$MSFT (-0,23%)

With a little delay, here is my analysis from my blog. - I would also like to share it with you.

Microsoft - Long-term quality or overrated hype?

Microsoft is the third-largest position in my portfolio after my ETFs - and with good reason. But will it still be in the future? I have taken a close look at the figures, the market environment, the risks and the potential. And at the end I give you my honest assessment: hold, buy more or sell?

The most important facts in brief:

• Current share price (July 2025): approx. $497
• Valuation: Historically expensive (PER ~38, P/E >13)
• Growth drivers: Cloud, AI (OpenAI), Office 365 subscription model
• Risks: High expectations, geopolitical tensions, regulatory intervention
• Conclusion: Quality share with a price tag - hold, no immediate buy, but savings plan remains exciting

1. fundamentals and valuation - quality has its price

Microsoft is one of the most profitable companies in the world. In the last financial year, sales amounted to $245 billion, the operating margin was 44%, and the bottom line was a profit of over $72 billion. Free cash flow was just under $60 billion.

But: The market has long since recognized this quality. The P/E ratio is ~38, the P/E ratio is over 13. Historically, the P/E ratio was once 20. This means that investors are now paying significantly more for every dollar of profit. The market has a lot of confidence in Microsoft.

And that is precisely the problem: anyone buying now needs confidence that growth will continue. A lot is already priced in.

2 Where does the money come from? - Microsoft's engine room

Microsoft is no longer a Windows company. The traditional business with Office licenses and Windows OEMs is declining. Instead, revenue now comes from three pillars:

• Intelligent Cloud (42% revenue): Azure, servers, databases
• Productivity & Business (33%): Office 365, LinkedIn, Dynamics
• Personal Computing (25%): Xbox, Bing, Surface, Windows

Azure is growing particularly strongly - +33% in the last quarter. Office is also running smoothly thanks to the subscription model. Only the PC business is weakening - logically, the big hardware run is over.

Then there is the new game changer: Artificial intelligence. Microsoft is at the forefront thanks to its billion-euro stake in OpenAI (ChatGPT). Copilot functions in Office, Azure AI services, GitHub Copilot - all of these can generate new revenue streams.

3rd opportunities - what's going really well

• Subscriptions instead of one-off purchases: Over 70% of sales are recurring - predictable and crisis-proof.
• Cloud on course for growth: Azure is clearly the No. 2 behind Amazon AWS - but is growing faster.
• AI leadership: OpenAI partnership and own infrastructure pay off.
• Moat (moat): Office, Windows, Azure - no company just switches it up.
• Endless cash: Microsoft can put billions into innovation every year or buy back shares.

4. risks - where things can get dicey

• Valuation: Microsoft is expensive. Very expensive. If growth falters, share price pressure threatens.
• Regulation: EU, USA - more and more politicians want to rein in Big Tech. Especially for Cloud & Office.
• Competition: Amazon (cloud), Google (workspace, cloud), Apple (chips), Oracle, IBM, Alibaba in China.
• China risk: Azure China only runs via partners, market access could be restricted by politics.
• Macro: Higher interest rates = less investment in IT. Plus currency effects & inflation.

5. DCF & valuation - What is the share really worth?

A conservative DCF model (8% discounting, 2% perpetual growth) arrives at a fair value of $350-380 per share. The market sees it differently - analyst targets are around $500-520.

I say: a lot of fantasy is already priced in. Anyone buying today is speculating that AI, cloud & co. will bring in much more than previously expected. Possible, but not a sure-fire success.

6 Conclusion - What do I do with my Microsoft position?

For me, Microsoft is a clear hold candidate. The company is rock solid, globally positioned, innovative - and I am happy to have it in my portfolio. But:

• Buy more? Not immediately. The valuation is simply too high.
• Sell? No. If you are invested for the long term, stay in.
• Savings plan? Yes, in small tranches. If you buy regularly, you can also take advantage of setbacks.

Personally, I am holding my position, not adding to it at the moment, but keeping the savings plan running. If there are setbacks - due to interest rate fears or regulatory intervention, for example - I am prepared to add more.

Disclaimer: No investment advice. Everyone has to find their own strategy. I share my thoughts and decisions here - no more, but also no less.

I recently joined and have built up a little bit. I hope to build up something in the long term 😅 We'll see over the next few years

$TSLA (-0,23%)
$NVDA (-0,57%)
$NOVO B (-1,06%)
$1211 (+0,46%)
$MSFT (-0,23%)
$NKE (-0,62%)
$PATH (-0,55%)

Half of the year is now over. Incidentally, since July 2, we are closer to the year 2050 than to the year 2000 - just saying.

How could it be otherwise, June was also quite volatile in the middle, but the S&P500 regained everything and closed June with +2.12%. YTD, however, it is still at -7.36%.

In June, I recorded a loss of 0.32%. This corresponds to a value of around €380. It has to be said that I received fewer dividends, as getquin does not deduct withholding tax. But more about the dividends later.

