1D·

Temporary savings plan changes - 3-4 months full offensive

Hello lovelies,

This year I'm going to restructure my portfolio, which is currently still quite defensive. I'm using my savings installment of €1,000 to go on the offensive over the next few months.

I'm currently incredibly well on track with my goal of € 100,000 by 2030. Certainly also because the target no longer seems so ambitious with my current savings rate and additional deposits. But let's be honest: I started in 2024 and my savings rate back then was €300. It's crazy what changes when you crack a few goals and how the focus shifts. I think the real driver was the first €10,000 in my TradeRepublic account - that had a big psychological impact.

Of course, a plan is always important when it comes to goals. I would like to briefly share the next step for my portfolio and its implementation with you.

Next Step:

Expand crypto to 10 % (currently 2 %)

Weighting $BTC (-0,49 %) 80%, $ETH (+0,11 %) 10%, $SOL (-1,15 %) 10%

Implementation:

I am using the current market phase to massively ignite the turbo for the following years in an anti-cyclical manner. In my current savings plan, everything except for the $CSNDX (+0,49 %) -position, everything is being canceled/paused. This is the plan for the next 4 months or so:

$BTC (-0,49 %) 600,- €

$CSNDX (+0,49 %) 200,- €

$ETH (+0,11 %) 100,- €

$SOL (-1,15 %) 100,- €

I will use this to make the € 1,000 offensive until around May. In addition, there will be a one-off payment of around €5,000 in April. This will also flow exclusively into offensive positions before I return to my standard mix of tech, dividend stocks and crypto.

Why now?

I'm a fan of dividend stocks & turnaround stories - I currently have around 70% of my portfolio in them. Simply because this 'you'll get something back here' psychology motivates me massively and keeps me happy.

These stocks have recently shown relative strength, while tech and software have corrected (sector rotation). As I like to trade anti-cyclically, I am now going into these punished stocks. Crypto in particular is currently offering such attractive buy prices. And let's be honest: with a long-term position, it almost doesn't matter whether the Bitcoin is collected at USD 60k or USD 45k - the savings plan over the years takes care of that.

Quick context (before you warn me): I am deliberately taking a risk with this savings plan for 3-4 months. My aim is to use the current correction ('crypto winter') to push down my entry price and quickly reach my desired 10% crypto weighting in the overall portfolio.

I can cope well with the volatility, as my existing portfolio (Unilever, dividend ETFs, etc.) is around 70% defensive and serves as a stable anchor.

What do you think of the sprint? What does your weighting look like - get out there!

31 Comentarios

Eddy@ZPark91

23H

I have also canceled all my savings plans and am going fully into Bitcoin for the next 4 months. The timing seems ideal for me to increase my desired weighting in the portfolio (currently my share is around 4%). The world belongs to the brave 😁

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Nuqqx@Nuqqx

23H

@ZPark91 In my opinion, this is exactly the right move and sufficient diversification limits the risk extremely!

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Krush82@Krush82

22H

@Nuqqx Sufficient diversification not only limits the risk but also the return 😉

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Nuqqx@Nuqqx

21H

@Krush82 Everyone has their own risk profile and I am extremely satisfied with my returns so far ;)

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Chris@Psychedelic_Sunflower

22H

Buying mainly Bitcoin for the next few months is a good idea. That's what I'm doing, as I rebalance monthly via the savings rate and the money always flows into the assets/strategies that are furthest below the target allocation.

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Smudo@Smudeo

23H

In your quote:
Dividend fan and turnaround
But this time you are only going for turnaround as none of your stocks pay dividends.
I think it's brave, but too risky for me except for the ETF Nasdaq.
Good luck

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Nuqqx@Nuqqx

23H

@Smudeo Thank you! You're absolutely right - this time there's a 0.0% payout, but I'm fully betting on share price fantasy. 😉

That's exactly the idea: my 'dividend machine' is already in place (that's the defensive 70% in the portfolio). This sprint now serves purely to give the portfolio the growth kick that Unilever & Co. naturally lack. So I see 'turnaround' here more in terms of the market cycle (out of the crypto winter). But I fully understand that this is not everyone's risk profile!

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Kurz@MrKurt89

23H

@Smudeo Totally agree with Smudo

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Jimmy@monkey_gambler

23H

No one in the world will be able to tell you whether this will work or not. "Going on the offensive" means nothing other than higher risk for potentially higher returns. It depends entirely on your risk appetite.

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Kate🦋@Iwamoto

23H

Please be careful posts about tactical savings plans don't go down well here 😔

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Nuqqx@Nuqqx

23H

@Iwamoto it's best to keep the posts short, I've often noticed that people just don't read properly 😵‍💫
In the end you only share one thought, I don't make my actions dependent on this community, I'm only interested in exchange and I recommend that to you too 🫡

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Kate🦋@Iwamoto

22H

@Nuqqx 😔 I was also looking for a constructive exchange, but instead I got reproaches thrown at my head

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Nuqqx@Nuqqx

21H

@Iwamoto Remember: it's your portfolio, you're in control. You really shouldn't care about the opinions in the comment columns - you are acting on the basis of your own convictions and research.

