1Lun·

+++Why is Nvidia investing in Intel?+++

My thesis:

In a Taiwan/China conflict, Trump would never support Taiwan and therefore $2330 (TSMC) would be doomed, which is why the government recently invested $9 billion in $INTC (-7,3 %) invested. In addition, Trump could have put pressure on Nvidia to have a chip manufacturer in the USA, which is why $NVDA (+2,31 %) is now also investing $5 billion.

See Trump's contribution:

If it's a security play, Intel could be exciting if the investments are sustainable...

How do you see Intel? I'm staying on the sidelines as the company now has to develop with the money and show whether it can achieve the turnaround.

5 Comentarios

Chris@Multibagger

1Lun

What I find most interesting is that the government got 15% for 9 billion and $NVDA just 4% for 5 billion. You can work out the increase in value of the government's stake after the share price rise. It's almost as good as mine.😂😎

•

Epi@Epi

1Lun

Basically, I would share your geopolitical assessment of Intel.

But I don't think the USA would ever support Taiwan. The focus on the future war with China is the reason why Europe alone should take care of Putin. China has simply become too strong. And if it were clear that Taiwan would not be supported, then China would have been in there long ago. But Taiwan is too important to the USA geopolitically and economically.

Incidentally, Taiwan has a kill switch for its semiconductor industry. In other words, if China enters Taiwan, the chip factories are rendered unusable. This is official and is intended to prevent China from invading.

But as soon as China itself has the factories and the know-how, this will no longer be an obstacle. Until then (2028-29), the USA must become independent of TSMC. Hence the Intel deal. 🥶

•

Danone1986@Danone1986

1Lun

@Epi none of this sounds impossible or unrealistic. Why are you throwing 28/29 into the room?

••

Epi@Epi

1Lun

@Danone1986 28/29 is considered by the military to be a realistic date for a Russian attack on NATO territory. By then, the Chinese and Russian arms industries will be in full swing (e.g. Russia will be able to produce approx. 10,000-20,000 drones per month).

In addition, there are elections in the USA and Germany at the turn of the year - classic times of low decision-making in politics. And it looks like Trump is likely to attempt a coup. What was somewhat wild in 2021 is likely to be better organized next time. The National Guard is already being brought into line.

And what better time to (synchronously) attack Taiwan and the Baltic states than when the West is tearing itself apart?

Therefore 28/29. 🤷

••

market_maestro_2368@market_maestro_2368

1Lun

@Epi My investments in certain companies and funds would be happy, but they would not compensate for the losses in all other areas.

Why would China and Russia start World War 3?
Personally, I think that's exaggerated and unrealistic, if only because nuclear armies would be facing each other. So, in my opinion, that is not realistic.

Now to NVIDIA, Intel and AMD.
They are benefiting incredibly from the hype and will soon reach the limits of their growth.
China, with its incredible speed of innovation, will be the final opponent. It will be similar to the automotive industry. At some point, they will no longer be running behind, but will come up with something of their own.

So the party will end, but it is not yet possible to say exactly when. It could be tomorrow, next week or in five years' time. But it will come at some point.

And to avoid having to give up all my profits, I will liquidate NVIDIA in the near future, start crying about the taxes that will then be due, and invest the liquid assets in an ETF.
And I still have to work out exactly what to invest in.

••