Royal Caribbean $RCL (+1,29%) has for the first time since 2020 dividend distribution announced.
The company will pay a quarterly dividend of 0,40 $ per share, which will be paid on October 11 to shareholders of record at the close of trading on September 20.
Investing in demographic change: senior boom = portfolio boom?
Hello community,
Thank you once again for your positive response to my last article "Climate change - rising temperatures, rising portfolio".
Today I have a no less relevant topic for you: The megatrend of an ageing society.
Boring. Everyone knows it. Not interesting. Or is it?
There are trends that are omnipresent: AI, climate change, the war in Ukraine, etc.. The trend of an ageing society, on the other hand, is hardly ever heard in everyday life.
Why is that? I suspect that the story of an ageing society was already told many years ago. Every year, the population ages a little more. The frog is sitting in water that is slowly heating up. Only when it is too late does he realize how hot it is getting.
That's why it's interesting for me to look at potential profiteers right now. The hype train hasn't started yet - and perhaps it won't due to the linear development of age cohorts. But hardly any other trend is so certain and predictable - and yet still under the radar.
One request in advance: let's stay objective. Ageing is a sensitive topic that can be emotionally charged. However, in my view, moral or political discussions have no added value here as long as no investments can be derived from them. There are other platforms for that.
Background
For anyone who has not yet heard of demographic change: The baby boomer generation (born between 1946 and 1964) are also known as the "baby boomers". These generations can be found in both the USA and Europe. And this age cohort is gradually retiring. In addition, the proportion of young people in the population is decreasing, as birth rates are steadily declining after the baby boomers.
So there will be more "old people". Which companies could benefit from this development?
To keep things interesting for you, I will focus on less obvious players. Nursing homes, Big Pharma and the like, you probably already know that.
I'm interested in profiteers at second glance. Here we go.
1. tourism
An ageing society does not mean care, immobility and illness. Today's older people are much fitter than they were 20 years ago, for example. Tourism can be one of the beneficiaries here. Where do senior citizens hang out? Presumably on cruise ships 😉
Actually less interesting for me because it's "asset heavy". But cruise companies have been heavily penalized since Corona. They are also not interesting for the ESG community because they are dirty. So maybe interesting after all?
The big players $RCL (+1,29%) Royal Caribbean Cruises, Norwegian Cruise Line and $CCL (+1,45%) Carnival are probably familiar to most people. Caribbean is now also back above the pre-corona rates - in contrast to the other two. It is possible that they will follow suit.
If that's too hot for you, you could take a closer look at $MAR (+1,99%) take a closer look at Marriott. This is the largest hotel chain in the world. It can be categorized in the premium segment - which is interesting, as senior citizens can look back on an entire working life. And if they invest their money wisely, they will certainly want to (and be able to) enjoy the last stage of their lives in comfort.
Due to Corona, a look at the development of the key figures is a little distorted. Nevertheless, profits grew by around 13% p.a. over 5 years, while sales growth is estimated at 7.2% p.a..
In addition, there is a dividend yield of just under 1%, although there is still room for improvement with a payout ratio of just under 25% of free cash flow.
In my view, the stock is currently running a little too hot. Definitely something for the watch list if tourism should collapse - that happens regularly.
2. leisure & consumption
Brunswick Corporation
I had never heard of this company before my research. The company is active in the (sports) boat sector and is regarded as a leading manufacturer in this field. They sell boat electronics and drives as well as "finished" boats, from inflatable boats to large yachts.
Sales growth over 5 years: 9.4 % p.a.
Profit growth over 5 years: approx. 14 % p.a.
Plus a dividend yield of currently 2%.
Despite a cyclical industry, profit stability is 0.84.
That is strong. In addition, the share is currently trading at the level of 2022.
The leisure boat market is generally resilient and is also forecast to grow by around 5% p.a. Exciting niche value in my view.
Churchill Downs Incorporated (horse racing tracks)
$CHDN (+0,8%) Churchill Downs operates horse racing tracks, casinos and betting facilities. They host the famous Kentucky Derby at their racetrack. In itself fun for young and old, although the cliché probably focuses more on the older customer. An exciting candidate that can also remain interesting for young customers due to its segments.
The figures are a real treat:
Sales growth over 5 years: approx. 16 % p.a.
Profit growth over 5 years: approx. 22 % p.a.
Despite strong price growth, the share is fundamentally fairly valued according to my research and still offers some potential due to the growth prospects.
