Today I am analyzing three major luxury goods stocks following weak quarterly figures: Hermès, LVMH and Kering. All three shares have recently come under heavy pressure.
👜 Hermès analysis
Hermès reported sales growth of just 1.4%. Adjusted for currency effects, growth amounted to 5.6%; 7.1% had been expected. The regional picture was mixed: Asia +2%; USA +17% and therefore very strong.
The share fell by 15% at times and is now trading around 27.5% below fair value. At the same time, it is around 48% below its all-time high.
The range between EUR 1,350 and EUR 1,650 appears interesting from a technical perspective.
👠 Kering analysis Kering published a profit warning for the first half of the year of -40 to -45%. Gucci, which contributes around 45% to sales and is particularly weak in Asia, remains a particular burden.
The share is trading only slightly below fair value, while the fundamentals have clearly deteriorated in recent years. I believe a further decline of around 20% towards EUR 190 is possible.
💼 LVMH analysis LVMH reported the seventh consecutive quarter of declining sales in the key Fashion & Leather Goods segment; most recently -2%. Although the jewelry segment grew by 7%, it only accounts for around 12% of sales.
LVMH has a broad regional base: Asia, Europe and the USA each contribute around 25%. However, no region is currently providing clear growth impetus. On the chart, the share is just above EUR 440. A further decline of up to 25% remains possible.
The 10-year comparison:
- Hermès +120%
- LVMH +10%
- Kering -60%
⚠️ Conclusion Hermès looks the most exciting after the setback. LVMH remains neutral, while Kering continues to present the weakest fundamental picture. What would be your favorite in the current environment? $RMS (+1,16%) , $MC (+0,29%) or would it be $KER (-3,67%) ?
