New weekly update with 2 purchases

#dividend
#dividends
#dividende
#invest
#investment
#stocks

$JEGP (+1,19%)
$SHEL (-0,33%)
$TTE (+0,61%)
$BP. (+0,59%)
$CVX (+0,19%)
$XOM (-0,25%)

https://youtu.be/zxMAf8fKq0s?si=Yg0EftvSOzdDtxz_

Today I invested in $SHEL (-0,33%) .

Bought 10 shares at an average price of €28.775 per share including transaction costs.

In total I now own 125 shares, this gives me +- €161 per year in dividend

#shell
#invest
#investing
#dividend
#dividends
#dividende
#stocks

$BP. (+0,59%)
$CVX (+0,19%)
$SHEL (-0,33%)
$TTE (+0,61%)
$XOM (-0,25%)

$CVX (+0,19%)

🔹 Adj EPS: $2.18 (Est. $2.11) 🟢; –26 % YoY

🔹 Revenue: $47.61 B (Est. $48.08 B) 🔴; –6 % YoY

🔹 Cash Flow from Ops: $5.28 B (Est. $6.82 B) 🔴

🔹 Free Cash Flow (ex-WC): $3.7 B (–5 % YoY)

🔹 Slashes buybacks as Trump trade war, OPEC hit oil prices.

Segment Performance

Upstream

🔹 Earnings: $3.76 B (Est. $4.13 B) 🔴; –28 % YoY

🔹 Net Production: 3,353 MBOE/d (flat YoY)

🔹 U.S. Liquids Realization: $55.26/bbl (–4 %)

🔹 Intl. Liquids Realization: $67.69/bbl (–7 %)

Downstream

🔹 Earnings: $325 M (Est. $427 M) 🔴; –59 % YoY

🔹 U.S. Refinery Inputs: 1,018 kbd (+16 % YoY)

🔹 Intl. Refinery Inputs: 618 kbd (–5 % YoY)

All Other / Corporate

🔹 Net Charges: –$583 M (vs. –$521 M YoY)

Balance-Sheet & Capital

🔹 Capex: $3.9 B (–5 % YoY)

🔹 Net-Debt Ratio: 14.4 % (vs 8.8 % YoY)

🔹 Board declared Q2 dividend $1.71/sh (payable Jun 10 2025)

🔹 Shareholder Returns: $6.9 B ( $3.9 B buybacks + $3.0 B dividends)

Operational & Strategic Updates

🔸 Production ramp-up at Tengizchevroil after Future Growth Project completion (+20 % YoY output).

🔸 First oil achieved at Ballymore (deep-water Gulf of America) on time & on budget.

🔸 Acquired 4.99 % of Hess shares; remains confident in full Hess acquisition.

🔸 Completed sales of East Texas gas assets and select non-operated U.S. mid-stream assets; proceeds funding buybacks.

🔸 Announced simplified org structure targeting $2-3 B structural cost reduction by 2026.

Management Commentary

🔸 CEO Mike Wirth: “Resilient portfolio, strong balance sheet, and disciplined capital allocation position Chevron to deliver industry-leading free-cash-flow growth by 2026 despite changing market conditions.”

Weekly & Monthly update.

Friday I will buy $SHEL (-0,33%) depending on the price action. If the price action of $SHEL (-0,33%) is positive I will buy the Jgpi etf.

#dividend
#dividends
#dividende
#investing
#etfs
#etf

$JEGP (+1,19%)
$JEPI

$SHEL (-0,33%)
$BP. (+0,59%)
$CVX (+0,19%)
$XOM (-0,25%)
$TTE (+0,61%)

https://youtu.be/ujNvIDpAyaM

Emendo : This is a repost due to a getquin bug blockign me to correct the OG post

Late April 2025 finds the tanker market riding a crest of opportunity. VLCCs capitalize on OPEC+ production boosts, Suezmax contends with Atlantic uncertainties, Aframax leverages tight regional tonnage, and clean tankers pioneer new trade lanes. U.S. port fees ease, Venezuelan exports stumble, and sanctions reshape shadow fleets. This sector is a ship charging through global storms with bold resolve—let’s map its journey.