The Dax (-1.11%) was finally worse than my portfolio this month. However, the HSBC MSCI World (+0.68%) beat me this time. Well, the DAX still has a bit of a head start. However, the MSCI is catching up considerably over the year. Nevertheless, I still have a slight lead of around 4%.

My high and low performers in June were (top 3):

Nintendo ($7974 (-0,81%) ) +14,96%

Airbus ($AIR (-0,83%) ) +9,91%

Texas Instruments ($TXN (+0,7%) ) +9,63%

McDonald's ($MCD (+0,08%) ) -9,24%

Procter & Gamble ($PG (+0,01%) ) -9,63%

Nestle ($NESN (-0,41%) ) -10,17%

Texas Instruments $TXN (+0,7%) is among the top 3 stocks again. But still only just over 0% for the year. The customs hullabaloo has simply taken its toll.

Airbus $AIR (-0,83%) is of course benefiting from the Boeing disaster and the defense division is also doing quite well.

Nintendo $7974 (-0,81%) has finally released the Switch 2 and is rising and rising and rising. I would have bought more six months ago... You're always smarter afterwards.

Dividends:

In June, I received €277.64 net from a total of 26 distributions.

Compared to June 2024 (€130.83), this was an increase of 112.21%.

Now comes July. The announcement of the distribution from the Global Dividend Growth ETF is not quite as bad as expected. The worst month of the year has thus changed to October.

Investments:

I still haven't finished building up my nest egg. I still haven't received the bill for the car repairs, so I still have a lot to put aside for that. In the meantime, it could come slowly so that I can finally get it off my plate. Apart from that, my nest egg is growing but it will take some time before it is at a satisfactory level. However, it should reach €10,000 by the end of December, provided nothing serious unforeseen happens.

Purchases and sales:

There were no sales in June.

I bought or increased Hershey (2 shares) and Pepsi (2 shares)

savings plans (125€ in total):

• Cintas $CTAS (+0,22%)
• LVMH $MC (-2,02%)
• Microsoft $MSFT (-0,23%)

Goals 2025:

My goal is still to have €130,000 in my portfolio at the end of the year. This target is to be achieved by reinvesting the dividend, making payments and, of course, increasing the share price. The share price increase is of course impossible to predict in any way, so the motto is: if the share price falls or does not rise enough, more cash is needed.

This comes from selling useless stuff on eBay, additional income from e.g. "neighborhood help" etc.

The worse the share price, the more additional cash has to be raised.

Target achievement at the end of June 2025: 44.44%

Who would have thought that I should actually be at least 50%. I'm not, which means I'm lagging a little behind the optimal path again. But what can't be done, can still be done.

How was your June?

Do you have any particular goals for the second half of the year?

If you're interested in a mid-year review from me, please let me know in the comments.

If you liked the report and would like to read more, feel free to follow me,

If you're not interested, feel free to keep scrolling or use the block function.

I added more Microsoft shares to my portfolio today, making them my largest position in the (single stock) portfolio. This means that I have "worsened" my "entry price" considerably. Who cares?

Sure, many are waiting for the perfect setback. I've often done that too.

Can also be really successful - but very often not. Most of the time you buy the dip - and it just keeps on dipping (in my example Novo, LVMH, Nike). The result is deep red figures in the portfolio, a strong imbalance and at the end of the day the chances of beating the market drop enormously.

At some point, it's no longer an investment, but just psychology coupled with emotion - and then it becomes dangerous.

That's why I currently prefer to build up positions that are successful & that I really want to hold for the long term - even if not through a -50

even if there are no "quick" profits to be made due to a -50% correction...

#backtotheroots

$MSFT (-0,23%)

For Microsoft, the best time is always now! 😎

$MSFT (-0,23%)

$IREN (+2,76%)

A large part of the investment thesis of $IREN (+2,76%) is linked to the company's ambitious expansion into the fast-growing AI/HPC sector.

While $IREN (+2,76%) Bitcoin mining yields remain exceptional, performance in this segment is heavily influenced by factors outside of the company's control - namely price, network difficulty and ASIC prices. $BTC (+1,25%) -price, network difficulty and ASIC prices.

Today's demand for AI computing power is only a fraction of what will be needed.

The reasons are:

- AI switches from text to real-time video, 3D and full scene understanding

- AI co-pilots integrated into every productivity and development tool

- Autonomous robots, vehicles and smart factories

- AI-generated content on a large scale: ads, movies, virtual worlds

- Constant retraining of boundary models, 100 times more computationally intensive

Access to AI computing power and related infrastructure will be critical for major tech companies to defend and grow their multi-billion dollar valuations. These players are outbidding each other, not only to secure capacity, but also to prevent others from obtaining it. Whoever controls the most computing power capacity and supporting infrastructure will gain a massive advantage over the other.

We have already seen this in the race for $NVDA (-0,57%) chips, the biggest bottleneck in the AI value chain today. But this bottleneck is shifting as computing capacity becomes increasingly constrained by access to AI-optimized energy infrastructure.

