Nothing seems to stop the recovery of the tanker stocks today after an unjustified sell-off last week !

$ASC (+2,15%)
$TNK (+8,46%)
$NAT (+6,7%)
$TRMD A (+1,93%)
$STNG (+5,72%)
$OET (+4,86%)
$HAFNI (+3,45%)
$INSW (+6,94%)
$FRO (+9,1%)
$DHT (+6,26%)

Mid-April 2025 casts the tanker market into a gripping saga of resilience and flux. VLCCs stand firm against oil price plunges, Suezmax and Aframax soar on scarce tonnage, and clean tankers weave between Eastern woes and Western grit. Sanctions tighten, tariffs loom, and shadow fleets slip through cracks. This is a tale of a sector thriving amid chaos—let’s set sail.

⏬ VLCC Market: Steadfast Giants

Earnings Snapshot

The VLCC fleet, those towering behemoths of crude, holds its ground as oil prices falter. Middle East Gulf-to-China rates linger at WS54.10, delivering $36,533 per day after a $1,100 weekly dip. West Africa-to-China rests at WS58.19, yielding $41,981 daily with a $700 gain, while U.S. Gulf-to-China settles at $8.26 million, equating to $46,629 per day after a $1,000 drop. Earnings cling to the mid-$30,000s, a sturdy anchor as Brent crude slumps to $63 per barrel (its lowest since 2021), trimming bunker costs. Robust cargo flows keep rates buoyant, even as stock markets tremble with unease.

Supply Boosts

A fresh gust lifts the market as OPEC+ unveils a bold 411,000 barrel-per-day output hike, set to ripple through from May. New cargoes will hit the water next week, promising a lifeline against softening trends. Meanwhile, U.S. sanctions on Iran’s exports carve out shadow fleet capacity, sidelining 54 VLCCs and pushing utilization to 90% from 83% since October 2024. Off Malaysia’s east coast, two Russian Suezmaxes offload 2 million barrels to the VLCC Atila, now steaming toward Dongjiakou, China, by April 9. Shadow trades flex their resilience, tightening the reins on compliant tonnage, and VLCCs ride this swell with quiet strength.

Broader Impacts

Global tides tug at the horizon. U.S.-China tariffs climb to 145% versus 125%, stirring unease among traders, with Frontline’s stock down 34% since January yet rebounding 4% in recent Oslo trading. OPEC+’s bullish move jars against recession murmurs, but VLCCs find footing in low orderbooks and an aging fleet averaging 15 years. Analysts glimpse a late-2025 surge if sanctions and output align. For now, stability reigns, with promise bubbling beneath the surface.

The tanker market in early April 2025 blends steady rhythms with sudden jolts, shaped by regional dynamics and bold geopolitical moves. VLCCs are easing in the Middle East as cargo demand softens, yet the Atlantic keeps them afloat with solid exports. Suezmax faces headwinds from terminal disruptions and surplus ships, while Aframax thrives in the West on tight supply and Canadian crude shifts. Clean tankers—LRs, MRs, and Handymax—struggle with weak demand, especially eastward. U.S. tariffs on Venezuelan and Russian oil, Panama’s shadow fleet purge, and Iran’s Gulf seizures are reshaping trade, with fees on Chinese-built ships adding complexity. As of April 4, 2025, it’s a market of resilience and rupture, driven by global headlines.

This update unpacks VLCC, Suezmax, Aframax, and LR/MR/Handymax, spotlighting the events that matter. From sanctions to supply shocks, here’s a clear, engaging rundown—easy to follow, rich with insight.

⏬ VLCC Market: Eastern Drift, Western Lift

Market Trends and Earnings

Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs), the ocean-spanning oil haulers, are seeing earnings slip in the Middle East Gulf, settling around $36,465 per day by April 4 as mid-month cargo bookings dwindled. In the Atlantic, the story shifts—U.S. Gulf routes hold firm near $46,055/day—exporters there rely on steady demand to offset Eastern weakness. Gibsons paints a picture of a sluggish Middle East, where relet ships flooded the market, overwhelming thin April 10-20 loadings and eroding owners’ rate defenses. Jefferies notes VLCC spot averages at $45,000/day, edging past Q1’s $44,000, while Clarksons pegs eco-VLCCs at $49,200/day, showing mainstream crude still has legs.

Sanctions and Trade Shifts

U.S. tariffs of 25% on Venezuelan oil buyers, launched in late March, cut Jose port loadings—Kpler reports just 7 cargoes in March versus 15 in February—pushing more hauls across the Atlantic. President Trump’s March 31 threat of 25%-50% tariffs on Russian oil buyers adds pressure—India rejected the sanctioned Andaman Skies with 767,000 barrels, signaling tighter compliance. Panama’s April 1 move to deflag 125 sanctioned ships, including 68 tankers, shrinks the shadow fleet, redirecting cargoes to mainstream VLCCs via sales and purchases. Clarksons highlights a Q1 demand bump as India and China snapped up replacement crude—though a Pacific slowdown looms.

