The tanker market in late March 2025 is a tale of contrasts and catalysts. VLCCs hold steady with subtle gains, buoyed by U.S. Gulf tightness and Venezuelan export curbs, while Suezmax firms in the Atlantic but faces supply headwinds. Aframax rates explode, driven by Mediterranean frenzy and Canadian crude rerouting, and clean tankers—LRs, MRs, Handymax—see mixed fortunes with Eastern strength fading. U.S. tariffs on Venezuelan oil buyers, a Russia-Ukraine maritime truce, and Thailand’s rail bypass plan shake up trade flows. Iran’s forged Iraqi documents and Saudi production whispers add intrigue. It’s a market balancing resilience with disruption—rates are up, but risks are stacking.

This update dives into VLCC, Suezmax, Aframax, and LR/MR/Handymax trends, unpacking the forces at play. From freight surges to geopolitical pivots, here’s the detailed scoop—clear and grounded.

⏬ VLCC Market: Holding Firm Amid Flux

Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs), the titans of oil transport, trudged along with Middle East Gulf-to-China (TD3C) rates easing to WS 58.95, yielding a round-trip TCE of $39,224 per day as of March 28.

West Africa-to-China (TD15) slipped to WS 59.88 ($40,899/day), but U.S. Gulf-to-China (TD22) climbed to $8.522M ($45,838/day), up $262,555, reflecting a tight position list in the Gulf.

Modern tonnage for MEG eastbound runs is scarce, pushing charterers to older ships or ex-dry dock options at discounts—West Africa and Brazil offer more breathing room with balanced supply.

U.S. tariffs (25%) on Venezuelan oil buyers—effective March 25—slashed loadings at Jose port, with Chevron’s exit looming by May 27, dropping March exports from 15 to 7 cargoes.

Venezuela’s 790,000 bpd February exports (256,000 bpd to U.S.) now face rerouting—Arctic Securities sees VLCCs gaining from longer hauls like Canada or Saudi Arabia replacing them.

Breakwave suggests Saudi Arabia might flood markets as in 2015, potentially driving VLCC rates to $100,000/day if OPEC+ unwinds 2.2M bpd cuts starting April.

Clarksons notes a $48,800/day fleet average on March 26, down 4%—rates ticked to $46,263 by Friday—showing steadiness despite cooling from a $47,834 peak on March 19.

Iraq’s oil minister flagged Iranian tankers using forged Iraqi manifests—U.S. seizures in the Gulf underline Trump’s “maximum pressure” on Iran, tightening shadow fleet scrutiny.

Thailand’s $29bn Landbridge rail could bypass Malacca by 2030, trimming 2,000 km off VLCC routes—though years away, it’s a future wildcard.

MOL and CMB.Tech’s ammonia-fueled bulkers (not tankers) signal decarbonization’s ripple—VLCCs might feel fuel shifts later.

The market’s “steady as she goes”—U.S. Gulf strength and tariff fallout keep it afloat, but oversupply risks loom if Saudi acts.

⏳ Suezmax Market: Atlantic Rises, Clouds Gather

Suezmax, the mid-tier crude haulers, saw Nigeria-to-UK (TD20) rates rebound to WS 102.92 ($45,125/day) by March 28, up 7 points, fueled by U.S. Gulf momentum.

Guyana-to-UK (TD27) rose to WS 100.28 ($43,322/day), while CPC-to-Med (TD6) held steady at WS 130 ($63,123/day)—Middle East-to-Med (TD23) lingered at WS 93-94.

U.S. Gulf spiked to 145kt x WS 92.5, a $6,000/day TCE edge over TD20’s last-done WS 97.5—owners push for WS 100, a threshold narrowly missed last week.

Aframax support lifts both Atlantic sides—only one firm U.S. Gulf-to-TA option exists, with others tied to shaky schedules, tightening the squeeze.

Charterers snapped up West Africa and South Africa openers, thinning front-end lists—Eastern ballasters to Cape of Good Hope got nabbed, hinting at a post-weekend ease.

Clarksons pegged a $43,400/day average on March 26, down 1.4%—Atlantic firmness contrasts with supply creep that could stall gains next week.

Russia-Ukraine maritime truce (March 25) may cut Black Sea risks—Clarksons sees no volume shift yet, but safer Russian crude could draw ships.

The outlook’s firm for now—U.S. Gulf and Atlantic demand prop rates, but tonnage relief might cap the climb soon.

⏱️ Aframax Market: Europe Ignites, Rates Rocket

Aframax, the nimble crude movers, erupted—Clarksons’ fleet average hit $45,800/day on March 28, up 13% daily, 52% weekly, and 72% monthly.

Cross-Mediterranean (TD19) soared to WS 198 ($69,372/day) by March 28, a 69-point leap—eco-ships touched $67,000/day Friday, up 88% week-on-week after a $51,200 peak.

North Sea (TD7) jumped to WS 126.67 ($43,100/day), a 19-point gain—U.S. Gulf-to-UK (TD25) rose to WS 182.5 ($47,747/day), and Mexico-to-Gulf (TD26) hit WS 189 ($49,644/day).