And here, in my opinion $IREN (+2,76%) that has more than 3 GW of AI-optimized infrastructure will benefit. It takes time to build, contracts for infrastructure and power connection contracts are becoming more difficult, and the land and locations required are becoming more expensive, $IREN (+2,76%) has recognized this early on.

Increase in hash rate since 2023:

$IREN (+2,76%) available today with $IREN (+2,76%) AI Cloud has $NVDA (-0,57%) H100 and H200 GPU clusters.

These clusters are powered 100% by renewable energy.

$MARA (+3,35%)
$CLSK (+2,72%)
$BTC (+1,25%)
$MSTR (+2,88%)
$RIOT (+3,54%)
$CRWV (-1,48%)
$META (-0,64%)
$AMZN (-0,85%)
$GOOGL (-0,43%)
$NVDA (-0,57%)
$MSFT (-0,23%)
$WULF (+2,96%)
$CIFR (+3,72%)
$CORZ (+0,89%)
$BTDR (+4,86%)

Masayoshi Son, CEO of the SoftBank Group

$9984 (-2,3%)announced plans to develop the company into a leading platform provider for "artificial superintelligence" within the next decade.

At the annual shareholders' meeting, he compared this goal to the dominance of Microsoft $MSFT (-0,23%), Amazon $AMZN (-0,85%) and Google $GOOGL (-0,43%) and referred to the "winner takes all" dynamic.

He defined artificial superintelligence as a technology that outperforms human capabilities by a factor of 10,000.

By 2025, SoftBank had invested massively in AI, including the acquisition of US chip designer Ampere for USD 6.5 billion and up to USD 40 billion in funding for OpenAI.

(...)

SoftBank's cyclical bets follow a historic boom-bust pattern:

Son's new "all-in" stance on OpenAI (32 billion US dollar investment) mirrors his previous high-risk tech bets that have shaped SoftBank's history.

This reflects a consistent pattern of massive, concentrated investments - from $100 million in Yahoo in 1996, to $20 million in Alibaba in 2000 (whose value grew to $130 billion), to the $100 billion Vision Fund in 2017.

(...)

This approach with high risk and high returnas critics have called it, has changed the risk capital landscape with inflated valuations and pressure on competitors to match the same level of funding.

(...)

SoftBank's strategic positioning mirrors previous battles over technology platforms.

Son's ambition to be the "organizer of the industry" in artificial superintelligence is reminiscent of the platform dominance strategies that spawned trillion-dollar companies like Microsoft, Amazon and Google.

SoftBank is strategically expanding its AI base through talent acquisition and infrastructure investmentsincluding the acquisition of semiconductor designer Ampere for $6.5 billion and a $40 billion commitment to OpenAI.

The company's approach leverages its historical strength in hardware through Arm Holdings to create an integrated AI ecosystem that includes chips, infrastructure and applications.

SoftBank's funding pattern typically encourages market consolidation, providing capital on a scale that forces smaller competitors to merge or exit - a strategy that fundamentally changes the competitive dynamics in target sectors.

This platform strategy is in line with Son's long-term vision, which he has been articulating since at least 2017: a future with one trillion connected devices by 2035, allowing SoftBank to capitalize on the massive data streams powering advanced AI systems.

⬇️⬇️⬇️

https://www.techinasia.com/news/softbank-aims-to-lead-in-artificial-super-intelligence

The share price has also been rising again for some time, as investors are generally becoming more optimistic. Nevertheless, it is still massively undervalued in my opinion. In addition to the crucial AI platform strategy (for which they themselves are creating demand with Stargate (USA, UAE, UK...), so theoretically benefit twice over), there are of course many other interesting investments and initiatives (Wayve, Grab $GRAB (+0,31%)Coupang $CPNG (-1,22%), 21 Capital, Helion, PayPay Expansion.....). Overall, I believe in the company's vision and see many indications that it could succeed :)

I'm starting to like posting here, sometimes you even get normal replies ^^

Another opinion poll.

I'm getting vacation pay and the building savings next week and would like to invest most of it, my question would be before the end of the tariff break and the Fed or after?

Would you rather buy in tranches, i.e. a little before the events and a little after, or fully before or after?

I am actually asking as an interest to learn from your experiences for the next decades.

Thanks for the constructive criticism,

My investment horizon is of course long-term, but I would still like to get into a share with a good upside. I buy the share that offers a good entry point $GOOGL (-0,43%)
$MSFT (-0,23%)
$NVDA (-0,57%)
$ASML (-0,95%)
$ALV (-0,44%) are actually my way too go.

Lg Flow

Hey Getquin Community,

I would be interested in your opinion.

I would like to buy a maximum of 3 shares to $VWRL (-0,39%) the tech sector.

Which would you choose?

My 3 would be

$NVDA (-0,57%)
$MSFT (-0,23%)
$ASML (-0,95%)

Lg Flo