Geopolitical Risks and Outlook

Iran’s April 1 seizure of two tankers with 3 million liters of diesel in the Gulf raises the stakes—Ambrey warns U.S.-linked ships could face retaliation after the U.S. seized $47 million in Iranian oil proceeds. Oil firms and traders have capped rate spikes, prioritizing logistics—Gibsons sees a cycle bottom nearing, with Atlantic strength as VLCCs’ lifeline. The market’s split—West steadies, East drifts—keeps earnings balanced for now.

The tanker market in late March 2025 is a tale of contrasts and catalysts. VLCCs hold steady with subtle gains, buoyed by U.S. Gulf tightness and Venezuelan export curbs, while Suezmax firms in the Atlantic but faces supply headwinds. Aframax rates explode, driven by Mediterranean frenzy and Canadian crude rerouting, and clean tankers—LRs, MRs, Handymax—see mixed fortunes with Eastern strength fading. U.S. tariffs on Venezuelan oil buyers, a Russia-Ukraine maritime truce, and Thailand’s rail bypass plan shake up trade flows. Iran’s forged Iraqi documents and Saudi production whispers add intrigue. It’s a market balancing resilience with disruption—rates are up, but risks are stacking.

This update dives into VLCC, Suezmax, Aframax, and LR/MR/Handymax trends, unpacking the forces at play. From freight surges to geopolitical pivots, here’s the detailed scoop—clear and grounded.

⏬ VLCC Market: Holding Firm Amid Flux

Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs), the titans of oil transport, trudged along with Middle East Gulf-to-China (TD3C) rates easing to WS 58.95, yielding a round-trip TCE of $39,224 per day as of March 28.

West Africa-to-China (TD15) slipped to WS 59.88 ($40,899/day), but U.S. Gulf-to-China (TD22) climbed to $8.522M ($45,838/day), up $262,555, reflecting a tight position list in the Gulf.

Modern tonnage for MEG eastbound runs is scarce, pushing charterers to older ships or ex-dry dock options at discounts—West Africa and Brazil offer more breathing room with balanced supply.

U.S. tariffs (25%) on Venezuelan oil buyers—effective March 25—slashed loadings at Jose port, with Chevron’s exit looming by May 27, dropping March exports from 15 to 7 cargoes.

Venezuela’s 790,000 bpd February exports (256,000 bpd to U.S.) now face rerouting—Arctic Securities sees VLCCs gaining from longer hauls like Canada or Saudi Arabia replacing them.

Breakwave suggests Saudi Arabia might flood markets as in 2015, potentially driving VLCC rates to $100,000/day if OPEC+ unwinds 2.2M bpd cuts starting April.

Clarksons notes a $48,800/day fleet average on March 26, down 4%—rates ticked to $46,263 by Friday—showing steadiness despite cooling from a $47,834 peak on March 19.

Iraq’s oil minister flagged Iranian tankers using forged Iraqi manifests—U.S. seizures in the Gulf underline Trump’s “maximum pressure” on Iran, tightening shadow fleet scrutiny.

Thailand’s $29bn Landbridge rail could bypass Malacca by 2030, trimming 2,000 km off VLCC routes—though years away, it’s a future wildcard.

MOL and CMB.Tech’s ammonia-fueled bulkers (not tankers) signal decarbonization’s ripple—VLCCs might feel fuel shifts later.

The market’s “steady as she goes”—U.S. Gulf strength and tariff fallout keep it afloat, but oversupply risks loom if Saudi acts.

The tanker market in late March 2025 is firing on multiple fronts. VLCC rates shot up as Middle East cargoes snapped up ships, while Suezmax hit a yearly high in the Mediterranean with Kazakh oil pumping strong. Aframax lags with patchy demand, but clean tankers—LRs, MRs, and Handymax—are riding an Eastern wave of gains. U.S. sanctions are slamming shadow fleets, proposed port fees on Chinese ships spark debate, and Red Sea tensions stretch routes. Venezuela’s export shake-up looms, and Russian oil keeps flowing through sneaky transfers. It’s a high-stakes scene with solid rates and big uncertainties brewing.

This update breaks down VLCC, Suezmax, Aframax, and LR/MR/Handymax trends, plus the forces rocking the boat. From freight spikes to geopolitical jolts, here’s the full picture—laid out clear and simple.

⏬ VLCC Market: Rates Jump, Eyes on April

VLCCs, the giants of crude shipping, saw rates leap to $52,100/day on Middle East-to-Asia runs—a 33% weekly jump—as Saudi April cargoes drained a tight tonnage pool.

