For a long time, the markets for digital assets mainly moved in step with monetary policy. In particular $BTC (+1,12 %) reacted strongly to changes in interest rate expectations surrounding the US Federal Reserve. However, this pattern is beginning to change. Increasingly, geopolitical developments - particularly around the oil market - are determining the direction of global financial markets. For #bitcoin this change could even be positive.

The latest US labor market report provided an example of this. Instead of the expected 60,000 new jobs, employment fell by around 90,000. A surprise of this magnitude would have triggered a significant adjustment in interest rate expectations in the past. Although the markets initially reacted, they quickly returned to their original positioning. This indicates that investors are currently paying more attention to energy prices and geopolitical risks than to traditional macro data.

The oil price remains a key risk factor. Historically, the share of oil demand in US gross domestic product was between around one and five percent. Today, it is only just over one percent. However, the decisive factor is not the level, but the speed of the increase. In the past, rapid jumps in oil prices have often preceded periods of economic stress.

If oil remains at around USD 80 per barrel over the course of the year, the macroeconomic effect is likely to remain limited. A sustained rise towards USD 125, on the other hand, would significantly increase the risk of recession. At the same time, inflation expectations are already rising. US petrol prices have risen by around 25% since the start of the geopolitical tensions, which should soon be reflected in the inflation data.

The stability of Bitcoin is remarkable in this environment. Since the start of the geopolitical tensions, the price has risen by around ten percent, while equities have fallen and #gold moderate gains. Capital flows support this picture: investment products for digital assets have been recording net inflows for three weeks, totaling around USD 1.4 billion since the start of the crisis. #iran-crisis.

This indicates a shift in market mechanics. Traditional macro data is losing some of its influence, while geopolitical risks and energy prices are coming to the fore. In this environment, Bitcoin's role as a non-governmental asset could increasingly prove to be an advantage.

You can invest in Bitcoin via the following vehicle: $BITC (+1,68 %)

Digital asset investment products saw inflows of USD 619 million last week, indicating that the initial market reaction to the Iran crisis is supportive for this asset class. Early optimism is particularly evident, with an impressive USD 1.44 billion flowing into these products in the first three days of the week. However, investor sentiment weakened noticeably later in the week, which is reflected in outflows totaling USD 829 million on Thursday and Friday, even though the published labour market data was significantly weaker than expected. This decline in inflows indicates that investors are acting more cautiously in the short term and are taking possible economic uncertainties into account. Nevertheless, rising oil prices are offsetting potential declines in inflation that could result from the weak labor market figures, meaning that the general market optimism is not completely interrupted. Overall, capital flows show that despite geopolitical tensions and short-term volatility, an overwhelmingly positive attitude towards digital asset investment products prevails, with investors continuing to see opportunities in this emerging asset class and willing to accept the risk.

$BTC (+1,12 %)
$ETH (+3,77 %)
$SOL (+0,89 %)
$XRP (+0,94 %)

How to invest in crypto:

$BITC (+1,68 %)
$CETH (+7,75 %)
$XRRL (+4,33 %)
$SLNC (+5,66 %)

The war could give the $BTC (+1,12 %)-price for reasons that go beyond simple safe-haven demand.

Consider, for example, a scenario that now seems at least plausible: a prolonged disruption to shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, combined with rising energy prices and increasing pressure on the public finances of energy-importing countries. In such an environment, confidence in the reliability of the global financial infrastructure itself becomes a relevant variable.

2022 has shown that even the currency reserves of AAA-rated countries can be frozen overnight for political reasons. The structural characteristics of $BTC (+1,12 %) - no sovereign issuer, no counterparty and settlement that works independently of the correspondent banking infrastructure - turn from theoretical advantages to practical ones precisely when this infrastructure comes under pressure.

Gold has always reacted to such developments, which is why the price has recently risen by 3.5 percent. Increasingly #bitcoin institutional investors are taking a similar view - this week's capital inflows provide clear evidence of this. The current conflict did not create the safe haven thesis of $BTC (+1,12 %) but it has provided the clearest practical test so far in this market cycle.

