I had actually planned to write a very detailed article, but at the moment I'm not enjoying the platform very much. Nevertheless, there is a value that I have mentioned before and that I would now like to shed some light on. I believe that many people here in the forum are waiting for just such opportunities.
In short, if you are not prepared to hold a share for at least five, but ideally ten years or longer, then this stock is not for you.
To take you into the vision: Since this stock only really makes sense over a long and steady period of time, you need to imagine you're Warren Buffett. We are looking for companies that can "compound" over a long period of time, i.e. use the compound interest effect and only develop their full potential towards the end of the term.
So welcome to HHH $HHH (+0,13%) the modern Berkshire $BER ? The company is a real estate developer, builder and manager that is currently being transformed into a multi-portfolio group.
The business model is basically quite simple: you acquire land (rarely nowadays, as most of it was acquired in the past), plan complete communities on it and then build them. These include offices, hotels and supermarkets, but also apartment buildings and single-family homes.
This process is actually very successful and is summarized here:
Figures such as return on sales and the like only play a subordinate role at the moment. If you take a closer look at the investment, you quickly realize that the current profits are rather irrelevant and volatile. This is completely normal for a real estate developer, but that is only the surface.
Beneath the façade lies a far more interesting business model, which is largely driven by Bill Ackman and ultimately prompted me to invest. It's about the reallocation of profits and strategic restructuring.
As a disclaimer, Bill Ackman is the majority shareholder of HHH and after a long wait he wants to turn it into a modern version of Berkshire Hathaway.
The business model has one wonderful feature, which is also its biggest disadvantage: it has to be planned for decades to come. Many investors simply do not have the patience for this. One example illustrates this: some of the existing land reserves are to be built on until 2080.
On the one hand, the business is easy to understand, but on the other hand, there has so far been a lack of a "profit generator" that leaves cash for the main business but generates high returns in the meantime. This is where the conversion comes in. In the long term, the properties are extremely cash flow-generating. You invest capital initially and then benefit from the returns for a very long time. The more space is developed, the stronger the cash flow grows and the more stock is created, the faster the assets cover the liabilities.
liabilities. The further HHH progresses in its cycle, the more cash is generated. But what happens to the money? In rare cases, new land is bought, but this has hardly happened for years, as land is expensive and the company already owns enough. Until now, the money has often been invested in bonds, but these have hardly yielded any return, which has tended to deter the stock market.
Now comes Ackman's idea: let's use the surplus cash to achieve a higher return through insurance and equity investments. I am not an unconditional fan of Buffett or Ackman, but I firmly believe in this model.
In short: the capital flows into the properties and the resulting income is reinvested in insurance transactions or shares. This requires the necessary history that Bill Ackman brings to the table
and, above all, patience. Whether this model really pays off will only become clear in ten years' time. If you can understand the investment, you should get in with a small sum of money and let it sit, evaluate the development in the meantime, but only check the actual performance in a decade's time. Margins and the operating model will only increase slowly.
There would be an incredible amount more to say here, but I think that's enough for now. If you have any questions, please write a comment and we can discuss them. If you want to read more, check out Ackman's presentation or the link. https://docs.google.com/document/d/1DNSJcnRHzsTvv8OlCR5lo3tSRUKlgaupaocOGKaBVHE/edit?usp=drivesdk
