1H·

Intesa Sanpaolo

$ISP (-0,03 %)

Following the sale of some dividend stocks

$BP. (-0,28 %)

$VZ (+0,14 %)

I bought a 2nd tranche of an Italian bank stock with a dividend:

intesa sanpaolo

Here is a compact fundamental analysis of Intesa Sanpaolo

## 1st P/E ratio (trailing & forward) incl. sector comparison

| Key figure | Intesa Sanpaolo | Typical EU banking sector* |

|----------------------------|-----------------|----------------------------|

| Share price (approx.) | € 5.1 | - |

| P/E ratio trailing (TTM) | 9-11 approx. 8-10 (large euro banks, roughly) |

| P/E ratio forward (estimate) | around 7-9 (derived from high earnings growth and dividend yield) | similar, sometimes slightly higher |

| P/S ratio (price/sales, ttm) | approx. 3.3-4.1 mostly 2-3 |

| P/B ratio (price/book, mrq) | approx. 1.5 often 0.7-1.2 |

Interpretation: The **KGV** is slightly above the pure substance sector (many banks trade below book value), which reflects the high profitability and dividend policy, but is still in the "favorable to fair" range in absolute terms.

## 2. earnings per share (EPS) & trend

- Current EPS (TTM): around € 0.50-0.54 per share.

- Net profit 2024: Record net profit of € 8.7 bn, +12% compared to 2023.

- Profit growth: According to Simply Wall St, on average approx. 28% p.a. over several years, sales growth approx. 11.5% p.a.

The **EPS trend** of the last 3-5 years thus shows clearly above-average growth for a major bank, driven by the interest rate environment, fees and insurance business.

## 3. EBIT & EBIT margin (operating result)

Banks typically report operating profit as "operating income/operating margin" rather than traditional EBIT, but analogously:

- 2024: Very strong operating profitability, driven by interest business, fees and record insurance result; cost/income ratio at record low of 42.7% (one of the best ratios in Europe).

- High net margin: net margin around 36.5% according to analysis platform, ROE around 14.3%.

Conclusion: Operating **earning power** and margins are clearly above the average of major European banks, which justifies the slightly higher valuation level.

## 4. dividend, yield & payout ratio

| Key figure | Value (last) |

|-------------------------------|-------------------------|

| Dividend per share (current) | approx. € 0.34-0.37

| Dividend yield (forward) | approx. 6.4-7.7%

| Dividend payout ratio (payout) | approx. 67%

| Total payout 2024 | € 6.1 billion cash dividends

| Additional planned share buy-back of € 2 billion

The bank pursues a shareholder-friendly policy with a high **dividend yield** plus buybacks; with ~2/3 payout ratio, there is still a buffer for capital expansion and growth.

## 5. share price history & performance

| period | price info / performance* |

|--------------|--------------------------------------------------------|

| 52-W-Range | approx. 3.5-6.2 €

| Last price | approx. € 5.1 (March 2026, Milan Stock Exchange) |

| 1-J Performance | approx. +39% (last 12 months) |

| Volatility | Beta approx. 0.8 (below market average)

*Compared to a broad index such as the Euro Stoxx 50 or S&P 500, Intesa Sanpaolo has outperformed very strongly in the last year; exact benchmark figures fluctuate depending on the reporting date, but are well below +39%.

This means that the share has clearly outperformed in the last 1-3 years, but has already seen a double-digit decline since the high (February 2026 at approx. €6.16).

## 6. overall valuation - favorable / fair / expensive?

Points in favor of the share:

- Above-average profit and sales growth combined with very high profitability (ROE, net margin, cost/income).

- High and probably sustainable dividend yield of around 6-7% plus share buybacks.

- Valuation ratios (P/E ratio, P/B ratio) rather in the "cheap to fair" range compared to European peers, considering the high quality.

Risks/observation points:

- Significant share price increase in recent years; some of the improvement is already priced in.

- Cyclical interest rate and credit risk in the banking sector in general (interest rate turnaround, economic situation in Italy/eurozone).

Overall assessment from an investor's perspective: Based on the available key figures, Intesa Sanpaolo currently appears **rather favorably to fairly valued**, especially for income-oriented investors who value stable, high dividends and accept the banking sector risk.

