When people talk about future technologies or next-gen technologies, the first thing that comes to mind is startups. In my research, however, I keep coming across companies that have been around for more than 100 years!

A few examples from my portfolio:

• Prysmian (1879)
$PRY (-7,43 %)

Electric highways, high-voltage cables, and grid infrastructure for electrification.

• Furukawa Electric (1884)
$5801 (-11,32 %)

Fiber optics, optical networks, and data transmission.

• Sumitomo Electric (1897)
$5802 (-5,78 %)

Photonics, specialty materials, and components for modern communication networks.

• Carpenter Technology (1910) $CRS (-20,5 %)

Specialty alloys for aerospace, semiconductor manufacturing, and high-performance systems.

• Hammond Power Solutions (1917)
$HPS.A (-6,35 %)

Transformers for data centers, industry, and power grids.

• Comfort Systems USA (1917)
$FIX (-16,39 %)

Cooling, building services, and infrastructure for modern data centers.

The more I delve into AI, energy, photonics, or data centers, the more often I come across companies like these.

New technologies can emerge within just a few years. The industrial infrastructure behind them often takes decades to develop.

That is precisely why it’s not just the companies making headlines that benefit from technological upheavals. Often, those who have been laying the groundwork for generations also benefit.

Another example is Caterpillar $CAT (-4,9 %). The company was founded as early as 1925 and today supplies, among other things, the emergency power systems that play a key role in many data center projects.

#dibs
#scalelimits
#wikifolio

The original Maritime thesis remains valid. Seabed awareness and autonomous underwater systems continue to be major technological bottlenecks. Nevertheless, I have revised the DIBS framework.

The reason: “Maritime” was ultimately too narrow a focus. Many of the underlying developments revolve less around shipping than around technological resilience—the ability of nations and companies to protect critical infrastructure, detect threats early, and develop new defense technologies.

Maritime is therefore becoming Defense.

The Defense cluster comprises four areas:

1️⃣ Defense Materials

Modern defense starts with materials. Special alloys, high-performance metals, and critical materials determine what can be built at all.

• Carpenter Technologies $CRS (-20,5 %) – Special alloys for aerospace and defense

• 5N Plus $VNP (-6,74 %) – Critical specialty materials for sensor technology and defense applications

2️⃣ Precision Systems

Precision is becoming the bottleneck. Control systems, specialty electronics, and high-precision components determine the performance of entire systems.

• Moog $MOG.A (-6,79 %) – Flight control and motion control systems

• Vishay Precision Group $VPG – Precision sensors and measurement technology

3️⃣ Defense Autonomy & Awareness

Detecting threats early and responding autonomously. This is precisely where new requirements arise.

• Kraken Robotics $PNG (-3,91 %) – Underwater reconnaissance and maritime sensors

• Exail Technologies $EXA (+0,16 %) – Autonomous systems and navigation technologies

4️⃣ Emerging Defense Technologies

The most speculative level of the cluster. This involves technologies that could fundamentally transform future defense—from high-power lasers and precise timing to quantum sensing.

• nLight $LASR – High-power lasers and directed energy

• Frequency Electronics $FEIM (-5,71 %) – Timing and synchronization systems for aerospace and defense

• Infleqtion $INFQ – Quantum Sensing and Quantum Technologies

DIBS is not meant to be a static map. My conceptual framework continues to evolve as technological bottlenecks become clearer or can be better structured. The central question, however, remains the same: Where will the critical bottlenecks of the future arise, and which companies occupy the decisive positions in the value chain?

The stocks listed in the table are only a selection. I hold nearly all of them in my own portfolio, and many are also in my three bottleneck wikifolios: NextLimits, TechLimits, and CoreLimits.

I think the DIBS board has now reached a stable state in terms of its structure for the long term. Unless, of course, I come up with something else over the weekend 😁

#dibs
#wikifolio
#scalelimits

Hello my dears,

The US market seems to be calming down a little today.

That's why I'd like to quickly introduce you to a great company that some of you may not yet have on your radar.

How many of you already know the company?

And of course your opinion on the company is once again very important to me. That's why I'm hoping for lots of comments.

$CRS (-20,5 %)

Carpenter Technology is clearly a niche champion. The company dominates highly specialized alloys for extremely demanding applications, particularly in aerospace, defense and medical technology. These markets are small but highly profitable and require precisely the materials expertise in which Carpenter is a leader.