⏬ VLCC Market: Harnessing OPEC+ Power

Rate Surge

VLCCs, the behemoths of crude transport, are powering forward with vigor. Baltic Exchange Middle East-to-Asia rates soar to $57,400 per day, a 27% week-on-week leap, with eco-designed vessels reaching $57,800. Jefferies reports earnings at $55,700 daily, driven by a WS 70.93 rate for 270,000 mt Middle East-to-China (TD3C), yielding a $55,010 round-trip TCE. West Africa-to-China (TD15) climbs to WS 68.41 ($52,418 TCE), while U.S. Gulf-to-China (TD22) hits $8.35 million ($45,941 TCE). Taiwan’s CPC Corp secures Wirana’s Hansika at $79,503 daily for early May cargoes, reflecting intense demand as charterers scramble for tonnage.

Cargo Catalysts

OPEC+’s accelerated 411,000 barrel-per-day production increase (from a planned 2.2 million over 18 months) and Saudi Arabia’s 200,000 barrel-per-day boost ignite Middle East activity. Novisea attributes a 34% rate spike to pre-Easter cargo surges and U.S. sanctions on Iranian VLCCs (e.g., Bestla, Egret), which sideline shadow fleets and tighten compliant tonnage. China’s pivot to Saudi crude (replacing 135,000 barrel-per-day U.S. imports) and Nigeria’s potential U.S. crude imports (to offset trade imbalances) extend voyage distances. Clarksons notes 90% fleet utilization (up from 83% six months ago), signaling a market stretched thin—VLCCs thrive on this cargo boom.

Global Forces

U.S.-China tariff talks (potentially dropping to 50-65% from 145%) spark optimism, while U.S. port fees ($18-$33 per net tonne by 2028) soften with exemptions for ballast vessels and tankers under 55,000 dwt. Reuters reports OPEC+ members pushing for further production hikes, which Jefferies says could drive counter-cyclical strength into summer. U.S.-Iran negotiations and Houthi tensions add volatility, but a historically low orderbook (3% fleet growth) and aging vessels (10% over 20 years) ensure rate swings. Novisea sees geopolitical risks pushing rates past $50,000 short-term—VLCCs sail with bullish momentum, poised for further gains.

Frontline-owned VLCC Front Prince - For illustrative purposes

⏳ Suezmax Market: Braving Atlantic Volatility

Earnings Snapshot

Suezmax tankers, the versatile mid-tier carriers, maintain robust earnings but face looming challenges. Baltic Exchange TCE earnings hit $60,400 per day, up 1.7% weekly, with West Africa-to-UK Continent (TD20) at WS 120.28 ($57,338 TCE). Guyana-to-UK Continent (TD27) reaches WS 115.28 ($54,152 TCE), and CPC-to-Mediterranean (TD6) holds steady at WS 135 ($67,939 TCE). Middle East-to-Mediterranean (TD23) stabilizes at WS 91—buoyant rates reflect strong European and West African demand, yet Fearnleys warns of headwinds as VLCCs encroach and U.S. markets weaken.

Regional Risks

May’s first decade clears 32-33 million barrels, but VLCCs erode the second, with six Suezmax stems already booked. U.S. Gulf’s softer Aframax rates ($46,507 TCE for TD25) discourage transatlantic ballasting, while Mediterranean earnings slip as East Mediterranean tonnage emerges and Bosphorus Strait delays ease. West Africa’s tonnage list thins (five firm options to May 10, 20 more by weekend), but charterers’ cautious bidding—some receiving zero offers—suggests a potential pause if owners’ TD20 ambitions soar too high. Fearnleys notes futures declining to WS 69.85 for August, hinting at cooling sentiment—Suezmax holds firm but braces for turbulence.

External Influences

Venezuela’s suspension of Chevron’s $CVX (+0,19%) 200,000 barrel-per-day U.S. exports floods the Atlantic with Suezmax and Aframax tonnage, though redirected ships find work in Brazilian or Nigerian trades. U.S. port fee exemptions for short-haul voyages (under 2,000 nautical miles) protect regional routes, but Chinese-owned tankers face steep levies (up to $140 per net tonne by 2028). OPEC+’s output surge sustains cargo volumes, yet Braemar warns that Atlantic supply buildup could empower charterers—Suezmax navigates with resilience, eyeing stability.

