After my first post on humanoid robots received a lot of positive feedback, I went into more detail. I have subsequently added my favorites in each sector.

Extended analysis of the value chain including shovel manufacturers and potential hidden champions

New categorySecondary key sectors (sales, marketing, financing)

In additionTop 25 companies worldwide, as well as Top 10 Europe and Top 10 Asia

I have also added a video link for beginners. This will give you an idea of how far the development of humanoid robotics has already progressed.

https://www.stern.de/panorama/wissen/humanoider-roboter---wie-reagiert-er-auf-beleidigungen--35996156.html

Thank you for your attention and your support 🙏

🌐 1. value chain of humanoid robots (with hidden champions)

1. research & chip design

$ARM (+0,42%) ARM (UK) - CPU-IP, energy-efficient processors

$SNPS (+0,37%) Synopsys (US) - EDA software, chip design

$CDNS (+0,52%) Cadence (US) - EDA & Simulation

$PTC PTC (US) - Engineering Software, CAD/PLM

$DSY (-1,25%) Dassault Systèmes (FR) - 3D Design & Digital Twin

$SIE (+0,11%) Siemens (DE) - Industrial Software & Lifecycle Mgmt

$ADBE (+0,76%) Adobe (US) - Design, AR/UX

ANSYS (US) - multiphysical simulation - acquisition by Synopsis

Altair (US) - CAE, simulation, digital twin - acquisition by Siemens

$HXGBY (+0,48%)
Hexagon (SE) - Metrology & Simulation

$AWE (+0,36%) Alphawave IP Group (UK) - High-speed chip IP for AI/robotics

1.Synopsis, 2.Siemens and 3.Adobe are my top 3 in this sector

2. manufacturing technology & equipment

$ASML (+0,85%) ASML (NL) - Lithography (EUV)

$AMAT (+0,99%) Applied Materials (US) - Semiconductor equipment

$8035 (+0,75%) Tokyo Electron (JP) - wafer fabrication

$KEYS (+1,53%) Keysight Technologies (US) - Metrology

$6857 (+1,98%) Advantest (JP) - Chip test systems

$TER (+0,96%) Teradyne (US) - test systems + cobots

$6954 (+0,4%) Fanuc (JP) - Industrial robots, CNC

$CAT (+0,61%) Caterpillar (US) - autonomous machines

$KU2G KUKA (DE) - industrial robots

Comau (IT) - automation - not listed on the stock exchange

$ROK Rockwell Automation (US) - industrial automation

$JBL (+0,46%) Jabil (US) - contract manufacturing (EMS/ODM)

$KIT (-0,66%) Kitron (NO) - European EMS/ODM manufacturer

$AIXA (+0,5%) Aixtron (DE) - deposition equipment for compound semiconductors

$LRCX (+0,88%)
Lam Research (US) - Etch/deposition systems

$MKSI (+0,58%)
MKS Instruments (US) - Plasma/vacuum technology

$ASM (+0,37%)
ASM International (NL) - Deposition systems

1.ASML, 2.Keysight Technologies, 3.Fanuc are my top 3 in this sector

3. chip manufacturing (foundries)

$TSM (+1,1%) TSMC (TW) - leading foundry

$SMSN Samsung Electronics (KR) - foundry + memory

$GFS (+0,36%) GlobalFoundries (US) - specialty chips

$INTC (-0,01%)
Intel Foundry Services (US) - new western foundry player

$981
SMIC (CN) - largest Chinese foundry

$UMC
UMC (TW) - Power/RF/Embedded chips

1.TSMC, 2.Intel, 3.Samsung Electronics are my top 3 in this sector

4. computing & control unit ("brain")

$NVDA (+0,18%) Nvidia (US) - GPUs, AI chips

$INTC (-0,01%) Intel (US) - CPUs, FPGAs

$AMD (+0,43%) AMD (US) - CPUs, GPUs

$MRVL (+2,59%) Marvell (US) - Network Chips

$MU (+1,17%) Micron (US) - Memory

$DELL (+0,94%) Dell Technologies (US) - Edge & Infrastructure

Graphcore (UK) - AI chips (IPU) - not a listed company

Cerebras (US) - Wafer-scale engine - not a listed company

SiPearl (FR) - European HPC chip - not a listed company

1.Nvidia, 2.Marvell, 3.Micron are my top 3 in this sector

5. sensors ("senses")