If I wasn't already heavily invested in gambling, this would be a hot candidate for me.
Animal welfare is of course a critical point here. But please remember: This is supposed to be about shares and investments, not about moral debates.
Acushnet Holdings Corp
If horse racing is too exciting for you, you can take a look at Acushnet Holdings Corp. $GOLF (+1,32%) . As the ticker says, it's all about golf (products). The company sells everything related to the sport.
And they have an impressive 14/15 points in the Traderfox quality check.
If you ask around in golf, you know how expensive the equipment can be. And the sport can be played well into old age.
Unfortunately, the candidate wasn't included in the share finder, so I haven't included that many key figures for you here. If you are interested, you can research the company in more detail (and perhaps share your findings here?).
3. medical care
Having dealt with two positive areas, we will now turn to the other side of the coin of ageing: the increased need for medical care. There is, of course, a wide range of companies here. I have brought along two candidates that I have repeatedly come across in my research:
Resmed
$RMD (+2,52%) Resmed's main business lies in the treatment of sleeping disorders and respiratory diseases. However, a second - currently small - segment is very exciting for the trend discussed here: software solutions, which include remote monitoring tools to make patient care more efficient. There are not only more old people - there are also fewer young people. There will certainly be resource bottlenecks (shortage of specialists) when it comes to covering the increasing need for treatment. Efficiency-enhancing options are important here.
Resmed's main business is developing magnificently. Another strong branch could be established with Software Solutions. A very exciting candidate for me.
The figures:
Sales growth over 5 years: 12.6 % p.a.
Profit growth over 5 years: 21 % p.a.
Was still very cheap six months ago. Will be on my watch list. I will get in if there is a setback.
Stryker
I have been looking for alternatives to $SYK (+0,63%) Stryker for a long time, as Stryker is probably not one of the "second glance" profiteers. They are simply too well known for that. But there's no getting around the company. Even when I was specifically looking for specialists in hip and joint implants, no other company could come close to matching the quality of Stryker's figures. In the event of a setback, I would consider buying in. Or do you know of any alternatives?
4. nursing & patient care
Let's move on to the last category: care. Sooner or later, you will need care in old age. Care is not only provided on an inpatient basis, but also on an outpatient basis. You will no doubt have seen various small cars from outpatient care services in cities. There are no monopolistic structures here; there are many small providers on the market. So how can you benefit from care? I looked around for "shovel manufacturers":
Nexus AG
$NXU (+1,69%) Nexus AG is a company for software systems for hospitals, care centers and medical practices. They optimize processes there and aim to improve patient care. In my view, this is more exciting than, for example, a player from its US counterpart ($MCK (-1,08%) ), as Europe is more affected by demographic change than the USA. And Nexus AG has not yet performed as strongly as McKesson recently.
Estimated sales growth of just under 13% p.a., estimated earnings growth of 26% p.a.
For me, it is on the watch list alongside McKesson.
Cintas
The company $CTAS (+0,15%) specializes in workwear and textiles. As boring as it sounds, the figures are impressive, as is the performance. Congratulations to all those who got in early.
In my view, the company is interesting because everyone involved needs (clean) workwear to create (care) value. And with blue-collar jobs like this, there is probably little risk that AI will make them obsolete in the next few years. After all, the company is not only active in the care textile industry.
However, despite its high quality, the company is far too expensive in my view. A P/E ratio of 44 with sales growth of <10% p.a. is high.
But: The company is also subject to a certain cyclicality. I will definitely put it on my watch list - I will get in if there is a significant setback.
That's it, my ride through the demographic stocks.
Now it's your turn:
If you don't have an opinion on this, I would be delighted to receive any feedback on my article:
I'm looking forward to your comments.
Your Money Man
Quarterly figures on 03.11.2022...
Feel free to leave a follow, because...⤵️
...at 5,000 followers there will be together with getquin, a small thank you for the community. But this post could already be created tomorrow. I look forward to it! On to today's quarterly numbers. In this post that I post every morning, I had announced what was happening today:
https://app.getquin.com/activity/ydggsOLkpb?lang=de&utm_source=sharing
$SBUX (+0,07%)
Starbucks:
Beat analyst estimates of $0.73 in the fourth quarter with earnings per share of $0.81. Revenue of $8.4 billion beat expectations of $8.33 billion.
