Hello lovelies,

The price of eggs has allegedly been lowered 🍊. However, it is currently causing a huge price increase for coffee and juice.

Which companies could be affected by this?

$SBUX (-0,35%)
$MCD (-0,98%)
$MDLZ (-1,55%)
$HSY (-1,19%) etc.

If 50 percent tariffs are imposed on imports from Brazil from August, US consumers could face massive price increases for coffee and orange juice. Experts warn that supply chains could come to a standstill.

US consumers face the threat of drastic price increases for coffee and orange juice if President Donald Trump imposes tariffs of 50 percent on imports from Brazil as threatened. Experts and traders have warned that the import duty planned from August 1 would bring the supply of Brazilian coffee to the USA to a standstill. Neither US roasters nor Brazilian exporters would be able to bridge the price difference resulting from the duty.

America's favorite drink

No other country drinks as much coffee as the USA. Around a third of this popular beverage comes to the USA from Brazil. According to its exporters' association Cecafe, the South Americans delivered 8.14 million 60-kilogram bags to the USA in 2024. Other foods are also likely to become more expensive. For example, more than half of the orange juice sold in the USA comes from Brazil. Other export products include sugar, wood products and oil.

Paulo Armelin, a large coffee producer who sells directly to US roasters, explained that his customers would probably not be able to pay him if the threatened tariff is implemented. Even without the levy, negotiations for deliveries this year would be difficult due to the 70 percent increase in coffee prices last year. "We will have to look for other markets, perhaps Germany."

lph/Reuters

https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/usa-drohen-wegen-donald-trumps-zoellen-hoehere-kaffeepreise-a-ff54dd15-753f-456a-bdc0-c45151b3e8fd

The shares of Hershey $HSY (-1,19%) fell by 3.2% on Monday after Wells Fargo reiterated its "Underweight" rating with a price target of USD 135.00 for the chocolate manufacturer.

The share price decline was triggered by the announcement that Kirk Tanner, the current CEO of Wendy's and former manager at PepsiCo, will succeed outgoing CEO Michele Buck from August 18, 2025. The share is currently trading at USD 169.93 and appears fairly valued with a P/E ratio of 20.9x and an EV/EBITDA of 14.1x, according to an analysis by InvestingPro.

Wells Fargo cited mixed investor reaction to Tanner's recent positions and the possibility of a "CEO reset" for the negative price reaction, while Hershey faces persistent cocoa inflation that could exceed 20% in 2026, according to forecasts.

The analysts maintain their cautious stance and point to the challenge for the company to implement price increases to compensate for inflation without losing its core customer base.

There are also concerns regarding the price elasticity of consumers and the current valuation of the share.

Tanner brings extensive experience from the consumer goods industry to Hershey. Prior to his short tenure at Wendy's, which began in February 2024, he worked at PepsiCo for over 30 years.

The uncertainty is also reflected in other ratings.

- The rating agency Moody's has lowered its outlook for the company from "stable" to "negative" due to rising cocoa prices and tariffs, but has confirmed its A1 rating for senior unsecured bonds.

- Moody's expects a significant decline in earnings for Hershey in 2025 due to these burdens.

- The analyst firms Mizuho and Bernstein have maintained their "Neutral" and "Market Perform" ratings for Hershey shares, respectively, with a consensus price target of USD 155.00.

They also base their assessment on concerns about cocoa inflation and possible adjustments to earnings expectations under Tanner's leadership.

Meanwhile, Hershey plans to acquire LesserEvil, which is expected to close in 2025 and will be financed with USD 750 million from the company's cash reserves. Hershey's strategic focus remains on customer segmentation and partnering with customers as the company navigates these financial challenges.

Liberation Day on April 2, 2025 was just two months ago, but it feels more like two years ago on the stock markets.

The markets have become accustomed to Trump's mood swings and the old adage is proving true once again: political stock markets have short legs

Monthly view:

My portfolio saw a massive rise in May and May 2025 is the second best month in the last 5 years with +8.1%. Only November 2021 was marginally better at +8.5%.

This corresponds to price gains of ~20.000€.

The MSCI World (benchmark) was +3.6% and the S&P 500 +6.1%.

Winners & losers:

A look at the winners and losers shows a completely different picture in May than in the last 2 months - Suddenly everything is green again.

On the winners is mainly made up of the stocks that have fallen in recent months: US tech

In 1st place is NVIDIA $NVDA (+1,16%) with price gains of almost €5,000. This is followed in 2nd & 3rd place by Microsoft $MSFT (-0,03%)
and Meta $META (+0,13%) with price gains of just under €2,000 each. 4th place goes to Ethereum
$ETH (+2,35%) with ~€1,400 price gains, finally making up some ground on Bitcoin $BTC (+1,35%) . In 5th place is another tech stock with TSMC $TSM (+0,6%) and +1,300€.

On the losers' side looked very relaxed in May. The biggest loser was Apple $AAPL (+0,3%) with just under €300 in share price losses. In 4th place was Allianz $ALV (+0,06%) with -120€, although this also corresponds to the dividend discount after the payout. So it's really significant when the dividend discount leads to a share ending up on the flop list of the month.

