself that it has almost reached 0 😂

Towards the end of the year, I will analyze the losers again. Will they get another year of probation? Or will one stock or another be thrown out?

I usually look at this between Christmas and New Year's Eve.

What's your situation? What are your skeletons in the closet doing?

#etfs
#personalstrategy
#stocks

"If you work all day, you don't have time to earn money."

- John D. Rockefeller

$MCD (+0,06%)
$HSY (-0,13%)
$MAIN (-0,06%)
$O (+0,46%)

Depot review August 2024 - calm before the (September) storm?

While September has lived up to its name so far (worst month on the stock market, negative in more than 50% of cases), August was a boring month in my portfolio. In keeping with the vacation season, my portfolio also shifted down a gear.

Monthly view:

In total, August was +0,5%. This corresponds to price losses of ~1.400€.

This was therefore unable to fully make up for the losses from the previous month of July (-2.2%).

Winners & losers:

There was therefore not much going on on the winners' and losers' side in August.

On the winning side are MercadoLibre and Palo Alto Networks at the top with ~€1,000 each. They are followed by Starbucks, Crowdstrike and Meta.

On the loser side are the crypto assets in my portfolio in August. Ethereum at the top with price losses of €1,500, Bitcoin in 3rd place with €900. Alphabet with ~€1,000 in price losses.

The performance-neutral movements in August were just under €4,000, after being somewhat lower in the previous months due to private issues.

However, only just under €1,400 of this went into shares, the rest is cash.

Current year:

My performance in the current year is +15,3% and thus still slightly above my benchmark, the MSCI World at 14.2%. Even if the gap is slowly narrowing.

In total, my portfolio currently stands at ~312.000€. This corresponds to an absolute growth of ~€60,000 in the current year 2023. ~44.000€ of this comes from price gains, ~2.400€ from dividends / interest and ~13.000€ from additional investments.

Dividend:

• Dividends in August were 24% above the previous year at ~€160
• Procter & Gamble is in the lead with almost €50 (gross) dividends every 3 months
• In the current year, dividends after 7 months are +24% over the first 8 months of 2023 at ~1.840€

Buys & sells:

• I bought in August for approx. 1.400€
• As always, my savings plans were executed:
• Blue chipsTSMC $TSM (+1,24%) S&P Global $SPGI (+0,15%) Procter & Gamble $PG (+0,28%) Johnson & Johnson $JNJ (+0,29%) Hershey $HSY (-0,13%) Caterpillar $CAT (+0,29%) Amgen $AMGN (+0,42%) Alphabet $GOOG (+0,44%) Alimentation Couche-Tard $ATD (-0,32%)
• 
  GrowthBechtle $BC8 (-0,46%) Synopsys $SNPS (-0,44%)
• 
  ETFsMSCI World $XDWD (-0,07%) Nikkei 225 $XDJP (-0,64%) and the WisdomTree Global Quality Dividend Growth $GGRP (+0,27%)
• 
  CryptoBitcoin $BTC (-1,89%) and Ethereum $ETH (-0,73%)
• 
  Sales there were none in August

Target 2024:

My goal for this year is to reach €300,000 in my portfolio. Due to the extremely positive market performance this year, my portfolio currently stands at ~€312,000.

However, after the first few days of trading in September, my portfolio only stands at €304,000. Compared to the level of €320,000 at the end of June, this is now a significant decline in total assets.

It therefore remains exciting to see how the share price will develop in the last third of the year. However, if we see a year-end rally after a weak September, I am optimistic about my target.

#dividends

#dividende

#rückblick

#depotupdate

#aktie

#stocks

#etfs

#crypto

#personalstrategy