A MEG/Korea trip hit WS 67.5 ($51,536/day TCE), nudging toward WS 70, while West Africa to China (TD15) climbed to WS 66.75 ($49,598/day) and U.S. Gulf to China (TD22) rose to $7.797M ($40,321/day).

Atlantic support comes from Brazil and West Africa, but U.S. Gulf stumbles—tariff threats of $1.5M per port call on Chinese-built ships slow exports, though TD22 gained $455,000.

Sanctions nabbed five VLCCs like Kohana (Iran-linked) and tracked Sovcomflot’s STS off Hong Kong—700,000 barrels to Hannah—yet India (1.6M bpd) and China keep Russian oil flowing.

Venezuela’s 790,000 bpd exports face a Chevron $CVX (-0,65%) exit—Clarksons predicts a 0.5% tonne-mile boost if Middle East crude fills the U.S. gap.

The Daban’s month-long Russian oil trek ended in Qingdao, dodging sanctions via three Sovcomflot Aframaxes—shadow fleets adapt fast.

Fearnley sees yields over 10% for Frontline $FRO (+9,1%) and DHT $DHT (+6,26%) —rates could stick above $50,000/day if April stays hot, though futures lag the spot surge.

Activity’s set to hum—Atlantic production rises as peak export season nears, keeping owners hopeful.

The tanker market in mid-March 2025 shows stark contrasts. VLCCs face an eerie calm in the U.S. Gulf amid Trump’s tariff uncertainty, while Suezmax rates soar with tight tonnage in Europe and West Africa. Aframax softens slightly, as clean tankers—MR and LR—see mixed fortunes: LR2s spike in the MEG, but MRs lag in the U.S. Gulf. New U.S. sanctions on shadow fleet VLCCs and tugs, plus potential Iranian interdictions, rattle the sector, with $1.5M port fees looming for Chinese-built ships. Investors eyeing tanker stocks navigate a landscape of regional strength, geopolitical risks, and trade shifts.

This update covers VLCC, Suezmax, Aframax, MR, and LR trends, plus key external drivers. From rate movements to sanction shocks, here’s the latest—volatility’s in the spotlight.

⏬ VLCC Market: U.S. Silence, MEG Stirrings

VLCC rates edged up slightly, with MEG to China (TD3C) at WS 58.55 ($39,305/day round-trip TCE) and West Africa to China (TD15) at WS 59.63 ($41,173/day TCE).

U.S. Gulf to China (TD22) held at $7.292M ($35,834/day TCE), but spot activity there turned eerily quiet—rates dipped to $35,700/day, a 13.1% weekly drop—as Chinese buyers pause amid Trump’s tariff flux.

Activity picked up late week in the MEG, with 25-31 March cargoes overlapping early April stems, leveling rates as owners resist further downside.

Atlantic tonnage thinned as Brazil and West Africa absorbed ships ballasting from the East, yet U.S. Gulf softness persists—Chinese buyers favor Panama and Canada.

Sanctions hit six VLCCs, including the 300,000-dwt Itaugua, scuppering its recycling deal in Bangladesh.

A Ukraine-Russia ceasefire could flood markets with Russian oil, easing pressure on Iran’s 1.8M bpd exports—VLCCs might see shifts if U.S. “maximum pressure” intensifies.

Investors could find stability in MEG gains, but U.S. uncertainty looms large.

Week 10 of 2025 delivers a tanker market of contrasts. VLCCs remain flat with balanced tonnage, while Suezmax tightens and lifts rates in Europe and West Africa. Aframax softens under weak demand, as clean tankers—MRs and LRs—display regional divergence: LR2s recover in the East, but MRs face pressure in the West. Geopolitical risks escalate with U.S. tariff threats, potential Iranian interdictions, and Canada’s export surge, impacting $6.7bn of U.S.-listed tonnage. Investors eyeing shipping or oil markets face a blend of stability, opportunity, and uncertainty.

This update spans VLCC, Suezmax, Aframax, MR, and LR trends, plus key external drivers. From rate shifts to regulatory clouds, here’s the latest—volatility remains a fixture.

⏬ VLCC Market: Steady with Latent Potential

VLCCs stayed level this week, with MEG to China (TD3C) at WS* 57.10 ($38,342/day round-trip TCE, up $1,000 w-o-w) and West Africa to China (TD15) at WS 58.50 ($40,633/day TCE). U.S. Gulf to China (TD22) plunged $767,500 to $7.28M ($36,497/day TCE), reflecting a $4,700/day drop. MEG/East rates held at WS 57 for modern ships—older units saw discounts—while West Africa activity rose above WS 60, bolstering owner sentiment despite weak U.S. Gulf exports. Breakwave Advisors flags tight dark fleet supply, with Iran’s February loadings down 37% m-o-m due to “clean” STS vessel shortages and Shandong bans. China’s refining strength (gasoil at historical norms, gasoline two-thirds above) contrasts Brent’s 2021 low—OPEC+ cuts easing and Russia sanction talks could lift VLCCs. Investors might note this stability, with geopolitical shifts as a wildcard.