Signal Ocean ties the surge to U.S. 10% tariffs on Canadian crude—Europe (UK, Netherlands) absorbs 69% of redirected barrels, with Aframaxes hauling over 75%.

Mediterranean fixing for April stems slashed tonnage—Fearnleys notes shrinking lists and few U.S. Gulf ballasters, driving rates skyward.

North Sea lagged but firmed to $46,900/day Friday—consistent cargo could push it higher as ships chase hotter markets.

CPC output stays quiet for Aframaxes—rates there await a spark, while U.S. Gulf-to-Europe eco-runs hit $43,700/day, up 38% weekly.

Clarksons calls it a “flurry of activity”—Med’s 57% weekly growth leads, but parity with Suezmax TCEs might temper the frenzy soon.

Russia-Ukraine truce hasn’t shifted volumes—ABG Sundal deems it “inconsequential” for now—focus stays on European demand.

Positive owner sentiment rules—Aframax outpaces bigger peers, with Q2 looking rosy if Canadian flows hold.

1 Year T/C - VLCC SUEZMAX AFRAMAX ECO / SCRUBBER - March 26th

⏸️ LR/MR/Handymax Market: Clean Hits a Wall

LR2s, the large clean tankers, hit a plateau—TC1 (75kt MEG/Japan) fell from WS 163.61 to WS 153.33, and TC20 (90kt MEG/UK) dropped $243,000 to $3.956M by March 28.

West of Suez, TC15 (Med/East) dipped to $2.985M—stable but softer—Eastern petrochemical demand eased, cooling last week’s spike.

LR1s bucked the trend—TC5 (55kt MEG/Japan) rose to WS 180.94, and TC8 (65kt MEG/UK) climbed to $3.33M—UK’s TC16 edged to WS 115.94, up 2.81 points.

MRs in the MEG retreated—TC17 (35kt to East Africa) lost 27.5 points to WS 237.5—while UK’s TC2 (37kt to U.S. Atlantic) peaked at WS 195, settling at WS 185.63 ($29,086/day).

U.S. Gulf MRs surged—TC14 (38kt to UK) hit WS 136.79, TC18 (to Brazil) reached WS 201.43, and TC21 (to Caribbean) jumped 38% to $839,286—basket TCE rose to $31,802.

Handymax softened—Med’s TC6 fell to WS 248.89 (down 30 points), and UK’s TC23 dropped to WS 198.06—last week’s Baltic gains faded.

Eastern strength wanes—naphtha pull subsided—U.S. Gulf enquiry cleared prompt ships, lifting rates there instead.

MOL’s ammonia-ready chemical tankers (2028-2029 delivery) hint at clean fuel shifts—today’s rates feel current supply more.

⏳ What’s Shaping It: Tariffs and Truces

U.S. 25% tariffs on Venezuelan oil buyers and Chevron’s exit cut exports—VLCCs eye longer hauls—China and Iran bristle.

Canadian crude tariffs (10%) reroute barrels to Europe—Aframax thrives—Signal Ocean sees it lasting into Q2.

Russia-Ukraine maritime truce eases Black Sea risks—no volume boost yet—sanctions relief tied to Russia’s grain trade.

Iran’s forged Iraqi manifests dodge U.S. pressure—Iraq denies involvement—shadow fleets adapt.

Thailand’s Landbridge and Saudi supply hikes loom—OPEC+ cuts unwind could flood tankers by late 2025.

🌐 Outlook: Hot Spots, High Stakes

VLCCs hover near $45,000-$50,000/day—Saudi moves or Venezuelan gaps could spike it—steady for now.

Suezmax holds $43,000-$63,000/day—Atlantic’s firm, but supply might cool it—watch U.S. Gulf.

Aframax rides $45,000-$67,000/day—Med and Europe lead—Canadian crude keeps it cooking.

Clean tankers split—LR1s and U.S. MRs gain, LR2s and Handymax ease—East fades, West rises.

💬 Your Take?

Aframax boom or VLCC sleeper? Drop your thoughts—let’s unpack it! 🚢

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*The Worldscale (WS) rate is a system used to calculate tanker freight rates, where WS 100 represents a standard base rate for a specific route. Rates above or below this benchmark indicate how much more or less a charterer will pay relative to the base cost. A higher WS rate means better earnings for shipowners, while a lower WS rate means lower transportation costs for charterers.

The tanker market in late March 2025 is firing on multiple fronts. VLCC rates shot up as Middle East cargoes snapped up ships, while Suezmax hit a yearly high in the Mediterranean with Kazakh oil pumping strong. Aframax lags with patchy demand, but clean tankers—LRs, MRs, and Handymax—are riding an Eastern wave of gains. U.S. sanctions are slamming shadow fleets, proposed port fees on Chinese ships spark debate, and Red Sea tensions stretch routes. Venezuela’s export shake-up looms, and Russian oil keeps flowing through sneaky transfers. It’s a high-stakes scene with solid rates and big uncertainties brewing.