Highly specialized product range

• Focus on high-performance specialty alloys: nickel, titanium, stainless steel and magnetic specialty alloys.
• Used in areas where material failure is not an option (turbines, rockets, implants).
• Proprietary alloys and manufacturing processes create technological barriers to entry

Strong foothold in niche markets

• Main customers: Aerospace & Defense, medical technology, energy, industry.
• These segments are not only highly regulated, but also require customized solutions that only a few suppliers can provide.

Market position: small, but strategically extremely relevant

• Carpenter is not a mass metal producer, but a "foundational player" in the high-performance segment.
• Turnover 2024: approx. USD 2.8 billion - small compared to giants such as Allegheny or Haynes, but very strong in the niche.

Growth driver in exactly the right niches

• Aerospace is experiencing structural growth (fleet modernization, defense budgets).
• Electrification & e-motors benefit from Carpenter's Soft Magnetic Alloys.
• Additive manufacturing (3D printing) is increasingly becoming a differentiating factor.

CONCLUSION

Carpenter is not a broad metal stock, but a premium supplier for critical high-tech applications. It is precisely this position that makes the company a niche champion - with structural tailwinds, high barriers to entry and strong pricing power.

Carpenter Technology has in-depth metallurgical expertise

Carpenter Technology was founded in 1889 and currently has a market capitalization of USD 16.7 billion and a diversified end market. The company is organized into two segments, Specialty Alloys Operations or "SAO" and Performance Engineered Products or "PEP". SAO focuses on the production of high-quality alloys and stainless steel products, while PEP includes titanium products, materials for additive manufacturing and distribution networks. 90% of sales are generated in SAO, with PEP accounting for the remaining 10%.

The company has several end markets with different application areas:

• Aerospace & Defense with applications in jet engine components and fuselage parts.
• Energy with applications in turbines and the oil and gas industry.
• Medical with applications in implants and surgical instruments.
• Transportation with applications in valves, fasteners and electric vehicle motor alloys
• Industrial and consumer sectors with applications in niche specialty parts.

The opportunities and risks of Carpenter Technology

The main growth driver for Carpenter appears to be in the aerospace and defense markets. We are currently experiencing high demand for maintenance, repair and overhaul, which is also driving demand for alloys, metals and parts, and we are also seeing increasing production rates, which is driving demand for aircraft engines and engine materials. In addition, the increase in defense budgets will also increase material demand for defense systems. Furthermore, I believe that additive manufacturing offers a tiny growth opportunity, as supportive manufacturing and metal powder technologies are well suited to the production of more complex components.

We are also seeing healthcare demand grow and drive demand for specialty alloys, while electrification and energy demand are driving demand for turbine and engine alloys.

Materials that move markets

Carpenter Technology is a global leader in high-performance and specialty alloy materials and process solutions for critical applications in aerospace, defense, medical, energy and other high-value markets

Markets

• Aerospace

Superior materials for engines, landing gear, precision components and additive metal powder manufacturing.

• Transportation

Diverse specialty alloys for high-pressure fuel systems, engines, exhaust systems, oxygen sensors and other components.

• Consumer

Specialty alloys for durable and non-durable consumer products from consumer electronics to sporting goods.

• Defense

Advanced specialty materials for smaller, lighter and more durable components used in mission-critical applications.

• Energy

High performance alloys and powders for power generation, renewable energy and oil and gas drilling and completion applications.

• Industrial

Corrosion, heat and pressure resistant specialty alloys and stainless steel for valves, fittings and fasteners.

• Medical Medical

Titanium, stainless steel and special alloys for surgical instruments, medical devices, prostheses and orthopaedics.

Carpenter Technology: Why the growth of the aerospace and defense industry makes this a strong buy

Jan. 26, 2026,

Executive Summary

• Carpenter Technology starts with a strong buy valuation, driven by strong demand for aerospace and defense sectors and improved operating leverage.
• CRS is expected to deliver 7% annual revenue growth and nearly 20% EBITDA growth from 2025 to 2028, with margins increasing from 23.1% to 32%.
• Despite trading at a premium of 24.6x EV/EBITDA, CRS' integration into aerospace and defense justifies a valuation in line with industry peers.
• Feasible run rates and the potential for increased share buybacks support the investment case, with a base price target of $393.21 (17% upside).

