actually found the earnings quite solid... nice stock for the dividend growth portfolio will be further expanded
UnitedHealth
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132Purchase:
$UNH (+0,31%) Purchase 2 shares at 503,- Euro 😎
UnitedHealth Q4 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Adj EPS: $6.81 (Est. $6.73) 🟢
🔹 Revenue: $100.1B (Est. $101.74B) 🔴
🔹 Medical Loss Ratio (MLR): 85.94% (Est. 85.94%) 🟡
🔹 OCR: 13.2% (Improved from 14.7% YoY)
Guidance for 2025:
🔹 Adj EPS: $29.50-$30.00 (Est. $29.84) 🟡
🔹 Revenue: $450B-$455B (Est. $447.66B) 🟢
🔹 Operating Cash Flow: $32B-$33B (Est. $34.04B) 🔴
🔹 Medical Loss Ratio (MLR): 85.69% (Est. 85.69%) 🟡
Cash Flow:
🔹 Full-Year Operating Cash Flow: $24.2B; 1.6x Net Income
Q4 Segment Highlights:
UnitedHealthcare:
🔹 Revenue: $298.2B (Est. $232.95B) 🟢; UP +6% YoY
🔹 Operating Earnings: $15.6B
🔹 Domestic Consumers Served: +2.4M YoY
🔹 Seniors and Complex Needs Offerings: Serving 9.4M; +2.1M YoY
🔹 State-Based Community Offerings: Moderated to 7.4M, reflecting Medicaid redeterminations
Optum:
🔹 Revenue: $253B (Est. $253.0B); UP +12% YoY
🔹 Operating Earnings: $16.7B (Adj: $18.2B) 😕
🔹 Optum Health Revenue: $105.4B; Growth driven by value-based care and expanded services
🔹 Optum Rx Revenue: +15% YoY, adjusted scripts grew to 1.62B
🔹 Optum Insight Revenue: $18.8B (Est. $18.75B) 😑; DOWN -1% YoY due to cyberattack impact of $867M
Operational Metrics:
🔹 Days Claims Payable: 47.0 (vs. 47.9 YoY)
🔹 Return on Equity (Q4): 23.7%
CEO Commentary:
🔸 "UnitedHealth continues to focus on high-quality, affordable health care while simplifying experiences for patients and providers. We’re well-positioned for growth in 2025." – Andrew Witty
Additional Insights:
🔸 UnitedHealth returned over $16B to shareholders through dividends and buybacks in 2024.
🔸 Optum expects to add 650K value-based care patients in 2025.
🔸 Strategic partnerships and state customer expansions provide momentum for 2025 growth.
A Key Profit Driver
$UNH (+0,31%) boasts a well-diversified business model underpinned by its solid profitability across insurance, PBM, and healthcare analytics. Hence, investors shouldn't understate the solid profitability underpinned by its Optum business (which includes UNH's PBM segment).
Optum contributed $4.5B to UNH's 3Q FY2024 earnings, and it represents an estimated adjusted operating margin of almost 18%.
Quo vadis healthcare sector?
My development in this area has been very mixed. After I sold in December $WBA (-1,53%) after a risky purchase - to lower the buy in - with +/- 0, my investment in $AFX (+0,29%) was abruptly terminated, leaving me with a hefty loss, and shortly afterwards I unfortunately also lost my shares in $UNH (+0,31%) but still with a profit of 8%. Today I decided to recoup my losses and sold my $BMY (-0,32%) sold. It was a nice trade, plus the €245 dividend plus the payment on February 3rd. The uncertainty in the sector has become too great for me and I want to watch from the sidelines what the new US government will do. Marty Makary as the planned head of the FDA will certainly not strike as brutally as some fear, but there could be changes and difficulties in the area of approval procedures. This would also affect Bristol, which should and must bring a few good products from its pipeline onto the market in the next few years. The acquisition of Karuma together with the approval of KarXT has provided a brief boost, but is not enough to compensate for the expiry of patent protection for Revlimid, Opdivo and especially Eliquis in the next few years. They account for over USD 12 billion of sales and patent protection expires in the EU in 2026 and in the US in 2028. This does not mean that Eliquis will no longer be sold, but a not insignificant proportion is likely to be lost to generics. In addition, CMS has already negotiated price reductions of 56% for 2026. Coupled with the political uncertainties, I have taken the money with me for the time being and will wait and see. I still have to deal with $NOVO B (+1,33%) ...., which is currently the biggest loss-maker in my portfolio with a drop of almost 17%.
Please let me know your assessment of the market in this sector.
Watchlist for the 2KW 2025
A quick overview of the stocks I am trying to get into the portfolio for the coming week. The limit orders can be adjusted to the market. However, I will start with this on Monday morning
Fastenal - limit EUR 69.50 $FAST (+0,64%)
Coca Cola limit 58.50 EUR $KO (+0,34%)
Watsco limit 451,50 EUR $WSO (+0,23%)
Waste Management Limit 195.00 EUR $WM (+0,16%)
UnitedHealth Limit 490 EUR $UNH (+0,31%)
Philip Morris limit EUR 117 $PM (+0,2%)
Lockheed Martin Limit 460.00 EUR $LMT (+0,47%)
Iron Mountain Limit 100 EUR $IRM (+0,54%)
Have a nice rest of Sunday .
Review of the year 2024
The year 2024 is over in stock market terms and I would also like to review the year.
I started with a portfolio value of just over €53,000.