This update breaks down VLCC, Suezmax, Aframax, and LR/MR/Handymax trends, plus the forces rocking the boat. From freight spikes to geopolitical jolts, here’s the full picture—laid out clear and simple.

⏬ VLCC Market: Rates Jump, Eyes on April

VLCCs, the giants of crude shipping, saw rates leap to $52,100/day on Middle East-to-Asia runs—a 33% weekly jump—as Saudi April cargoes drained a tight tonnage pool.

A MEG/Korea trip hit WS 67.5 ($51,536/day TCE), nudging toward WS 70, while West Africa to China (TD15) climbed to WS 66.75 ($49,598/day) and U.S. Gulf to China (TD22) rose to $7.797M ($40,321/day).

Atlantic support comes from Brazil and West Africa, but U.S. Gulf stumbles—tariff threats of $1.5M per port call on Chinese-built ships slow exports, though TD22 gained $455,000.

Sanctions nabbed five VLCCs like Kohana (Iran-linked) and tracked Sovcomflot’s STS off Hong Kong—700,000 barrels to Hannah—yet India (1.6M bpd) and China keep Russian oil flowing.

Venezuela’s 790,000 bpd exports face a Chevron $CVX (-6,89 %) exit—Clarksons predicts a 0.5% tonne-mile boost if Middle East crude fills the U.S. gap.

The Daban’s month-long Russian oil trek ended in Qingdao, dodging sanctions via three Sovcomflot Aframaxes—shadow fleets adapt fast.

Fearnley sees yields over 10% for Frontline $FRO (-5,69 %) and DHT $DHT (-4,59 %) —rates could stick above $50,000/day if April stays hot, though futures lag the spot surge.

Activity’s set to hum—Atlantic production rises as peak export season nears, keeping owners hopeful.

⏳ Suezmax Market: Med Peaks, West Wavers

Suezmax in the Mediterranean soared to $63,000/day—a year-high—driven by 38 CPC cargoes from Kazakhstan’s Tengiz field (960,000 bpd via Black Sea).

Globally, rates averaged $52,000/day, up 21%, but Nigeria to UK (TD20) slipped to WS 95.56 ($40,980/day), and CPC/Med (TD6) eased to WS 129.25 ($62,910/day).

West Africa and U.S. Gulf softened—TD20 dropped 7 points, and a Wilhelmshaven relet fell to WS 92.5 after a WS 100 sub—charterers dodged a hike past WS 90.

Germany seized the Eventin (152,000 dwt) with Russian oil in the Baltic—a $30M prize—signaling rare crackdowns on shadow fleets.

Middle East’s TD23 held steady at WS 92.5-93, despite ships shifting west—9M barrels head to Asia in March, 3M more booked for April.

Ukrainian drone hits on CPC pipelines didn’t dent loadings—Kazakh cuts for OPEC+ loom, but no big slowdown shows yet.

Allied notes Western momentum, though Atlantic demand lags—rates might climb further if tonnage stays tight and Asia pulls more.

Owners eye a spillover—West Africa’s steady gains could tighten things up if Med strength holds.

⏱️ Aframax Market: Flat but Flickers

Aframax, the smaller crude runners, stayed muted—North Sea’s TD7 parked at WS 107.5 ($25,500/day), while U.S. Gulf’s TD26 rose to WS 135.83 ($26,577/day).

Mediterranean’s TD19 ticked up to WS 120.61 ($29,000/day), but demand’s weak—March stems are scarce, pushing dates to early April.

U.S. Gulf to UK (TD25) gained to WS 145.56 ($34,697/day), hinting at life as ships ballast out—sanctions hit three Sovcomflot units like Volans.

Russian oil STS off Hong Kong (700,000 barrels) and Nakhodka Bay glitches (e.g., Canis Power) highlight shadow fleet risks—lists still show surplus tonnage.

CPC Aframax loadings fell to 25 in February from 33, with Suezmax taking the load—Kazakh shifts keep things lopsided.

North Sea and CPC lack punch—U.S. firming could lift rates to $30,000/day, but it’s a waiting game for now.

Owners see quiet fixes—consistency’s missing, though Atlantic flickers offer a slim chance of a push.

1 Year T/C - VLCC SUEZMAX AFRAMAX ECO / SCRUBBER - March 19th

⏸️ LR/MR/Handymax Market: Clean Gains East

LR2s in the MEG topped out at WS 166.94 on TC1 (75kt to Japan), now WS 164.17, with TC20 to UK at $4.2M—Med/East (TC15) dipped to $3.04M.

LR1s climbed—TC5 (55kt MEG/Japan) reached WS 180.94, TC8 to UK hit $3.33M—while UK’s TC16 stayed flat at WS 112.5.

MRs roared in the MEG—TC17 to East Africa soared to WS 262.86—UK’s TC2 rose to WS 172.5 ($21,004/day), and U.S. Gulf’s TC14 jumped to WS 121.79.

Handymax rallied—Med’s TC6 hit WS 268.33, UK’s TC23 crossed WS 200 to WS 207.5—naphtha demand from Asia’s petrochemical boom drives it.

