Jumia ($JMIA (-11,6%) ) presented a mixture of strong growth in its operating business and financial challenges in the conference call for the fourth quarter of 2024. The marketplace showed positive momentum: orders for physical goods increased by 18% and active customers by 8%. Despite reduced marketing expenditure, Jumia was able to further strengthen its customer loyalty.

Nevertheless, macroeconomic headwinds weighed on the key financial figures. GMV fell by 12 % in USD, but grew by 13 % in constant currency. Sales fell by 23 % to USD 45.7 million (-2 % in constant currencies). The adjusted EBITDA loss deteriorated to USD -13.7 million and cash consumption rose to USD 30.6 million. Reasons for this include the currency devaluation, costs for the market exits in South Africa and Tunisia and investments in the consolidation of logistics.

CEO Francis Dufay emphasized two key priorities for 2025: sales growth and operational efficiency to improve profitability. Jumia plans to expand more into rural areas without increasing fixed costs and to further expand its product range. The company is increasingly focusing on international sourcing - particularly from China - and optimizing its vendor platform to attract new partners.

At the same time, cost management is to be further improved. Automation in the call center, the expansion of JForce agents (+39% to 29,000) and the consolidation of logistics space are intended to increase efficiency. Dufay remains optimistic: "With strict cost discipline and operational improvements, Jumia has a clear roadmap to profitability.

The following picture emerged from the analysts' questions:

Current trends in the first quarter of 2025: Analysts wanted to know whether the positive trend in orders would continue. Management was confident: growth of 15-20% year-on-year was realistic, supported by a disciplined cost focus.

Product range expansion: supply vs. demand side

Jumia sees the greater challenge on the supply side. Expanding the product range requires operational adjustments, better purchasing conditions and optimized tools for sellers. The long-term strategy is to attract more local and international suppliers in order to further improve the price-performance ratio for customers.

1P vs. 3P model: Will Jumia focus more on proprietary trading?

The company is sticking to its pragmatic approach: 1P (proprietary trading) is used when it is advantageous in terms of price and logistics. However, a massive shift in the mix is not planned.

Growth in physical orders vs. AOV (Average Order Value)

While the volume of physical orders is growing, the average order value has fallen. Jumia does not see this as a problem - in fact, a lower AOV enables broader market penetration. The decisive factor is profitability at order level, not the individual value of an order.

Logistics consolidation: can cost benefits be realized?

Jumia merged inefficient logistics centers in 2024. This change initially cost resources, but should bring efficiency gains in the long term: better control, lower fulfillment costs and higher productivity.

Fixed cost base: are further savings possible?

The savings made to date through cost reductions have largely been exhausted, but the management sees potential for a further 20% increase in efficiency. The current structure allows for a sales volume that is two to three times higher than at present.

Profitability target: What scaling is necessary?

Jumia must double or triple its volumes in order to become sustainably profitable with the current cost structure. The gross margin after fulfillment costs is between 6% and 8% and must be scaled through higher order numbers.

In summary, Jumia continues to focus on expansion, but is struggling with macroeconomic challenges. The company is optimizing its cost base, pushing ahead with digitalization and expanding its network - especially in rural areas. For investors with staying power, Jumia remains a speculative but potentially highly lucrative bet on the African e-commerce market.

I hope you enjoyed the summary!

I'm out for now - loss compensation and possible reallocation to $AMD (-8,01%) , $TMDX (-3,86%) and $JMIA (-11,6%)

$JMIA (-11,6%) - Company presentation (difficult market/great potential):

$JMIA (-11,6%) is an online trading company operating in Africa. The company offers a wide range of products such as electronic goods and fashion.

It offers payment, food delivery, credit and flight booking services.

They stand out in the African e-commerce landscape. Their innovative platform is revolutionizing traditional retail by offering a diverse range of products and services online that are tailored to the specific needs of the African market. The company's integrated payment system, JumiaPay, enhances the customer experience through a seamless, secure transaction process. Jumia's logistics network, designed to overcome regional challenges, ensures efficient delivery, strengthening the company's position as a leader in African e-commerce.

$JMIA (-11,6%) was founded in Lagos Nigeria in 2012 by two former management consultants Jeremy Hodara and Sacha Poignonnec.

$JMIA (-11,6%) is active in 11 African countries: Nigeria, Egypt, Morocco, Kenya, Ivory Coast, South Africa, Tunisia, Algeria, Ghana, Senegal, Uganda

$JMIA (-11,6%) Logistics enables the convenient and reliable delivery of goods. It consists of a large network of rented warehouses, pick-up stations for consumers and drop-off points for sellers, as well as more than 400 local external logistics service providers. Their logistics partners and facilities are seamlessly integrated and managed through their proprietary technology, data and processes.

