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Why I will never buy gold, why you shouldn't either and why the "safe haven" is an illusion. ⚓️🔥

Hey dear Getquiners, honest question: Do you think gold is crisis-proof?

In this post, I explain why I think gold is one of the worst assets of all and why the "scarcity" on the market is often a lie - because all that glitters is not gold 😉

1. the asset in a deep sleep 😴

Anyone who bought gold at the high in 1980 had to 26 years to get back to zero in nominal terms. Adjusted for inflation, this was a financial disaster. Is an asset really "stable in value" if it takes half a working lifetime to make up for mere losses? After the 2011 high, it also took approx. 9 years (until 2020) until the price broke out sustainably.

2. the gold that wasn't actually there. 👻

Gold is sold as a "limited resource". It has to be painstakingly mined, is physically limited and cannot be conjured up. But what if it is possible on paper?

The Morgan Stanley scandal: In 2007, it came to light that Morgan Stanley had not physically bought or stored gold for many clients at all. The bank only held "paper positions", but still collected the fees for the (non-existent) vault storage. The clients were not holding hard assets, just hot air.

The Bre-X scandal (1997): The company Bre-X Minerals claimed to have discovered the largest gold deposit in the world. Geologists "salted" the drill samples with gold dust (even from their own jewelry!) to keep up appearances. The shares shot up to a value of over 6 billion dollars before everything collapsed.

This begs the question: is the price of gold really linked to physical scarcity, or is it often just a hype chart created by expert opinions and blind bank confidence?

3. the volatility lie: 10% crash in 28 minutes? ⏱️📉

It is often said that gold is so great because it is less volatile. But is that true? Let's jump to January 30, 2026: On this day, gold lost almost 28 minutes almost 7 % of its value in just 28 minutes. Over the entire day, it was around 14 %. Don't even get me started on silver (30% fluctuation... cough).

Another example is the April 12, 2013At that time, sell orders for over 400 tons of gold were placed on the Comex in New York within a very short space of time (approx. 15% of annual global production). Gold plunged in two days by 15,5 % in two days. The absurdity: Not a gram of physical gold was moved. They were pure "paper promises". Someone pressed the sell button without ever having owned the metal.

My conclusion: For me, gold is neither stable nor crisis-proof. It is highly volatile and - most importantly - not protected by financial constructs. not infinitely limited. It can be "printed" on paper as much as you like. That's why it no longer has any real value for me.

What do you think? Would you still buy or hold gold after these facts? Let me know your opinion in the comments and leave a follow for more posts like this. Next, I'll write a post on the biggest gold scandals and show you what I think are the better alternatives! 🚀

Feel free to leave feedback, criticism is also welcome, because that's the only way to learn! 😉

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29 Commenti

HoldTheMike@HoldTheMike

23H

I've been holding gold for 17 years and I'm still convinced. You could just as easily have written an article entitled "Why I will always buy gold, why you should too and why the "safe haven" is not an illusion.". Some swear by it, others consider it "one of the worst assets."
I belong to the former.

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Philip@Philipwdr

23H

@HoldTheMike First of all, respect for your discipline over 17 years! But let me ask you a purely factual question: what exactly is it that convinces you? Is it the return or the mere feeling of security? Why do you "swear by it"?

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TradingHase@TradingHase

14H

@HoldTheMike How was the performance over the 17 years?

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Soprano@Soprano

22H

I don't think gold is good because it has no productive value, see Warren Buffet. However, your arguments are wrong or rather speak in favor of gold.

1. gold has historically been an asset that yielded +-0 for a very long time and even that was enough for people and was "safe". But the price has increased tenfold in the last 20 years and there is a reason for this: the demand for gold is rising and, even more importantly, the Modern Monetary Theory. Inflation is unmanageably high. Money is only printed and backed by nothing but nuclear bombs and brute force. Government debt is constantly being increased globally according to the motto "If I have to pay, then make me pay". As a result, the value of real assets inevitably continues to rise at the same time as the level of debt.