$6758 (-0,82%) Sony (JP) - image sensors

$6861 (+0,79%) Keyence (JP) - Industrial sensors

$STM (+0%) STMicroelectronics (FR/IT) - Sensors, MCUs

$TDY Teledyne (US) - optical/infrared sensors

$CGNX (+0,53%) Cognex (US) - Machine Vision

$HON (+0,18%) Honeywell (US) - sensor technology, security

ANYbotics (CH) - autonomous sensor fusion - not a listed company

$AMBA (+0,6%) Ambarella (US) - video & computer vision SoCs for real-time image recognition

$OUST
Velodyne Lidar (US) - Lidar sensors - acquisition by Ouster

$AMS (+1,1%)
OSRAM (AT/DE) - optical sensors

1.Teledyne, 2.Keyence, 3.Ouster are my top 3 in this sector

6. actuators & power electronics ("muscles")

$IFX (+0,6%) Infineon (DE) - Power Electronics

$ON (+0,66%) onsemi (US) - Power & Sensors

$TXN (+0,49%) Texas Instruments (US) - Mixed-Signal Chips

$ADI (+0,93%) Analog Devices (US) - Signal Processing

$PH Parker-Hannifin (US) - Hydraulics/Pneumatics

$MP (+0,84%) MP Materials (US) - Magnets

$APH (+0,34%) Amphenol (US) - Connectors

$6481 (+0,41%) THK (JP) - Linear guides & actuators

$6324 (+1,74%)
Harmonic Drive (JP) - Precision gears & servo drives for robotics

$6594 (+2,33%)
Nidec (JP) - Electric motors

$6506 (+1,47%)
Yaskawa (JP) - Drives & Robotics

$SU (+0,33%)
Schneider Electric (FR) - Energy & control solutions

$ZIL2 (+0,24%)
ElringKlinger (DE) - Battery & fuel cell technology, lightweight construction

1.Parker-Hannifin, 2.MP Materials, 3.Infinion are my top 3 in this sector

7. communication & networking ("nerves")

$QCOM (+0,64%) Qualcomm (US) - mobile communications, edge AI

$ANET (-0,07%) Arista Networks (US) - Networks

$CSCO (+0,2%) Cisco (US) - Networks, Security

$EQIX (+0,29%) Equinix (US) - Data centers

NTT Docomo (JP) - 5G/6G carrier - not a listed company

$VZ Verizon (US) - Telecommunications

$SFTBY SoftBank (JP) - Carrier + Robotics

$ERIC B (+0,32%)
Ericsson (SE) - 5G/IoT infrastructure

$NOKIA (-0,42%)
Nokia (FI) - 5G/6G for industry

$HPE (+0,33%)
Juniper Networks (US) - Network technology - acquisition by HP

1.Arista Networks, 2.SoftBank, 3.Cisco are my top 3 in this sector

8. energy supply

$3750 (+2,01%) CATL (CN) - Batteries

$6752 (+1,59%) Panasonic (JP) - Batteries

$373220 LG Energy (KR) - Batteries

$ALB (+1,57%) Albemarle (US) - Lithium

$LYC (-1,33%) Lynas (AU) - Rare earths

$UMICY (-1,92%) Umicore (BE) - recycling

WiTricity (US) - inductive charging - not a listed company

$ABBN (+0,22%) Charging (CH) - charging infrastructure

$SLDP
Solid Power (US) - Solid state batteries

Northvolt (SE) - European batteries - not a listed company

$PLUG
Plug Power (US) - fuel cells

$KULR (+2,54%)
KULR Technology (US) - Thermal management & battery safety for mobile systems

1.Albemarle, 2.CATL, 3.Panasonic are my top 3 in this sector

9. cloud & infrastructure

$AMZN (+0,6%) Amazon AWS (US) - Cloud, AI

$MSFT (+0,28%) Microsoft Azure (US) - Cloud, AI

$GOOG (+0,44%) Alphabet Google Cloud (US) - Cloud, ML

$VRT
Vertiv Holdings (US) - Data center infrastructure (UPS, cooling, edge)