$PYPL (+5,3%)
PayPal:
Beats analyst estimates of $0.96 in the third quarter with earnings per share of $1.08. Revenue of $6.85 billion beats expectations of $6.82 billion.
$DBX (-0,5%)
Dropbox:
Beat analyst estimates of $0.38 in the third quarter with earnings per share of $0.43. Revenue of $591 million exceeded expectations of $586.15 million.
$DASH (+3,26%)
DoorDash:
Missed analyst estimates of -$0.55 in the third quarter with earnings per share of -$0.77. Revenue of $1.7 billion exceeded expectations of $1.62 billion.
$GPRO (+0%)
GoPro:
Beat analyst estimates of $0.17 in the third quarter with earnings per share of $0.19. Revenue of $305 million exceeded expectations of $298.85 million.
$MSI (+0,13%)
Motorola Solutions:
Beats third-quarter analyst estimates of $2.88 with earnings per share of $3.00. Revenue of $2.37 billion beats expectations of $2.31 billion.
$HOT (+1,53%)
Hochtief:
Reached sales of 7.18 billion euros in the third quarter, up from 5.32 billion a year earlier, and earned 115 million euros on the bottom line, up from 99.8 million a year earlier. Order intake on a comparable basis was 6.5 billion (prior year 7.5 billion).
$K (-0,26%)
Kellogg Co:
Surpassed analysts' estimates of $0.97 in the third quarter with earnings per share of $1.01. Sales of $3.95 billion exceeded expectations of $3.77 billion.
$RCL (+1,29%)
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd:
Beat analyst estimates of $0.19 in the third quarter with earnings per share of $0.26. Revenue of $3 billion exceeded expectations of $2.99 billion.
$UAA (+2,01%)
Under Armour Inc:
Second-quarter earnings per share of $0.20 beat analyst estimates of $0.10. Revenue of $1.57 billion exceeded expectations of $1.42 billion.
$W (+6,64%)
Wayfair Inc:
Missed analyst estimates of -$2.05 in the third quarter with earnings per share of -$2.11. Revenue of $2.8 billion below expectations of $2.82 billion.
$PTON (+6%)
Peloton Interactive Inc:
Missed analyst estimates of -$0.64 with first-quarter earnings per share of -$1.20. Revenue of $616.5 million below expectations of $637.07 million.
$DDOG (+1,67%)
Datadog Inc:
Third-quarter earnings per share of $0.23 beat analyst estimates of $0.16. Revenue of $437 million exceeded expectations of $415.07 million.
$MRNA (-3,36%)
Moderna Inc:
Missed analyst estimates of $4.81 in the third quarter with earnings per share of $2.53. Revenue of $3.36 billion below expectations of $4.63 billion.
$CROX (-1,73%)
Crocs Inc:
Missed analyst estimates of $2.62 in the third quarter with earnings per share of $2.50. Revenue of $985.1 million exceeded expectations of $942.52 million.
$IRM (-2,32%)
Iron Mountain Inc:
Third-quarter earnings per share of $0.48 beat analyst estimates of $0.44. Sales of $1.29 billion below expectations of $1.31 billion.
$SBS (-3,39%)
STRATEC:
Posts Q1-3 sales of €207.7 million (preliminary: €207.7 million), adjusted EBIT margin of 18.3% (preliminary: 18.3%), and net income (adjusted) of €29.5 million (PY: €40.6 million). Outlook confirmed.
$BOSS (+3,75%)
HUGO BOSS:
Achieves Q3 sales of €933 million (PY: €755, analyst forecast: €903.4 million), EBIT of €92 million (PY: €85 million, forecast: €88.1 million) and net income of €58 million (PY: €53 million, forecast: €56.6 million). In the outlook for 2022, the company now expects sales of €3.5 to €3.6 billion (previous: €3.3 to €3.5 billion) and EBIT of €310 to €330 million (previous: €285 to €310 million).
$SGL (+3,99%)
SGL CARBON:
Achieves Q1-3 sales of €853.9 million (previous year: €743.5 million), Ebitda (adjusted) of €136.1 million (previous year: €108.5 million) and net income after minorities of €70.6 million (previous year: €42.6 million). Forecast confirmed.
$PFV (+0,33%)
Pfeiffer Vacuum:
Achieves Q1-3 order intake of €866.5 million (preliminary: €866.5 million), sales of €668.7 million (preliminary: €668.7 million), EBIT of €94 million (preliminary: €94 million) and net income of €66.6 million (PY: €52.1 million). October 17 forecast for revenue and Ebit margin confirmed.