2. you refer to the fact that gold can also be artificially created as a "danger", but this is actually the opposite. If the supply is actually much lower, the price would have to be much higher. What if it turns out that only a fraction of the securitized gold actually exists? If it is confirmed that a large proportion of the gold reserves held by the USA and Germany on paper have not been in the vaults for decades? The result would not be a crash but a rise in the price of gold to infinity.

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Philip@Philipwdr

Hey @Soprano, Exciting points! I absolutely agree with you on the analysis of the monetary system and MMT. We need real assets, no question. But I see the danger precisely in your arguments:

To be clear: For me, certificate gold and physical gold are directly related. You buy your gold in euros or dollars - so you are inevitably dependent on the market price. This determines your profit or loss. If you only hold it to buy bread rolls when the world ends, that's a completely different (pension) issue, but not an investment case.

Re 1: Where does the assumption that demand is rising healthily come from? Countries like China claim to be buying more gold than ever, but behind the scenes they are the second largest Bitcoin mining nation in the world - despite the ban! 😉 Anyone can claim to have gold without proving it. In my view, the price increase is not due to real scarcity, but to the claim of scarcity and the hype that the institutions are fueling.

Re 2: You say the price should rise to infinity if the lie is exposed. In theory, yes. But in practice, that means the market will collapse. If it turns out that your paper gold doesn't even exist, why would the certificate still be worth anything? It would be a worthless promise, while the price stands in a vacuum, but nobody trades anymore.

Anyone who holds gold in their portfolio ultimately trusts that the institutions are playing the game fairly - and according to your own MMT analysis, that is precisely what they are not doing. Who can guarantee you that they won't keep the price artificially low for another 50 years?

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Soprano@Soprano

14Min

@Philipwdr That's a lot of points now. For example, I don't understand the contradiction between gold and Bitcoin for the Chinese. And why you still doubt the scarcity of money in 1. and say in 2. that most gold is just made up - so what?

I think that gold is already scarce. So the supply is low, but tends to increase. Theoretically, gold itself has minimal inflation. The fact that there is more of it rather than less is also the most important reason why it should go sideways under normal circumstances.

The fact that the price has risen so sharply has nothing to do with the (official) supply, but only with demand. Gold is in greater demand than ever before because confidence in the system and in the leading currencies is at its lowest for 100 years. As long as there is a trend towards more distrust in politics, the gold trend will continue.

And of course it makes no sense to buy paper gold if you buy gold because you distrust the system. After all, we are talking about gold that really exists, the price of which would rise if it turned out that the actual quantity was less than the specified quantity.

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D.S.@Crash-Propheteus

21H

Let's be honest: I've rarely read such garbage, even here. But typically at the weekend, when there's no real news, either the stock market crash is predicted or garbage like this is produced......🙈

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Musikerie@Musikerie

21H

Normally I would aim for a maximum of 10% but at the moment I still have almost 40% mining stocks in my portfolio and have the rebalancing on hold. One of my oldest positions is a gold fund and it currently stands at +943% / 22.48 p.a. ... I don't see any underperformance 😁

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Darkwing Donkey@DonkeyInvestor

21H

Best post about gold on getquin. Apart from mine. Love 🥰

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Dividendenopi👴@Dividendenopi

18H

I bought gold before these "facts" and I still have it; despite these "facts" I have already bought and sold "paper gold". I will continue to buy physical gold when it suits me. But I'm definitely looking forward to your next post and what alternatives you can offer me then. Then we can continue the discussion. Until then 🤗

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aminemeskni@Aminmeskini

23H

I see it the same way ❤️

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Philip@Philipwdr

23H

@Aminmeskini Hey, very nice to find like-minded people here. 😄

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yieldhunter@randomdude

23H

I am completely agnostic about the various asset classes. Gold, for example, has helped GTAA outperform the stock market wonderfully over the last year.

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NichtRelevant@NichtRelevant

19H

Hm. Historically, all currencies have ceased to exist at some point. Gold, on the other hand, is still around. 😏

For me, gold is not a classic investment because it is not a company and therefore has no operational business model that generates profit. There is therefore only a speculative and value-preserving function here (despite admittedly existing fluctuations). And a function for catastrophic crises in which traditional currencies could collapse or depreciate sharply.

