23H·

MicroStrategy - a business model that the market often thinks too short

$MSTR (+0,73%)

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MicroStrategy is often reduced to a simple formula: "Bitcoin proxy". However, this falls short. Under Michael Saylor, the company has built up a hybrid business and capital market model that is virtually unique on the stock market.


At its core, MicroStrategy consists of two levels:


a profitable, established enterprise software business

a consistently implemented Bitcoin treasury strategy


It is precisely the combination of these two elements that makes the company interesting for many investors.


1. the operational foundation: software business as an anchor of stability


MicroStrategy is not an empty vehicle. The company has been selling business intelligence and analytics software to major customers, public authorities and corporations for decades. This business generates recurring revenue, has long-standing customer relationships and provides operating cash flow.


Even if the software business is no longer growing strongly, it still fulfills a crucial function:

It reduces the existential risk and enables MicroStrategy to implement capital market strategies that pure holding structures could not. This basis is often underestimated, but is essential for the overall model.


2. the Bitcoin strategy: not a trade, but capital allocation


Michael Saylor positions Bitcoin not as a speculation, but as a long-term store of value and strategic reserve. MicroStrategy actively uses its balance sheet to systematically accumulate Bitcoin - financed through convertible bonds, equity issues and operational funds.


Crucial here:


  • Purchases are cyclical, not impulsive
  • The time horizon is multi-year, not quarterly driven
  • The strategy is communicated transparently and implemented consistently



This creates an effect that many investors are specifically looking for:

MicroStrategy acts like a listed Bitcoin leverage, but with a structural underpinning.


3 The leverage effect: why MicroStrategy reacts differently to Bitcoin


A central point of interest in the share is the asymmetrical price momentum. Historically, it has been shown that MicroStrategy reacts disproportionately when Bitcoin prices rise. Reasons for this include:


  • the balance sheet leverage due to debt capital
  • the expectation of future Bitcoin purchases
  • institutional capital that cannot invest directly in Bitcoin



At the same time, setbacks often lead to stronger corrections - which in turn opens up entry opportunities for investors who take a long-term view.


4. current price level: setbacks instead of a trend break


After the last strong movements, the share has corrected noticeably. Important here:

Neither the Bitcoin strategy nor the company's direction have changed fundamentally. The decline is primarily driven by the market and sentiment.


For many investors, this is precisely the point at which MicroStrategy becomes interesting again:


  • well below the highs
  • with unchanged strategic orientation
  • with continued clear communication from management



Those who see MicroStrategy not as a short-term trade but as a strategic position often evaluate such phases differently than the pure daily chart.


5 For whom the model makes sense - and for whom not


MicroStrategy is not a share for everyone. It is particularly suitable for investors who:


  • have a clear belief in Bitcoin
  • consciously accept volatility
  • are looking for stock market leverage without holding coins themselves



Those looking for stability, dividends or predictable cash flows, on the other hand, are unlikely to find what they are looking for here.


Conclusion


MicroStrategy is not a traditional software company or a pure Bitcoin ETF. It is a deliberately constructed capital market model that focuses on long-term monetary trends. It is worth re-evaluating the share soberly, especially after strong setbacks.


Not because of short-term price targets - but because of the structure behind it.


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13 Commenti

immagine del profilo
How "massive" is the basis of the software business?
3
immagine del profilo
@Malte123 That was my first thought too! Software business is ridiculous and almost completely negligible.🤷🏼‍♂️
4
immagine del profilo
@All-in-or-nothing The software business is self-sustaining, i.e. it pays for its own employees and infrastructure at almost 100 %.
immagine del profilo
@Brandon90 in relation to MarketCap, growth from "own" strength and not only via asset revaluation (which btw are not cash-effective, i.e. bring 0.0 for the cash flow), the actual core business is a joke. You need exactly 1 employee to accumulate Bitcoin...
1
immagine del profilo
@All-in-or-nothing I don't think investors are buying the shares because of the software business. It just runs with it. The software business gives the company the status of an operating company instead of an investment fund. This is legally important in order to remain listed in certain indices such as the MSCI World or NASDAQ...
1
immagine del profilo
@Brandon90 The article presents it as if the software business is significant. But it doesn't, apart from the legal aspects as you say.
1
immagine del profilo
@Malte123 well, maybe the software will become the second Palantir 😂
2
immagine del profilo
@Brandon90 you, that wasn't against you at all, just the presentation in the post, which sounds as if the core business is super relevant and would contribute massively to the overall business.
1
immagine del profilo
@All-in-or-nothing I agree with you ☺️🫱🏽‍🫲🏻 it could be misunderstood. It's like saying Waymo is the driving force behind Alphabet 🤪
1
immagine del profilo
@Brandon90 That's exactly what I was getting at🤝😉😅
immagine del profilo
Nice post, thanks for your effort!
For me and my portfolio, $MSTR is still nothing 😉
2
A business model that buys Bitcoin, issues shares to buy more Bitcoin, the share price rises with the Bitcoin price and new shares can be sold to get more money for Bitcoin purchases.

I don't buy that, it's a Ponzi scheme.
2
immagine del profilo
Nice contribution. I myself have already bought $MSTR twice and have a savings plan in place. The share price is currently extremely cheap and in an interesting support zone. In my opinion, anyone who doesn't buy now will regret it in a year's time.
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