⏱️ Aframax Market: Capitalizing on Scarcity

Rate Highlights

Aframax tankers, the nimble crude haulers, shine amid regional scarcity. Mediterranean Cross-Med (TD19) dips to WS 181.11 ($61,100 TCE basis Ceyhan-to-Lavera), but North Sea Cross-UK (TD7) rises to WS 140 ($55,065 TCE basis Hound Point-to-Wilhelmshaven). Across the Atlantic, U.S. Gulf-to-UK (TD25) falls to WS 176.39 ($46,507 TCE), while Mexico-to-U.S. Gulf (TD26) and Covenas-to-U.S. Gulf (TD9) drop to WS 193 ($52,500 TCE) and WS 190 ($48,100 TCE). A pre-Easter rush clears April, with May stems tightening as ballast options shrink—scarcity fuels Aframax’s fiery ascent.

Tonnage Dynamics

Venezuela’s PDVSA halts Chevron loadings (e.g., Sea Dragon, Andromeda), redirecting Aframaxes to spot markets like Aruba or the U.S. Gulf. Kpler reports Carina Voyager unloading 511,000 barrels after idling, while Dubai Attraction awaits clearance for 340,000 barrels. Mediterranean softness emerges with early May tonnage returning, yet CPC holds at WS 205. Charterers face limited options—owners’ competitive fixing sustains elevated rates. Nigerian U.S. crude imports (135,000 barrels per day in March) and Brazil-to-China trades ($18.74 per tonne) absorb excess tonnage—scarcity drives this market’s strength.

Broader Catalysts

U.S. sanctions on Jugwinder Brar’s 27-tanker fleet (e.g., Global Genesis) and Iranian oil facilitators (e.g., B and P Solutions) curb shadow fleet capacity, boosting mainstream Aframax demand. Braemar calculates only 3% of 2024 tanker voyages would face U.S. port fees, with exemptions for non-Chinese owners easing concerns. China’s shift to Saudi crude and Nigeria’s Dangote refinery eyeing U.S. barrels stretch tonne-miles—sanctions and regional demand propel Aframax’s upward trajectory.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman welcomes Chinese President Xi Jinping in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia in 2022 - For illustrative purposes

⏸️ LR/MR/Handymax Market: Pioneering New Trades

Rate Rundown

Clean tankers sail a varied course. LR2 Middle East-to-Japan (TC1) rises to WS 126.67, holding at $3.5 million for MEG-to-UK (TC20). LR1 MEG-to-Japan (TC5) surges to WS 149.88, with MEG-to-UK (TC8) at $2.84 million. MR Middle East-to-East Africa (TC17) climbs to WS 211.43 ($20,000 TCE), but UK-Continent MRs falter—TC2 (ARA-to-U.S.) drops to WS 147.5 ($16,231 TCE), TC19 (ARA-to-West Africa) to WS 167.5. Handymax Mediterranean (TC6) slips to WS 169.72, while UK-Continent (TC23) hits WS 170—Eastern trades lead, Western routes lag.

Innovative Flows

Emerging trade lanes spark excitement. Nigeria’s Dangote refinery explores U.S. crude imports to free local barrels for China, lifting LR and MR demand. China’s pivot to Saudi crude (replacing U.S. imports) bolsters LR1 and LR2 hauls from the Middle East. U.S. Gulf MRs weaken (TC14 at WS 107.56, TC18 at WS 155), but late-week TC2 fixtures at higher levels signal a rebound. Norden’s carbon-negative biofuel trial (65 tonnes on Nord Power) tests decarbonization, though scalability remains distant. Handymax struggles with Mediterranean softness, but Eastern MRs thrive on tight tonnage—new routes define this market’s dynamism.

Influencing Factors

U.S. port fees target Chinese-owned tankers, prompting Braemar to predict MR sales by Chinese lessors—exemptions for sub-55,000 dwt vessels shield most clean tankers. Clarksons notes 9% of 2024 U.S. port calls would face fees, with flexibility for vessel redeployment mitigating costs. Sanctions on Iranian shadow fleets (e.g., Glory International’s MRs) and tariff relief (50-65% rates) tighten compliant tonnage. OPEC+’s output hikes support clean product flows—clean tankers pivot to capitalize on Eastern vigor and innovative trades.