$ORCL (+1,39%)
Oracle Cloud (US) - ERP + Cloud

$IBM (+0,21%)
IBM Cloud (US) - Hybrid cloud + AI

$OVH (+0,95%)
OVHcloud (FR) - European cloud

1.Alphabet, 2.Microsoft, 3.Oracle are my top 3 in this sector

10. software & data platforms

$PLTR (+0,51%) Palantir (US) - Data integration

$DDOG (+0,13%) Datadog (US) - Monitoring

$SNOW (+0,53%) Snowflake (US) - Data Cloud

$ORCL (+1,39%) Oracle (US) - Databases, ERP

$SAP (+0,5%) SAP (DE) - ERP systems

$SPGI S&P Global (US) - financial/market data

ROS2 Foundation - robotics middleware - not listed on the stock exchange

$NVDA (+0,18%) NVIDIA Isaac (US) - robotics development - part of Nvidia

$INOD (+0,16%) Innodata (US) - data annotation & AI training data

$PATH (+0,86%)
UiPath (RO/US) - Robotic process automation

$AI (+1,39%)
C3.ai (US) - AI platform

$ESTC (+0,08%)
(NL/US) - Search & data analysis

1.S&P Global, 2.Palantir, 3.Datadog are my top 3 in this sector

11. end applications / robots

$ABBN (+0,22%) ABB (CH/SE) - Industrial Robots

$6954 (+0,4%) Fanuc (JP) - Industrial robots

$TSLA (+0,1%) Tesla Optimus (US) - humanoid robot

$9618 (-0,34%) JD.com (CN) - logistics robot

$AAPL (+0,22%) Apple (US) - Platform & UX

$700 (-0,04%) Tencent (CN) - Platform & AI

$9988 (+0,16%) Alibaba (CN) - logistics & platform

PAL Robotics (ES) - humanoid robots - not a listed company

Neura Robotics (DE) - cognitive humanoid robots - not a listed company

$TER (+0,96%) Universal Robots (DK) - cobots - belongs to the Teradyne Corporation

Engineered Arts (UK) - humanoid robots - not a listed company

$ISRG (+0,23%) Intuitive Surgical (US) - surgical robotics

$GMED (+0,46%)
Globus Medical (US) - surgical robotics (ExcelsiusGPS platform)

$7012 (+2,22%) Kawasaki Heavy Industries (JP) - industrial robots, automation

$CPNG (+0,3%) Coupang (KR) - Logistics end user

$IRBT (+0,43%)
iRobot (US) - consumer robotics (e.g. Roomba), non-humanoid, but navigation/sensor fusion

Boston Dynamics (US) - humanoid & mobile robots-no listed company

Hanson Robotics (HK) - humanoid robots (Sophia) - not a listed company

Agility Robotics (US) - humanoid robot "Digit" - not a listed company

1.Apple, 2.Tencent, 3.Alibaba are my top 3 in this sector

🛠 2. cross enablers (shovel manufacturers) - with hidden champions

Raw materials & battery materials

Albemarle - Lynas - Umicore

$SQM
SQM (CL) - Lithium

$ILU (-1,63%)
Iluka Resources (AU) - Rare earths

$ARR (-6,59%)
American Rare Earths (US/AU) - New supply chains

my number 1 in the sector is Albemarle

manufacturing technology

ASML - Applied Materials - Tokyo Electron

$LRCX (+0,88%)
Lam Research (US) - Plasma/etching processes

$ASM (+0,37%)
ASM International (NL) - ALD equipment

$MKSI (+0,58%)
MKS Instruments (US) - Plasma/vacuum technology

my number 1 in the sector is ASML

Quality assurance

Keysight - Advantest - Teradyne

$EMR (+0,46%)
National Instruments (US) - Measurement technology - from Emerson Electric adopted

$300567
ATE Test Systems (CN) - test systems

$FORM (+1,08%)
FormFactor (US) - Wafer probing

my number 1 in the sector is Keysight

Motion & Drive

Parker-Hannifin

Festo (DE) - Pneumatics, Soft Robotics - not a listed company

Bosch Rexroth (DE) - Drives, Controls - not a listed company

$6481 (+0,41%)
THK (JP) - Linear guides

my number 1 in the sector is Parker-Hannifin

Sensors/Imaging

$TDY Teledyne

$BSL (+0,33%) Basler (DE) - Industrial cameras

FLIR (US) - Thermal imaging sensors - acquisition by Teledyne

ISRA Vision (DE) - Machine Vision - not a listed company

my number 1 in the sector is Teledyne

Magnets & Materials

MP Materials

$6501 (+0,49%)
Hitachi Metals (JP) - Magnetic materials

VacuumSchmelze (DE) - Magnetic materials - not a listed company

$4063 (-0,83%)
Shin-Etsu Chemical (JP) - Specialty materials

my number 1 in the sector is MP Materials

Chip Design & Simulation

Synopsys - Cadence - ARM

$SIE (+0,11%)
Siemens EDA (DE/US)-Mentor Graphics-strategic business unit of Siemens AG