$HNR1 (+0,16%)
Hannover Re:
Achieves 3. Gross premiums written of €8.91 billion (PY: €7.15 billion, analyst forecast: €8.02 billion), combined ratio of 99.6% (PY: 101.5%, forecast: 99.6%), investment result of €400.3 million (PY: €491.1 million), an Ebit of €408.9 million (PY: €324.5 million, forecast: €399 million) and a net profit of €221.9 million (PY: €185.4 million, forecast: €311 million). In the outlook for 2022, the company sees net income in the lower range of €1.4 billion to €1.5 billion, profit target for 2022 remains achievable.
$UN01
Uniper:
Achieves 1st to 3rd. Quarter net result of -€40 billion (PY: -€4.8 billion), net loss includes €10 billion realized costs for replacement volumes; economic net debt at €10.91 billion (PY: €0.324 billion), net loss includes €31 billion expected losses and provisions; adjusted net loss of -€3.22 billion (preliminary: -€3.2 billion, prior year: +€0.487 billion), adjusted EBIT of -€4.75 billion (preliminary: -€4.8 billion, prior year: +€0.614 billion). Concrete earnings forecast currently impossible for the time being.
$O2D (-0,65%)
Telefonica Germany:
Achieves Q3 sales of €2.085 billion (PY: €1.967 billion, analyst forecast: €2.030 billion), service sales of €1.47 billion (PY: €1.42 billion), adjusted OIBDA of €642 million (PY: €613 million, forecast: €640.5 million). In the outlook for 2022, sales and OIBDA are now expected to be in the "lower mid-single-digit percentage range" compared to the previous year (previously: in the "low mid-single-digit percentage range").
$BMW (+0,81%)
BMW:
Reports Q3 sales of €37.18 billion (PY: €27.47 billion, analysts' forecast: €35.53 billion), EBIT of €3.68 billion (PY: €2.88 billion, forecast: €3.5 billion), EBT of €4.1 billion (PY: €3.42 billion) and net income of €3.18 billion (PY: €2.58 billion). Outlook confirmed.
$ZAL (+1,11%)
Zalando:
Achieves Q3 revenues of €2.34 billion (PY: €2.28 billion), Ebit (adjusted) of €13.5 million (PY: €9.8 million) and net result of -€35.4 million (PY: -€8.4 million); number of active customers grows by 8% and exceeds 50 million for the first time. Outlook confirmed.
$COP (+2,12%)
CompuGroup:
Posts Q1-3 revenue of €802 million (preliminary: €802 million), Ebitda of €166 million (preliminary: €166 million) and net income of €59.8 million (PY: 56.6 million). Outlook confirmed.
$RAA (+1,68%)
RATIONAL:
Achieves Q3 sales of €274.2 million (PY: €207 million, analyst forecast: €270 million), Ebit of €70.3 million (PY: €49.7 million, forecast: €64.4 million), Ebit margin of 25.6% (PY: 24.0%) and net income of €53.8 million (PY: €37.8 million). Forecast confirmed.
$KCO (+2,98%)
Klöckner & Co:
Achieves 3rd quarter sales of €2.37 billion (PY: €2.0 billion), Ebitda (adjusted) of €16 million (PY: €277 million) and net result of -€22 million (PY: +€185 million). Outlook confirmed.
#quartalszahlen
#boerse
#börse
#aktien
#paypal
#starbucks
#sandp500
#communityfeedback
#community
I just watched another documentary about cruise ships. These gigantic ships are already extremely impressive and they are getting bigger and bigger, which you can see on the new Wonder of the seas. Cruises are also becoming more and more popular as a vacation destination, since you can get all-inclusive at a reasonable price and go ashore somewhere else every day.
The cruise industry has already suffered mega hard during the pandemic, which you can also see in the chart of RC. However, I am convinced that the industry will recover. RC has cancelled the dividend in 2021, which is more than understandable because of the situation already mentioned above. Does anyone of you perhaps also know whether RC distribute natural dividends such as boron credits or so?
Conclusion:
I have never taken a cruise in my entire life, but would like to experience the experience. I used to take the Moby line car ferry from Genoa to Sardinia with my parents, so that's probably where it came from. The only thing that makes me feel bad are the effects on the environment. There must change in the industry still so some when it comes to alternative drive. There are already hydrogen or liquid gas drives. What do you think of the industry?