President of Nigeria Bola Ahmed Tinubu and President of China Xi Jinping - For illustrative purposes

🌐 What’s Moving It: Oil Flows and Policy Shifts

Oil and Cargo Dynamics

OPEC+’s 411,000 barrel-per-day output surge and Saudi Arabia’s 200,000 barrel increase drive VLCC and Suezmax cargoes, with Saudi Aramco targeting China’s market share. Nigeria’s 135,000 barrel-per-day U.S. crude imports and China’s shift to Saudi crude reshape global flows, while Venezuela’s 200,000 barrel-per-day U.S. export halt floods Atlantic markets. Sanctions on Iranian (27 tankers) and Venezuelan flows curb shadow fleets, boosting mainstream demand. BRS Shipbrokers sees Nigerian barrels replacing U.S. crude in China, favoring VLCCs over Suezmax—oil flows steer this market’s course.

Global Policy and Geopolitics

U.S.-China tariff negotiations (50-65% vs. 145%) and diluted port fees (3% of tanker voyages affected) lift market sentiment, with exemptions for ballast and sub-55,000 dwt vessels. U.S. sanctions on Jugwinder Brar’s fleet and Iranian facilitators (e.g., B and P Solutions) tighten tonnage, while U.S.-Iran talks and Houthi tensions add volatility. Braemar notes Chinese yards may lower prices (Suezmax slots at $51 million during COVID), enticing orders despite fees. Rerouting to Nigeria and Asia supports tankers—policy shifts and geopolitical risks shape the horizon.

🌐 Market and Stocks: Seizing the Rally

Stock Momentum

Shipping stocks surge 1.8% on tariff relief hopes, per the Dow Jones US Marine Transportation Index, with the SonicShares Global Shipping ETF $BOAT up 2.5%. Frontline $FRO (+2.95%) leaps 5.1% to $15.74, Himalaya Shipping $HSHP (+2.06%) tops at 7.7% ($4.90), and Golden Ocean $GOGL (+0.86%) gains 7.5% ($7.57). Tanker stocks align with broader gains, but Clarksons notes crude tanker valuations at 73% of NAV, implying VLCC rates below $40,000—undervalued given $57,400 daily earnings. Suezmax ($60,400 TCE) and Aframax ($61,100 TCE) strength fuels investor confidence.

Investor Perspectives

Jefferies forecasts VLCC rates surpassing $50,000 short-term, with OPEC+ hikes and sanctions driving 90% fleet utilization. Braemar predicts Chinese MR sales as fees target Chinese owners, but non-Chinese operators face minimal impact (9% of 2024 U.S. port calls affected). Fearnley Securities views tankers as insulated, with rerouting to Nigeria and Asia boosting yields. Clarksons sees $12-18 billion in annual fees by 2026-2028, but vessel redeployment mitigates costs—investors spot value in tankers’ resilience amid global shifts.

Sector Outlook

Eased port fees and tariff relief signal recovery, but Chinese retaliation (e.g., fees on U.S. ships) looms. Low orderbooks (3% growth) and aging fleets (10% over 20 years) foreshadow 2026 tightness. Stocks lag fundamentals, poised for gains if OPEC+ sustains output and sanctions persist. Tankers gleam as undervalued bets, with rerouting and tight tonnage promising upside—investors weigh near-term volatility against long-term potential.

attachment

For illustrative purposes

🌐 Outlook: Charting Future Tides

Market Projections

VLCCs range $55,000-$80,000 daily—OPEC+ hikes and sanctions fuel momentum—bullish. Suezmax at $54,000-$68,000—Atlantic volatility tempers gains—steady. Aframax at $46,000-$61,000—scarcity sustains strength—robust. Clean tankers diverge: LR1/LR2 at $20,000-$24,000, MR at $16,000-$20,000—East leads, West softens—mixed. Rerouting to Nigeria and Asia, coupled with tight tonnage, promises volatility—2026 looms as a peak if trade stabilizes.

Strategic Considerations

Tankers face a pivotal moment. VLCCs could dominate if OPEC+ accelerates output, but Suezmax risks softening if Atlantic supply builds. Aframax’s regional scarcity offers stability, while clean tankers’ new trades signal adaptability. Geopolitical risks—U.S.-Iran talks, Chinese retaliation—could spike rates, but decarbonization (e.g., Norden’s biofuel) hints at long-term shifts. Investors must balance tariff relief against sanction-driven tightness—strategic positioning will define winners.

