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Mid-April 2025 finds the tanker market navigating turbulent waters. VLCCs grapple with softer forecasts amid trade wars, Suezmax and Aframax ride high on Atlantic scarcity, and clean tankers seize new routes from Argentina to Mexico. Sanctions choke Venezuelan flows, U.S. port fees loom, and shadow fleets bend under pressure. This is a sector steering through chaos with resilience—let’s dive into its journey.

⏬ VLCC Market: Holding the Line

Earnings Snapshot

The VLCC fleet, crude’s colossal carriers, faces headwinds as global demand forecasts falter. Baltic Exchange spot rates from Middle East-to-Asia hover at $36,500 per day, with Clarksons Securities slashing 2025-2026 projections to $50,000 per day (down from $70,000), citing trade war impacts. Eco-ships are projected to earn $53,000 daily, older units $46,000. DHT Holdings $DHT (-0,72%) reports Q2 spot bookings at $48,700 per day (56% covered) and time-charter earnings at $45,100. A seven-year charter for DHT Appaloosa at $41,000 daily (plus profit-sharing) signals long-term faith, though tariff jitters keep sentiment cautious.

Supply and Demand Shifts

OPEC+’s output hike and Venezuela’s halted U.S. exports reshape flows. Venezuela’s 250,000 barrels per day to China (four VLCCs monthly) may lean on shadow fleets or transshipment hubs like Malaysia, per Braemar, limiting mainstream gains. However, Pakistan’s proposed 16 million barrel U.S. crude imports (eight VLCCs) and China’s 7.3 million barrel Canadian surge via Trans Mountain Pipeline offer long-haul promise. U.S. sanctions sideline Iranian shadow VLCCs (e.g., Bestla, Egret), potentially freeing 13 compliant ships for 500,000 barrels daily—Clarksons sees rates struggling below $45,000 without this shift.

Broader Impacts

The IEA’s 33% cut in 2025 oil demand growth (to 730,000 barrels per day) and OPEC’s 1.3 million barrel forecast dent confidence, with Brent crude at $61.57 per barrel pressuring shale output by 2026. U.S.-China tariffs (145% vs. 10% globally) and U.S. port fees ($18-$33 per net tonne by 2028) spark caution, though exemptions for ballast vessels ease fears. DHT’s sale of Chinese-built VLCCs Lotus and Peony for $103 million reflects strategic pivots—VLCCs hold steady, eyeing tighter fundamentals.

⏳ Suezmax Market: Atlantic Surge

Rate Climb

Suezmax tankers, mid-tier powerhouses, soar on Atlantic scarcity. Spot earnings top $50,000 per day, with Braemar noting firm markets as Venezuela’s export halt (200,000 barrels per day to the U.S.) floods the basin with available ships. Czechia’s shift to Transalpine Pipeline imports via Trieste (from Russian Druzhba) boosts Mediterranean demand for Norwegian and Azerbaijani crude. Rates for eco-Suezmax climb to $52,000 daily, up from $47,000 last week, driven by tight tonnage and rerouting.

Hot Zones

Venezuela’s suspension of Chevron’s $CVX (+0,41%) cargoes (e.g., Dubai Attraction, Carina Voyager) leaves eight Aframaxes monthly seeking Atlantic trades, indirectly tightening Suezmax lists. Turkey’s Tupras resumes Russian Urals at $57 per barrel, with Kyklades’ Nissos Christiana delivering 730,000 barrels to Izmit. Pakistan’s potential U.S. crude imports (16 Suezmaxes equivalent) add upside. Mediterranean fixtures rise as Czechia’s 175,000 barrel-per-day refineries tap TAL—scarcity fuels this fiery ascent.

Trade Twists

U.S. sanctions on Iranian tankers (e.g., Reston, Nyantara) and Chinese refiners like Shandong Shengxing curb shadow fleet capacity, nudging mainstream demand. China’s pivot to Canadian crude (7.3 million barrels in March) stretches Pacific hauls, while Venezuela’s pivot to Asia via transshipment hubs like Singapore tests compliance. Tariff pauses (90 days for Pakistan) offer breathing room, but geopolitical heat keeps Suezmax on edge—resilient yet alert.

⏱️ Aframax Market: Atlantic Thunder

Rate Highlights

Aframax tankers, agile crude haulers, roar with spot earnings exceeding $50,000 per day. U.S. Gulf-to-UK Continent rates hit WS195, yielding $54,000 daily, while Mediterranean rates climb to WS180, netting $62,000. Venezuela’s export freeze floods the Atlantic with tonnage, yet redirected ships find work in Brazil-to-China ($18.74 per tonne) and Trieste-bound Czech flows. Baltic TCE rises to $50,500 per day (up $1,200 daily), with eco-Aframax at $53,000—Atlantic vigor prevails.