$JMIA (-11,6%) is taxable in Berlin, the development team is based in Portugal and the actual headquarters are in Dublin .

For this reason, and because the nationality of the two CEOs is French, there are various doubts that $JMIA (-11,6%) is an African company, as is claimed in the self-promotion.

• In March 2016, the company managed to raise 50 million euros in venture capital
• As Africa's first "unicorn", the technology start-up reached a valuation of over 1 billion US dollars
• In April 2019, the company made its stock market debut on the New York Stock Exchange, raising capital of USD 196 million
• Jumia's share price initially tripled within the first three days of trading before settling back around the initial price a month later
• Among other things, the share price was negatively affected by the allegation made by the US portal Citron Research that Jumia had reported false key figures prior to the IPO.

Arguments for $JMIA (potential/giant market opportunities):

• Africa's e-commerce penetration is only ~5%, compared to over 20% globally, suggesting huge upside potential
• Africa's population is projected to account for 25% of the world's population by 2050 (a huge untapped consumer base)
• With an average age of 19.7 years - a young, digitally savvy consumer base.
• Internet penetration is growing rapidly and is expected to reach 65% by 2030, driven by affordable smartphones and growing infrastructure.
• $JMIA (-11,6%) is active in 11 major African markets and covers over 70% of the continent's GDP and internet users.
• Market leader in logistics: $JMIA (-11,6%) Processed 5.6 million parcels on Black Friday and has a delivery infrastructure that covers urban and rural areas
• Fintech expansion: JumiaPay increased transactions by 40% year-on-year, creating opportunities in Africa's underserved regions with banking services
• Financial upside and synergies: Jumia's market capitalization is USD 554 million, the company trades at only about double its revenue
• 1.7 billion Africans will join the consumer economy by 2030, driving demand for e-commerce
• Strong growth figures: GMV (Gross Merchandise Volume) +33% YoY (currency adjusted) showing robust demand.
• Orders +18 % YoY, driven by the success of Black Friday.
• Growth in the interior of Nigeria: +44 % YoY,
• Solid financial position: USD 164.6m in cash reserves - ample liquidity for future investments. Operating losses are falling every quarter, demonstrating cost discipline and efficiency gains.
• Attractive valuation: Trades at ~2x sales and 1.7x EV/sales, well below peers in high-growth markets. Market capitalization of USD 554m positions Jumia as a small-cap with significant upside potential.
• Strategic implementation: Focus on domestic expansion, procurement efficiency and adaptation to local markets. Utilization of logistical capacities: 5.6 million parcels were handled during the Black Friday season (+24% year-on-year).
• Long-term potential: Positioned as Africa's leading e-commerce platform. Benefits from improved infrastructure, increasing internet penetration and growing consumer acceptance.
• The African e-commerce market is expected to grow exponentially from USD 30 billion in 2024 to over USD 75 billion in 2030.

The anxiety around Jumia often revolves around a single question: what happens when giants like $AMZN (-3,47%) , $BABA (-9,21%) or $PDD (-8,03%) decide to enter the African market?

At first glance, this is a legitimate concern. But this perspective overlooks the essence of e-commerce success in Africa. It's not about flashy apps or sprawling warehouses in cities - it's about solving the logistical puzzle. And that's where Jumia's advantage lies. Africa's logistical challenges are unprecedented. In many regions, physical addresses are not a given, but a rarity, making deliveries difficult and turning traditional e-commerce models on their head.

$JMIA (-11,6%) operates in an environment where customers often live miles away from hubs and there are no traditional delivery points. This is where Jumia has built its moat. It's more than an e-commerce platform, it's a logistics powerhouse designed to tackle the complexities of the continent. It's not just about delivering parcels. Jumia's network connects remote and rural regions that global competitors may not be able to serve. Take Nigeria, for example. With a population of over 200 million, the consumer base extends far beyond the urban centers of Lagos. Selling products is one thing, reaching underserved regions with sparse infrastructure is another and this is where $JMIA (-11,6%) strength.