Your Call

Will VLCCs lead the rally, or clean tankers’ new trades steal the spotlight? Share your take—let’s navigate the markets! 🚢

1 Year T/C - VLCC SUEZMAX AFRAMAX ECO / SCRUBBER - April 23th

$NAT (+1,23%)

$FRO (+1,61%)

$TRMD A (+2,44%)

$STNG (+1,1%)

$OET (+5,37%)

$HAFNI (+3,9%)

$DHT (+1,16%)

$TNK (+1,95%)

$ASC (+1,58%)

$INSW (+2,66%)

*The Worldscale (WS) rate is a system used to calculate tanker freight rates, where WS 100 represents a standard base rate for a specific route. Rates above or below this benchmark indicate how much more or less a charterer will pay relative to the base cost. A higher WS rate means better earnings for shipowners, while a lower WS rate means lower transportation costs for charterers.

The week kicks off with an important earnings season, featuring major companies such as $MSFT (+0,27%)
$V (+0,74%)
$CVX (+0,19%)
$AAPL (-0,21%) and $AMZN (+0,1%)

See the full list here

Source: Earnings Whispers

#stocks
#aandelen
#investeren
#beleggen
#invest

I don't see it clearly I sell with losses$UNH (+4,71%) ... with the fall of oil I will rotate to pretolers with low PERs and focus on dividends $FANG (-1,19%)
$REP (+0,79%)
$CNQ (-0,36%)
$XOM (-0,25%)
$CVX (+0,19%) If things get ugly even with a recession, I think it can protect oil🫤🛢️

Mid-April 2025 finds the tanker market navigating turbulent waters. VLCCs grapple with softer forecasts amid trade wars, Suezmax and Aframax ride high on Atlantic scarcity, and clean tankers seize new routes from Argentina to Mexico. Sanctions choke Venezuelan flows, U.S. port fees loom, and shadow fleets bend under pressure. This is a sector steering through chaos with resilience—let’s dive into its journey.

⏬ VLCC Market: Holding the Line

Earnings Snapshot

The VLCC fleet, crude’s colossal carriers, faces headwinds as global demand forecasts falter. Baltic Exchange spot rates from Middle East-to-Asia hover at $36,500 per day, with Clarksons Securities slashing 2025-2026 projections to $50,000 per day (down from $70,000), citing trade war impacts. Eco-ships are projected to earn $53,000 daily, older units $46,000. DHT Holdings $DHT (+1,16%) reports Q2 spot bookings at $48,700 per day (56% covered) and time-charter earnings at $45,100. A seven-year charter for DHT Appaloosa at $41,000 daily (plus profit-sharing) signals long-term faith, though tariff jitters keep sentiment cautious.

Supply and Demand Shifts

OPEC+’s output hike and Venezuela’s halted U.S. exports reshape flows. Venezuela’s 250,000 barrels per day to China (four VLCCs monthly) may lean on shadow fleets or transshipment hubs like Malaysia, per Braemar, limiting mainstream gains. However, Pakistan’s proposed 16 million barrel U.S. crude imports (eight VLCCs) and China’s 7.3 million barrel Canadian surge via Trans Mountain Pipeline offer long-haul promise. U.S. sanctions sideline Iranian shadow VLCCs (e.g., Bestla, Egret), potentially freeing 13 compliant ships for 500,000 barrels daily—Clarksons sees rates struggling below $45,000 without this shift.

Broader Impacts

The IEA’s 33% cut in 2025 oil demand growth (to 730,000 barrels per day) and OPEC’s 1.3 million barrel forecast dent confidence, with Brent crude at $61.57 per barrel pressuring shale output by 2026. U.S.-China tariffs (145% vs. 10% globally) and U.S. port fees ($18-$33 per net tonne by 2028) spark caution, though exemptions for ballast vessels ease fears. DHT’s sale of Chinese-built VLCCs Lotus and Peony for $103 million reflects strategic pivots—VLCCs hold steady, eyeing tighter fundamentals.

⏳ Suezmax Market: Atlantic Surge

Rate Climb

Suezmax tankers, mid-tier powerhouses, soar on Atlantic scarcity. Spot earnings top $50,000 per day, with Braemar noting firm markets as Venezuela’s export halt (200,000 barrels per day to the U.S.) floods the basin with available ships. Czechia’s shift to Transalpine Pipeline imports via Trieste (from Russian Druzhba) boosts Mediterranean demand for Norwegian and Azerbaijani crude. Rates for eco-Suezmax climb to $52,000 daily, up from $47,000 last week, driven by tight tonnage and rerouting.