Tonnage Trends

Venezuela’s halt (six Aframaxes idled, including Pegasus Star, Ionic Anax) creates a surplus, but Braemar expects quick redeployment to non-sanctioned trades like Guyana-to-Europe. George Economou’s sale of eight Aframaxes (e.g., Monarch I, Saraswati) to Chinese buyers for Russian trades tightens compliant tonnage—six ships lift Urals from Primorsk in March. U.S. port fees exempt vessels under 55,000 dwt, sparing smaller Aframaxes—lists tighten as demand holds.

Sanctions Strain

Russian Urals at $57 per barrel (below G7’s $60 cap) draw Greek owners like Stealth Maritime (Suez Enchanted) to Primorsk, with G7-insured tankers up 36% in March. U.S. sanctions blacklist 140 shadow ships, squeezing Russia’s fleet—mainstream Aframaxes fill the gap, hauling to India and China. Czechia’s TAL shift and Tupras’ Russian pivot add cargoes—sanctions reshape routes, but Aframax thrives on Atlantic strength.

For illustrative purposes

⏸️ LR/MR/Handymax Market: New Horizons

Rate Rundown

Clean tankers sail divergent paths. LR2 MEG-to-Japan drops to WS125, netting $30,000 daily, while LR1 MEG-to-UK Continent falls to $2.9 million. MR Pacific rates slide to $19,500 per day (down 15%), but Atlantic MRs hold at $22,000. Torm’s $TRMD A (-0,6%) MR Torm Singapore pioneers 300,000 barrels of ultra-low sulphur diesel from Mexico’s Dos Bocas refinery, and Tsakos’ $TNP (-0,61%) LR1 Chantal and Selecao lift 1.47 million barrels of Argentine fuel oil to the U.S. Handymax Med TC6 jumps to WS195, yielding $25,000 daily—West shines, East fades.

Market Moods

New trades spark optimism. Argentina’s fuel oil exports hit 66,000 barrels per day in March (up from 7,000), driven by arbitrage to Houston and Honolulu. The UK-to-Colombia petrol route (Energy Ariadne, 41,000 tonnes) reopens after a year, fueled by Europe’s 350,000 barrel-per-day surplus. Mexico’s Olmeca refinery curbs U.S. clean imports, yet Dos Bocas exports lift MR demand. Eastern LR rates sag, but Western MRs and Handymax surge on tight supply—split seas define this market.

Outside Forces

U.S. port fees (71% of tanker orderbooks Chinese-built) prompt sales like DHT’s VLCCs, but exemptions for small vessels shield MRs. Tufton $SHPC Assets sees tankers benefiting from tariff-driven rerouting—South America’s petrol deficit and Europe’s surplus stretch tonne-miles. Sanctions on Iranian and Venezuelan flows push shadow trades to Asia, capping clean tanker gains—Western markets lead, buoyed by new routes.

The Petroleos Mexicanos Dos Bocas Refinery in Paraiso, Mexico - For illustrative purposes

🌐 What’s Moving It: Oil and Geopolitics

Oil and Supply

IEA’s 730,000 barrel-per-day demand growth (down 300,000) and OPEC’s 1.3 million forecast signal softer oil needs, with Brent at $61.57. Venezuela’s 680,000 barrel-per-day exports pivot to China (250,000 barrels), Pakistan eyes 16 million U.S. barrels, and Czechia’s TAL shift adds Mediterranean cargoes. Sanctions sideline shadow fleets (140 Russian, five Iranian tankers), lifting mainstream utilization—oil flows steer this market’s course.

Global Dynamics

U.S.-China tariffs (145%) and Venezuelan sanctions (25% on buyers) disrupt flows, though 90-day pauses offer relief. U.S. port fees ($18-$33 per net tonne) and Houthi strikes in Yemen add tension, but tankers outpace containers, per Tufton, via rerouting. George Economou’s ISAB refinery seeks new suppliers, signaling trade shifts—geopolitical storms test tanker resilience.

🌐 Market and Stocks: Value in the Vortex

Stock Swings

Tanker stocks rebound 13% week-on-week, per Clarksons, after a 13% tariff-driven drop. Frontline $FRO (+0,22%) jumps 20% to $15.50, DHT $DHT (-0,72%) rises to $10.71, but IEA’s demand cut trims gains—Frontline, DHT, and International Seaways $INSW (-0,56%) dip 2%. Tufton’s $SHPC Q1 profit falls to $8 million (from $11.76 million), with a -10.4% NAV return as asset values slide. Clean tanker stocks like Scorpio $STNG (-0,58%) (down 1%) and Torm $TRMD A (-0,6%) (down 2%) hold firmer.