The logistics system is not easily replicated and is a barrier to entry that global giants must reckon with. International players eyeing Africa have a difficult choice: invest billions in building a comparable infrastructure or partner with $JMIA (-11,6%) whose network has already proven itself in markets such as Ghana, Kenya and the Ivory Coast. In either case $JMIA (-11,6%) benefit from this. The company is the natural ally - or rival - for any e-commerce player trying to gain a foothold in Africa. And $JMIA (-11,6%) is constantly improving its market position and is not satisfied. Operational improvements are further consolidating its position. Consolidating smaller warehouses into larger, technology-enabled facilities and optimizing fulfillment centers in core markets such as Nigeria and Ghana reduces $JMIA (-11,6%) inefficiencies. These changes not only reduce costs, but also create scalability, allowing the company to expand deeper into untapped regions where there is little competition.

Of course, the macroeconomic backdrop is tough. Currency devaluations and volatile markets weigh heavily on $JMIA (-11,6%) 's operating environment. But its logistics network remains an irreplaceable asset that global competitors struggle to replicate, even with significant investment. A current outstanding key figure underlines this: Over 50% of orders from $JMIA (-11,6%) now come from outside the major cities, a testament to its reach and resilience.

Western companies often dream of penetrating African markets, but constantly fail. Deciphering the African logistics code has proved too complex, and currency risks are driving many to retreat. Meanwhile $JMIA (-11,6%) is flourishing. It is adapting to challenges that others consider insurmountable and consolidating its leadership position.

Can competitors catch up? A question that is often asked ?

At the moment, they can't really. Jumia's logistics network is more than an operational tool, it's a fortress. This system, built to withstand Africa's unique challenges, is the foundation of its success. It is also the core of its strategy, the playbook of $AMZN (-3,47%) , $MELI (-4,71%) , $BABA (-9,21%) to follow.

Building a strong logistics network to create lasting barriers to market entry. The latest Black Friday results (as briefly outlined above) underline this potential. Orders increased by 18 % year-on-year, while GMV (Gross Merchandise Volume) grew by an impressive 33 % in constant currency.

However, significant currency devaluations in key markets such as Nigeria and Egypt dampened reported GMV growth to just 2%. Despite these headwinds, Jumia's underlying business demonstrates its ability to weather macroeconomic storms. The customer retention metrics speak for themselves. The total number of customers rose by 9% and orders increased by 18%.

A 44% increase in physical goods orders from regions outside Nigeria's major cities. This expansion into the interior of the country underlines the untapped potential that Jumia is beginning to develop.

The switch to an asset-light model is also paying off. Jumia Logistics recorded a 24% increase in parcel volumes, underlining the efficiency of its operations. On the supply side, international procurement is booming. The number of items from global sellers has risen by 31 %.

This diversifies the platform's offering to meet growing consumer demand. This diversification is critical to cementing Jumia's role in Africa's dynamic e-commerce landscape. And yet the market has not caught up. Despite this progress, Jumia's valuation is still not dependent on the dynamics of its core business.

Continued improvements in logistics, geographic expansion and customer acquisition could provide the basis for significant upside potential

However, the way forward will not be easy. Currency fluctuations in key markets and dependence on cash reserves pose risks. But Jumia offers a rare opportunity to enter one of the fastest growing e-commerce markets in the world. $JMIA (-11,6%) is far from over - it is just beginning.

Earnings highlights for the third quarter of 2024:

- Revenue of $36.4 million, down 13% YoY, or up 9% in constant currency

- GMV of $162.9 million, down 1% YoY, or up 29% in constant currency

- Operating loss of $20.1 million compared to $18.3 million in the third quarter of 2023, up 10% YoY, and up 6% in constant currency

- Adjusted EBITDA loss of $17.0 million compared to $14.8 million in the third quarter of 2023, up 15% YoY, and up 10% in constant currency

- Loss before income tax from continuing operations of $17.8 million in the third quarter of 2024, down 17% YoY or down 2% in constant currency

- Liquidity position of $164.6 million, an increase of $71.8 million in the third quarter of 2024, that includes the net proceeds from the August 2024 At-the-Market (ATM) offering, compared to a decrease of $19.0 million in the third quarter of 2023

- Net cash flows used in operating activities of $26.8 million compared to $24.0 million in the third quarter of 2023

• Summary and personal opinion: $JMIA (-11,6%) Blend of market leadership, operational improvements and growth in untapped regions, positions the company for exponential growth. At current levels, it could be a rewarding, very long-term investment in one of the most promising markets in the world, even if the environment is very challenging and the investment naturally carries a lot of risk. A takeover by a major player such as $AMZN (-3,47%) , $MELI (-4,71%) , $BABA (-9,21%) could also be possible, as setting up your own logistics is very difficult and costly. ✌️