$BITC (+1,68 %)

$BTC (+1,12 %) has remained remarkably stable despite the geopolitical escalation surrounding Iran. While oil prices and volatility have risen significantly and stock markets have come under pressure, Bitcoin has risen by around 7% since the start of the conflict and has stabilized above USD 70,000.

This is remarkable in that Bitcoin has historically often served as a source of liquidity for selling during geopolitical shocks at the weekend. This time the market developed differently.

One important reason lies in the market structure prior to the escalation. Over the past five months, it is estimated that large market participants ("whales") have seen net outflows of around 30 billion US dollars. As a result, many speculative exaggerations have already been flushed out of the market. Valuation and leverage indicators had normalized significantly even before the geopolitical risk increased again.

The capital flow data also confirms this development. After five weeks of ETF outflows totaling around four billion US dollars, investment products on digital assets recorded net inflows of over one billion US dollars again in the first five days of March alone. Investors are therefore not retreating, but are increasing their allocation despite the uncertainty.

However, the macroeconomic environment remains difficult. Weaker labour market data in the US, rising energy prices and persistent inflationary pressure are limiting the US Federal Reserve's scope for rapid interest rate cuts. A combination of weaker growth and stubborn inflation is a difficult environment for traditional risk investments.

For #bitcoin however, it is precisely these factors that may become more relevant. Rising government debt, energy-driven inflation and the increasing politicization of the global financial system underscore characteristics of Bitcoin such as self-custody and independence from government issuers.

A phase of consolidation remains likely in the short term. A sustained breakout above USD 72,000 would be necessary to clearly brighten the technical picture. Nevertheless, the current market phase shows that Bitcoin is increasingly being perceived less as a fragile risk asset and more as a macroeconomic hedging instrument. (Author: James Butterfill, CoinShares' Head of Research)

With the CoinShares Bitcoin ETP $BITC (+1,68 %) you can invest in Bitcoin.

In the face of escalating tensions in the Middle East, the price of oil rose by 10% and $GOLD gained 3.5%, confirming its traditional role as a safe haven - but Bitcoin is defying expectations, remaining stable and even attracting inflows. Investors appear to be using the correction as both an entry point and a hedge, pointing to a potentially growing role for cryptocurrencies in times of geopolitical uncertainty and volatile markets.

Geopolitics drives oil and gold higher

Geopolitics once again dominated the markets over the weekend after President #trump used Saturday to further escalate tensions. The withdrawal of British embassy staff from Iran had already indicated rising risks, so markets were not completely unprepared. The crucial question is not only whether the #iran can be contained, but also how quickly potential disruptions could spread. Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important energy routes. Withdrawals by insurers and visible congestion of tankers indicate that the situation is already operationally relevant and not just rhetorical. Drone activity and signals of support from Hezbollah and the Houthi militia increase the likelihood that the conflict will escalate. The 10% rise in the oil price reflects this fragility, while gold is fulfilling its traditional role as a safe haven with a gain of 3.5%.

Bitcoin defies uncertainty - inflows return

Even more remarkable is the reaction of Bitcoin. Historically, Bitcoin, as the only liquid asset that is also traded at the weekend, has usually reacted negatively in phases of forced risk reduction. This time, however, the cryptocurrency remained stable and even rose despite increasing uncertainty. The lack of significant liquidations despite rising yields and geopolitical tensions suggests that positioning is more balanced compared to previous episodes. Over the past five months, major market participants have turned over around USD 30 billion and technical and fundamental lows have already been reached. Last week, inflows returned: USD 1 billion flowed in after USD 4 billion had previously flowed out over five weeks, and a further USD 500 million was added on Monday alone. This suggests that investors see the correction as both an entry opportunity and a hedge in the current geopolitical situation.

