Apple

I started investing at the end of 2022 / beginning of 2023. My first stocks were Apple and Amazon, which I invested in back then. In December 2022, I read some articles about stocks and artificial intelligence and thought that Nvidia might be a great investment. At that time, I took a big risk and invested almost all my money in Nvidia - about 15,000 to 20,000 euros.

Since then, my life has changed. I have now sold about 30% of my Nvidia shares and invested in other shares and ETFs. I know my Nvidia position is still very large, but I really believe it has further growth potential. I don't expect 100% growth, but I think 20-30% is achievable.

I just wanted to share my short story of how one investment changed my whole life. I am 25 years old and work as a nurse .

$NVDA (+3,39%)
$AAPL (+0,11%)
$AMZN (+1,89%)

What market dominance!

Everyone wants it: $NVDA (+3,39%)

Awesome!

$AAPL (+0,11%)
$META (-0,73%)
$AMZN (+1,89%)
$TSLA (+0,51%)

https://www.faz.net/aktuell/finanzen/wie-hoch-kann-nvidia-noch-steigen-ein-boersen-abenteuer-110128613.html

Coinbase
$COIN (+4,5%) has announced that Apple Pay
$AAPL (+0,11%) can now be used for all fiat-to-crypto purchases via the Coinbase Onramp.

Photo: Coinbase

03.12.2024

Apple at another record high + Hedge fund sells Nvidia and buys SMC, Palantir and AMD + China and Cyber Monday boost consumer stocks

Apple with another record high

• The shares of Apple $AAPL (+0,11%) shares continued Friday's record high at the start of the new trading week. The shares recently traded 1.4 percent higher at 240.65 US dollars, making them one of the top stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial . This makes the iPhone group the most valuable company in the world with a market capitalization of around
• market capitalization of around 3.6 trillion US dollars, ahead of Nvidia $NVDA (+3,39%) with a
• market capitalization of around 3.4 trillion dollars
• At the close of trading, the share price fell slightly to USD 239.59, which is still an increase of 0.95%.

Largest hedge fund in the world has sold Nvidia & is betting on Super Micro & Palantir

• Bridgewater Associates has sold its position in Nvidia $NVDA (+3,39%) in the third quarter and instead sold more shares of Super Micro Computer $SMCI (+3,6%), Palantir Technologies $PLTR (-3,89%) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) $AMD (+0,66%) were purchased.
• The fund announced the share transactions in a form filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission.
• Bridgewater sold 1.8 million Nvidia shares to end the third quarter with 4.8 million shares of the artificial intelligence chip maker....

https://www.wallstreet-online.de/nachricht/18773922-groesster-hedgefonds-welt-bridgewater-nvidia-aktien-verkauft-wettet-super-micro-palantir

China and Cyber Monday boost consumer stocks

• The main winners were shares of luxury goods manufacturers in Europe such as LVMH $MC (-0,34%) and Hermes $RMS (+0,09%) but also Adidas $ADS (+0,17%)
  in the DAX rose by 3.2 percent.
• They benefited from an upward revision of the China Purchasing Managers' Index in November.
• The market is hoping that higher income from their Chinese customers will also boost their willingness to spend. In addition, the ongoing "Cyber Monday" drove the shares of consumer and household goods manufacturers. Also in demand were Munich Re $MUV2 (+0,49%) with a 2.9 percent premium.

Tuesday, stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

• ex-dividend of individual stocks

Thales EUR 0.85

ORANGE 0.30 EUR

Linde USD 1.39

• Quarterly figures / company dates USA / Asia

20:00 AT&T Capital Markets Day

22:05 Salesforce quarterly figures

• Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe

07:00 Swiss Life Investor Day 2024

• Economic data

08:30 CH: Consumer prices Switzerland November FORECAST: n/a previous: -0.1% yoy/+0.6% yoy

15:00 EU: ECB monthly/bimonthly report on APP/PEPP program

16:00 US: Number of job openings, quits and layoffs (Jolts) October Number of job openings PROGNOSIS: n.a. previously: 7.4 million

Hello dear community,

Since I'm not the best investor, I'm trying to find another way to try my luck using my background in the computer science industry. Artificial intelligence (AI) is often a controversial topic, so let's call it by its proper name. I want to use a neural network model - or a combination of several - to predict an estimated price value for a particular stock. With this post, I not only want to show you how I approach this endeavor, but also give you some knowledge.