$AMZN (-3,47%) , $MELI (-4,71%)
$BABA (-9,21%) , $SE (-10,71%) , $PDD (-8,03%) , $JD (-7,11%) , $9618 (-7,3%) , $9988 (-9,39%) , $CPNG (-6,01%) , $EBAY (-4,5%)

My biggest tenbagger opportunities: $JMIA (-11,6%) , $CELH and $ACHR

Investing always involves risk, but some stocks offer enormous growth potential. Here are my personal top 3 Tenbagger candidates:

1. Jumia Technologies $JMIA (-11,6%)

The "Amazon of Africa" operates in one of the fastest growing markets in the world. Despite challenges to date, the company could benefit from increasing internet penetration and the e-commerce boom in Africa.

2. celsius Holdings $CELH

The manufacturer of functional beverages such as energy drinks is showing strong sales growth and is expanding internationally. The brand has established itself as a fitness and lifestyle product, which offers further share price potential in the long term.

3 Archer Aviation $ACHR

This company develops electric air cabs and represents the future of urban mobility. With strategic partners and an innovative concept, Archer Aviation could revolutionize aviation and exploit an enormous market opportunity.

Which of these shares do you also see as potential tenbaggers? Join the discussion! 🚀

$JMIA (-11,6%) What do you think about Jumia and its development? Do you see great potential for the company on the African market? The continent offers huge growth opportunities, doesn't it?

Why $JMIA (-11,6%) could explode in the next 5 years: An analysis

$JMIA (-11,6%) often referred to as the "$AMZN (-3,47%) Africa", has the potential to experience exponential growth in the coming years and catapult the share price to USD 200 to 400. Here are the main arguments:

1. Africa's economic growth and demographic dynamics

Africa is one of the fastest growing markets in the world. The population is expected to grow to 2.5 billion people by 2050, with a young, tech-savvy population. Increasing internet access and the growing use of smartphones create the ideal basis for e-commerce.

$JMIA (-11,6%) is ideally positioned to benefit from this growth as it already has an established network in 11 countries, which together account for around 70% of Africa's GDP.

2. increasing e-commerce market share

The e-commerce share of total retail sales in Africa is still extremely low (less than 2%). By comparison, in developed markets such as the USA, this share is over 20 %. This means there is enormous growth potential.

$JMIA (-11,6%) has the infrastructure and know-how to play a leading role in this transformation. With the introduction of logistics and payment services such as JumiaPay, the company is creating a sustainable ecosystem that breaks down barriers for merchants and customers.

3. technological and infrastructural advances

Digitalization and the expansion of infrastructure in Africa are progressing rapidly. Access to 4G and 5G networks and the improvement of logistical networks will massively strengthen the e-commerce sector. Jumia, which already has its own logistics division, will benefit disproportionately from this.

4. focus on profitability

In recent years $JMIA (-11,6%) has taken important steps to become profitable. The cost structure has been optimized, unprofitable markets have been exited and the focus is now on high-margin areas such as the Marketplace business.

The path to profitability is a decisive factor for investor confidence and could lead to a revaluation of the share.

5 Strategic partnerships and investor interest

$JMIA (-11,6%) already has major partners such as Mastercard and international venture capital funds on board. Strategic alliances could be further strengthened in the future, especially if major players want to tap into the African market.

A possible takeover candidate by Amazon, Alibaba or other global giants cannot be ruled out - a scenario that could give the share price a massive boost.

6. low valuation and great opportunities

Compared to other e-commerce companies, Jumia is currently valued relatively low, which is due to the high risks in Africa and the unclear profitability to date. But this is precisely where the opportunity lies: if the growth forecasts and profitability prove to be true over the next few years, Jumia could easily be valued at a multiple that pushes the share price into the three-digit range.

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Conclusion

$JMIA (-11,6%) is not a risk-free investment, but the potential to benefit from Africa's unique growth story is enormous. With a well thought-out strategy, a leading market position and the right adaptation to market conditions, the share price could explode in the next 5 years - a level of USD 200 to 400 is not unrealistic if all factors come together.

Jumia could therefore be an exciting opportunity for long-term investors with a risk appetite.

Now it's time to let your "pants" down.

Which are your 3 current "grey pellets" in the portfolio and/or which ones did you part with last?

My hit list:

$JMIA (-11,6%) with -89%

$NVAX (+11,61%) with -94%

$JK with -95%

Jumia and Just kitchen had to leave the group last week and just now unfortunately😜