Thermo Fisher Action Forum

Earnings next week 🗓️

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Depot review September 2024 - The first green September in my depot since 2019 📈

September is generally regarded as the worst month on the stock market, with a negative monthly performance more than 50% of the time. This is also consistent with my experience since 2013. In 11 years, it has been negative 6 times and positive 5 times. From 2020 to 2023, the last 4 years were all negative. However, September 2024 is now the first positive September since 2019, which means it is exactly 50/50 for me - 6 positive and 6 negative Septembers since 2013.

The Fed's interest rate turnaround and the stimulus in China have certainly contributed to the positive trend

Monthly view:

In total, September was +1,2%. This corresponds to price gains of ~3.600€.

The MSCI World (benchmark) was +1.0% and the S&P500 +1.3%

Winners & losers:

A look at the winners and losers is particularly exciting this month.

On the winning side at the very top are my China ETF with € +1,300 and is thus back in the green for the first time in a long time. The following winners are also a colorful mix with Meta, Bitcoin, Home Depot and Sea. Really a very broad mix with no clear tendency towards regions, sectors or the like

On the loser side in my portfolio in September were mainly pharmaceutical stocks. Novo Nordisk, Amgen and Johnson & Johnson. Even worse, with price losses of ~€700 each, were only Palo Alto Networks and ASML.

The performance-neutral movements in September were just under €4,500. The premium refund from my private health insurance also played a large part in this. In September, I received over €2,000 back for the year 2023, which was of course invested directly to compensate for any higher pension contributions.

Current year:

My performance in the current year is +20,4% and thus above my benchmark, the MSCI World with 17.2%.

In total, my portfolio currently stands at ~321.000€. This corresponds to an absolute growth of ~€69,000 in the current year 2023. ~49.000€ of this comes from price increases, ~2.800€ from dividends / interest and ~17.000€ from additional investments.

Dividend:

• Dividends in September were 23% above the previous year at ~€360
• Amgen is in the lead with a (gross) dividend of €50 every 3 months. But Johnson & Johnson with €45 is also a delight
• In the current year, the dividends after 9 months are +25% over the first 9 months of 2023 at ~2.210€

Buys & sells:

• I bought in September for approx. 3,500€. 2,100 of this came from the premium refund from my private health insurance and went into the WisdomTree Global Quality Dividend Growth
• As always, my savings plans were executed:
• Blue ChipsLockheed Martin $LMT (-0,88 %) Republic Services $RSG (+1,73 %) Thermo Fisher $TMO (+0,74 %) ASML $ASML (+0,71 %) MasterCard $MA (-0,48 %) Deere $DE (-0,47 %) Northrop Grumman $NOC (-2,33 %) Itochu $8001 (+0,18 %) Salesforce $CRM (+1,01 %) Hermes $RMS (-0,04 %) Constellation Software $CSU (+2,4 %)
• 
  Growth: -
• ETFsMSCI World $XDWD (+0,53 %) Nikkei 225 $XDJP (-0,93 %) and the WisdomTree Global Quality Dividend Growth $GGRP (+0,23 %)
• 
  Crypto: Bitcoin $BTC (+0,09 %) and Ethereum $ETH (+1,39 %)
• 
  Sales there were none in September

Target 2024:

My goal for this year is to reach €300,000 in my portfolio. Due to the extremely positive market development in the current year, my portfolio currently stands at ~€321,000.

At the beginning of September, my portfolio was still quite a bit lower at €304,000 due to the weak start to the month. At this point, it was therefore quite a way off the previous high of €320,000 in June.

I have now reached a new high of €321,000 and am optimistic that I can still beat my year-end target of €300,000.

#dividends

#dividende

#rückblick

#depotupdate

#aktie

#stocks

#etfs

#crypto

#personalstrategy

ThermoFisher laboratory supplier, the ASML of the healthcare industry?

