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#gold #silver

Two months ago, I was delighted to receive my first Onebagger - gold.

Today I can be happy again - the 10k have been cracked 🥳

I bought my last gold several years ago. Since then, it's been gaining value by stubbornly "lying around". What more could you want 😁

Tomorrow there will be a final update on the Tenbagger community project. And then we'll see you again in the new year.

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Almost exactly a month ago, I posted here for the first time about Euro Sun Mining ($ESM (-5,12%) ) for the first time. I see it as a promising bet in the mining sector... well many see the company as a scam and were accordingly critical, but so be it. Reason enough to take another look at ESM and its performance! 😉

🔎 A short recap...

Euro Sun Mining is a Canadian listed mining development company focused on the development of the Rovina Valley project in Romania. The focus here is on the mining of copper and gold.

The company has actually been trying to get this project up and running for years... so far unsuccessfully. This was partly due to local opposition over concerns about environmental impact and the resulting revocation of an environmental permit that had already been granted.

... and where are we now?

• Completion of the EIA (environmental assessment) completed, submission in January
• Objections from various NGOs to the strategic classification of the project under the CRMA by the EU completely rejected as unfounded
• Conclusion of a Binding Off-Take Agreement in the amount of USD 200 million with Trafigura

For us (or anyone invested in ESM), each of these steps means further de-risking. Of course, there is still a long way to go before we have a mine, but ESM has never been in a better position than it is today to finally realize this project. In addition to the political back-up, the financing has now also been largely secured. Now it is a matter of obtaining the missing permits.

Where does the share stand? 📈

Since I joined the company just over a month ago, the share has moved upwards bit by bit. In the meantime, it has gained 30%. I believe that the share still has considerable upside potential with further good news, but as is the case in the mining sector... nothing is guaranteed! 😉

But I'm very excited to see how things will continue here next year! Are any of you still involved $DE000EWG0LD1 (-8,42%) ?

Dear fellow investors,

In the medium term, I would like to take a position in gold $DE000EWG0LD1 (-8,42%) into my portfolio, but I am still put off by the current high prices. With Bitcoin $BTC (+1%) I have recently handled it as follows in order to expand my position ... I bought a small position (€500) in increments of 5000 from €80000.

How would you proceed with gold? What increments would seem attractive here? I am curious and thank you very much.

Best regards

Your _EvD_

Euro Sun Mining has already had an eventful (in part unsuccessful) history. But I believe that the chances of a happy ending and a potential tenbagger have never been as good as they are today... 📈

Who or what is Euro Sun Mining?

Euro Sun Mining is a Canadian listed mining development company focused on the development of the Rovina Valley project in Romania. The focus here is on the mining of copper and gold.

The company has actually been trying to get this project up and running for years... so far unsuccessfully. This was partly due to local opposition over concerns about environmental impact and the resulting revocation of an environmental permit that had already been granted.

...and what has changed? 🤔

You have to thank the EU here. Caused by the war in Ukraine and the dependence on China, the decision was made to promote the extraction of strategically important raw materials. To this end, the Critical Raw Materials Act ("CRMA") was brought into being.

Essentially, it is intended to help optimize the approval process for these strategic projects and subsequently speed up the process. It should only take 12 to a maximum of 24 months from application to full approval.

... and of course the Rovina Valley project was classified by Euro Sun Mining as a strategically important project, otherwise this post would have been superfluous! 😉

The latest news about Euro Sun Mining 🔎

There were three important news items last Friday...

👉🏻 The CRMA has been incorporated into Romanian national law:

With the transposition into national law, Euro Sun Mining can now officially apply under the terms of the CRMA and benefit from the shortened authorization procedures, which should happen in the coming days...

👉🏻 The Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) has been completed:

After failing two years ago, the (new) management has made improvements. In close consultation with the Romanian authorities, the shortcomings have been addressed and (hopefully) rectified. Once the report has been completed, the above-mentioned application can be submitted.

👉🏻 Appointment of Cantor Fitzgerald as financial advisor:

The focus here is on "valuating potential strategic transactions involving the Company or its assets, including mergers, acquisitions, or sales"... is a merger / sale possibly being prepared here?

My final assessment 📊

To cut a long story short, Euro Sun Mining is a bet I'm making. I am currently already invested with an initial 15 thousand euros and am considering topping up again tomorrow.