The chart shows the intraday price development of $BTC (+1,12 %) from the start of the conflict at 6:15 GMT on February 28 to the current time, as well as the relative price performance of the Stoxx 600, illustrating the significant outperformance of Bitcoin since the outbreak of the conflict. The flat sections in the equity index reflect periods when exchanges were closed, highlighting the liquidity constraints of equities compared to continuously tradable Bitcoin.

Macroeconomics tighten financial conditions

The macroeconomic environment is making the situation even more difficult. The Producer Price Index rose by 0.5% month-on-month, above the expected 0.3%, while the core rate reached 0.8%, mainly driven by trade-related services. With energy prices now rising sharply, rate cut expectations are likely to be postponed further, tightening financial conditions compared to a few weeks ago. If energy-driven inflation delays monetary easing, traditional risk assets could come under pressure. However, if geopolitical tensions intensify and confidence in global financial and trade structures - particularly along critical routes such as the Strait of Hormuz - erodes further, scarce and non-government assets such as Bitcoin could benefit in the medium term.

Via the CoinShares Bitcoin ETP $BITC (+1,68 %) you can also invest in Bitcoin.

Investment products on digital assets recorded inflows of USD 1 billion last week, ending a five-week period of outflows that totaled USD 4 billion. From a macroeconomic perspective, it is difficult to attribute the change in sentiment to a single trigger. However, the previously weak price performance, the break of important technical support levels and renewed accumulation by large $BTC (+1,12 %)-holders are likely to have contributed to the trend reversal. Anecdotally, it can also be observed that recent client discussions are almost exclusively about attractive entry levels and no longer about reducing the allocation to this asset class.

Bitcoin was the main beneficiary, attracting USD 881 million. At the same time, inflows into short Bitcoin products amounting to USD 3.7 million illustrate that opinions continue to diverge. Ethereum also saw inflows totaling USD 117 million - the highest since mid-January. Both $ETH (+3,77 %) and #bitcoin are still net negative since the beginning of the year.

$SOL (+0,89 %) In contrast, inflows of USD 53.8 million were recorded last week and total USD 156 million since the start of the year. At $LINK (+2,08 %) (Chainlink) saw inflows of a moderate USD 3.4 million, while there were no significant outflows.

You can invest in Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana and Chainlink via the following vehicles:

$BITC (+1,68 %)
$CETH (+7,75 %)
$SLNC (+5,66 %)
$CCHA (+6,05 %)

Digital assets remain in consolidation. $BTC (+1,12 %) has been fluctuating between USD 67,000 and 70,000 for weeks, while major market participants continue to sell: an estimated USD 30 billion has flowed out of so-called whales since October 2025. At 64%, their share of exchange deposits is at its highest level since 2015 - a clear supply overhang.

Macroeconomic headwinds also remain: a more restrictive tone from the US Federal Reserve and dampened expectations of interest rate cuts are putting pressure on risk appetite. Spot Bitcoin and $ETH (+3,77 %)-ETFs recorded outflows of USD 4.3 billion for five weeks in a row.

And yet: the first signs of a bottom are becoming visible. Bitcoin's relative strength index fell to 16 - historically an extreme value in oversold territory. Leverage ratios have fallen significantly, valuation ratios are normalizing and inflows of around USD 1 billion have returned for the first time this week.

The environment remains fragile in the short term. But structurally, the conditions for the next phase of expansion could slowly emerge. (Text by James Butterfill, CoinShares' Head of Research)

$BITC (+1,68 %)
$CETH (+7,75 %)

Investment products for digital assets recorded outflows of 288 million US dollars last week. This was the fifth consecutive week of net outflows, bringing the total to USD 4.0 billion - still below the USD 6 billion reached in the same period last year. After several weeks of record activity, trading volumes in ETPs slumped significantly to USD 17 billion, the lowest level since July 2025, indicating waning investor interest.