Investor Angles

Clarksons sees tanker equities at 73% of NAV for crude (58% for clean), implying VLCC rates below $40,000—undervalued with upside. Suezmax and Aframax earnings above $50,000 draw buyers, per Seaborne’s Eva Tzima, with IMS’ $26.3 million LR2 purchase signaling confidence. Tufton eyes rerouting benefits, while sanctions on shadow fleets could tighten markets—investors see value, but tariff risks linger.

Sector Outlook

Scaled-back port fees and tariff pauses lift sentiment, but Chinese tariffs threaten costs. Aging fleets (12% over 20 years) and low orderbooks (3% growth) hint at 2026 tightness. Stocks lag fundamentals, ripe for gains if trade stabilizes—tankers gleam as undervalued bets in the chaos.

For illustrative purposes

🌐 Outlook: Shifting Currents

Fluid Futures

VLCCs hover at $36,000-$50,000 daily—sanctions and new trades offer lift—steady. Suezmax at $50,000-$55,000—Atlantic scarcity powers on—robust. Aframax at $50,000-$62,000—Atlantic thunders—strong. Clean tankers split: LR at $25,000-$30,000, MR at $19,000-$22,000—West rises, East wanes—mixed. Rerouting and sanctions shape upside—2026 beckons if stability holds.

Your Call

Will Suezmax keep soaring, or clean tankers steal the show? Share your take—let’s chart the seas! 🚢

$NAT (-0,79%)

$FRO (+0,22%)

$TRMD A (-0,6%)

$STNG (-0,58%)

$OET (-0,97%)

$HAFNI (-1,09%)

$DHT (-0,72%)

$TNK (-0,57%)

$ASC (-0,53%)

$INSW (-0,56%)

*The Worldscale (WS) rate is a system used to calculate tanker freight rates, where WS 100 represents a standard base rate for a specific route. Rates above or below this benchmark indicate how much more or less a charterer will pay relative to the base cost. A higher WS rate means better earnings for shipowners, while a lower WS rate means lower transportation costs for charterers.

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$CVX (+0,41%)

$TTE (-0,69%)

https://youtu.be/cxCzxKou4FE?si=xVEy7AfisxIDSMnb

Mid-April 2025 casts the tanker market into a gripping saga of resilience and flux. VLCCs stand firm against oil price plunges, Suezmax and Aframax soar on scarce tonnage, and clean tankers weave between Eastern woes and Western grit. Sanctions tighten, tariffs loom, and shadow fleets slip through cracks. This is a tale of a sector thriving amid chaos—let’s set sail.

⏬ VLCC Market: Steadfast Giants

Earnings Snapshot

The VLCC fleet, those towering behemoths of crude, holds its ground as oil prices falter. Middle East Gulf-to-China rates linger at WS54.10, delivering $36,533 per day after a $1,100 weekly dip. West Africa-to-China rests at WS58.19, yielding $41,981 daily with a $700 gain, while U.S. Gulf-to-China settles at $8.26 million, equating to $46,629 per day after a $1,000 drop. Earnings cling to the mid-$30,000s, a sturdy anchor as Brent crude slumps to $63 per barrel (its lowest since 2021), trimming bunker costs. Robust cargo flows keep rates buoyant, even as stock markets tremble with unease.

Supply Boosts

A fresh gust lifts the market as OPEC+ unveils a bold 411,000 barrel-per-day output hike, set to ripple through from May. New cargoes will hit the water next week, promising a lifeline against softening trends. Meanwhile, U.S. sanctions on Iran’s exports carve out shadow fleet capacity, sidelining 54 VLCCs and pushing utilization to 90% from 83% since October 2024. Off Malaysia’s east coast, two Russian Suezmaxes offload 2 million barrels to the VLCC Atila, now steaming toward Dongjiakou, China, by April 9. Shadow trades flex their resilience, tightening the reins on compliant tonnage, and VLCCs ride this swell with quiet strength.

Broader Impacts

Global tides tug at the horizon. U.S.-China tariffs climb to 145% versus 125%, stirring unease among traders, with Frontline’s stock down 34% since January yet rebounding 4% in recent Oslo trading. OPEC+’s bullish move jars against recession murmurs, but VLCCs find footing in low orderbooks and an aging fleet averaging 15 years. Analysts glimpse a late-2025 surge if sanctions and output align. For now, stability reigns, with promise bubbling beneath the surface.