Sanctions cut scrubber premiums to $400/day—VLSFO ($497/tonne) edges out HSFO ($439.50)—some owners ditch scrubbers for profit.

U.S. Gulf MRs woke up—TC18 to Brazil hit WS 175.71, TC21 to Caribbean rose 40% to $617,857—Atlantic TCE basket climbed to $27,847.

Eastern rates rule—West gains traction, but Asia’s petrochemical pull keeps clean tankers humming strong.

🌐 What’s Stirring It: Sanctions and Shifts

U.S. sanctions target Iran (Shandong refiner, eight tankers) and Russia (Sovcomflot STS)—India, China, and Venezuela (790,000 bpd) adapt fast.

FMC eyes chokepoints (e.g., Suez) for bans—$1M-$100M fees on Chinese ships could clog U.S. ports, says Bimco—coal and grain face big cost hikes.

Red Sea airstrikes vs. Houthis stretch routes—Clarksons sees container rates up by June—crude pivots to Atlantic as Russia/Iran tighten.

Kazakh CPC oil (960,000 bpd) and Asian demand juice Suezmax and clean tankers—U.S. Gulf lags under tariff clouds.

Venezuela’s Chevron $CVX (-6,89 %) exit could shift long-haul crude—sanctions and fees might reshape flows, not kill them.

It’s a sanctions-loaded, trade-twisting mix—rates ride high now, but disruption’s lurking.

USS Harry S. Truman carrying out strikes against the Houthis

🚨 Outlook: Hot Streaks, Big Risks

VLCCs might hold $50,000+/day if April cargoes pile on—Atlantic could add steam as exports peak.

Suezmax peaks in the Med at $60,000+/day—West needs a demand jolt—sanctions keep tightening the vise.

Aframax waits for traction—$30,000/day’s in reach if U.S. stirs—clean LR/MR/Handymax bank on Asia’s heat.

Port fees and Red Sea chaos could spike costs—volatility’s brewing, but strength’s got legs for now.

💬 What’s Your View?

Riding VLCC highs, or betting on Suezmax’s Med run? Drop your thoughts—let’s dig in! 🚢

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$DHT (-4,59 %)

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*The Worldscale (WS) rate is a system used to calculate tanker freight rates, where WS 100 represents a standard base rate for a specific route. Rates above or below this benchmark indicate how much more or less a charterer will pay relative to the base cost. A higher WS rate means better earnings for shipowners, while a lower WS rate means lower transportation costs for charterers.

I have been interested in buying some tanker stock to add some more dividend stocks to my portfolio. I am aware that the market is volatile and it is highly cyclical. There is plenty of alternatives to invest in, but I have narrowed down on either Torm or Hafnia, which - from what I understand - are both product tanker companies. Both have very high dividend yields however one is based in Britain, the other one is based in Singapore.

I am looking into investing about 40K and I am unsure whether to pick $TRMD A (-8,83 %) or $HAFNI (-4,46 %) . Or both each 50% (I am sure someone will say 'none').

Is there anybody out there who has looked more detailed into these companies and would be willing to share some insight?

For those who are concerned about my finacial health: No, I am not investing all my money into tanker stocks. It is an addition to an otherwise fairly conservative portfolio. 😉

The tanker market in mid-March 2025 shows stark contrasts. VLCCs face an eerie calm in the U.S. Gulf amid Trump’s tariff uncertainty, while Suezmax rates soar with tight tonnage in Europe and West Africa. Aframax softens slightly, as clean tankers—MR and LR—see mixed fortunes: LR2s spike in the MEG, but MRs lag in the U.S. Gulf. New U.S. sanctions on shadow fleet VLCCs and tugs, plus potential Iranian interdictions, rattle the sector, with $1.5M port fees looming for Chinese-built ships. Investors eyeing tanker stocks navigate a landscape of regional strength, geopolitical risks, and trade shifts.

This update covers VLCC, Suezmax, Aframax, MR, and LR trends, plus key external drivers. From rate movements to sanction shocks, here’s the latest—volatility’s in the spotlight.

⏬ VLCC Market: U.S. Silence, MEG Stirrings

VLCC rates edged up slightly, with MEG to China (TD3C) at WS 58.55 ($39,305/day round-trip TCE) and West Africa to China (TD15) at WS 59.63 ($41,173/day TCE).

U.S. Gulf to China (TD22) held at $7.292M ($35,834/day TCE), but spot activity there turned eerily quiet—rates dipped to $35,700/day, a 13.1% weekly drop—as Chinese buyers pause amid Trump’s tariff flux.

Activity picked up late week in the MEG, with 25-31 March cargoes overlapping early April stems, leveling rates as owners resist further downside.

Atlantic tonnage thinned as Brazil and West Africa absorbed ships ballasting from the East, yet U.S. Gulf softness persists—Chinese buyers favor Panama and Canada.

Sanctions hit six VLCCs, including the 300,000-dwt Itaugua, scuppering its recycling deal in Bangladesh.