I knew that a reallocation of around €20,000 was still to come and had therefore set my sights on the target of €100,000.
This was very ambitious, as I naturally didn't know what the year would bring. After all, there were already enough economic and political uncertainties at the start of 2024.
As I only really started investing in 2021 and 2022 was therefore my first full year on the stock market, I made a lot of mistakes at the beginning, had fluctuations in my strategy (once one was in place) and of course also made a few losses.
That's why it was important for me to stay true to my strategy in 2024 and not throw everything overboard again. Because, as I always say, going back and forth empties your pockets.
Some of you may also remember my early days, when I had a lot of savings plans in place, but they weren't particularly high and were constantly being changed. At the beginning of 2024, my portfolio contained a total of 47 individual share positions and 3 ETFs.
My goals for 2024 were therefore
- Stay true to the strategy
- No new stocks in the portfolio, rather clear out
- 100,000€ portfolio value
- 2000€ net dividend
- Investment of €17,000 (without reallocation)
2024 went as follows for me:
January: +4.0%
February: +1.3%
March: +3.0%
April: -0.4%
May: +0.5%
June: +1.7%
July: +1.7%
August: +0.9%
September: +1.0%
October: -0.4%
November: +3.4%
December: -1.7%
TTWROR 2024: +15.8%
Dividend (already in the performance): € 1956.56
Invested: €24,900
Reallocation: €21,700
Thanks to a special payment from my old employer, to which I was still entitled, I was surprisingly able to invest around €5,000 more than I had originally thought.
Did I achieve my goals?
Not all of them.
With the dividends, I'm ~€43 below my target. That's a shame, but it motivates me to step on the gas even more and crack the €2400 net dividend in 2025. That would be €200 net per month, which corresponds to an increase of 22.66%. Again, very ambitious, but you should set yourself ambitious goals.
However, I was already able to break the €100,000 barrier in September. This was of course due to the strong market. I ended the year with just over €111,500. I have remained true to my strategy, but a few new stocks have slipped into the portfolio (and a few out).
The cheering contribution to the €100,000 was here:
https://app.getquin.com/de/activity/XGtdQzCdYF
New in the depot:
$NESN (-0,29%) Nestle
$CTAS (+0,09%) Cintas (savings plan)
$RACE (-0,2%) Ferrari
$D05 (-0,95%) DBS
$UNH (+0,31%) United Health
$V (+0,21%) visas
$CSNDX (+0,6%) Nasdaq 100 (savings plan)
$XEON (-0,01%) As an overnight money substitute for fixed planned money for loan repayment in 6 years or special repayment if the interest rate on the balance falls below the loan interest rate of 0.75%. Is topped up with special payments from the employer during this period.
Left my securities account:
$AAL (-0,12%) Anglo American PLC (+37%)
$IBM (+0,58%) (+26%)
$BAC (+0,18%) Bank of America (+45%)
$UKW (+0,69%) Greencoat UK Wind (0 to 0 due to dividends)
$SBUX (+0,32%) Starbucks (+10%)
$BIGG (+2,96%) Bigg Digital Group (-95%)
Unfortunately, I sold IBM and Bank of America too early, but I am still satisfied.
What else has happened?
- I bought Bitcoin from TR to estimate the costs. Conclusion: savings plan is always around 3-4% higher. Not worth it, if at all then individual purchases
- Weingut Dürnberg: First dividend received and prospects look reasonable. Depending on how the grape harvest turns out next year, a dividend will be paid again and investments can still be made.
- The conservatory and paving the courtyard are done. The house construction is more or less finished, everything else will take time and are small things, but now I have to start saving again as I only have a small nest egg and my deposit. All other funds have been used up as the costs were twice as high as originally planned.
- Podcast with @Koenigmidas is running rather slowly this year due to personal time constraints. You can find the latest episode here: Link zur Folge (also available on Amazon)
Outlook for 2025
So what are my plans for 2025 in terms of finances?
- Investment of €15,000
- Net dividend of €2,400
- One slightly greater focus on high dividend stocks (e.g. to increase $HTGC (+0,76%) to increase the cash flow a little faster)
What are your targets for 2025? Did you reach your 2024 targets and to what extent did you change your targets after reaching (or not reaching) your 2024 targets?
Feel free to let me know in the comments, as I always find it very exciting to see how ambitiously others set/change their goals.
I wish you a good start to 2025 and every success with all your plans and goals.
As with everything, of course, if you're not interested, feel free to keep scrolling and/or use the block function. 😊
The shares of $CVS (+0,2%) , $UNH (+0,31%) and other US companies in the healthcare sector drifted further downwards today.
The reason for this is the increasing speculation surrounding the plans of the orange-colored future head of state.
He plans to eliminate "the middleman". The middleman are dealers who help determine the final prices of drugs, but do not necessarily offer an add-on.
If the new administration really pushes this through, it will probably only be the beginning of a correction in the U.S. healthcare system.
What is your opinion on this?
In addition to the general negative sentiment against United Health in particular, this is good news for the largest health insurer - after all, it is mainly the competition that is being cut off here. CVS Health is suffering the most here, which is also clearly reflected in the share price.
In the medium term, however, sentiment could deteriorate significantly, which is why I will only start buying shares again at $450. We have already seen this year that people are stupid and would in principle be prepared to sell me this quality share at very attractive conditions.
$UNH (+0,31%) Anyone have an opinion on why it's falling like this now? Murderer was caught after all?
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