Thermo Fisher Scientific is a leader in life science technology, offering a wide range of products and services for research, diagnostics and manufacturing in healthcare, life sciences and other industries. The company has a strong market position and continues to grow.

These include instruments, consumables, reagents, software and services for research, diagnostics and production in healthcare, life sciences and other industries. The company offers solutions for the analysis of DNA, RNA, proteins, cells, drugs, etc.

Thermo Fisher is known for its high-quality products and its commitment to advancing scientific discovery and progress. In 2023, research and development spending amounted to $1.5 billion, approximately 3.2% of annual sales.

Virtually every laboratory works with Thermo Fisher products. Its customer base includes over 400,000 laboratories, ranging from small research institutions to large pharmaceutical companies.

Thermo Fisher Scientific brands include Thermo Scientific, Applied Biosystems, Invitrogen, Fisher Scientific and Unity Lab Services.

Market capitalization: ~€200 billion

Sales: $43 billion /2023

P/E RATIO: 36

Dividend yield: 0.252% Quarterly dividend growth: 10% over 10 years

Sales by region:

53% USA

25% Europe

18% Asia-Pacific

Employees: <100,000

Return 20 years: 1,837.83%

Future opportunities:

- Continuous sales and growth

- Healthcare industry trend: ThermoFisher is well positioned and will benefit from new technologies [e.g. AI-supported data analysis]

- Innovation leader: Investments in research and development strengthen and maintain ThermoFisher's market position

- Global demand, highly diversified product range

What do you think about Thermo Fisher?

I have a long-term holding in the portfolio myself. TF is the market leader and cannot be overtaken or replaced so quickly. When it comes to healthcare research, TF is directly and indirectly involved. People are becoming more numerous, older and sicker. This means that growth will not slow down for the time being.

https://ir.thermofisher.com/investors/overview/default.aspx

#thermofisher
$TMO (+0,74 %)
#gesundheitsbranche

Depot review March 2024 - And on, and on, and on,...

March picks up where February left off. And before that, January, December, November,...

In total, March was +2,9%! This was less than in January and February and was mainly driven by the first half of March. In total, this corresponded to price gains of ~8.000€.

Winners & losers:

On the winners' side is getting really boring. In 1st place, of course: NVIDIA
$NVDA (-0,57 %) with share price gains of ~€2,100. 2nd place goes to Alphabet
$GOOG (-0,99 %) with €1,000. But also Bitcoin $BTC (+0,09 %) also showed a strong performance with price gains of €800. The top 5 is then rounded off by two securities that I would rarely expect to see in the top 5: The MSCI World ETF $XDWD (+0,53 %) and the German Bank $DBK (-1,86 %)

On the losers' side there is a lot of tech. With Palo Alto Networks $PANW (+1,63 %) and MercadoLibre $MELI (-1,76 %)

two high growth tech stocks that were already at the bottom in February.
In addition Apple $AAPL (+1,15 %)
Nike $NKE (+0,62 %)

and Starbucks $SBUX (+1,63 %) were weaker.

The performance-neutral movements in March amounted to € 1,300. As in January and February, a larger proportion is currently being spent on private expenses. Nevertheless, I was able to invest significantly more net in March than in January and February. I bought just over €2,000 in March. However, the net figure for the pure securities portfolio is a minus, as I sold my Encavis
$ECV (-0,82 %) shares after the takeover offer from KKR. As a result, ~€2,600 flowed out of my securities account, which is now in the clearing account for 4%.

My performance for the current year is +14,7% and thus well above my benchmark, the MSCI World with 11.2%.

In total, my portfolio currently stands at ~291.000€. This corresponds to an absolute growth of ~€39,000 in the current year 2023. ~36.000€ of this comes from price gains, ~720€ from dividends / interest and ~2.000€ from additional investments.

