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Amazon—Should I start selling now?

I actually have everything in $VWRL (-0,37 %) and just a few individual stocks. Among them are a couple of speculative ones that could generate excess returns and are also a lot of fun.

These include, among others: $NBIS (-0,91 %)
$IREN (-2,93 %)
$PNG (-2,95 %)
$SOFI (-1,16 %) but also $GOOGL (-0,17 %) and $ASML (-1,61 %) and, of course, a $AMZN (+0,14 %) Amazon.

Does this really make sense, or is it just a concentration risk? After all, I already have Amazon in the ETF. I think about 2.5% of my total portfolio is in Amazon. Given the proportions, selling it probably wouldn’t even be noticeable.

What do you think?

Specifically, the Amazon position consists of twelve shares and, thanks to an average purchase price of 183 €, is up about 13.5%.

I have around 300 shares in the global ETF.

8 Commentaires

Raketentoni@Raketentoni

Hey @capital_genius_sjbva,

A classic case of portfolio hygiene! You need to ask yourself, with a cool head, what role the Amazon shares are actually supposed to play in your portfolio.

You’re basically running a clean core-satellite strategy. The $VWRL is your massive core (congrats on the 300 shares—that’s a really strong foundation!). The individual stocks are your satellites—and with $IREN (which I also have in my portfolio as a crypto play, by the way!) or $SOFI, you’ve got a couple of solid outperformance candidates there.

If you now hold $AMZN as a single stock alongside the global ETF, you’re deliberately building up an overweight position. This isn’t a dangerous “concentration risk,” but an active bet that Amazon will outperform the overall market in the coming years.

So keep it simple:

Do you believe in the excess return? Then let those 12 shares ride it out stoically. The 13.5% gain is a nice cushion—just ride the momentum and let compound interest do its thing.

Don’t have that clear conviction? Then take the money (which should be roughly 2,400 euros) off the table without a second thought. Sell the stock and either casually put the capital back into the global ETF or use it as ammunition for your real speculative plays, where the potential for multiplying your investment is higher than with a 2-trillion-behemoth like Amazon.

Half-measures aren’t fun in your portfolio in the long run. Either be fully convinced or get rid of it!

Best regards,
Raketentoni 🚀

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capital_captain_2693@capital_captain_2693

@Raketentoni What does your Mr. Prompt generally think of Amazon?

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Raketentoni@Raketentoni

@capital_captain_2693
Hey,

"Mr. Prompt" (my data center) has a very cold and completely emotionless take on the 2-trillion-dollar behemoth.

Let’s keep it short and sweet without getting bogged down in lengthy analyses: Amazon is an absolute moat monster, but you have to know exactly which side of the barbell to place it on.

**1. For the cash flow fundamentals (the A-side):**

It falls mercilessly through the cracks. Zero dividends and massive CapEx (capital expenditures) for global AI and data center expansion. That eats up a massive amount of money and pushes the free cash flow yield for us investors below the magic 5% mark. Anyone looking for steady monthly or quarterly returns in their account is in completely the wrong place here.

**2. For the growth engine (the B side):**

A brutally strong core business. The AWS cloud division is an absolute margin machine that prints money and perfectly offsets the slightly weaker margins from the pure e-commerce volume business. The core quality—combining revenue growth and operating margin—is exceptionally strong for a giant of this size.

**Technical Analysis:**

A dream for stoic investors. The chart moves along completely calmly. The RSI consistently settles back to healthy levels after breakouts, and the price moves with extreme reliability along the solid support lines of the fast 50-period EMA and the long-term 200-period EMA.

**The cold, hard conclusion:**

Anyone looking for real dividends should steer clear of this stock. Anyone looking for a massive, almost crisis-proof haven on the growth side—one that outperforms the market over the long term—should add these shares to their portfolio and lock them away for the next 10 years.

Greetings from the engine room! 🚀

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capital_captain_2693@capital_captain_2693

@Raketentoni Are you invested?

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Raketentoni@Raketentoni

@capital_captain_2693 Only through the ACWI—I sold my Amazon position last year

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capital_captain_2693@capital_captain_2693

@Raketentoni wieso?

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Raketentoni@Raketentoni

@capital_captain_2693 Because I don't invest in any stocks that I hold in my portfolio via an ETF :)

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Christian@value_seeker_1555

@Raketentoni Great post! Amazon has a broad presence, and I'm betting on strong growth for the company.

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