Imagination Tech (UK) - GPU-IP - not a listed company

$CEVA (+0,85%)
CEVA (IL) - Signal Processor IP

my number 1 in the sector is Synopsys

Engineering & Lifecycle

PTC - Dassault - Siemens

Altair (US) - Simulation - no longer a listed company

$HXGBY (+0,48%)
Hexagon (SE) - Metrology

$SNPS (+0,37%)
ANSYS (US) - Simulation - takeover by Synopsys

my number 1 in the sector is Siemens

Networks & Data Centers

Arista - Cisco - Equinix

$HPE (+0,33%)
Juniper (US) - Networks - Acquisition of HPE

$DTE (+0,32%)
T-Systems (DE) - Industry cloud

$OVH (+0,95%)
OVHcloud (FR) - European cloud

my number 1 in the sector is Arista

Cloud infrastructure

AWS - Azure - Google Cloud

$ORCL (+1,39%)
Oracle Cloud (US) - ERP & databases

$IBM (+0,21%)
IBM Cloud (US) - Hybrid Cloud

$9988 (+0,16%)
Alibaba Cloud (CN) - Asian Cloud

$VRT
Vertiv Holdings (US) - Cloud/Infra

my number 1 in the sector is Alphabet (Google)

finance/information infra

S&P Global

$MCO (+0,1%)
Moody's (US) - Ratings

$MSCI (+0,42%)
MSCI (US) - Indices

$MORN
Morningstar (US) - Investment Research

my number 1 in the sector is S&P Global

Creative/Experience Infra

Adobe

$ADSK (+0,53%)
Autodesk (US) - CAD & Design

$U
Unity (US) - 3D/AR simulation

Epic Games (US) - Unreal Engine - not a listed company

my number 1 in the sector is Adobe

Platform & Ecosystem

Apple - Tencent - Alibaba

$META (+0,7%)
Meta (US) - AR/VR, Social Robotics

ByteDance (CN) - AI & platforms - not a listed company

$9888 (+0,49%)
Baidu (CN) - AI & Cloud

my number 1 in the sector is Tencent

Infrastructure/Edge

Dell

$HPE (+0,33%)
HPE (US) - Edge Computing

$SMCI
Supermicro (US) - AI servers

$6702 (+0%)
Fujitsu (JP) - Edge & HPC

my number 1 in the sector is Dell

storage solutions

Micron

$HY9H
SK Hynix (KR) - Memory

$285A (+14,82%)
Kioxia (JP) - NAND

$WDC
Western Digital (US) - Storage solutions

my number 1 in the sector is Micron

🏛 3. secondary key sectors with hidden champions

Financing & Capital

$GS (+0,29%) Goldman Sachs (US) - investment bank; ECM/DCM, M&A, growth financing

$MS Morgan Stanley (US) - investment bank; tech banking, capital markets

$BLK (-0,24%) BlackRock (US) - asset manager; capital allocation, ETFs/index funds

$9984 (+3,25%) SoftBank Vision Fund (JP) - mega VC; growth equity in robotics/AI

Sequoia Capital (US) - venture capital; early/growth in AI/robotics - this is a classic venture capital fund

DARPA (US) - government R&D funding (robotics/defense) - independent research and development agency

EU Horizon (EU) - research funding/grants for DeepTech - Innovative Europe pillar

China State Funds (CN) - state industry/technology fund

Lux Capital (US) - VC for DeepTech - Uptake (US) - AI-based predictive maintenance

DCVC (US) - Robotics & AI focus - investing exclusively via VC fund investments

Speedinvest (AT) - EU VC for robotics - access to investment only via fund investments

my number 1 in the sector is Softbank

Maintenance & Service

$SIE (+0,11%) Siemens (DE) - Industrial Service, Lifecycle & Retrofit

$ABBN (+0,22%) ABB (CH/SE) - Robotics Service, Spare Parts, Field Support

$GEHC (+1,56%) GE Healthcare (US) - Medtech service incl. robotic systems

Uptake (US) - AI-based predictive maintenance - not a listed company

Augury (US/IL) - condition monitoring, condition diagnostics - not a listed company

$KU2 KUKA Service (DE) - Robotics maintenance

$6954 (+0,4%) Fanuc Service (JP) - global service network

Boston Dynamics AI Institute (US) - Robotics longevity - funded by Hyundai Motor Group

my number 1 in the sector is Siemens

Marketing & Advertising

$WPP (+0,73%) WPP (UK) - global advertising group; branding/communications

$OMC Omnicom (US) - marketing/PR network

$PUB (+0,32%) Publicis (FR) - communications/advertising group

$META (+0,7%) Meta (US) - Digital Ads (Facebook/Instagram)