The arguments in favor of Euro Sun Mining are

• Confirmed NPV according to definitive feasibility study ("DFS") at a gold price of $3,300 dollars of 1.8 bn dollars.
• Closed off-take agreement (financing commitment) of 600 million to realize the project.
• 
  Tailwind through CRMA
• High insider purchases and partnerships (e.g. Cantor Fitzgerald) indicate optimism among insiders

Speaking against Euro Sun Mining:

• High risk with regard to granting of permits. Even if the CRMA and general geopolitical developments promise a tailwind... it is not a guarantee. And everything stands and falls with the approval
• Implementation risk. Even if all permits have been granted, the mine must first be built. Although the financing is in place, the construction of a mine is complex and often involves cost overruns and delays.

👉🏻 Overall, however, the risk/reward ratio outweighs the reward for me. The current market capitalization is currently 90 million. In the best-case scenario, the share could increase twentyfold based on the (conservative NPV).

It remains a high-risk/high-return play. Over the next few weeks, further news releases should provide excitement. The biggest uncertainty factor at the moment remains the environmental permit. If this is granted, it will mean massive derisking, but then the share will no longer be available at 15 cents... 😉

$ESM (-5,12%)
$DE000EWG0LD1 (-8,42%)

Best wishes and good business!

For those who have no plans today,

Aswath Damodaran (if you don't know him, please google him) has made a short but very precise analysis of gold as an investment.

Highly recommended!

https://youtu.be/FdlCocXHnMs?si=TyIjsezV_5QwLTXb

For those who prefer to read it:

https://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2025/11/a-golden-year-2025-golds-price-surge.html?m=1

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After two weeks, I have decided to sell the inliner warrant with a decent plus... (If the shutdown ends, this could cause a short-term setback, which I do not want to participate in)

This is where the advantage of inline warrants becomes particularly clear, while gold has only risen by just under 5% in this time, I have made a return of around 75%, for which I would need very high leverage if I wanted to do this with KO longs...

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It's no secret that I'm a fan of gold and gold mines. That's why I want to take this opportunity to introduce you to my second largest position after K92 Mining. $EQX (-10,37%) after K92 Mining.

I myself have been in it for several years... An eventful journey. It all started with Fiore Gold, which was then taken over by Calibre Mining. Calibre itself then took over Marathon and now - through a merger with Equinox - we are called Equinox Gold. But let's move on to the company:

👉🏻 General introduction:

Equinox Gold is a Canadian gold producer with projects in Canada, the USA and Latin America. In recent years, the company has evolved from a pure developer to a serious producer - with a clear goal:

Equinox is to develop into a mid-tier mid-tier 1 producer with over 1 million ounces of annual production in the coming years.

With the Greenstone mine in Ontario (Canada) and the new Valentine mine in Newfoundland, two major projects are in the starting blocks - and this is now reflected for the first time in last week's Q3 figures!

👉🏻 Strong operational momentum: 📈

Equinox reported record figures in the recently published Q3 2025:

• 236,000 ounces of gold production - the best quarter in the company's history!
• Revenue of over USD 540 million, with a gross margin of over 35
• Cash costs (TCC): around USD 1,450/ounce, AISC at around USD 1,850 - falling trend
• Annual guidance 2025: 785,000 - 915,000 ounces of gold production

After some stumbling blocks in the past quarters with regard to the ramp-up of Greenstone and the completion of Valentine, the following is now particularly important: the Greenstone mine has started commercial production and is running better than planned and the Valentine mine in Canada is now also in the ramp-up phase - meaning: further increasing production with falling unit costs from 2026.

In addition to the ramp-up of Valentine and Greenstone, the top priority is debt reduction. For this reason, the rather unimportant Nevada assets (formerly Fiore Gold) have now also been sold off. At current gold prices, Equinox is generating a cash flow of around 200 million dollars per quarter and can therefore theoretically be completely debt-free in 6-8 quarters! In other words, the first dividend or a share buyback could be announced from the middle/end of next year!

👉🏻 Valuation & my conclusion:

Currently, the market capitalization is around USD 5 bn, the forward P/E ratio is 10-12, depending on the estimate - more than attractive for a producer of this size with this growth potential.