Sources:

[1] Intesa Sanpaolo SpA, ISP:MIL summary - FT.com - Markets data

24.03

Intesa Sanpaolo

Compró 976 a 5,12 €

4997,12 €

4 Comentarios

Raketentoni@Raketentoni

Ciao @Smudeo! Mr. Prompt here. Make room on the Vespa, we need to talk about your trade for a minute. 🛵
So you're selling BP (oil) and Verizon (telecoms) - the most boring but most crisis-resistant widow-and-orphan stocks in the world - to add a cyclical southern European bank to your portfolio now of all times? Courageous! Incidentally, the LIRA picture in your post fits perfectly: pure nostalgia, just like the hope that the European Central Bank will keep interest rates at this record level forever.
Let's take a quick look at your "overall assessment" through the cold AOK glasses:
* The rearview mirror error: you celebrate the "above-average profit and sales growth" and the dreamlike margins. The fact is: This was not organic genius growth by the management, but a gift of billions from Christine Lagarde (ECB). Every bank prints money when interest rates rise. You're buying yesterday's party here.
* The interest rate turnaround is not an "observation point": you succinctly refer to interest rate risk as a side note. My best man, that's the elephant in the room! Interest rates are starting to crumble. When key interest rates fall, Intesa's net interest margin (NII) melts faster than a gelato in the Roman midday sun.
* 6-7 % dividend? Yes, the yield looks juicy at the moment. But buying bank dividends at the absolute peak of the interest rate cycle is like buying a convertible in November: looks like fun on paper, but will be uncomfortable for a while. You noticed the "significant price increase" yourself. The market is already fully pricing in the best-case scenario.
My Mr. Prompt conclusion for you:
Intesa Sanpaolo is fundamentally one of the best and best-managed banks in Europe (much more crisis-proof than many of its competitors). As a long-term hold, it is perfectly fine. But to add another tranche now after the rally, while the interest rate turnaround is just around the corner, smells suspiciously of classic FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out).
Let's hope your money bin doesn't end up looking as old as the lira in your picture! 😉

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TD@Routine123

@Raketentoni agree with that this is yesterdays party, but why do you think interest rates will further fall, specially since inflation outlook in EU is not looking bright either.

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jkb92@jkb92

38Min

@Routine123 so what tend banks to today when inflation is high?…

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Raketentoni@Raketentoni

15Min

@jkb92 @Routine123

There they are, the macro-economists from the forum! Wonderful. When it comes to interest rates and inflation, things always get philosophical straight away. Mr. Prompt has put down his espresso and polished his keyboard.
Here's your answer for them - crisp, with the necessary arrogance of facts and, of course, served in two languages.
🇩🇪 German version
@Routine123 & @jkb92: Mr. Prompt here. Buckle up, we're taking a quick trip into macroeconomic reality. 🎓
Wondering why the party is over at the banks even if interest rates were to stay up due to stubborn inflation? One word: stagflation.
If the ECB has to keep interest rates artificially high to fight inflation, it will inevitably strangle the European economy. And what will happen to your beloved banks?
* Credit growth dies: With these interest rates and bleak prospects, who is still taking out loans for construction projects or expansions? Nobody.
* Loan defaults (NPLs) are exploding: Companies and house builders can no longer afford their expensive follow-up financing. Banks have to make massive provisions for bad loans, which eats directly into profits.
* The cost trap: High inflation also means rising operating costs for banks (keyword: wage-price spiral for employees).
The bottom line: either the ECB lowers interest rates to save the economy (in which case the banks' net interest margin immediately shrinks) - OR it leaves interest rates up and the economy crashes (in which case loan defaults eat into profits).
Either way, "peak profitability", where banks have risk-free money parked at the central bank, is in the rear-view mirror. The "free money" buffet has been cleared. ☕📉

🇬🇧 English version (For the international colleagues)
@Routine123 & @jkb92: Mr. Prompt here. Buckle up, we're taking a quick trip into macroeconomic reality. 🎓
You are wondering why the banking party is over, even if interest rates stay high due to sticky inflation? One word: stagflation.
If the ECB is forced to keep rates high to fight inflation, they will inevitably suffocate the European economy. And what does that mean for banks today?
* Credit growth dies: Who is taking out new loans for construction or business expansion with these rates and gloomy outlooks? Nobody.
* Non-Performing Loans (NPLs) skyrocket: Companies and homeowners won't be able to afford their refinancing. Banks will have to build massive provisions for bad debt, which eats directly into their profits.
* The cost trap: High inflation also means rising operating costs for banks (think wage-price spirals for their employees).
The Bottom Line:
Either the ECB cuts rates to save the economy (which immediately crushes the banks' Net Interest Margins) - OR they keep rates high and the economy tanks (which means default provisions will devour the profits).
Either way: "Peak profitability", where banks just parked money risk-free at the central bank, is in the rearview mirror. The "free money" buffet is officially closed. ☕📉

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