A Ukraine-Russia ceasefire could flood markets with Russian oil, easing pressure on Iran’s 1.8M bpd exports—VLCCs might see shifts if U.S. “maximum pressure” intensifies.

Investors could find stability in MEG gains, but U.S. uncertainty looms large.

⏳ Suezmax Market: Tightness Drives Gains

Suezmax owners seized momentum, with Nigeria to UK Continent (TD20) jumping 10 points to WS 98.75 ($42,938/day TCE) and CPC to Med (TD6) soaring 23.5 points to WS 123.30 ($57,961/day TCE) for early April stems.

Guyana to UK Continent (TD27) rose to WS 94.17 ($39,899/day TCE), and MEG to Med (TD23) hit WS 92.5—Europe and West Africa cargoes slashed tonnage, forcing charterers to pay premiums for April laycans.

WS 120 was reported on subs for CPC/Med, with sub-price cap Urals trade adding demand pressure.

The U.S. Gulf lags, with tight tonnage undermined by cheaper Aframaxes below WS 145—though thinning Aframax lists for lightering may stabilize rates.

MEG lists are balanced, but Western strength could draw ships via the Cape or Red Sea.

Owners hold the upper hand—investors might see sustained upside if cargo flows persist.

⏱️ Aframax Market: Soft Spots Persist

Aframax markets eased, with North Sea’s TD7 (Cross-UK Continent) flat at WS 107.5+ ($26,000/day TCE) and Mediterranean’s TD19 (Cross-Med) down 5 points to WS 115.39 ($26,200/day TCE). Across the Atlantic, TD26 (Mexico/U.S. Gulf) slipped to WS 126.11 ($22,272/day TCE), TD9 (Covenas/U.S. Gulf) to WS 123.13 ($21,439/day TCE), and TD25 (U.S. Gulf/UK Continent) fell 10 points to WS 131.11 ($29,402/day TCE).

North Sea activity stayed sporadic, pushing natural dates to late March—rates need tighter tonnage to lift.

Mediterranean lists look healthy, but firm Suezmax rates curb part-loading, with third-decade stems fuller than the second.

Sanctions tagged two Aframaxes (e.g., 104,000-dwt Corona Fun), hinting at shadow fleet risks—softness may linger unless regional demand firms.

Investors might eye thinning lists as a potential floor, but gains remain elusive.

1 Year T/C - VLCC SUEZMAX AFRAMAX ECO / SCRUBBER - March 12th

⏸️ MR Market: Steady East, Sluggish West

MR tankers showed regional splits. MEG’s TC17 (35kt MEG/East Africa) hovered at WS 205-210, stable despite LR gains, reflecting consistent demand.

UK-Continent’s TC2 (37kt ARA/U.S. Atlantic) rose from WS 138.75 to WS 159.06 ($18,285/day TCE), and TC19 (37kt ARA/West Africa) climbed to WS 179.69—gradual Western improvement.

U.S. Gulf MRs stalled—TC14 (38kt U.S. Gulf/UK-Continent) stuck at WS 85, TC18 (U.S. Gulf/Brazil) at WS 135-137.5, and TC21 (U.S. Gulf/Caribbean) edged to $414,286—torpid amid tariff uncertainty.

Sanctions hit the 45,700-dwt Polaris 1, signaling shadow fleet exposure.

The Atlantic Triangulation TCE rose to $19,667 from $17,176—MRs hold steady in the East, but Western softness caps upside for investors.

⏹️ LR Market: MEG Strength, Mixed Elsewhere

LR tankers saw MEG-driven gains. LR2s on TC1 (75kt MEG/Japan) spiked 21.67 points to WS 151.67, and TC20 (90kt MEG/UK-Continent) hit $3.89M (twice reported on subs), reflecting hot demand. LR1s followed, with TC5 (55kt MEG/Japan) up 30.94 points to WS 167.5 and TC8 (65kt MEG/UK-Continent) rising to $3.1M—significant weekly jumps.

West of Suez, TC15 (Med/East) ticked to $3.1M, but UK-Continent’s TC16 (60kt ARA/West Africa) dipped to WS 110.94, muted by weak momentum.

DIS’s four Chinese-built LR1s face $1.5M U.S. port fees, potentially skewing trade—owners may sell or reroute.

LR strength in the East offers upside, but Western quietude and tariff risks temper the outlook—investors might weigh regional plays.

🌐 Geopolitics & Risks: Sanctions and Fees Loom

External pressures are mounting. U.S. sanctions hit 10 tankers (six VLCCs, two Aframaxes, one MR, one Panamax) and three tugs aiding Iran’s shadow fleet, disrupting recycling (e.g., Itaugua) and STS ops off Malaysia/Singapore.

A Ukraine-Russia ceasefire could boost Russian oil, easing Iran’s 1.8M bpd exports—U.S. interdiction plans via the Proliferation Security Initiative add uncertainty.

Trump’s $1.5M fees on Chinese-built ships (71% of new tankers) threaten owners like DIS—asset prices could split, with non-Chinese ships rising.

U.S.-China tariffs (20% vs. crude levies) quiet U.S. Gulf VLCCs—investors face shifting flows and cost hikes.