I know what you mean. I also commented on your savings plan post - but that wasn't really an accusation, just well-intentioned criticism

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Kurz@MrKurt89

23H

Rule number 2: Do not change savings plans. And if you do, increase them.

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Nuqqx@Nuqqx

23H

@MrKurt89 bitcoin, Solana and Ether are in my normal savings plan and are now being increased 😉 others are being paused for this

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Kai@Dividenden-Sammler

21H

@Nuqqx I think @MrKurt89 meant exactly that by change, i.e. delete/pause/reduce.

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Nuqqx@Nuqqx

20H

@Dividenden-Sammler But it's not right. I don't go against all reason and go through with a savings plan just because I have set it up once, e.g. when it comes to portfolio weighting or cluster risk. I take a break of 3-4 months to create a proper weighting and the market phase is ideal for this

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Kai@Dividenden-Sammler

20H

@Nuqqx But that would be more in the direction of active trading, if you want to take advantage of current favorable times by making changes. This should not actually be the purpose of the savings plan, but rather to invest consistently over a long-term period in order to achieve a smoothing of the unit price.

Then I think if you want to act like this, your savings plan has been too high since then if you want to take advantage of such phases. Instead of a €100 savings plan, it would have made more sense to keep €50 and use the remaining €50 as a cash cushion (e.g. in a money market ETF) that you can tap into in such situations.

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Nuqqx@Nuqqx

20H

@Dividenden-Sammler I think we're talking at cross purposes here. Adjustments to the portfolio weighting have nothing to do with active trading - on the contrary, this is essential if you are thinking long-term.

My path to the first €100,000 follows a precise target allocation. If I notice that certain stocks (such as a Marubeni / $8002 ) are growing faster and other shares are becoming too small as a result, I have to take countermeasures. In this case, I do this by temporarily reallocating the savings plan ('smart rebalancing'). So I don't abandon my original plan, I just adjust it in the short term to restore my target weighting.

I do have a cash position that is intended precisely for such opportunities. However, as I don't expect to see a major turnaround in crypto in the next 6-8 months, I prefer to use the savings plan (cost average). I then prefer to save the cash for targeted, additional tranches, e.g. a big buy if bit falls to 35k-40k dollars

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Kurz@MrKurt89

14H

@Nuqqx As someone who achieved this goal some time ago, I would like to politely disagree. If you have several savings plans, it is normal for the portfolio weighting to fluctuate. Cutting winning stocks (or cryptos in your case) hurts performance in many cases. But that's just my humble opinion.

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risk_taker_2194@risk_taker_2194

22H

Bitcoin has no value. Why invest money in useless things?

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Silas@Bein-Godik

22H

@risk_taker_2194 Completely meaningless statement simply parroted. The value of an asset is what others are willing to pay

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Nuqqx@Nuqqx

21H

@Bein-Godik You will always have people like that, Bitcoin & co is just not for everyone

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risk_taker_2194@risk_taker_2194

21H

@Bein-Godik haha. That used to be called a Ponzi scheme. Burning money.

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Nuqqx@Nuqqx

21H

@risk_taker_2194 Fiat money has no value either, but you can still buy things as long as people believe in it.

Everyone should have their own opinion. But I'm not going to get into a fundamental discussion about whether crypto investments are generally sensible or not - that's not what this post is for.

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Epi@Epi

18H

Your plan is based on a few assumptions about the markets that are debatable (cyclicality, long-term uptrend, future as past, etc.).
You are just as unprepared for an "eternal crypto winter" as you are for a "20-year tech correction".
So: good luck!

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Nuqqx@Nuqqx

17H

@Epi Thanks for your feedback, I'd be happy to go into more detail about the extent to which I'm unprepared - I don't quite understand the point,

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Epi@Epi

17H

@Nuqqx Well, imagine SOL and ETH fall to 10$ and stay there. BTC forever between 1000$ and 100$. Unbelievable for you? That's what I mean!

And imagine QQQ drops 80%, stays there for 15 years and is then liquidated. Unbelievable? Exactly.

Your "aggressive" strategy is not prepared for such scenarios. 🤷

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Nuqqx@Nuqqx

17H

@Epi Justified objections for an 'all-in' strategy, but that is not the case here. This is a temporary special allocation to compensate for an underweighting in the portfolio (target: 10% crypto).

I am not blindly throwing money at it, but am now filling this pot anti-cyclically. After that, the normal allocation will take effect again. So if the 'eternal crypto winter' or the big tech correction comes, it will only affect this limited part of my portfolio, while the defensive 70% anchor will continue to run.

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Epi@Epi

16H

@Nuqqx Good, so only 30% aggressive. 😁

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Nuqqx@Nuqqx

16H

@Epi 30% offensive is my target allocation for the first 100.000 €, after that I might reconsider, but until then this target stands. All in in this savings plan is very brave, I think I can handle fluctuations well, but this savings plan 100% would be too crazy...but thanks for your input anyway!

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