Dividend:

• Dividends in March were +30% above the previous year at ~€350
• In the current year, the dividends after 3 months are also +30% over the first three months of 2023 at ~630€.
• In March, there was also a dividend for the first time from Meta $META (-0,09 %)
  

Buys & Sells:

• I bought in March for approx. 2.000€
• Of which 500€ each in Hermes $RMS (-0,04 %) and Constellation Software $CSU (+2,4 %) as a first purchase
• In addition, the first few euros saveback from the Trade Republic card were also invested
• As always, my savings plans were executed:
• Blue ChipsNorthrop Grumman $NOC (-2,33 %) MasterCard $MA (-0,48 %) Salesforce $CRM (+1,01 %) Deere $DE (-0,47 %) Lockheed Martin $LMT (-0,88 %) ASML $ASML (+0,71 %) Thermo Fisher $TMO (+0,74 %) Itochu $8001 (+0,18 %) Republic Services $RSG (+1,73 %) Hermes $RMS (-0,04 %) Constellation Software $CSU (+2,4 %)
  
• Growth: -
• ETFsMSCI World $XDWD Nikkei 225 $XDJP and the WisdomTree Global Quality Dividend Growth $GGRP
• CryptoBitcoin $BTC and Ethereum $ETH
• Sales there was the (involuntary) sale of Encavis in March $ECV (-0,82 %)
  

Even though I was only able to add €2,000 net to my portfolio in the first quarter, the snowball had a very clear effect. Nevertheless, I will of course be investing more again in the medium term.

Target 2024:

My goal for this year is to reach 300.000€ in the portfolio. Now that my portfolio is already at €291,000, I have almost reached my target as of March.

However, I am still of the opinion that the markets will soon enter a sideways trend. In my opinion, this was already slightly indicated in the second half of March.

#dividends

#dividende

#rückblick

#depotupdate

#aktie

#stocks

#etfs

#crypto

#personalstrategy

Depot review December 2023 - On the home stretch, 2023 was still able to make up for all the losses from 2022 and break the €250,000 mark 🚀

In keeping with the new year, there is also a new profile picture for the first time - an AI-generated elf who specializes in lembas and mithril trading.

But now to the portfolio update:

After November was already the second-best November of my investment career, December has now also gone into the books as the second-best. In total, a return of +3,2% for December.

This brings my performance for the year to +24,0% and was thus able to beat my benchmark, the MSCI World (+20.2%).

Tech stocks were the main winners in 2023. With almost +8.000€ is hardly surprising NVIDIA
$NVDA (-0,57 %) at the top. With +5,000€ and +4,000€ respectively then follow Palo Alto Networks $PANW (+1,63 %) and Meta
$META (-0,09 %)

Also Alphabet
$GOOG (-0,99 %) and Microsoft
$MSFT (+0,97 %) with each +3.000€ very strong this year

The main losers this year were healthcare, utilities, consumer staples and China. The biggest losers this year were:

• Pfizer $PFE (+2,39 %) -1.100€
• China ETF $MCHS (+0,59 %) -900€
• Nextera $NEE (+0,7 %) -900€
• Johnson & Johnson $JNJ (+0,84 %) -800€
• Procter & Gable $PG (+1,08 %) -500€

In total I bought again in December for ~2.500€ in December.

In total, my portfolio now stands at ~252.000€. This corresponds to an absolute increase of ~€74,000 in the current year 2023. ~43.000€ of this comes from price gains, ~2.500€ from dividends / interest and ~28.000€ from additional investments.

Thanks to the strong November and December, all price losses from 2022 have been made up.

Nevertheless, it has to be said that the last two years were not profitable overall. The portfolio has actually only grown through additional investments.