The regional picture is divergent: In the US, outflows totaled USD 347 million, while other regions saw inflows totaling USD 59 million. This was led by Switzerland with USD 19.5 million, Canada with USD 16.8 million and Germany with USD 16.2 million.

$BTC (+1,12 %) The US dollar dominated the negative sentiment with outflows of USD 215 million, while short bitcoin products saw inflows of USD 5.5 million - the highest figure among all asset classes. $ETH (+3,77 %) The short bitcoin fund recorded outflows of USD 36.5 million, followed by multi-asset products with USD 32.5 million and $TRX (-0,48 %) (Tron) with 18.9 million US dollars. Low inflows were recorded for XRP (USD 3.5 million), $SOL (+0,89 %) (3.3 million US dollars) and $LINK (+2,08 %) (Chainlink) (USD 1.2 million), but not enough to offset the net outflows from altcoins.

$BITC (+1,68 %)
$CETH (+7,75 %)
$XRRL (+4,33 %)
$SLNC (+5,66 %)

The latest US economic data points to a clear slowdown in the economy, but without signaling a recession. Employment growth and consumption are losing momentum, while inflation continues to fall. Crucially, monetary policy remains restrictive despite initial interest rate cuts, which increases the Federal Reserve's room for maneuver for further easing. Historically, Bitcoin has reacted particularly sensitively to such phases, as falling real interest rates and an improving liquidity situation increase the attractiveness of scarce digital assets.

In the short term, however, the environment remains characterized by uncertainty. On-chain data shows renewed selling by large #bitcoin-investors, while capital flows into $BTC (+1,12 %) -ETPs have recently been mixed. This combination suggests that the markets remain susceptible to volatility. At the same time, the macroeconomic fundamentals are gradually improving: If the trend towards more moderate growth and falling inflation continues, this could have a stabilizing effect on the bitcoin price in the medium term, as developments are increasingly determined by liquidity and real interest rates.

(Text: James Butterfill, CoinShares' Head of Research)

$BITC (+1,68 %)

Can conclusions be drawn from the gold rally about $BTC (+1,12 %)
draw?

The recent rise in the price of gold is best interpreted as a signal of falling confidence in real yields, fiscal discipline and the credibility of monetary policy, rather than as a direct forecast for the price trend of $BTC (+1,12 %). It was an important component of the "devaluation trade". Historically, the strength of gold often precedes the strength of $BTC (+1,12 %) often precedes and does not coincide with it, especially in cycles where liquidity first becomes scarce and then eases again. Gold tends to move earlier as it is already embedded in portfolios as a hedge. $BTC (+1,12 %) Gold usually lags behind until liquidity conditions stabilize or political reactions set in. The more gold outperforms equities and real interest rates fall or become politically constrained, the more favorable the medium-term environment becomes for #bitcoin. In environments where #gold rises due to pure risk aversion $BTC (+1,12 %) However, despite the common narrative, gold may underperform.

Does gold benefit from the rise of the $BTC (+1,12 %)
or vice versa?

There is little evidence of a stable zero-sum relationship between the two. Gold and $BTC (+1,12 %) react to the same macroeconomic pressures rather than to each other. In times characterized by currency debasement, fiscal dominance or declining institutional credibility, both can benefit simultaneously as they are positioned as non-governmental stores of value. The rise of $BTC (+1,12 %) has not significantly affected the role of gold as a reserve currency, and gold has not limited the acceptance of $BTC (+1,12 %) gold, although in recent years we have seen investors diversify their diversification instruments by adding gold as both a $BTC (+1,12 %) as a hedge against tail risks. The difference between the two lies in liquidity preference. In acute risk aversion phases, gold is often accumulated first as it sits within existing institutional mandates and balance sheets, while $BTC (+1,12 %) tends to be sold first due to its higher volatility and leverage in the system. Over time, as stress persists and confidence in the political environment wanes, gold can attract additional capital flows that $BTC (+1,12 %) may attract additional capital flows that are already structurally captured by gold.

$BITC (+1,68 %)