The regulatory hurdles can be overcome. The market assessment should focus more on the operational execution of the integration. This offers opportunities for investors.

Article from FuW, supplemented by own commentary at the end.

The price targets for $UBSG (+1,6 %) drift far apart. The Analysten kommen auf keinen gemeinsamen Nennerhow the major Swiss bank can be reasonably valued. The pessimists see lows of close to CHF 20, while the optimists expect almost double that. This is mainly due to the differing expectations regarding the bank's future capital requirements.

Also im Aktienkurs spiegelt sich diese Unsicherheit. And this has been the case for April des letzten Jahres. The Federal Council then presented its regulatory plans to the public for the first time. A concrete figure followed in June of this year: 26 Mrd. $, so viel Kapital soll UBS aufbauen, to become crisis-proof. The proposal still has to go through parliament. There will be no final clarity until 2028.

Convincing implementation strength

The market is currently pricing in a high probability of a negative outcome on the regulatory front. This is indicated by the current valuation with a price-to-book ratio (P/B) of around 1.1. Compared to the closest comparable value, the valuation discount is more than 50%: The major US bank Morgan Stanley ($MS (+1,24 %) ) is trading at a P/B ratio of over 2.3. In Europe, the most profitable major banks such as Nordea ($NDA FI (+0,9 %) ), UniCredit ($UCG (+1,31 %) ) and Intesa Sanpaolo ($ISP (+1,44 %) ) are trading at 1.5, 1.4 and 1.3 respectively.

The uncertainty discount for UBS is too large. The integration of Credit Suisse is on track and value is being released on an ongoing basis. The progress already made is still not being sufficiently rewarded by the market. So far, management has been able to keep or exceed its promises. The strength of implementation is convincing. Cost synergies are being realized faster than planned, the Non-Core and Legacy unit is being efficiently wound down and the core businesses, such as Global Wealth Management, are flourishing.

For the courageous investor, the undervaluation is an opportunity. It opens up an attractive entry point, especially if you put the current share price in relation to the expected earnings per share for the future, before a Neubewertung nach Abschluss der Integration follows. This should be achieved by the end of 2026.

Titan is in the making

The UBS share now offers investors an asymmetrical risk/reward profile: the upside potential if the integration succeeds appears to be significantly greater than the downside risk. In terms of regulation, the worst-case scenario is known. Things can only get better for the big bank in the political process.

While waiting for clarification on the regulatory issue, the market should focus on the operational execution of the integration. UBS is forging a global champion - a titan is in the making. The bank's next quarterly reports will provide important clues on profitability and net new money. How it weiterhin Aktionärswert schaffen wants, UBS could communicate.

-------

Own opinion:

I hold $UBSG (+1,6 %) mainly because of the solid dividend policy, which is targeted in the medium term, and the general confidence in the Swiss financial center. There is enough time until 2028 not only to digest the regulatory requirements, but also to support them politically. In my opinion, the market is currently underestimating how much scope there is for strategic fine-tuning and targeted lobbying during this period.

As long as the integration continues as before in operational terms, I believe the potential for setbacks is limited - and investors' patience could pay off. In addition, I am in personal contact with a person who is involved in the integration and reports more success than failure. If the spin-off of the small loan business (consumer credit) is also successful, this will also free up short-term capital.

I hold - 674 shares at an average price of CHF 14.01.

------

The Bank BNP Paribas yesterday published its legendary dividend book for the second half of the year.

Ten European stocks were selected and placed on a list called "Best Ideas". All of these stocks have a pretty convincing track record.

What makes a really good dividend stock for BNP? Stable distributions over at least ten years, sustainable dividend growth and a strong free cash flow. In addition, there are qualitative criteria such as reasonable payout ratios, earnings momentum and rapid price recovery after the dividend discount.

Aegon
$AGN (+1,06 %) is a Dutch insurer with a focus on the US market. Dividend yield: 6.8 percent. Added to this is the fantasy of possible deals and greater capital efficiency.

Arkema
$AKE (+1,92 %) is a French specialty chemicals group with a yield of 5.7 percent. It is a spin-off from the chemicals business of the oil company Total. Arkema is one of the leading suppliers of highly developed materials.

