13H·

The myth of the unassailable safe haven 🤭🤭😂😂

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Gold and silver are often presented as if they were:


  • immune to interest rates
  • independent of monetary policy
  • free from sentiment



In practice, they react:


  • sensitive to real interest rates
  • brutally to dollar strength
  • and just as emotional as everything else



The difference: with precious metals, volatility is simply called "patience".


"Gold is stable in value"


Yes, in the very long term.

A savings book was also nominally stable for decades - but unfortunately worthless in real terms.


If you buy gold, you buy:


  • no cash flow
  • no growth
  • no innovation



But the hope that someone else will buy it later at a higher price.

That's not an accusation - it's simply the model.


Silver - the eternal little brother


Silver is at the same time:


  • Store of value
  • industrial metal
  • economic indicator



A bit of everything - but nothing really.

When it rises, it is "the new gold".

When it falls, it was suddenly "cyclical anyway".


Very convenient.


And then there's Bitcoin


Not a metal. No myth. No storage costs.

No opening hours. No central storage. No arbitrary expansion.


A firmly defined range.

An open, verifiable system.

An asset that nobody controls and everyone can check.


But of course: far too risky.


It's interesting how often "security" is confused with "familiarity".


Conclusion


Gold and silver have their role.

What they are not: infallible, without alternative or morally superior.


Anyone who pretended last week that there was only one truth,

is learning once again that markets know no dogmas.


Perhaps the fault lies not in the asset -

but in the need to always want to be right.

$4GLD (-6,48 %)
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$BTC (-7,26 %)
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$3350 (+0 %)
#bitcoin
#silver
#gold

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15 Commentaires

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The retail hype that Bitcoin has experienced in recent cycles has obviously been reflected in gold and silver in this cycle. I didn't have that on my radar either😂 So it's not surprising that gold and silver would correct more sharply and the leverage and speculators would be flushed out of the market.
The silver chart in particular looks like a shitcoin rug pull🤣

I'm curious to see how things will continue and whether there will also be a small rotation in Bitcoin😅
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@stefan_21 I see the retail hype in a similar way. The difference for me is that Bitcoin always survives these phases and emerges stronger. With gold and silver, the leverage circus is new, with Bitcoin it's more part of the game.
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@KoenigsRasse Gold and silver will also inevitably recover. That's the nature of hard money, which is measured in fiat :D
However, the cycles for gold and silver have always been much longer (~10 years). So if that really was the top, it could now be a few years more boring again :)
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@stefan_21 With Trump on board, the gold price can reach a new high every day, unfortunately.
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@wealth_builder_568 and be sold again😆
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@stefan_21 I take a relaxed view of the whole thing, my gold position (physical and ETC) is around 5% of my portfolio! But this extreme up and down in precious metals is actually new! Who knows, Trump might make gold and silver the new Bitcoin in terms of volatility 😂
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But gold and Bitcoin have one thing in common. With both, there is only the hope that you will later find someone who is willing to pay more for it than you are.
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@Multibagger In essence, this applies to almost any asset without cash flow - including shares, art or real estate. The difference lies more in acceptance, liquidity and history than in the principle itself.

Incidentally, gold is not strictly limited, but is only scarce in terms of production. The supply is growing continuously. Bitcoin, on the other hand, is strictly limited - which makes the comparison more interesting, not easier.
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@KoenigsRasse which brings us to the main difference. The acceptance! This is much higher for gold among the masses.
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And with gold and silver, there is at least the precious metal as such.
With Bitcoin and the like, it's nothing but 1s and 0s
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@Steven83 I would say: contemporary. Welcome to the new world.
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@Steven83 Gold has material value, yes. But our current monetary system does not. Book money, cards, bank transfers - all numbers in databases. Bitcoin is less different than many people think.
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I would have attributed what happened to silver this week to a cryptocurrency. 🙈
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It is clear that a multi-asset portfolio simply needs both.
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On the whole, the observations are correct, but I would not subscribe to the statement that these precious metals can be expanded at will. The natural resources of these materials on earth are ultimately limited.

I think it is fair to say that gold and silver have performed above average recently due to the uncertainties in global politics - perhaps too well. This has led speculators to jump on the bandwagon, which in turn has led to the slump we have seen.

We are currently seeing weakness in Bitcoin, perhaps also because investor interest has shifted somewhat - towards AI, armaments, gold, etc. - but this will certainly change again in the medium term.
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