The tanker market as of late February 2025 is a study in contrasts. VLCC rates oscillate between tight supply and softening sentiment, driven by geopolitical shifts and a wave of new regulations. Meanwhile, Suezmax and Aframax segments wrestle with oversupply and muted activity, though glimmers of demand—like Sudan’s resumed Dar Blend exports—offer some counterbalance. New U.S. port fees targeting Chinese tonnage, sanctions on Iran and Russia, and Trump’s Venezuela policy shift are reshaping the landscape. Oil demand wavers, adding another layer of complexity for shipping investors.

This update dives into the latest across VLCC, Suezmax, and Aframax markets, alongside regulatory and oil market trends. For those tracking shipping stocks or oil-related investments, the mix of risks and opportunities here is worth dissecting. Volatility is the name of the game—let’s break it down.

⏬ VLCC Market: Volatility Holds Firm

VLCCs East of Suez show rates in the high WS 50s to China, a level reflecting recent ups and downs. The market’s been quiet this week with IE Week in London slowing activity, but modern tonnage remains scarce, hinting at potential rate gains once schedules clear. In the Atlantic, it’s a different story—tonnage lists are growing, and a lack of U.S. Gulf business has nudged Brazil-Far East rates down to WS 57.25 as the last done deal. Geopolitical ripples add spice: China’s rebounding imports of sanctioned Russian and Iranian crude are fueling demand for older, unsanctioned VLCCs from the shadow fleet. Yet, U.S. sanctions just hit 5 VLCCs (average age ~19 years), part of an 11% capacity squeeze, while the EU and UK blacklist 153 shadow fleet vessels. This tightens supply for non-compliant routes, particularly Middle East to Asia, but softening Western sentiment and expanding tonnage could cap gains. Investors might note the thin balance here—tightness in the East versus oversupply risks in the West.

The tanker market remains highly dynamic as geopolitical tensions, tightening sanctions, and shifting trade flows reshape vessel demand. VLCC rates have softened, dropping 20% on key Middle East routes, while Suezmax and Aframax segments are holding firm amid tightening tonnage. Meanwhile, new U.S. sanctions on Russian crude trade are forcing Indian refiners to restructure supply chains, and geopolitical tensions in the Baltic are escalating over potential vessel seizures.

With a mix of short-term bearish rate movements and bullish long-term projections, market players are closely watching fleet supply constraints, trade policy shifts, and evolving crude flows to anticipate the next move.

💡 VLCC Rates Under Pressure Despite Tightening Fleet

The VLCC market has come under significant pressure, with rates on MEG/Vietnam slipping to WS 55* and MEG/Korea at WS 54.25*—a sharp 20% drop. The February MEG program remains behind schedule, and with an increasing tonnage list in the Atlantic, charterers remain in control.

Despite the short-term weakness, investment bank Jefferies remains bullish, increasing VLCC price targets and forecasting:

📈 $55,000/day in 2025 (previously $50,000)

📈 $65,000/day in 2026 (previously $57,500)

A key driver of this long-term optimism is the growing impact of U.S. sanctions. The sanctioned VLCC fleet now represents 10% of total tonnage, with potential to reach 15% if further restrictions are imposed. With VLCC utilization rising from 83% to 88%, Jefferies suggests this could climb to 94%, tightening supply and supporting rates.

However, uncertainty looms as the U.S. crude inventory build continues, and a Trump-Putin dialogue on Ukraine has raised ceasefire speculation, leading to a 2.7% drop in WTI crude.

As February unfolds, the tanker market is heating up, driven by tightening supply, geopolitical shifts, and a surprising resurgence in VLCC rates. The US crackdown on Iran and the shadow fleet, combined with growing crude exports from the US, Guyana, and Brazil, is stretching mainstream vessel availability. Meanwhile, tanker stocks are rallying as investors anticipate a prolonged upcycle.

📈 VLCCs: Rates Surge as Supply Tightens

VLCC rates saw a surprising rebound this week despite the Lunar New Year lull. Allied reports that time-charter equivalent (TCE) earnings have jumped above last year’s levels, signaling strong demand.

The Middle East Gulf/China route has firmed to the low WS 70s* ( See explanation at end of the post ) , with sentiment pointing to further upside. Owners are in no rush to fix, as the supply of available vessels remains under pressure. Hunter Group estimates that an additional 156 VLCCs could be needed by 2026 to accommodate rising demand, yet only 28 are scheduled for delivery over the next two years.

With more cargoes set to emerge and February being a short month, some profit-taking is expected, but the fundamental tightness in the market remains