Bankinter $BKT (+0,63 %) is a top Spanish address for wealthy clients. The bank has a solid balance sheet and offers a yield of 5.1 percent - although business is being held back slightly by the prospect of falling key interest rates.

Aéroports de Paris
$ADP (-0,13 %) is - as the name suggests - the operator of the Paris airports. Here, investors receive a yield of 3.4 percent, and there is also great rebound potential due to growing air traffic and an exciting investment in GMR in India.

Inditex
$ITX (+1,17 %) is the Zara-parent company. The company impresses with a 3.6% return, but above all with a strong cash flow thanks to falling logistics costs and global expansion.

Intesa Sanpaolo
$ISP (+1,44 %) is Italy's largest financial institution and offers a 7.9 percent dividend. A large part of its success comes from stable segments such as asset management.

Munich Re
$MUV2 (-6,48 %) is one of the stocks from Germany. The reinsurance classic offers investors a yield of 4.2 percent. The company has an enormously strong balance sheet and is a real all-purpose portfolio weapon.

National Grid
$NG. (+0 %) is an electricity and gas provider from the UK that pays a dividend of 4.5 percent. The company is strong on the energy transition and is well hedged against inflation.

Publicis
$PUB (-0,55 %) is France's advertising giant with data-driven advertising and pays a dividend of 3.9 percent. The company is also strongly positioned in the field of artificial intelligence.

The last stock to round off Volkswagen
$VOW (+1,72 %) rounds off the list. The car manufacturer offers a full six percent yield. The partnership with Rivian
$RIVN (-0,97 %) is also beginning to generate imagination.

All ten stocks combine above-average dividend yields with reasonable valuations. The average price/earnings ratio (P/E) is around 10, and all companies are well capitalized.

BNP speaks of a "quality-driven dividend portfolio" - so it's not about bargain hunting. For those who prefer a broader approach, there is of course also the dividend ETF Amundi MSCI Europe High Dividend Factor ETF EUR $CD9 (-0,15 %)

Source & picture: "Welt", 02.07.25

Hi all guys!!!

I would like to share with you my ideal portfolio allocation, as read from the title it is still a work in progress, I am slowly adding positions as opportunities arise.

A little context: I am 24 years old, a final year medical student, and I am slowly putting money aside that I can invest both through my part time job (preparing for the medical test and tutoring for first year exams) and through the savings I already had set aside. The platform I currently use to invest is Directa.

Let's say that my goal at the moment is to reach over the years an invested amount of 50k euros in ETFs and distribution stocks, ideally distributed as follows:

CORE

-30k in growth-oriented developed markets etf (10k/30k)

Those selected are. $FGEQ (+0,83 %) (10k/10k) , $TDIV (+0,14 %) (0k/10k) and $HMWO (+0,49 %) (0k/10k), so as to have income every month, as they distribute alternately;

SATELLITE

-5k in emerging markets etf (0k/5k)

I chose $IEEM (-0,24 %) to diversify;

-5k in high-distribution etf (2.5k/5k)

In this category I own. $VHYL (+0,38 %) ;

-5k in active option-based etf (5k/5k)

Here I have already completed my position in $JEGP (+0,35 %) , which by the way distributes monthly ;

-5k in single Italian stocks (0k/5k)

In this category I have already selected some of the possible additions, such as. $PST (+0,18 %) , $ISP (+1,44 %) e $TRN (-0,87 %) , but at the moment the prices are too high and I am not willing to buy now;

Considerations and Strategy Explanation: I start by saying that I know that at my age it would be better to buy accumulation instruments for the best taxation and growth over time, but personally the idea of receiving a monthly cash flow (albeit still small) without having to do anything at all has an important psychological impact, and seeing it grow slowly gives me a lot of satisfaction and motivates me to continue on this path. I started immediately by positioning myself on high-dividend etfs such as $JEGP (+0,35 %) e $VHYL (+0,38 %) so that I already had a small boost in the strategy; I hoarded $FGEQ (+0,83 %) during the first week of April by taking advantage of the flash crash that took place, and now I am accumulating liquidity in anticipation of another possible reversal: ideally the next move will be to start accumulating shares of $TDIV (+0,14 %) to diversify in currency as well: last note, the etfs chosen are also from different issuers so as to diversify in this aspect as well.