For me, there are several catalysts for significantly higher prices in the future:

✅ Full production run Greenstone & Valentine from 2026

✅ Falling costs → rising margins

✅ Potentially still high gold price, possibly even rising further

✅ Possible dividend or share buybacks from 2026

✅ Further exploration news flow from Canada & Brazil and possibly Mexico (Los Filos Mine)

As far as Equinox Gold's share price is concerned, I continue to see significant potential. Over the next 2-3 years, I can well imagine another +200%, especially if gold prices remain at +4,000 dollars. On the other hand, should Equinox even find a solution for Los Filos (where it is at cross purposes with one of 3 villages, which is why activities there have been paused), this would significantly increase the potential once again.

In my opinion, K92 Mining and Equinox Gold are a must for anyone who invests in mines. In any case, I remain invested. The journey is not over yet 😉

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Together with @Klein-Anleger1 I can also be happy about my first doubler today 😊

Starting in 2008 with the first 1/10 ounce from Dad (for €69, I remember exactly), I bought small tranches of gold at regular and irregular intervals until about 3 years ago. Sometimes from birthday money, sometimes from my training salary. Sometimes a 5g bar, sometimes 1/4 ounce. In an emergency, I had to sell a not inconsiderable amount - which fortunately is not a problem with #gold fortunately not a problem.

The rest has been lying dormant ever since - and is now worth twice its purchase price.

Am I annoyed about having sold part of it? No, I'm much happier that I didn't have to sell everything despite the situation at the time.

Let's see when I can look forward to another doubling of my gold 🌚

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Sometimes it's worth taking a fresh look at the familiar - I'd like to share some new insights here and look forward to hearing your opinions on the subject:

Gold has been the subject of much discussion on the financial markets recently - and rightly so. In the current year 2025, the precious metal is one of the top performers: The spot price has risen by around 38-40% in USD terms since the start of the year, while global share indices have risen significantly less in the same period. According to the World Gold Council, gold was already up around +26% YTD by the middle of the year - a figure that had risen further to over +40% by September. By comparison, global equity ETFs were up ~+17% YTD (in USD) at mid-year. Gold marked new all-time highs around $3,700/oz.

What is driving this gold boom?

Several macroeconomic factors are at play. Firstly, a weaker US dollar in 2025 has boosted the price of gold, as gold is quoted in dollars. Secondly, there is still uncertainty in the geopolitical environment - from the ongoing war in Ukraine to trade conflicts - which is driving investors into safe havens. Added to this are concerns about inflation and recession, which are also increasing the attractiveness of gold as a store of value.

The demand from institutional investors is particularly noteworthy: central banks around the world are increasing their gold reserves more than they have for a long time. Since 2022, central banks have been buying over 1,000 tons of gold every year - around twice as much as the average in previous years. These record-high central bank purchases and continued inflows into gold ETFs are seen as the main drivers of the rally. At the same time, expectations of falling US interest rates (after the high interest rates of previous years) have reduced the opportunity cost of gold and sparked additional demand.

Gold in the portfolio: Diversification vs. "insurance"

Gold is a polarizing topic in many investor portfolios - often either not present at all or very highly weighted. Gold is traditionally seen as a "safe haven" and inflation protection. In fact, history shows that gold tends to rise, especially in times of crisis, when stock markets are weak. Gold recorded positive returns in 15 of the 20 worst quarters of the S&P 500 and outperformed equities in almost all other cases. This defensive characteristic makes it a stabilizer in many portfolios.

Even more important, however, is the diversification effect: gold has a relatively low or even negative correlation to traditional investments such as equities and bonds. In normal market phases, gold behaves independently and often in the opposite direction to share prices. This can help to reduce the fluctuation range of the overall portfolio - gold therefore does not "run" in step with the stock market indices.

Studies show that even a small addition of gold can measurably reduce portfolio risks: In one analysis, the Sharpe ratio (risk-return ratio) of an insurer's portfolio rose by around +12% when 2.5% gold was added. In other words, gold can improve the risk/return profile due to its low correlation. It is therefore no wonder that some asset managers recommend a gold allocation of ~10% in a balanced portfolio. Asset manager Sprott, for example, is of the opinion that ~10% physical gold (possibly supplemented by up to 5% in mining stocks) is a sensible component for risk diversification.