$GOOG (+0,44%) Google Ads (US) - search & display advertising

TikTok / ByteDance (CN) - social ads & distribution - not a listed company

$AAPL (+0,22%) Apple (US) - Branding/UX; Acceptance & Platform Marketing

$WPP (+0,73%)
AKQA (UK/US) - Tech branding - Since 2012 majority owned by the WPP Groupbut continues to operate as an autonomous operating unit

R/GA (US) - Innovation marketing - not a listed company

Serviceplan (DE) - largest independent EU agency - not a listed company

my number 1 in the sector is Meta

Law, Regulation & Ethics

ISO (CH) - international standards, robotics standards

TÜV (DE) - certification & safety tests

UL (US) - safety/conformity testing

EU AI Act (EU) - legal framework for AI & robotics

UNESCO AI Ethics (UN) - global ethics guidelines

Fraunhofer IPA (DE) - Robotics safety standards

ANSI (US) - standards

IEC (CH) - Electrical engineering standards

Training & Talent

MIT (US) - Robotics/AI Research & Education

ETH Zurich (CH) - autonomous systems & robotics

Stanford (US) - AI/Robotics labs & spin-offs

Tsinghua University (CN) - Robotics/AI in Asia

CMU (US) - Robotics Institute

EPFL (CH) - Robotics research

TU Munich (DE) - humanoid robot "Roboy"

🌍 Top 25 companies for humanoid robotics

These companies are central to the development & production of humanoid robotsbecause without them, crucial parts of the chain would be missing:

Chips & computing power (brain of the robots)

$NVDA (+0,18%) Nvidia (US) - AI GPUs & Isaac platform, foundation for robotic AI

$2330 TSMC (TW) - world's most important foundry, produces the AI chips

$ASML (+0,85%) ASML (NL) - EUV lithography, indispensable for chip production

$005930 Samsung Electronics (KR) - memory, logic, foundry

$HY9H SK Hynix (KR) - DRAM & NAND memory for AI

$MU (+1,17%) Micron (US) - Memory solutions for AI workloads

my number 1 in the sector is ASML

Sensors & perception (senses of robots)

$SONY Sony (JP) - image sensors, market leader

$6861 (+0,79%) Keyence (JP) - Industrial sensors & vision systems

$CGNX (+0,53%) Cognex (US) - Machine Vision, precise image processing

my number 1 in the sector is Keyence

Actuators & motion (muscles of robots)

$IFX (+0,6%) Infineon (DE) - power electronics, motor control

$6594 (+2,33%) Nidec (JP) - World market leader for electric motors

$PH Parker-Hannifin (US) - hydraulics/pneumatics, motion technology

$6481 (+0,41%) THK (JP) - Linear guides & actuators

my number 1 in the sector is Parker-Hannifin

Communication, cloud & infrastructure (nerves & data flow)

$QCOM (+0,64%) Qualcomm (US) - Mobile & Edge Chips

$AMZN (+0,6%) Amazon AWS (US) - Cloud & AI infrastructure

$MSFT (+0,28%) Microsoft Azure (US) - Cloud, AI services

$CSCO (+0,2%) Cisco (US) - Networks & Security

$VRT Vertiv Holdings (US) - Data Center Infrastructure

my number 1 in the sector is Microsoft

End Applications & Platforms (robots themselves)

$TSLA (+0,1%) Tesla (US) - humanoid robot Optimus

$ABBN (+0,22%) ABB (CH/SE) - Robotics & Automation

$6954 (+0,4%) Fanuc (JP) - industrial robots & CNC systems

$7012 (+2,22%) Kawasaki Heavy Industries (JP) - industrial robots

PAL Robotics (ES) - humanoid robots (TALOS, ARI, TIAGo) - not a listed company

Neura Robotics (DE) - cognitive humanoid robots - not a listed company

Universal Robots (DK) - cobots

my number 1 in the sector is Tesla

🇪🇺 Top 10 European key companies for humanoid robotics

$ASML (+0,85%)
ASML (NL)

World market leader in EUV lithography - no modern chips for AI & robotics without ASML.

$IFX (+0,6%) Infineon (DE)

Leading in power electronics & motor control - crucial for actuators of humanoid robots.

$STM (+0%)
STMicroelectronics (FR/IT)

Sensors, microcontrollers & power chips - the basis for control & perception.

$SAP (+0,5%)
SAP (DE)

ERP & data platforms, important for integrating humanoid robots into industrial processes.

$SIE (+0,11%)
Siemens (DE)

Industrial software, automation, digital twin - key for engineering & lifecycle management.

$KU2 KUKA (EN)

Robotics pioneer, industrial robots & automation - know-how for humanoid motion mechanics.