PowerPoint Presentation

Investoren-Update – Carpenter Technology Corporation

In the last fiscal year, Carpenter Technology Corp. sales increased 4.3% from USD 2.8 billion to USD 2.9 billion. The profit from USD 186.5 million to USD 376.0 million by 101,6%. The net profit margin was thus 13.1% compared to 6.8% in the previous year. On January 29, 2026, Carpenter Technology Corp. reported its Q3 figures for the quarter ending December 31, 2025. Revenue in the earnings period amounted to USD 728.0 million (+7.5% compared to the same quarter of the previous year) and profit was USD 105.3 million (+25.2% compared to the same quarter of the previous year).

USD in millions

Estimates

Year Turnover Change

2024 2.760 8,21 %

2025 2.877 4,25 %

2026 3.094 7,55 %

2027 3.429 10,82 %

2028 3.659 6,71 %

Year EBIT Change

2024 354,1 166,04 %

2025 525,4 48,38 %

2026 688,9 31,12 %

2027 820,8 19,14 %

2028 931,6 13,5 %

Year Net result Change

2024 186,5 230,67 %

2025 376 101,61 %

2026 636,4 36,18 %

2027 771,9 21,3 %

2028 893,6 15,77 %

Year Net debt CAPEX

2024 495 96,6

2025 380 154,3

2026 325 309,7

2027 134 318,3

2028 -172 160

Year Free cash flow Change

2024 178,3 363,76 %

2025 286,1 60,46 %

2026 284,1 -0,69 %

2027 396,1 39,57 %

2028 346 -12,75 %

Year EBIT margin ROE

2024 12,83 % 12,33 %

2025 18,26 % 21,39 %

2026 22,26 % 24,86 %

2027 23,93 % 24,17 %

2028 25,46 % 23,34 %

@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin that's a nice margin increase

Year Earnings per share Change

2024 3,7 224,56 %

2025 7,42 100,54 %

2026 10,08 35,87 %

2027 12,07 19,69 %

2028 13,92 15,34 %

Year Dividend Yield

2024 0,8 0,73 %

2025 0,8 0,29 %

2026 0,83 0,24 %

2027 0,873 0,25 %

2028 1,041 0,3 %

Year P/E ratio PEG

2024 29.6x 0x

2025 37.2x 0x

2026 34.6x 1x

2027 28.9x 1.5x

2028 25.1x 1.6x

Market value 17,366

Number of shares (in thousands) 49,810

Date of publication 31.07.2025

Looking at the key metrics for Carpenter Technology, we see that the increasing EBITDA growth is driven by a combination of revenue growth and margin growth. Margins are expected to increase from 23.1% in 2025 to 32% by 2028. For 2028, we see a weakening of the cash conversion ratio and cash flows. I believe this could be caused by higher working capital requirements as many aircraft programs should finally reach their targeted production rates, which could lead to higher working capital requirements and higher inventory build-up to mitigate delivery risk. However, if managed well, I believe cash conversion for 2028 could be >40%, which would provide additional cash flows beyond what is currently modeled. In terms of cash and debt, we note that the company has a very manageable debt profile. There is $400m in bonds maturing in FY29, followed by $300m in bonds maturing the following year. The company can pay this back from cash, which I expect to be $860 million by the end of FY28. In terms of net debt leverage, we note that the company is operating well below my 2x to 2.5 net debt range for aerospace and defense companies.

This means that Carpenter Technologies should definitely have room to refinance debt and potentially increase share repurchases above the $400 million gross volume modeled under the share repurchase program.

Conclusion: Carpenter Technologies starts with a strong buy valuation

The company will benefit from increasing demand for specialty alloys for aerospace and defense applications, industrial turbine applications in other markets, and growing demand for healthcare, which is also driving demand for materials such as titanium alloys. The company therefore has strong growth prospects, which will also increase margins, already returning value to shareholders, while metals and alloys are playing an increasingly important role in many markets.

Performance

1 week +12.33 %

1 month +2.38 %

6 months +35.17 %

1 year +80.92 %

3 years +584.30 %

5 years + 960.05 %

7 years +666.94 %

10 years +1,135.91 %

$CRS. @Klein-Anleger