Adobe Out, Atlassian In (twice), Fiserv Added (again), Salesforce Ordered
Time for a shake-up. After a strong September and with Q4 earnings coming up, I’ve made some moves that I’ve been weighing for weeks. The short version: I sold Adobe, added Atlassian, bought more Fiserv, and put in a new order for Salesforce at $230. I’ve outlined possible investment cases for these companies over the last weeks repeatedly, but here is a brief summary of my thoughts:
Let’s start with Adobe. I’ve just recently bought into the company, due to the highly attractive valuation and possibly overblown fears, but the more I read about the company and execution the less convinced I am that Adobe has a place in the future. Growth is slowing, integration of AI feels half-hearted at best, and ironically, what could’ve been a catalyst might turn into a headwind. Their moat is still intact — nobody’s replacing Photoshop tomorrow — but the long-term runway doesn’t feel as clear anymore. For me, that’s enough to step aside. Adobe might still be alive in 5 years’ time, but will the stock look better? Will growth re-accelerate? Who knows, but I see better opportunities in the software space right now.
Atlassian, on the other hand, is basically the mirror image: strong moat, sticky products, and a SaaS sector that’s been beaten down to levels where risk/reward tilts in investors’ favor. The software selloff has been overdone, and Atlassian looks like one of the few names positioned to actually benefit from AI integration instead of being disrupted by it. That’s exactly the kind of asymmetric bet I want to make right now. The company shows no sign of a slowing business, has an almost 5% forward FCF yield, and just hit profitability. This is an opportunity in a company suffering from a broad negative momentum swing in software, rather than specific issues regarding the business. My first order was filled at $150 today, and as I’ve been reading more and more throughout the day, I decided to add another stack at $150 later in the evening.
Then there’s Fiserv. Nothing new to say that I haven’t said before: a compounding machine, structurally growing in payments and fintech infrastructure, and still trading at multiples that feel like a value stock rather than a growth powerhouse. That combination is rare, and I’m happy to keep adding. Forward P/E sits below 15, while net income is growing by almost 20%. What more do you want? From a mature, sticky FinTech giant?
Finally, Salesforce. I’ve been holding it for a while, but I’ve now placed an order to add more at $230. It’s the undisputed leader in CRM, cheaper than peers, and like Atlassian, I think AI is a catalyst here rather than a threat. The setup is too good to ignore and management has proven flawless execution over time. FCF yield sits at more than 6%, which seems laughable for a company of Salesforce’s caliber. However, I don’t mind it. What better time to add more?
So that’s the lineup change: Adobe out, Atlassian in, Fiserv added, Salesforce close. All businesses I believe will do well over the next years and bless daring investors with a healthy recovery rally.
“Be greedy when others are fearful.” — Warren Buffett