PAL Robotics (ES) - not a listed company

Specialist for humanoid robots (TALOS, ARI, TIAGo), internationally used in research & service.

Neura Robotics (DE) - Not a listed company

Young high-tech company, develops cognitive humanoid robots with advanced AI (4NE-1).

Universal Robots (DK) - Not a listed company

Market leader for cobots - platform for safe human-robot collaboration.

Engineered Arts (UK) - not a listed company

Develops humanoid robots such as Amecaknown for realistic facial expressions & gestures - important for HRI (Human-Robot Interaction)

🌏 Top 10 Asian key companies for humanoid robotics

$2330
TSMC (Taiwan)

World's largest semiconductor foundry, produces high-end chips (e.g. Nvidia, AMD, Apple) - no AI hardware without TSMC.

$005930
Samsung Electronics (South Korea)

Foundry, memory, logic chips, image sensors - extremely broadly positioned in robotics components.

$HY9H
SK Hynix (KR) - Memory

$SONY
Sony (Japan)

Market leader in CMOS image sensors, essential for robotic vision & perception.

$6861 (+0,79%)
Keyence (Japan)

Sensor technology & machine vision for industrial automation, widely used in robotics.

$6954 (+0,4%)
Fanuc (Japan)

Industrial robots & CNC systems, one of the most important manufacturers of robotics hardware worldwide.

$6506 (+1,47%)
Yaskawa Electric (Japan)

Drives, motion control & robot arms - relevant for humanoid motion control.

$6594 (+2,33%)
Nidec (Japan)

World market leader for electric motors (from mini motors to high-performance drives).

$7012 (+2,22%)
Kawasaki Heavy Industries (JP) - Industrial robots

$9618 (-0,34%)
JD.com (China)

Driver for robotics in e-commerce & logistics, invests in humanoid robotics applications

$PDD (+0,22%)
$601318
$EH
$OKTA (+0,77%)
$MDB (+0,4%)
$3690 (-1,64%)
$KSS (+0,55%)
$ANF
$CRWD (+0,68%)
$SNOW (+0,53%)
$HPQ (+0,05%)
$NTNX (+0,7%)
$NVDA (+0,18%)
$DHER (-0,51%)
$LI (-1,57%)
$DELL (+0,94%)
$S (-0,17%)
$IREN (+4,13%)
$ULTA (+0,51%)
$MRVL (+2,59%)
$AFRM (+0,62%)
$ADSK (+0,53%)
$BABA (+0,34%)

What's going on? Just in time after I bought $ADSK (+0,53%) I bought yesterday, it's down 10%.

It's interesting that the share doesn't fall all day but in short, strong spurts every now and then. Do you think these are big instis or insider sales?

$ADSK (+0,53%)

With a market capitalization of $55.4 billion, Autodesk (ADSK) has become a major player in the CAD and engineering software industry. From architects to mechanical engineers, Autodesk's suite of software has influenced the way professionals design and build. Autodesk is best known for its flagship product AutoCAD, a cross-industry design software. It serves professionals in architecture, construction, engineering, manufacturing, and digital media and entertainment.

Although Autodesk shares are down 8.6% year to date, Wall Street sees huge long-term potential thanks to its subscription-based model, artificial intelligence (AI)-based innovations and strong financials, and therefore rates the company as a "strong buy". Let's find out why.

Autodesk has proven resilience

Autodesk utilizes a subscription model that ensures a steady stream of recurring revenue. Its most popular products include Revit, Fusion 360, Maya, Inventor and BIM Collaborate Pro. Despite economic fluctuations, the company has demonstrated financial stability.

In the fourth quarter of financial year 2025, total revenue increased by 12% year-on-year to USD 1.64 billion, exceeding the consensus estimate by USD 7.01 million. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) amounted to USD 2.29, exceeding analysts' expectations and increasing by 9.6% year-on-year. Total billings increased 23% year-over-year to $2.11 billion. These figures underscore Autodesk's ability to expand despite major market challenges. Subscription revenue increased 14% and accounted for more than 92% of total revenue in the quarter, providing consistency and predictability. As more customers adopt cloud-based design solutions, Autodesk is well positioned to continue to grow its revenue. The net revenue retention rate was between 100% and 110%. In addition, the current (remaining performance obligation or RPO), which represents revenue expected over the next 12 months, was $4.46 billion.

In financial year 2025, total revenue increased by 12% to USD 6.13 billion, while adjusted earnings per share increased by 11.4% to USD 8.47 per share.