Hot Zones

Venezuela’s suspension of Chevron’s $CVX (+0,19%) cargoes (e.g., Dubai Attraction, Carina Voyager) leaves eight Aframaxes monthly seeking Atlantic trades, indirectly tightening Suezmax lists. Turkey’s Tupras resumes Russian Urals at $57 per barrel, with Kyklades’ Nissos Christiana delivering 730,000 barrels to Izmit. Pakistan’s potential U.S. crude imports (16 Suezmaxes equivalent) add upside. Mediterranean fixtures rise as Czechia’s 175,000 barrel-per-day refineries tap TAL—scarcity fuels this fiery ascent.

Trade Twists

U.S. sanctions on Iranian tankers (e.g., Reston, Nyantara) and Chinese refiners like Shandong Shengxing curb shadow fleet capacity, nudging mainstream demand. China’s pivot to Canadian crude (7.3 million barrels in March) stretches Pacific hauls, while Venezuela’s pivot to Asia via transshipment hubs like Singapore tests compliance. Tariff pauses (90 days for Pakistan) offer breathing room, but geopolitical heat keeps Suezmax on edge—resilient yet alert.

⏱️ Aframax Market: Atlantic Thunder

Rate Highlights

Aframax tankers, agile crude haulers, roar with spot earnings exceeding $50,000 per day. U.S. Gulf-to-UK Continent rates hit WS195, yielding $54,000 daily, while Mediterranean rates climb to WS180, netting $62,000. Venezuela’s export freeze floods the Atlantic with tonnage, yet redirected ships find work in Brazil-to-China ($18.74 per tonne) and Trieste-bound Czech flows. Baltic TCE rises to $50,500 per day (up $1,200 daily), with eco-Aframax at $53,000—Atlantic vigor prevails.

Tonnage Trends

Venezuela’s halt (six Aframaxes idled, including Pegasus Star, Ionic Anax) creates a surplus, but Braemar expects quick redeployment to non-sanctioned trades like Guyana-to-Europe. George Economou’s sale of eight Aframaxes (e.g., Monarch I, Saraswati) to Chinese buyers for Russian trades tightens compliant tonnage—six ships lift Urals from Primorsk in March. U.S. port fees exempt vessels under 55,000 dwt, sparing smaller Aframaxes—lists tighten as demand holds.

Sanctions Strain

Russian Urals at $57 per barrel (below G7’s $60 cap) draw Greek owners like Stealth Maritime (Suez Enchanted) to Primorsk, with G7-insured tankers up 36% in March. U.S. sanctions blacklist 140 shadow ships, squeezing Russia’s fleet—mainstream Aframaxes fill the gap, hauling to India and China. Czechia’s TAL shift and Tupras’ Russian pivot add cargoes—sanctions reshape routes, but Aframax thrives on Atlantic strength.

For illustrative purposes

⏸️ LR/MR/Handymax Market: New Horizons

Rate Rundown

Clean tankers sail divergent paths. LR2 MEG-to-Japan drops to WS125, netting $30,000 daily, while LR1 MEG-to-UK Continent falls to $2.9 million. MR Pacific rates slide to $19,500 per day (down 15%), but Atlantic MRs hold at $22,000. Torm’s $TRMD A (+2,44%) MR Torm Singapore pioneers 300,000 barrels of ultra-low sulphur diesel from Mexico’s Dos Bocas refinery, and Tsakos’ $TNP (+1,11%) LR1 Chantal and Selecao lift 1.47 million barrels of Argentine fuel oil to the U.S. Handymax Med TC6 jumps to WS195, yielding $25,000 daily—West shines, East fades.

Market Moods

New trades spark optimism. Argentina’s fuel oil exports hit 66,000 barrels per day in March (up from 7,000), driven by arbitrage to Houston and Honolulu. The UK-to-Colombia petrol route (Energy Ariadne, 41,000 tonnes) reopens after a year, fueled by Europe’s 350,000 barrel-per-day surplus. Mexico’s Olmeca refinery curbs U.S. clean imports, yet Dos Bocas exports lift MR demand. Eastern LR rates sag, but Western MRs and Handymax surge on tight supply—split seas define this market.