Let me know what you think!

$ISP (+1,44 %) How do you handle this at Intesa Sanpaolo?

Almost three-quarters of all DAX and MDAX companies pay out dividends in May.

Dividend calendar with payday and expected yield:

This year's dividend champion is likely to be $RTLL (+1,52 %) - RTL Group. Shareholders can expect a yield of around 8%. However, this is only half as high as three years ago.

Deutsche Telekom is now increasingly seen as a dividend pearl. $DTE (-1,39 %) - Deutsche Telekom is increasingly seen as a dividend pearl. This year's dividend is EUR 0.90, i.e. an increase of 17% on the previous year, with a yield of around 2.7%.

Other reliable payers are $SIE (+2,44 %) - Siemens and $SAP (-1,39 %) - SAP.

One of the most reliable payers of all is $MUV2 (-6,48 %) - Munich Re. There has never been a dividend shortfall since 1960 and the amount paid per share has increased sixteen-fold since the beginning of the millennium.

There are also some attractive dividend payers in Europe, such as $ENI (+0,39 %) - ENI and $ISP (+1,44 %) - Intensa and $BNP (+1,76 %) - BNP.

Source (excerpt) / graphics: WELT

I recently noticed a share that on the one hand had a 65% price increase in the last 18 months (I think that's good for a boring bank share) and on the other hand offers a dividend yield of around 8%. It is the $ISP (+1,44 %) ! Has anyone else looked into it and has an opinion on it?

Hello everyone,

At the end of last year, I published my "top picks list" here, in which I presented the stocks that I have put on my watchlist for 2024 and am also partially invested in (unfortunately not in all of them 😁).

At the time, I had compiled a list of stocks recommended by well-known analysts and put them through "my requirements profile". The original 100 stock ideas then became the list below. A year later, I'm looking back. This was the performance:

🟢 $TMUS (+1,6 %) +1,63%

🟢 Sterling Infrastructure: +100.68%

🟢 $CRM (+0 %) Salesforce: +28.14%

🟢 $RR. (-0,95 %) Rolls-Royce: +92.56%

🟢 $MOD (+0,56 %) Modine Manufacturing: +98.68%

🟠 $MHO (+0,84 %) M/I Homes: -1.46%

🟢 $META (-0,1 %) Meta: +68.52%

🟢 $MCD (-0,82 %) McDonalds: +0.14%

🟢 $MA (+1,62 %) Mastercard: +26.26%

🟢 $ISP (+1,44 %) Intesa Sanpaolo: +45.44%

🟢 $ISRG (+0,82 %) Intuitive Surgical: +59.62%

🟠 $GCT Gigacloud Technologies: -0.66%

🟢 $FDX (+1,8 %) FedEx: +11.11%

🟠 $LPG (+1,15 %) Dorian LPG: -47.70%

🟢 $COST (+0,58 %) Costco: +43.34%

🟢 $US1011372067 Boston Scientific: +63.23%

🟢 $BKNG (-0,9 %) Booking: +44.19%

🟠 $ABX Barrick Gold: -14.73%

🟢 $APP (+3,89 %) Applovin: +753.81%

🟢 $GOOG (+2,11 %) Alphabet: +39.28%

🟢 $AMZN (-0,32 %) Amazon: +48,05%

🟢 $ANF (-0,41 %) Abercrombie & Fitch: +69.99%

As you can see, my stock ideas have done quite well. $APP (+3,89 %) with +753.81% was of course a big hit. $DORIAN With -47.70% it was a pipe-dropper.

🔥 I'm currently working on my top picks list for 2025. If you're interested, I'll be happy to share it again and put it up for discussion!

💬 What were your top picks in 2024? And what were the losers? I will reply to every comment and give you a brief assessment.

#stockanalysis
#watchlist