🚨 Outlook: Regional Divides Persist

VLCCs may stabilize if MEG activity holds, but U.S. Gulf weakness and Iran risks cloud the picture—a Russian oil surge could shift demand. Suezmax strength could deepen with tight tonnage—Western demand may pull MEG ships. Aframax softness lingers without cargo lift, while MR and LR shine in the MEG but falter West of Suez. Sanctions and fees could favor non-Chinese tonnage, raising freight costs—investors might find Suezmax and LR upside, tempered by VLCC and Aframax caution.

💬 Your View?

Bullish on Suezmax gains, or wary of VLCC quiet? Share your take—let’s unpack it! 🚢

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$TNK (-5,01 %)

$ASC (-7,94 %)

$INSW (-7,86 %)

*The Worldscale (WS) rate is a system used to calculate tanker freight rates, where WS 100 represents a standard base rate for a specific route. Rates above or below this benchmark indicate how much more or less a charterer will pay relative to the base cost. A higher WS rate means better earnings for shipowners, while a lower WS rate means lower transportation costs for charterers.

Week 10 of 2025 delivers a tanker market of contrasts. VLCCs remain flat with balanced tonnage, while Suezmax tightens and lifts rates in Europe and West Africa. Aframax softens under weak demand, as clean tankers—MRs and LRs—display regional divergence: LR2s recover in the East, but MRs face pressure in the West. Geopolitical risks escalate with U.S. tariff threats, potential Iranian interdictions, and Canada’s export surge, impacting $6.7bn of U.S.-listed tonnage. Investors eyeing shipping or oil markets face a blend of stability, opportunity, and uncertainty.

This update spans VLCC, Suezmax, Aframax, MR, and LR trends, plus key external drivers. From rate shifts to regulatory clouds, here’s the latest—volatility remains a fixture.

⏬ VLCC Market: Steady with Latent Potential

VLCCs stayed level this week, with MEG to China (TD3C) at WS* 57.10 ($38,342/day round-trip TCE, up $1,000 w-o-w) and West Africa to China (TD15) at WS 58.50 ($40,633/day TCE). U.S. Gulf to China (TD22) plunged $767,500 to $7.28M ($36,497/day TCE), reflecting a $4,700/day drop. MEG/East rates held at WS 57 for modern ships—older units saw discounts—while West Africa activity rose above WS 60, bolstering owner sentiment despite weak U.S. Gulf exports. Breakwave Advisors flags tight dark fleet supply, with Iran’s February loadings down 37% m-o-m due to “clean” STS vessel shortages and Shandong bans. China’s refining strength (gasoil at historical norms, gasoline two-thirds above) contrasts Brent’s 2021 low—OPEC+ cuts easing and Russia sanction talks could lift VLCCs. Investors might note this stability, with geopolitical shifts as a wildcard.

⏳ Suezmax Market: Tight Lists Push Rates

Suezmax enjoyed a busy Tuesday, with Europe and West Africa cargoes trimming tonnage lists and nudging rates up. Nigeria to UK Continent (TD20) gained 2.5 points to WS 87.83 ($36,548/day TCE), and CPC to Med (TD6) hit WS 100.9 ($39,838/day TCE), while MEG to Med (TD23) reached WS 91. Five cargoes remain open, suggesting further upside as sentiment strengthens—TD20 and TD6 both rose 2.5 points from last fixtures. In the U.S. Gulf, tonnage is tight for March 10-20, with solid WTI exports to Europe, yet Aframaxes at WS 150 snag stems from Suezmaxes. MEG tonnage is scarce, but quiet volume and laycans shifting to mid-March dampen owners’ leverage. Breakwave sees VLCCs leading geopolitically, but Suezmax resilience here hints at regional gains—cargo flow will be key.

⏱️ Aframax Market: Demand Lags, Rates Soften

Aframax markets opened the week quietly in the West. North Sea’s scant activity left a long prompt tonnage list, easing TD7 (Cross-UK Continent) to WS 107.5-110 ($27,000/day TCE) with downward pressure building. Mediterranean/Black Sea demand weakened, dropping TD19 (Cross-Med) 3.5 points to WS 121.28 ($29,733/day TCE), as prompt ships linger and Suezmaxes dominate. In the Americas, Mexico’s stem cancellations tanked TD26 (Mexico/U.S. Gulf) and TD9 (Covenas/U.S. Gulf) 10 points to WS 132.78 ($25,687/day TCE) and WS 130.94 ($24,833/day TCE), while TD25 (U.S. Gulf/UK Continent) fell 15 points to WS 143.89 ($34,447/day TCE). Canada’s Trans Mountain Pipeline spiked exports 59% y-o-y to 373,000 bpd, with Aframaxes (75% of Vancouver loads) serving Asia—yet U.S. tariffs loom large. Ballasting remains viable; softness may deepen without a demand spark.