Outside Forces

U.S. port fees (71% of tanker orderbooks Chinese-built) prompt sales like DHT’s VLCCs, but exemptions for small vessels shield MRs. Tufton $SHPC Assets sees tankers benefiting from tariff-driven rerouting—South America’s petrol deficit and Europe’s surplus stretch tonne-miles. Sanctions on Iranian and Venezuelan flows push shadow trades to Asia, capping clean tanker gains—Western markets lead, buoyed by new routes.

The Petroleos Mexicanos Dos Bocas Refinery in Paraiso, Mexico - For illustrative purposes

🌐 What’s Moving It: Oil and Geopolitics

Oil and Supply

IEA’s 730,000 barrel-per-day demand growth (down 300,000) and OPEC’s 1.3 million forecast signal softer oil needs, with Brent at $61.57. Venezuela’s 680,000 barrel-per-day exports pivot to China (250,000 barrels), Pakistan eyes 16 million U.S. barrels, and Czechia’s TAL shift adds Mediterranean cargoes. Sanctions sideline shadow fleets (140 Russian, five Iranian tankers), lifting mainstream utilization—oil flows steer this market’s course.

Global Dynamics

U.S.-China tariffs (145%) and Venezuelan sanctions (25% on buyers) disrupt flows, though 90-day pauses offer relief. U.S. port fees ($18-$33 per net tonne) and Houthi strikes in Yemen add tension, but tankers outpace containers, per Tufton, via rerouting. George Economou’s ISAB refinery seeks new suppliers, signaling trade shifts—geopolitical storms test tanker resilience.

🌐 Market and Stocks: Value in the Vortex

Stock Swings

Tanker stocks rebound 13% week-on-week, per Clarksons, after a 13% tariff-driven drop. Frontline $FRO (+1,61%) jumps 20% to $15.50, DHT $DHT (+1,16%) rises to $10.71, but IEA’s demand cut trims gains—Frontline, DHT, and International Seaways $INSW (+2,66%) dip 2%. Tufton’s $SHPC Q1 profit falls to $8 million (from $11.76 million), with a -10.4% NAV return as asset values slide. Clean tanker stocks like Scorpio $STNG (+1,1%) (down 1%) and Torm $TRMD A (+2,44%) (down 2%) hold firmer.

Investor Angles

Clarksons sees tanker equities at 73% of NAV for crude (58% for clean), implying VLCC rates below $40,000—undervalued with upside. Suezmax and Aframax earnings above $50,000 draw buyers, per Seaborne’s Eva Tzima, with IMS’ $26.3 million LR2 purchase signaling confidence. Tufton eyes rerouting benefits, while sanctions on shadow fleets could tighten markets—investors see value, but tariff risks linger.

Sector Outlook

Scaled-back port fees and tariff pauses lift sentiment, but Chinese tariffs threaten costs. Aging fleets (12% over 20 years) and low orderbooks (3% growth) hint at 2026 tightness. Stocks lag fundamentals, ripe for gains if trade stabilizes—tankers gleam as undervalued bets in the chaos.

For illustrative purposes

🌐 Outlook: Shifting Currents

Fluid Futures

VLCCs hover at $36,000-$50,000 daily—sanctions and new trades offer lift—steady. Suezmax at $50,000-$55,000—Atlantic scarcity powers on—robust. Aframax at $50,000-$62,000—Atlantic thunders—strong. Clean tankers split: LR at $25,000-$30,000, MR at $19,000-$22,000—West rises, East wanes—mixed. Rerouting and sanctions shape upside—2026 beckons if stability holds.

Your Call

Will Suezmax keep soaring, or clean tankers steal the show? Share your take—let’s chart the seas! 🚢

$NAT (+1,23%)

$FRO (+1,61%)

$TRMD A (+2,44%)

$STNG (+1,1%)

$OET (+5,37%)

$HAFNI (+3,9%)

$DHT (+1,16%)

$TNK (+1,95%)

$ASC (+1,58%)

$INSW (+2,66%)

*The Worldscale (WS) rate is a system used to calculate tanker freight rates, where WS 100 represents a standard base rate for a specific route. Rates above or below this benchmark indicate how much more or less a charterer will pay relative to the base cost. A higher WS rate means better earnings for shipowners, while a lower WS rate means lower transportation costs for charterers.