Let's start with the basics

My current approach is to use an LSTM model that receives as input the daily price data of the last 20+ years as well as calculated indicators such as the MACD.

LSTM model

An LSTM model stands for "Long Short-Term Memory Model" and is well suited to my project, as it doesn't just look at the last price to predict the next one. It has a so-called offset, which enables the model to analyze the last 60 days simultaneously, for example, without having to define this manually in the input. It can also memorize both long and short patterns.

Input and output

As already mentioned, the model receives the daily prices, volatility and various indicators as input. These inputs can have a significant impact on the forecast, as neither too much nor too little data should be passed. My current input is as follows:

['close', 'open', 'high', 'low', 'volume', 'SMA', 'RSI', 'MACD']

In the output, the model only returns the close price.

Hypertuning

As a model can vary in size in terms of the number of nodes, a lot of testing is required here. This process is known as hypertuning. Numerous models are trained with different configurations in order to find out which one works best.

You can think of it like this: It is not good if the model's "brain" is too small, as it will then be unable to memorize certain patterns. On the other hand, it shouldn't be too big either, otherwise the model will start to memorize all the data. In this case, it practically knows the entire history of the share by heart. If it then tries to predict something that it has not memorized, it will fail miserably. This phenomenon is called "overfitting".

How good is my current model?

To be honest: it's not very good yet, but it shows potential in this approach.

For my test I used $AAPL (+0,11%) (Apple) and used the input described above. Here is the output for a prediction where the model was fed with data it has never seen before during the training process:

You can see that there are still scaling issues as the prediction does not start with the same price as the actual price. However, the model recognizes a trend towards the end of the 7-day forecast, which is also confirmed by the actual price.

Now that you have an insight into my project, I plan to post a larger update once a month. I will present improvements and report on other approaches that I have tried out.

I welcome any suggestions on this topic or feedback on the format of this post. I would also like to try out the model on other stocks. So I'm open to suggestions here too.

Have a good week from the coding corner!

Depotupdate November - A successful month with a clear focus

November was a strong month, both in terms of returns and strategic realignment. The current portfolio value is 48.745,46 €with a solid monthly return of 6,86 %which corresponds to a price gain of 3.131,04 € . It is a further step towards a long-term and growth-oriented portfolio.

Activities in November: purchases and sales

Purchases:

S&P 500 $VUSA (+0,36%)
via savings plan

The regular savings plan with 930 € in the S&P 500 was executed as usual. This basis offers stability and long-term diversification in the portfolio.

Bitcoin $BTC (+0,58%)
The individual purchases with a value of 2.361,92 € reflect the conviction that Bitcoin will continue to gain in importance as an asset class in the long term. With a current weighting of 5,47 % it remains a tactical addition.

Sales:

Altria Group $MO (-0,99%)
The position was sold with a plus of just under 30 % which corresponds to a volume of 1.340 € corresponds to a volume of €1,340. The tobacco giant no longer fits in with the growth strategy, which focuses on innovative and future-oriented companies.

LVMH $MC (-0,34%)
This position was also sold, with a total value of 800 € and a loss of 280,74 €. Despite the quality of the company, the focus is now more on growth-oriented stocks, which is why LVMH no longer fits the strategy.

Portfolio structure and weighting

Security type weighting:

• 49.47 % ETFs - A stable anchor, particularly through the S&P 500.
• 45.05 % equities - The focus remains on individual stocks with potential for growth.
• 5.47 % Bitcoin - A small but increasingly relevant addition.