At the same time, gold should not be blindly idealized: Gold is not a perfect insurance policy for all eventualities. Like all investments, it is subject to fluctuations in value - sometimes considerable ones. For example, the price of gold lost around 29% of its value in 2013-2014 when the US Federal Reserve scaled back its ultra-loose monetary policy. Such drawdowns show that gold investors have to ride out lean periods.

In addition, gold does not generate any current income (no interest or dividends). In calm market phases, opportunity costs can therefore arise if, for example, bonds yield interest and gold is "only" unchanged. Some professionals - such as life insurers - argue that gold does not fit into the concept because no cash flow is generated.

Ultimately, it all comes down to perspective: Gold is less suitable for generating regular income, but more as a strategic asset component for extreme cases ("tail hedge") and for admixing with its own dynamic profile.

Personally, I take a middle course with gold.

Gold ETCs make up around 5-10% of my portfolio - not because I consider it to be the ultimate crash insurance, but as a deliberate counterbalance to equities and crypto. My aim is to have a share that develops independently of my equity investments and tends to be more stable or even positive in phases when equities and cryptocurrencies weaken. This strategy reflects what gold means for many investors: a diversifier and "crisis cushion", but not a sure-fire success.

It is interesting to note that gold and equities do not always move in opposite directions. The most recent example: In the first half of the 2020s, both gold and many stock markets recorded strong gains at the same time. Investors should therefore be aware that the correlation between gold and other assets can vary.

In phases of global booms (with simultaneously rising corporate profits and inflation), gold can certainly rise with equities. Conversely, in acute moments of panic, gold can also be sold off in the short term before it reasserts itself as a safe haven (as seen in March 2020, for example).

However, the overall picture remains: over longer periods, gold has its own price determination, driven by macro factors (inflation, real interest rates, USD exchange rate, geopolitical risks) and supply/demand (jewelry industry, investor demand, mining production). These factors are fundamentally different from equities and ensure that gold usually lives up to its reputation as a portfolio stabilizer.

Short-term fluctuation vs. long term: performance over time

What about long-term performance? Opinions are often divided here. In the long term - over many decades - gold has offered real value preservation plus a moderate increase in value, while equities (including dividends) have grown much more strongly.

An often-cited example: If one had invested $100 each in gold and the S&P 500 stock index since 1971 (the end of Bretton Woods and the freeing of the gold price), the gold investment would be around $7,000 today, but the stock investment would be over $26,000 (with dividend reinvestment). So over ~50 years, the stock market has delivered the higher growth.

But - and this is important - the answer depends heavily on the period under consideration. Anyone who started with gold and equities in 2000 has an advantage with gold today: $100 would have become ~$900 with gold, while $100 in the S&P 500 (well doubled despite the dotcom and financial crisis) grew to around $600.

The period 2000-2024 was characterized by two severe bear markets in equities and at the same time a major upswing in the price of gold. There were similar "catch-up runs" for gold in the 1970s: in the stagflation of that era, gold shot up massively while equities ran sideways.

What can we learn from this?

Timing and time horizon are crucial. Gold moves in long cycles. Phases of rapid rises (as recently since 2019) can follow longer lulls (think of the 1980s/90s, when gold barely moved for two decades).

• Over 10-20 years, gold can certainly keep pace with or outperform equities, especially if the starting period came from a low phase in the gold price.
• Since the turn of the millennium (1999-2024), for example, gold has returned an average of around +9.2% per year, outperforming global equities.
• Over 30+ years, on the other hand, broad equity indices are generally ahead, especially when dividends are taken into account.

Nevertheless, gold has also returned in real terms - since 1971 on average around +8 % p.a. in USD, which is well above inflation. This means that the often-heard criticism that gold "only preserves purchasing power but has no return" is not entirely fair - the real value of gold has also grown significantly over the decades.

It just depends on the chosen starting and end point. In terms of diversification, this means that gold can generate returns in certain phases and compensate for any losses in other asset classes, but you should not expect it to outperform equities on an ongoing basis.

The bottom line is that gold remains a special building block in the investment universe:

It is a commodity and currency substitute with its own supply/demand dynamics, not a productive investment in the traditional sense, but historically a reliable store of value over generations.

Particularly in an environment in which equities and bonds are again correlating positively at times (e.g. with simultaneous losses in 2022), gold is gaining in importance as an independent diversifier. Whether you hold 0%, 5% or 20% gold depends on your individual convictions, goals and risk preferences.

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