The performance-neutral movements in April were ~€500 - these are still lower at the moment due to the house building issue.

current year:

In the YTD my portfolio was still at -12,4% clearly in the red. Thanks to the strong May, it is now only -4.3%, although the MSCI World is still slightly better off at -3.3%.

In total, my portfolio currently stands at ~273.000€. This corresponds to an absolute decline of ~€12,000 in the current year 2025. -14.000€ of this comes from exchange rate losses, slightly offset by ~1.700€ from dividends / interest and ~3.200€ from additional investments.

Dividend:

• Dividends in May were +22% above the previous year at ~465€
• German equities were in the lead with Allianz $ALV (+0,06%) and Deutsche Bank $DBK (+0,83%) - Both with ~€120 (gross) dividend
• In the current year, dividends after 5 months are +25% over the first 5 months of 2025 at ~1.620€
• 
  I have reached another milestone with regard to the rolling 12-month view. For the second time, I have received over €3,000 in gross dividends for the last 12 months. This figure has now risen to over €3,100
• However, the fall in the US dollar is still having an impact on my dividend forecast - unfortunately, the growth rates in the second half of the year do not look very good compared to the previous year

Buying & selling:

• I bought in May for 885€
• 520€ shares
• 265€ ETFs
• 100€ crypto
• Sales There were none in May

Adjustment of savings plans for the second half of the year:

After a long time, there will be adjustments to my savings plans for the second half of the year. With Starbucks $SBUX (-0,35%) Apple $AAPL (+0,3%) and Hershey $HSY (-1,19%)
three shares will be removed from the savings plans. Starbucks and Apple will remain in the portfolio, Hershey is still open.

I will be adding Allianz $ALV (+0,06%)
which I have held in my portfolio for many years and bought individually in 2020.

In addition, the London Stock Exchange $LSEG (+6,37%) and Iberdrola $IBE (+0,16%)
will be added to the portfolio.

I go into these adjustments in detail in the YouTube video (see next section).

YouTube:

My portfolio update for May can be seen there again in the usual form.

Unfortunately, things are a little quieter there and here on getquin at the moment.

There are some private and professional issues at the moment that are taking up a lot of time.

Video: https://youtu.be/Pe59Z287-Zs

Goal 2025

I haven't really set myself any goals for 2025 due to the topic of building a house. A fixed savings rate is difficult to implement due to the issue (unforeseen costs and the like).

A dividend target will also be very difficult due to the high volatility of the US dollar.

That's why I'm focusing on other topics this year, especially building a house and possibly one or two successes in terms of YouTube.

How did May look in your portfolio?

#dividends

#dividende

#rückblick

#depotupdate

#aktie

#stocks

#etfs

#crypto

#personalstrategy

The Hershey Company ($HSY (-1,19%) ) Q1 2025

Financial results

• Net salesConsolidated net sales amounted to USD 2.805 billion, a decrease of 13.8% compared to the previous year.
• Organic salesAdjusted for exchange rate effects and acquisitions, organic sales fell by 13.2 %.
• Net profitReported net profit amounted to USD 224.2 million (USD 1.10 per share), a decrease of 71.7 %.
• Adjusted earnings per shareamounted to USD 2.09, a decrease of 31.9 %.

Business development

• Consumer behaviorStrong seasonal sales in the U.S. Candy, Mint, Gum and Salty Snacks segments (including Dot's and SkinnyPop).
• Cost structureDespite increased costs, the financial situation remains stable, which enables targeted investments and acquisitions.

Use of capital

• DividendPayment of a quarterly dividend of USD 1.37 per share.
• Share buybacks: In the first quarter, treasury shares worth 125 million USD were bought back as part of an ongoing buyback program to increase shareholder value.

Outlook 2025

• Sales growth: Expected growth of at least 2% for the year as a whole.
• Profit forecast:
• Reported earnings per share: decline in the high 40 % range.
• Adjusted earnings per share: decline in the mid 30% range.
• Further expectations:
• Effective tax rate: approx. 16 %
• Other expenses: USD 170-180 million
• Interest expenses: USD 185-190 million
• Capital expenditure: USD 425-450 million
• Savings from Agility & Automation initiative: approx. USD 125 million

Strategic initiatives

• AcquisitionsContribution of Sour Strips to sales development (around +30 basis points).
• Portfolio expansion: Planned acquisition of LesserEvil strengthens the "Better-for-You" segment.

General Mills $GIS (-2,45%) (fair-favorable, interesting)

Wal-Mart de Mexico $WALMEX* (-1,37%) (downtrend - weak peso?)

P&G $PG (+0,24%)

Costco $COST (-0,49%)

Church & Dwight $CHD (-1,86%) (very expensive - silent expansion underway? see German website)

Pepsi $PEP (-1,25%)

Monster $MNST (-0,71%)

Coca Consol $COKE (-1,35%)

Lotus Bakeries $LOTB (+0,24%)

Mondelez $MDLZ (-1,55%)

Hershey $HSY (-1,19%)

Most of them are still "very" expensive in my opinion, despite the current price declines.

I would be interested to know which are your favorites for a long-term investment?