As every Sunday, the most important dates for the coming week, as well as the news from the previous week:
https://youtube.com/shorts/LCtGzWj4KH0?si=bls3WjLboepjLkFI
Monday:
The Chinese real estate group $3333 Evergrande is to be liquidated following a ruling in Hong Kong. However, it is still completely unclear whether the judgment will also be enforced in China. Evergrande itself is based in the Cayman Islands, is listed on the Hong Kong stock exchange and owns most of the properties in China. The markets in Asia are also unimpressed and are even rising slightly.
Evergrande is the second largest real estate group in China and has USD 300 billion in debt. China has already announced a number of measures in recent days to support the plummeting stock markets. These include a ban on short selling (lending) of certain shares.
$BAYN (+3,44%) Bayer was again sentenced by a US court to pay record damages. USD 2.25 billion is the amount Bayer is ordered to pay to a plaintiff. The share price collapses. In our view, the verdict is not really surprising. The issue is annoying, but 2/3 of the more than 150,000 lawsuits were settled out of court. Bayer has won 10 of the last 16 lawsuits. This time, too, the judgment is not final; it will go to the second instance and, from Bayer's point of view, is likely to either be overturned or be significantly milder. A large second wave of lawsuits is also unlikely, as hundreds of thousands of cancer sufferers who also use glyphosate cannot have been added to the list.
We have therefore made another private purchase in Bayer. The share is close to its 18-year low. We are continuing to hold the share in our value portfolio as the situation has not changed.
Wednesday:
The inflation data turned out better than expected. In Germany, inflation fell to 2.9% in January. The expectation was 3.0%. For 2024 as a whole, economists only expect inflation of 2.2%.
The first central bankers are optimistic that they have successfully combated inflation. The first interest rate cut is likely to take place in the summer.
The Fed is preparing to cut interest rates, which is a new signal and should show that the path to a turnaround in interest rates has been initiated. The US Federal Reserve is leaving the key interest rates themselves at the current level of 5.25 - 5.5 %.
The markets are already expecting a rate cut in the coming months, but the initial reaction is rather disappointed due to the high expectations.
Thursday:
According to the Caixin Production Index, production in China 🇨🇳 increased for the third month in a row.
However, the data contradicts the official data from the Chinese government. The official PMI shows a decline for the fourth month in a row.
This shows that the economic data from China should continue to be treated with caution. The second version naturally fits better with the aid packages adopted by the Chinese government.
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2024/02/01/caixin-pmi-chinas-factory-activity-expanded-in-january.html
$MBG (-2,54%) Mercedes Benz delivers a free cash flow of 11.3 billion euros in FY 2023, significantly exceeding expectations of 9.9 billion euros.
FCF is the most important key figure in company valuation. As a result, the share price continued to rise after the close of trading.
Our value stock $EOAN (-2,35%) e.on delivers figures above expectations. Adjusted profit rose to EUR 3.1 billion, while EUR 200 million less was expected.
e.on is benefiting from a conservative forecast. E.on is currently the second-largest position in our value portfolio and is likely to increase its dividend again. The pure share price performance since purchase is also impressive.
And another special feature, $META (+3,24%) Meta declares its first dividend of USD 0.50 per share per quarter. Profit rose to 14 billion dollars in Q4, despite heavy investment in virtual reality.
Friday:
Surprisingly strong jobs data from the US dampens the mood for the time being, as this makes a rate cut unlikely for the time being. Twice as many new jobs were created as expected.
The three most important dates for the coming week:
Monday: 11:00 Retail sales 🇪🇺
Tuesday: 4:30 Interest rate decision 🇦🇺
Friday: 16:00 Consumer confidence 🇺🇸