1D·

5 years on the stock market: from market timing to rational buy-and-hold with a touch of momentum 🚀

Hello everyone,


It's hard to believe, but my journey on the stock market began in January 2021 - that means I'm celebrating my 5th anniversary! Behind me lies an extremely instructive time in which I (like so many others) have learned a lot. Today I would like to share my learnings and my new setup for 2026 with you.


1. my mistakes: the hunt for perfect timing


My history includes countless purchases and sales. My biggest mistake? I tried to time the market. Unfortunately, the result was classic: often getting in at the wrong time and - even worse - selling out of impatience or panic, only to watch the stock take off shortly afterwards. Unfortunately, the bottom line for me was that individual share trading was not successful.


2 The new portfolio: Focus & Structure

I made a radical change. Away from the hectic back-and-forth and towards a solid foundation.

My core now consists of buy-and-hold ETFs:

- $VWCE (+0,1 %) (Vanguard FTSE All-World)

- $TDIV (+0,16 %) (VanEck Developed Markets Dividend)

- $EIMI (+1,15 %) (iShares Emerging Markets IMI)


Supplements:


Cryptos: Continue to have a large weighting in BTC.


Precious metals: Just under 5-7% in gold and silver as an anchor.


Berkshire Hathaway: My only "single share" to reduce my remaining share loss pot of around €1,000 in a tax-efficient way.


Momentum strategy: I am fascinated by the model of @Epi. The first tranche is in place, another €4,000 is ready at Smartbroker+. As February and September are statistically often weaker months, I plan to use the next setback in February to make a further entry. A small portion may also be transferred to @Krush82 's Wikifolio.


3. psychology: the problem with loss aversion


Loss aversion is a term that has influenced me a lot in recent years. In psychology, this describes the tendency for us to perceive losses much more painfully than gains of the same size make us happy.


This is precisely my problem: although I know rationally that I am investing for the long term, sideways phases or red days have far too strong a mental impact on me. I look at my portfolio too often - even if I don't change anything - and let it spoil my mood. My goal for 2026: Less screen time, more trust in the process. Rationally, I don't care about the short-term noise, and I need to work on that.


4. my savings plan setup

To take out the emotions, I automate everything:

- Weekly: 300€ VWCE | 30€ TDIV | 20€ EIMI | 20€ BTC

- Every 2 months: 100€ gold | 75€ silver


I also treat myself to a small "gambling portfolio" (€4,000) for high-risk stocks. The motto here is clear: either a total loss in 5-10 years or the next tenbagger. This keeps the gambling instinct away from the main portfolio.


How do you deal with daily volatility?


Do you also have strategies to beat the "app addiction" in bad market phases?


I look forward to your feedback! 📈

8Puestos
130.344,90 €
29,66 %
37
24 Comentarios

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I'm glad you've found a way for yourself. But it's certainly not over yet. 👍

But don't overestimate the timing possibilities with 3xGTAA. The model invests in different asset classes, all of which have their own annual cycles. I myself tried it with timing the Wikifolio purchases and similar thoughts to yours, but gave up in the end. Don't fall into the same trap as with individual stocks. 😬
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@Epi You're right. I will probably just shoot it into the market to achieve the right weighting for the time being.

Because the three assets are also uncorrelated, the wikifolio is also very stable (e.g. currently gold, Nasdaq, Euro Stocks) only in a few cases since I have been monitoring your certificate have they all fallen at the same time.
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@AxoWallStreet Exactly, that is one of the basic ideas of the model architecture: the uncorrelated asset classes lower the vola, which is then raised again with leverage in order to squeeze the additional return out of the momentum effect. 😁
2
@Epi it is probably tradable at smartbroker is it also possible to order this monthly or are the fees too high?
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@1aDNA With Smartbroker+ the Wikifolio is not eligible for a savings plan. The fees per trade are €4 regardless of the volume.
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@1aDNA SB+ does not offer a savings plan for the certificate. I think they only do that from a certain investment amount. So if 3xGTAA has a volume of 3-4 million, it could become interesting as a savings plan offer. But that is likely to take some time, 2027 at the earliest.
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So it makes more sense for me as a newcomer and against the set to buy most here in a slightly larger volume once so for me 1000 euros are already a lot of money
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@1aDNA Yes, I would say €1000 is the minimum for the certificate. 4€ order fee for K+VK is already almost 1%. If necessary, just buy every 2-3 months when the money is together. 🤷
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Thank you as I am still quite new I am grateful for any tips
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Does anyone have a ref link for the Smart +?
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@1aDNA if you like, you can use mine or another person you want to support.

Start now with Smartbroker+ and get a €50 bonus! Simply use my personal referral link: https://www.smartbrokerplus.de/de-de/freunde-werben/?pid=User_invite&c=refer_a_friend&cr_id=3e42aa286e847f4a5b1395d956c510ee2c269bc930ea6bd40dc6f6fb54df1ea8

Have fun trading!
Ver todas las 8 respuestas adicionales
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A convincing strategy 👍🏽. And I also consistently follow the 2-depot model!
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It all sounds reasonable.

And yes, I know all about "watching far too often". You're not doing yourself or your nerves any favors. Let's see if I can do better this year.

I wish you every success.
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Solid portfolio 👍
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In weak market phases you get more for your savings plan. It's like after the rain comes the sun. After all these years, I can actually deal with bad phases better than the good ones. Security is sometimes deceptive and the future is uncertain. Bad phases also show how good you really were
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Everything done right! 👍🏼 Keep up the good work!
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