Top 5 sectors:

IT (25.19 %) - Driver in the portfolio, led by NVIDIA $NVDA (+3,39%) and Apple $AAPL (+0,11%)
Financial services (23.89 %) - Reliable returns with Allianz $ALV (+0,64%) and BlackRock $BLK (-1,08%)
Defensive consumer goods (16.05%) - Stability through P&G $PG (-0,15%) and Walmart $WMT (+0,61%)
Cyclical consumer goods (7 %) - Moderate exposure with potential.

Industrial goods (6.32%) - A diversifying addition.

Country allocation:

• USA (80 %): The dominant market in the portfolio.
• Germany (6.6%): Local stocks such as Allianz and Siemens.
• Other countries (5.54%): Global diversification.
• UK (1.08 %) and France (0.90 %): Smaller positions.

Deep Dive: The top 5 positions

NVIDIA (7.72 %):

Leader in AI development and graphics processors. NVIDIA remains the largest position and a key stock in the portfolio.

Allianz (6.16%):

A defensive anchor with stable dividends and strong market position in the insurance and wealth sector.

Apple (6.03%):

With a focus on services, wearables and technological innovation, Apple remains an essential holding.

Microsoft $MSFT (+1,4%)
(5,65 %):

Leader in cloud services and AI solutions. Microsoft remains a long-term favorite.

BlackRock (5.63%):

The world's largest asset manager benefits from rising capital inflows and remains a mainstay.

Top movers in November

Winner:

• Walmart (+15.55%): Convincing quarterly figures and strategic e-commerce expansion.
• Costco $COST (+0,6%)
  (+14,14 %): Solid performer thanks to strong member retention.
• P&G (+10.89 %): Resilience to crisis pays off.
• S&P 500 ETF (+8.38 %): Benefits from the general market upswing.
• Waste Management $WM (+0,29%)
  (+8,27 %): Stable income from a defensive business model.

Loser:

• Hercules Capital (-2.38%): The BDC specialist had a weak month. A strategic review of this position is imminent.

Conclusion and outlook

November was a very successful monthboth in terms of returns and the strategic realignment.

Key decisions:

• The focus remains on long-term growth through technology and quality stocks.
• The sales of Altria and LVMH show that the portfolio is being consistently adapted to the strategy.
• Hercules Capital is under review and could soon be removed from the portfolio as it no longer fits the growth strategy.

Long-term perspective:

With the savings plan and targeted individual purchases, the portfolio is running on "autopilot". The combination of patience, strategic adjustment and a clear focus on growth stocks strengthens the foundation for a successful future.

The portfolio remains on course - an exciting month with a clear direction!

Another new addition to the savings plan portfolio. $NVDA (+3,39%) is not necessarily known for glorious dividends, but that was not the case $AAPL (+0,11%) not when I bought it in 2013 and today I am at 8% dividend yield pa.

This time no other position had to give way.

Episode 66 "Buy High. Sell Low."

Subscribe to the podcast to get Bayer kicked out of the DAX!

00:00:00 Axon Enterprise $AXON (+1,64%)

00:17:29 Deutsche Telekom, T-Mobile USA $DTE (-1,13%)
$TMUS (-0,58%)

00:30:00 Walmart $WMT (+0,61%)

00:44:40 Nvidia $NVDA (+3,39%)

01:02:20 Bitcoin $BTC (+0,58%)

01:14:00 MicroStrategy $MSTR (+0,46%)

01:46:20 Rocket Lab $RKLB (+1,28%)

01:51:20 Bayer $BAYN (+0,15%)

Spotify $SPOT (+1,8%)

https://open.spotify.com/episode/1IzU4b1WwOK8WiYsRE5vRN?si=JStG9v47TvKTMYMTynmNwA

YouTube $GOOGL (+1,82%)
$GOOG (+1,75%)

https://youtu.be/pNH8ub-QTM0

Apple Podcast $AAPL (+0,11%)

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/buy-high-sell-low-techaktien-und-global-stock-flash/id1695869891