Autodesk is increasing its focus on cloud-based design and AI-powered solutions and shifting internal resources to critical areas such as industry clouds and platform development. As a result, the company announced a global restructuring plan that will result in a 9% reduction in headcount and affect approximately 1,350 employees. The company anticipates pre-tax restructuring costs of between USD 135 and 150 million.

During the fourth quarter earnings conference call, CEO Andrew Anagnost emphasized Autodesk's leadership in cloud-based design and manufacturing and highlighted notable customer partnerships such as Power Design and MSC Industrial Supply. Management also discussed the company's long-term vision to increase profitability by entering high-growth segments such as construction and infrastructure. The company generated free cash flow of USD 1.57 billion in financial year 2025 and expects to generate between USD 2.07 billion and USD 2.175 billion in financial year 2026.

Autodesk's growth trend appears to be strong as the company has raised its full-year earnings guidance. It expects revenue between $6.9 billion and $6.97 billion and adjusted earnings per share between $9.34 and $9.67. This would correspond to sales growth of 13% on average and earnings growth of around 12.2% in the 2026 financial year.

What is the price target for Autodesk shares?

The analysts remain optimistic about Autodesk and rate the company as a "strong buy".

Of the 26 analysts covering ADSK stock, 18 rate it a "Strong Buy", one rates it a "Moderate Buy" and seven rate it a "Hold". The average price target of USD 336.92 suggests that the share price could rise by 25% from its current level. In addition, the high estimate of USD 400 indicates that the share has a price potential of 50% over the next twelve months.

Long-term investors could benefit significantly as the company expands its AI capabilities, cloud solutions and presence in emerging markets. Autodesk's strong fundamentals and growth trajectory make it an attractive growth stock for long-term investors with a high risk appetite.

https://www.barchart.com/story/news/31480079/analysts-think-this-strong-buy-growth-stock-can-surge-50-in-the-next-12-months

Autodesk Q3 2024 $ADSK (+0,53%)

RevenueAutodesk generated revenue from subscription plans of USD 1.46 billion, an increase of 11% compared to the previous year (12% at constant exchange rates).

Net revenue retention rate: Remained in the range of 100% to 110% at constant exchange rates, demonstrating stable customer retention.

GAAP operating incomeIncreased to USD 346 million, compared to USD 334 million in the previous year.

Non-GAAP operating incomeImproved to USD 573 million compared to USD 547 million in the previous year.

Balance sheet overview

• Total assetsUSD 10,133 million as at October 31, 2024.
• Total liabilitiesUSD 7.517 million.
• Shareholders' equityUSD 2.616 million, which represents a solid financial basis.

Details of the profit and loss account

• GAAP operating marginWas 22%, a decrease of 2 percentage points compared to the previous year.
• Non-GAAP operating marginWas 36%, a decrease of 3 percentage points.
• GAAP earnings per share (diluted)1.27 USD, compared to 1.12 USD in the prior year.
• Non-GAAP earnings per share (diluted)USD 2.17, compared to USD 2.07.

Cash flow overview

• Cash flow from operating activitiesStrong increase to USD 209 million, an increase of USD 191 million compared to the previous year.
• Free cash flowIncreased to USD 199 million, an increase of USD 186 million.

Key figures and profitability metrics

• GAAP operating margin: 22%, reflecting slightly higher investments.
• Non-GAAP operating margin36 %, which shows continued high profitability despite the decline.

Segment information

• Sales by product family:
• AEC751 million USD (+11 % YoY).
• MFG307 million USD (+14 % YoY).
• AutoCAD and AutoCAD LT: USD 285 million (+10 % YoY).
• Sales by region:
• APAC398 million USD (+7 % YoY).
• EMEA580 million USD (+12 % YoY).
• Americas705 million USD (+10 % YoY).

Competitive position

Autodesk remains a leading player in industries with strong structural growth. The focus on digital transformation in architecture, engineering and construction (AEC) and the transition to cloud solutions in the manufacturing and media sectors strengthen the company's competitiveness.

Forecasts and comments from management

• Forecast for Q4 FY25 revenueExpected between USD 1.623 million and USD 1.638 million.
• Forecast for FY25 salesExpected between USD 5,900 million and USD 5,980 million, representing growth of 14% to 15% YoY.
• Non-GAAP operating margin for FY25Expected at 35.5% to 36%.

Risks and opportunities

• Risks: The company faces uncertainties due to global economic conditions, geopolitical tensions and possible challenges with strategic acquisitions.
• OpportunitiesAutodesk has the potential to expand its addressable market through comprehensive end-to-end solutions and the promotion of digital and cloud-based transformations.

Positive aspects

Double-digit growth in annual revenue.

Significant increase in subscription revenue.