1 Year T/C - VLCC SUEZMAX AFRAMAX ECO / SCRUBBER - March 5th

⏸️ MR Market: Western Pressure Persists

Medium Range (MR) tankers faced a softening week. MEG’s TC17 (35kt MEG/East Africa) peaked at low WS 220s early but fell to WS 211.79 as activity cooled. UK-Continent’s TC2 (37kt ARA/U.S. Atlantic) dropped from WS 152.5 to WS 135 ($13,500/day TCE), and TC19 (37kt ARA/West Africa) hit WS 157.81 ($19,216/day TCE), chipped away over five days. In the U.S. Gulf, TC14 (38kt U.S. Gulf/UK-Continent) eased to WS 85, TC18 (U.S. Gulf/Brazil) fell to WS 137.86, and TC21 (U.S. Gulf/Caribbean) lost $35,715 to $403,571—bottoming out amid slow demand. Breakwave notes NW Europe CPP loadings supporting TC2, yet rising MR ballasters from a closed U.S. Gulf arbitrage cap gains. Russia’s 9% February diesel drop adds supply pressure—MRs may struggle unless U.S. summer demand shifts the tide.

⏹️ LR Market: Eastern Gains, Western Stagnation

Long Range (LR) tankers showed regional splits. MEG LR2s rose, with TC1 (75kt MEG/Japan) up 6.11 points to WS 130 and TC20 (90kt MEG/UK-Continent) steady at $3.3M, fueled by diesel and jet demand—Breakwave sees light distillates driving Pacific LRs. LR1s lagged, with TC5 (55kt MEG/Japan) down 3.75 points to WS 134.69 and TC8 (65kt MEG/UK-Continent) dipping to $2.67M, reflecting quieter activity. West of Suez, TC15 (Med/East) held at $2.85M, but UK-Continent’s TC16 (60kt ARA/West Africa) fell from WS 123.61 to WS 113.33 as demand faltered. Breakwave flags rising LR availability in MEG short-haul trades, capping rate upside despite naphtha import potential for Asia’s refinery season. LR2 resilience contrasts LR1 and Western softness—watch distillate trends for direction.

🌐 Geopolitics & Risks: Costs and Flows in Flux

External forces are rattling the market. The U.S. considers interdicting Iranian tankers (1.7M bpd exports, a 4-year high) via the Proliferation Security Initiative, risking trade disruptions. Trump’s $1M-$1.5M fees on Chinese-built ships threaten $6.7bn of U.S.-listed tonnage—Teekay Tankers (44.4%), Frontline (35.8%), and others face hikes that could raise freight costs or divert buyers to non-U.S. crude. Canada’s 59% export surge (373,000 bpd) via Trans Mountain aids Aframaxes, but 10% U.S. tariffs cloud the outlook. Breakwave sees VLCCs gaining most from 2025’s turbulence—China’s discounted crude demand persists despite sanctions. Investors might weigh tariff exposure against tonnage tightness—uncertainty’s baked in.

🚨 Outlook: Diverging Fortunes

VLCCs could rise if Russia sanctions ease or Iran flows shift, favoring mainstream tonnage per Breakwave. Suezmax may firm further with Europe/West Africa cargoes, though U.S. Gulf lags. Aframax softness persists without demand, despite Canada’s boost, while MRs face Western pressure and LRs eye Eastern distillate gains. Geopolitical risks—tariffs, interdictions—could lift costs, favoring compliant tonnage, but mute U.S. export edges. Investors might find selective plays—VLCC and Suezmax strength versus MR/Aframax risks—amid a volatile backdrop.

💬 Your Take?

Where do you see tankers heading? Bullish on VLCCs, or wary of MR softness? Share your view—let’s dive in! 🚢

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*The Worldscale (WS) rate is a system used to calculate tanker freight rates, where WS 100 represents a standard base rate for a specific route. Rates above or below this benchmark indicate how much more or less a charterer will pay relative to the base cost. A higher WS rate means better earnings for shipowners, while a lower WS rate means lower transportation costs for charterers.

The tanker market as of late February 2025 is a study in contrasts. VLCC rates oscillate between tight supply and softening sentiment, driven by geopolitical shifts and a wave of new regulations. Meanwhile, Suezmax and Aframax segments wrestle with oversupply and muted activity, though glimmers of demand—like Sudan’s resumed Dar Blend exports—offer some counterbalance. New U.S. port fees targeting Chinese tonnage, sanctions on Iran and Russia, and Trump’s Venezuela policy shift are reshaping the landscape. Oil demand wavers, adding another layer of complexity for shipping investors.

This update dives into the latest across VLCC, Suezmax, and Aframax markets, alongside regulatory and oil market trends. For those tracking shipping stocks or oil-related investments, the mix of risks and opportunities here is worth dissecting. Volatility is the name of the game—let’s break it down.