For illustrative purposes

⏳ Suezmax Market: Cresting the Wave

Rate Climb

Suezmax tankers, mid-tier maestros of crude, seize a scarcity-driven ascent. Nigeria-to-UK Continent rates rise to WS104.72, netting $48,650 daily after a 9-point gain. Guyana-to-UK Continent reaches WS103.61, delivering $47,818 per day with a 7-point uptick, while CPC-to-Mediterranean steadies at WS130, yielding $65,500 daily. Middle East Gulf-to-Med inches to WS91, and the Baltic TCE leaps to $56,540 per day (a 2025 peak), adding $1,428 in a day. Tight U.S. Gulf and West Africa lists propel late April fixtures to WS102.5 for 145kt cargoes, handing owners a commanding perch.

Hot Zones

The U.S. Gulf ignites with chaos as fixture failures force charterers to secure ships via unconventional routes, shelling out premiums as tonnage vanishes. West Africa pulses with unresolved stems, where owners spurn softer deals, betting on further gains. The Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) roars back with 1.6 million barrels daily from the Black Sea, driven by Kazakhstan’s Tengiz field, stretching hauls to Asia. Middle East Gulf tonnage fades as some vessels ballast south to the Cape of Good Hope, lifting eco-Suezmax rates to $50,300 daily from $45,000 last week. Scarcity fuels this fiery climb.

Trade Twists

Trade flows twist under strain. A Chinese Suezmax, Arina, ferries Venezuelan Merey crude from Cuba to Asia, dodging sanctions or shedding surplus. India rejects the Andaman Skies over non-IACS class issues, prompting a cargo swap to Ozanno for Vadinar delivery. CPC’s export revival and U.S. license cuts in Venezuela (Repsol pivots to Mexican Maya) stoke Suezmax demand. Tariffs rumble in the distance, yet today, scarcity keeps this market ablaze, with risks lurking for tomorrow.

Oil tanker Kerala, chartered by Chevron $CVX (+0,41%)
, is being loaded in the Bajo Grande oil terminal at Maracaibo Lake, Venezuela, January 5, 2023 - for illustrative purposes

⏱️ Aframax Market: Atlantic Roar

Rate Highlights

Aframax tankers, the fleet’s nimble warriors, roar across the Atlantic. U.S. Gulf-to-UK Continent peaks at WS200 before settling at WS190, yielding $52,404 daily after an 11-point rise. East Coast Mexico-to-U.S. Gulf hits WS225.83, delivering $68,309 per day, and Covenas-to-U.S. Gulf reaches WS221.56, netting $61,039 daily—both up 4 points. Cross-Mediterranean climbs to WS178.39, offering $60,646 per day, while North Sea holds at WS135-137.5, equating to $53,221 daily. The Baltic TCE rises to $49,397 per day (2025’s high), gaining $1,015 in a day—Atlantic might echoes loud.

Tonnage Trends

U.S. tariffs on Canadian oil redirect ships to Europe, siphoning Mediterranean tonnage. The U.S. Gulf’s gravitational pull deters ballasters, amplifying rate gains. Mid-April cargoes mostly settle, though stragglers may stretch timelines. Black Sea earnings stand tall with few available ships, while Mediterranean oversupply curbs third-decade fixes—Atlantic vigor lifts the region’s tide. Eco-Aframax rates touch $52,000 daily, outpacing yearly norms as thinning lists stoke the flames.

Sanctions Strain

Sanctions ripple outward. Four shadow Aframaxes—Hui Hai Atlantic, Krymsk, Reneez, and Ladoga—slip Russian and Iranian crude into China’s Dongying after AIS blackouts. Sovcomflot shifts 700,000 barrels of Sakhalin crude off Hong Kong to Gulei, China, bending around curbs. India’s IACS stance narrows compliant options, and U.S. pressure on Iranian facilitators adds tension. Yet Aframax roars on Atlantic strength, unfazed by the undertow—for now.

For illustrative purposes

⏸️ LR/MR/Handymax Market: Currents Apart

Rate Rundown

Clean tankers sail divergent paths. LR2 MEG-to-Japan plunges from WS250 to WS130.28, with MEG-to-UK Continent dropping $271,000 to $3.73 million. LR1 MEG-to-Japan eases to WS139.69, MEG-to-UK Continent falls to $2.86 million, yet UK Continent-to-West Africa holds at WS130, yielding $25,000 daily. MR MEG-to-East Africa slips to WS190, UK Continent-to-U.S. Atlantic dips to WS132.5 ($13,895/day), and U.S. Gulf TC14 slides to WS98.57 ($19,668/day basket). Handymax Med TC6 leaps to WS192.22, while UK Continent TC23 lingers at WS150—East and West drift apart.