Non-GAAP operating margins increased by approximately 300 basis points since FY23.

Substantial increase in free cash flow.

Successful strategic initiatives in the areas of digital transformation and cloud adaptation.

Negative aspects

GAAP operating margin down by 2 percentage points.

Non-GAAP operating margin down by 3 percentage points.

Deferred revenue down 9%.

Uncertainty in forecasting subscription renewals.

High exposure to international regulatory and economic risks that could impact long-term stability.

Earnings next week

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Mensch und Maschine Software SE

Company presentation

Mensch und Maschine Software SE ($MUM (+0,06%) ) is a leading provider of CAD/CAM software headquartered in Weßling, Germany. Founded in 1984, the company has developed into a major player in the field of digitization solutions for industry, construction and infrastructure. M+M employs over 1,000 people at around 75 international locations.

M+M's core business is divided into two main segments:

M+M SoftwareThis segment develops and distributes standard software solutions for CAM, BIM and CAE.

M+M Digitization This segment offers customized digitization solutions, training and consulting services.

M+M's mission is to support companies in their digital transformation and provide innovative software solutions for complex technical challenges. The company's vision is to remain the leading provider of CAD/CAM solutions in Europe and to continuously expand into new technologies and markets.

Historical development

Since its foundation, M+M has reached several important milestones:

• 1997: Stock market debut on the Neuer Markt as the eighth company.
• 2002Acquisition of the CAM specialist Open Mind AG, which expanded the expertise in the field of manufacturing software. In the same year, M+M acquired a majority stake in Dataflor AG, a developer of software for gardening and landscaping.
• 2019Acquisition of the software manufacturer Sofistik, which specializes in the calculation, dimensioning and design of construction projects.

These strategic acquisitions have helped M+M to diversify its portfolio and strengthen its market position in various industries.

Business model & core competencies

M+M's core competencies lie in its deep technical expertise in CAD/CAM software and its ability to translate complex customer needs into individual digitization solutions. The company benefits from long-standing customer relationships and a strong partner network.

Future prospects & strategic initiatives

M+M is committed to continuous innovation and expansion into new technology areas. Current growth initiatives include:

• Increased investment in BIM technologies for the construction industry.
• Expanding the range of CAM solutions for advanced manufacturing.
• Developing solutions for the digital factory and Industry 4.0.

In the medium term, M+M aims to further strengthen its market position in Europe and expand into new geographic markets.

Market position & competition

M+M has established itself as one of the leading providers of CAD/CAM solutions in Europe. The company competes with large international software companies as well as specialized niche suppliers. The main competitors include:

• $ADSK (+0,53%) (USA)
• $DSY (-1,25%) Systèmes (France)
• Siemens Digital Industries Software (Germany)

M+M differentiates itself through its strong local presence in Europe, customized solutions and comprehensive consulting and training services.

Total Addressable Market (TAM)

The global market for CAD/CAM software is expected to reach a volume of over 25 billion US dollars by 2028, with an annual growth rate of around 7%. Important growth drivers are:

• Increasing digitalization in the manufacturing industry.
• The increasing demand for BIM solutions in the construction sector.
• The growing importance of Industry 4.0 and IoT.

M+M is well positioned to benefit from these trends and further expand its market share in Europe.

Development

Sales have grown at an annual growth rate of 6%, which is acceptable. In contrast, however, net profit has grown at a 14 % CAGR, which is very positive.

In terms of turnover, the digitalization sector is significantly larger than the software sector, but contributes less to gross profit. Nevertheless, despite the lower absolute amount, the digitization sector has a better margin than software.

The gross margin is just under 54%, while the operating margin is 15% and net profit is approaching the 10% mark with an annual growth rate of 7%.

The shareholder yield is 2.6%, while the ratio of enterprise value to EBITDA is average. In addition, the ratio of net debt to EBITDA is negative.

The payout ratio is very high and could remain at around 90% for the time being, or possibly even lower. The dividend per share is rising continuously and should maintain this trend.

The capital efficiency is very good and a larger part of the distributions could be retained in order to invest in the business to gain even more market share.

Conclusion

The picture speaks for itself: with an insider share of 48% and a promising history, I am convinced that the company can achieve its goals. Earnings per share (EPS) should double in the next 4 to 5 years. The share is performing well, but is still undervalued. There is also an attractive dividend, which has been rising steadily for some time. The business case is convincing and the company's name is simply cool. The only thing that could really hinder the company is Germany, as most of its sales come from this market and the tax burden here is very high.

They could work on the presentation, as it seems a bit strange for a digital company, but ultimately it's going well.