⏬ VLCC Market: Volatility Holds Firm

VLCCs East of Suez show rates in the high WS 50s to China, a level reflecting recent ups and downs. The market’s been quiet this week with IE Week in London slowing activity, but modern tonnage remains scarce, hinting at potential rate gains once schedules clear. In the Atlantic, it’s a different story—tonnage lists are growing, and a lack of U.S. Gulf business has nudged Brazil-Far East rates down to WS 57.25 as the last done deal. Geopolitical ripples add spice: China’s rebounding imports of sanctioned Russian and Iranian crude are fueling demand for older, unsanctioned VLCCs from the shadow fleet. Yet, U.S. sanctions just hit 5 VLCCs (average age ~19 years), part of an 11% capacity squeeze, while the EU and UK blacklist 153 shadow fleet vessels. This tightens supply for non-compliant routes, particularly Middle East to Asia, but softening Western sentiment and expanding tonnage could cap gains. Investors might note the thin balance here—tightness in the East versus oversupply risks in the West.

Rates - Dirty - Spot WS February 26th 2025

⏳ Suezmax Market: Steady but Under Pressure

Suezmax markets are subdued, with little to report East or West of Suez. In West Africa, available tonnage keeps climbing while cargo volumes stay weak, dragging TD20 rates into the mid-80s—a softening trend mirrored in the broader BDTI index. Stateside, activity is picking up in the U.S. Gulf, but Aframaxes are stealing the show, leaving Suezmax supply in charterers’ favor. At least six safe ships are open for mid-first decade March, suggesting rates for USG/TA runs might correct to WS 75 soon. In the East, surface activity is quiet beyond a few Indian quotes, and older tonnage keeps the market balanced, limiting upside. However, 20T crane-fitted vessels are scarcer, which could lift rates if Basrah barrels surge. A rare bright spot: Sudan’s first Dar Blend cargo in a year—1 million barrels on the Suezmax Toska—departed Monday, hinting at Red Sea demand if exports stabilize. For now, it’s a waiting game—steady, but soft.

⏱️ Aframax Market: Cargo Crunch Persists

Aframaxes are feeling the pinch from limited cargo availability. IE Week has kept surface activity low, and natural dates are stretching to the end of March’s first decade. Larger ships are snapping up stems, leaving fewer opportunities for Aframaxes, while ballasting out remains an attractive option for early tonnage. In the Mediterranean, vessels from the North Sea are adding to an already long list, forcing owners to compete harder for employment. U.S. Gulf action might pull some ships stateside, but without a local cargo boost, it’s unlikely to lift rates here. Sanctions complicate things further—3 Aframaxes (~22 years old) were tagged in the latest U.S. Iran crackdown, part of a 16% capacity hit for this class. On the flip side, Dar Blend’s return (historically 61% Aframax-lifted) could tighten tonnage if Sudan’s exports hold. Investors might weigh this oversupply against niche demand pockets—recovery hinges on volume.

1 Year T/C - VLCC SUEZMAX AFRAMAX ECO / SCRUBBER

🌐 Regulatory Waves: Rising Costs, Shifting Flows

Regulatory changes are shaking the tanker market. The U.S. proposes new port fees—up to $1M-$1.5M per call for Chinese-built or owned ships (21-22% of U.S. trade tonnage), adding $7.14-$21.43/t to Aframax costs. This could make U.S. crude less competitive in Europe, pushing oil firms to favor non-penalized tonnage. Sanctions pile on: U.S. targets 13 Iran-linked vessels (11% VLCC, 16% Aframax capacity), while EU/UK bans on Russian hubs like Ust-Luga and 40 more tankers disrupt shadow fleets. Trump’s plan to revoke Chevron’s Venezuela license by March 1 threatens 209k b/d of Aframax exports to the U.S., likely rerouting VLCCs to Asia and raising freight costs. Syria’s EU sanction relief and Dar Blend’s restart signal potential Mediterranean demand, but uncertainty reigns. These moves could favor compliant tonnage while squeezing margins elsewhere—a mixed bag for shipping profitability.

📈 Oil Market Backdrop: Demand Clouds Form

Oil prices are testing the low end of their range, driven by demand worries. China’s shift to alternative energy weighs on growth forecasts, and OPEC+ may boost output, risking oversupply. Geopolitical tensions haven’t jolted prices, with spare capacity cushioning supply fears. Atlantic basin crude growth supports tanker demand short-term, but gas product gains outpace liquids, tempering upside for crude carriers. Low inventories offer some stability, yet without clearer demand signals, absorbing extra supply remains a question mark. Investors might see this as a neutral-to-bearish signal for tanker reliance—watch China closely.

🚨 Outlook: A Delicate Balance

The tanker market sits on a knife-edge. VLCCs could see rate support from tight modern tonnage and shadow fleet demand, but Atlantic oversupply looms as a counterweight. Suezmax and Aframax segments need cargo volume to halt softening trends—Dar Blend’s return offers hope, though it’s tentative. Regulatory costs and sanctions may bolster compliant tonnage rates while pressuring U.S. export economics. Venezuela’s potential output drop and Russia’s restricted flows add downside risks, offset by Syria’s sanction easing and Atlantic basin growth. For shipping investors, it’s a wait-and-see moment—volatility isn’t going anywhere soon.

💬 What’s Your View?

How do you read the tanker market’s next move? Are VLCCs a buy on tightness, or is oversupply the bigger story? Drop your thoughts—let’s unpack this together!

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