Market Moods

Asia’s clean waters darken as weak demand drags LR rates, though cheaper bunkers soften the sting. The West stirs with life—Handymax Med surges on short supply, and U.S. Gulf resists collapse, holding above Covid lows at $19,668 daily basket. Q1 spot rates rival late-2024 peaks, with rising crack spreads defying gloom—OPEC+’s boost could stretch clean hauls if refineries roar. Eastern fade meets Western flicker in this split-sea tale.

Outside Forces

U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil movers intersect with gray fleet pressures. BRS predicts 60 ships—especially LR2 and Aframax—could face scrapping if Russian curbs ease. Tariff jitters drag stocks into the mire, yet tankers’ lean balance sheets (25% debt-to-asset ratios) signal endurance. Clean markets teeter between Eastern slump and Western spark—external winds shape their course.

🌐 What’s Moving It: Oil and Tensions

Oil and Supply

OPEC+’s 411,000 barrel-per-day hike and CPC’s 1.6 million barrel-per-day exports fuel tanker demand. Brent at $63 trims fuel costs, though stock volatility keeps owners on edge. Shadow trades off Malaysia, China, and Hong Kong—moving over 4 million barrels—persist, with sanctions shrinking compliant fleets and lifting utilization. Oil’s surge steers this ship.

Global Dynamics

U.S. sanctions target 30 tankers tied to Iranian and Houthi networks. U.S.-China tariffs (145% vs. 125%) and EU’s 25% countermeasures brew trade war fears. Tankers shine with old fleets and low debt—resilience amid geopolitical storms sets them apart from faltering sectors like containers.

🌐 Market and Stocks: Value in the Vortex

Stock Swings

Tanker stocks weather a brutal squall. Frontline $FRO (+0,22%) slides 34% since January, clawing back 4% recently, while Teekay $TNK (-0,57%) nears cash-plus-scrap value ($14 million for a 15-year Suezmax). Hafnia $HAFNI (-1,09%) and Scorpio $STNG (-0,58%) slump to Covid-era lows, yet Q1 rates defy the gloom—tariffs cast a heavy shadow, misaligning stocks with fundamentals.

Investor Angles

Pareto deems the sell-off excessive, noting firms with 25% debt-to-asset ratios trade at trough vessel values—unheard of with elevated rates and newbuild prices. If valuations stagnate, buybacks or take-private moves could surge. Scorpio $STNG (-0,58%) and Torm $TRMD A (-0,6%) lead with deleveraged balance sheets, poised to weather storms. DNB positions tankers to outlast containers in a recession, thanks to rerouting benefits—value beckons, but patience is the watchword—upside whispers grow louder.

Sector Outlook

U.S. tariff pauses (excluding China) nudge shares upward, yet 145% Chinese tariffs cloud consumer impacts. Aging fleets (10% over 20 years) and inflation hint at a 2028 tightening—near-term jitters mask long-term bets. Stocks lag reality, ripe for a rebound if trade steadies—undervalued gems gleam in the chaos.

Tanker stocks - previous close prices (April 10th)(Prev) and intraday (April 11th) moves (Chg %)

🌐 Outlook: Shifting Horizons

Fluid Futures

VLCCs hover at $36,000-$46,000 daily—OPEC+ steadies the keel—resilient yet poised. Suezmax spans $47,000-$65,000 per day—scarcity powers ahead—robust and ready. Aframax ranges $49,000-$68,000 daily—Atlantic thunders on—strong as steel. Clean tankers diverge—LRs at $25,000-$36,000, MRs at $13,000-$19,000 daily—West rises, East wanes—mixed currents flow.

Your Call

Will Suezmax hold its crest, or VLCCs reclaim the helm? Share your take—let’s chart the course! 🚢

1 Year T/C - VLCC SUEZMAX AFRAMAX ECO / SCRUBBER - April 9th

$NAT (-0,79%)

$FRO (+0,22%)

$TRMD A (-0,6%)

$STNG (-0,58%)

$OET (-0,97%)

$HAFNI (-1,09%)

$DHT (-0,72%)

$TNK (-0,57%)

$ASC (-0,53%)

$INSW (-0,56%)

*The Worldscale (WS) rate is a system used to calculate tanker freight rates, where WS 100 represents a standard base rate for a specific route. Rates above or below this benchmark indicate how much more or less a charterer will pay relative to the base cost. A higher WS rate means better earnings for shipowners, while a lower WS rate means lower transportation costs for charterers.