I therefore think it is very sensible to have a small proportion of your own assets in gold.

The argument with the papers or certificates on gold and the 'multipliability' mentioned in this way is also used in other areas. I would therefore always hold physical gold myself as a crisis hedge (!).
Any securitized promises are just paper and gold is gold. 🪙

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Philip@Philipwdr

@NichtRelevant Interesting point! If you see gold purely as insurance, then physical ownership is logical. But for me, the comparison is flawed:

Firstly, the value of your bullion is still determined daily by the 'paper gold system' on the stock exchange - so you remain on the drip of the system you want to hedge in terms of price.

Secondly, if the scenario occurs where currencies are completely worthless and the system collapses, gold is probably the least of my problems. In a real 'Mad Max' world, water, medicine or tools are the real currency, not a heavy lump of metal you can't eat.

That's why I forgo this expensive insurance (in the form of lost returns) and prefer to focus on other assets. 😉 If the system collapses, my portfolio will only be of secondary interest to me.

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NichtRelevant@NichtRelevant

@Philipwdr That is another approach. Some people who take crisis precautions buy gold and silver so that they can exchange these assets for something edible and a flight to South America if necessary. Others buy a water filter, canned food and a rifle with sufficient ammunition. Still others don't care about crisis prevention and assume that an existential crisis won't occur or is so big that humanity won't survive it anyway 🙂

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Walter S.@Roots

22H

Gold is the only real currency.

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Darkwing Donkey@DonkeyInvestor

21H

@Roots Nope. I don't know of a single store where I can pay for goods with gold.

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Walter S.@Roots

20H

you describe that gold is not a common means of payment....more not...
gold serves as a real equivalent value for money...

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Darkwing Donkey@DonkeyInvestor

19H

@Roots You write that gold is a currency. What constitutes a currency?

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capital_captain_2693@capital_captain_2693

18H

@DonkeyInvestor I know a few people in the area who accept it like cash. But the exchange rate is often worse 😉

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Sparfuchs@Der_Sparfuchs

I know I shouldn't get involved in this discussion, but... 😆 Many gold coins are official legal tender in the respective countries, which you can use to pay at the till in any store. I could even imagine that you would become their official favorite customer and the sellers would be eager to serve you 😄. In Switzerland, for example, you can pay with the "Goldvreneli" (minted face value CHF 20.-), in the euro area with the 1 ounce gold Vienna Philharmonic (minted face value EUR 100.-) and in England with the 1 ounce gold Britannia (minted face value GBP 100.-). The material value of the bullion coins is of course many times higher and therefore this payment option is probably only possible in theory and was probably already a bad deal at the time when these coins were first minted 😅.

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Philip@Philipwdr

@Roots That was absolutely true historically, but today gold is more a derivative of the fiat system than a currency in its own right.

Why is that? Because today you measure the value of your gold in euros or dollars. As long as the price on the stock exchange is determined by 'paper gold', your physical holdings are completely dependent on the system in terms of price.

Try paying your rent with a gold bar or buying a bread roll at the bakery with some gold dust. For me, gold is an object of speculation that is traded in dollars.

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Walter S.@Roots

@Philipwdr is absolutely right... all good...
My comment referred to the original post...

nonetheless...if I had to choose whether to put 1000 dollars, 1000 euros or the equivalent in gold in my safe, then I would definitely take gold... nobody can reprint that

Regards

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Serkan@CashflowPrince

22H

I also think that an admixture is not wrong in the long term, for diversification.

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Olli@Olli68

20H

Gold always has the same value. Gold has maintained a constant purchasing power for centuries, so its rising price primarily reflects the gradual devaluation of fiat currencies. This real currency devaluation often significantly exceeds the official inflation rates, as government statistics usually only inadequately reflect the actual loss of purchasing power compared to hard assets. Gold therefore acts as a more honest measure of value, revealing the discrepancy between reported inflation and actual currency devaluation.

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Uwe@SchlaubiSchlumpf

19H

@Olli68 an ounce of gold is always worth an ounce of gold

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yieldhunter@randomdude

Gold fixes it.

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Gehebeltes-EFH@Gehebeltes-EFH

Rage Bait

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