Dividend:

• Dividends in December were +23% above the previous year at ~€300
• For the year as a whole, dividends were +24% above the previous year at ~2.300€. In addition there was ~200€ in interest
• The following companies paid the highest dividends this year, all of which distributed more than €100: Amgen $AMGN (+1,51 %)
  Procter & Gamble
  $PG (+1,08 %)
  Unilever
  $ULVR (+0,44 %)
  Johnson & Johnson
  $JNJ (+0,84 %) and Starbucks
  $SBUX (+1,63 %)
  
• The highest dividend yields are achieved by Allianz
  $ALV (+0,72 %) with 9,5% on. In 2024 and a further dividend increase, I see a 10% yield here

Buys & sells:

• I bought again in December for approx. 2,500€
• As always, my savings plans were executed:
• Blue chipsItochu $8001 (+0,18 %) ASML $ASML (+0,71 %) Deere $DE (-0,47 %) Lockheed Martin $LMT (-0,88 %) MasterCard $MA (-0,48 %) Northrop Grumman $NOC (-2,33 %) NVIDIA $NVDA (-0,57 %) Republic Services $RSG (+1,73 %) Thermo Fisher $TMO (+0,74 %)
  
• GrowthSartorius $SRT (-1,77 %) Synopsys $SNPS (+1,79 %)
  
• ETFsMSCI World $XDWD Nikkei 225 $XDJP Invesco MSCI China All-Shares $MCHS and the WisdomTree Global Quality Dividend Growth $GGRP
• CryptoBitcoin $BTC and Ethereum $ETH
• Sales there were none in December

With another extremely strong performance in December, my portfolio broke through the €250,000 barrier. This really exceeds my wildest expectations that I had a year ago or even in October.

At the beginning of the year, my year-end target was €220,000 and my best-case scenario was €240,000.

What investments did you make outside of the stock market?

In 2022 I bought a balcony power plant installed. This has given me around 600kwh this year, saving me electricity costs of ~€200. In relation to the purchase price, this corresponds to a return of almost 30%.

In 2024, the topic of renting is also on the agenda, so far only investments have been made here, but from 2024 rental income should also start to flow.

Outlook for 2024:

I am now assuming an above-average stock market year in 2024. If we really do see a soft landing and some additional interest rate cuts from both the Fed and the ECB, this should give the markets a further tailwind. Of course, you have to bear in mind that November and December have already priced in a lot, 10% should be possible in any case.

I therefore see my assets at ~€300,000 at the end of 2024. This is mainly due to the lower investments I plan to make in 2024.

Overall, my savings rate will probably fall from €2,500-3,000 per month to "only" ~€2,000. This is mainly due to some private expenses that will be incurred in 2024.

What are your plans & expectations for 2024?

#dividends
#dividende
#rückblick
#depotupdate
#aktie
#stocks
#etfs
#crypto
#personalstrategy

"When we talk to China, we get an airport; when we talk to Germany, we get a lecture." - Another round of Germany bashing

A few days ago, I read a very interesting article about Germany and many of our problems in Manager Magazin:

It mentions 3 keywords in detail: Morality, Prices & Technology

Morality:

The quote in the headline comes from the (Nigerian) Director-General of the WTO after she was invited by our Foreign Minister.

Many countries and regions of the world do not want to receive a moral lecture every time they place an order or invest in or with Germany. So they prefer to buy from other countries that simply want to do business

Prices:

The article mentions that BASF $BAS (-0,55 %) and Lanxess $LXS (-0,42 %) will give up their ammonia production in Germany because it is simply no longer economically viable given the energy prices here. Both companies will now operate most of their production in China.

Not only are we creating a further dependency on China, we are also doing massive damage to the environment. Ammonia is produced in China in a much less environmentally friendly way, which will increase CO2 emissions by a factor of 10.

Winner: China

Loser: Germany and the environment

Technology and "digital sovereignty":

While we don't seem to care about sovereignty in many cases (see the example of ammonia from above), we absolutely want to achieve it in the digital realm and are daring to go it alone here without the Americans (who are miles ahead).

Among others, our misappointed minister of the interior Nancy Faeser only wants to use home-grown software for the police - so they are tinkering with something themselves instead of relying on good, functioning software.

According to the article, the Bundeswehr also does not want to use software from abroad, unlike most other partners.

-> In the end, we will probably burn a lot of money again and have to continue to rely on fax and the like

As we are on a stock market platform here and not a political platform, I don't want to go into detail about the political view (don't vote for the Greens 😉), but how we as investors can deal with this.

And there is one way in particular: invest as little as possible in Germany and, if you do, only very selectively. My portfolio therefore only contains the following German stocks:

• Allianz
  $ALV (+0,72 %) As we Germans are known to be very security-conscious people, it is clear that we are particularly good at one thing: Insurance. As the largest or one of the largest insurers in the world, Allianz is therefore a good German share for me. In addition, my purchase in the corona low at €120 has given me a personal dividend yield of almost 10%
• Bechtle
  $BC8 (-2,81 %) If we want to make progress with digitalization, we need system houses like Bechtle. They digitize companies or even government agencies on both the software and hardware side - in addition, the company regularly increases its sales and dividends
• Encavis
  $ECV (-0,82 %) The topic of energy will be with us for a long time to come, and I believe that companies with a strong or pure focus on renewable energies can benefit from this. I think Encavis is well positioned here
• Sartorius
  $SRT3 (-1,97 %) In my view, pharmaceuticals will be one of the major growth areas alongside tech due to demographic developments, and we need laboratories for pharmaceutical research. As a laboratory supplier, Sartorius is therefore also operating in an exciting environment, which is currently affected by the end of the pandemic - during Corona there was a lot of purchasing, these stocks are now being reduced first. With Thermo Fisher $TMO (+0,74 %) is another company from this sector in my portfolio, also with similar problems

Regardless of these companies, I don't think there are too many exciting German stocks left. Munich Re $MUV2 (+0,21 %) could still be mentioned, and Porsche $P911 (-1,57 %) could also be an exciting brand and therefore share. Deutsche Börse might also be exciting $DB1 (-0,72 %) and, as very conservative stocks, possibly Telekom $DTE (-0,87 %) or Deutsche Post / DHL $DHL (-1,16 %)

What do you think of the points mentioned in the article?

And what are still "must have" stocks from Germany for you?

https://www.manager-magazin.de/politik/deutschland/mittelstand-warum-german-free-international-zum-werbeslogan-wird-a-2f28a720-c2ce-46a9-bdd6-dc9d8bcacd05

#aktie
#stocks
#deutschland
#personalstrategy

Position opened.. Quality company which was severely punished today.... "let's see what will" 😁

The most important dates for the coming week:

Monday

• Earnings reports from Cadence Design Systems Inc. ($CDNS (+3,5 %) ), Brown & Brown Inc .. ($BRO (+0,14 %) ), Alexandria Real Estate Equities ($ARE (+0,56 %) ) and W.R. Berkley Corp. ($WRB (+0,21 %) ).

Tuesday

• Earnings reports from Microsoft ($MSFT (+0,97 %) ), Alphabet Inc. ($GOOGL (-1,01 %) ), Visa ($V (+0,57 %) ), The Coca-Cola Company ($KO (+0,3 %) ) & the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index.

Wednesday:

• Earnings reports from Meta Platforms ($META (-0,09 %) ), Thermo Fisher Scientific ($TMO (+0,74 %) ), T-Mobile US ($TMUS (+1,69 %) ), IBM ($IBM (+0,56 %) ) and others, as well as data on New Home Sales.

Thursday:

• Earnings reports from Amazon ($AMZN (+2,65 %) ), Mastercard ($MA (-0,48 %) ), Intel Corporation ($INTC (+4,27 %) ) and others. Important economic events such as the publication of the U.S. gross domestic product for the third
  quarter
  2023, data on inventories and the Kansas City Manufacturing Index.

Friday:

• Earnings reports from ExxonMobil ($XOM (+1,51 %) ), Chevron ($CVX (+2,73 %) ), AbbVie ($ABBV (+0,05 %) ) and others. Key economic data include the PCE Price Index, income and expenditure and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - Final Reading.