$EL (-3,14 %)

Hello everyone, I have 35 Estee Lauders$EL (-3,14 %) in the portfolio and recently bought more. Am now 20% in the red? Because of the high level of debt, I am considering selling and switching to L'Oreal $OR (-1 %) and switch to L'Oreal. From the chart, Estee looks like it has greater potential, but L'Oreal is much less indebted and has cash if things get rough over the next few months/years. What do you think?

Last year was a complete success for many investors - but not for everyone. While the S&P 500 rose by around 25 %, there were also shares that took a nosedive. 🤔

The biggest losers included companies such as Celanese Corp. $CE (-1,75 %), which fell by 19.25 %, and Estée Lauder ($EL (-3,14 %)which lost 1.45 %. Intel $INTC (-4,15 %) and Moderna $MRNA (-5,05 %) were also under pressure.

But what does that mean? Are yesterday's flops the potential stars of tomorrow? Some analysts see recovery potential, while others point to the ongoing challenges.

What do you think? Is it worth buying into these supposed bargains now, or is staying away the better strategy? Let's discuss it! 📈💬

Insider purchases at a overview:

• MSCI $MSCI (-3,34 %) - 15% drawdown and 11% from 52-week high
• Adobe $ADBE (-2,18 %) - 33% drawdown and 26% from 52-week high
• Nike $NKE (-2,82 %) - 60% drawdown and 34% from 52-week high
• Estée Lauder $EL (-3,14 %) - 81% drawdown and 56% from 52-week high

Do you take action or do insider purchases play no role in your investment decisions?

Concrete transactions in detail (in green):

1) MSCI $MSCI (-3,34 %)

2) Adobe $ADBE (-2,18 %)

3) Nike $NKE (-2,82 %)

4) Estée Lauder $EL (-3,14 %)

$ELF (-5,2 %)

Short interest still at 12%

$ULTA (-3,55 %)
$OR (-1 %)
$EL (-3,14 %)
$MC (-1 %)

$ELF (-5,2 %)

• EPS: $0.74 (Est. $0.76) ❌
• Net Sales: $355.3M (Est. $329.67M) ✅ ; UP +31% YoY

Updated FY25 Guidance (Revised Downward):

• Net Sales: $1.30B-$1.31B (Prev. $1.315B-$1.335B) ❌
• Adjusted EBITDA: $289M-$293M (Prev. $304M-$308M) ❌
• Adjusted Net Income: $193M-$196M (Prev. $205M-$208M) ❌
• Adjusted EPS: $3.27-$3.32 (Prev. $3.47-$3.53) ❌
• Adjusted Effective Tax Rate: 19-20% (No Change) ❌

Other Key Metrics:

• Gross Margin: 71% (Est. 71.15%) ; UP +40 bps YoY
• SG&A Expenses: $218.2M (Est. $175.43M) ; UP +36.3% YoY
• Adjusted SG&A: $192.9M (54% of net sales)
• Net Income: $17.3M (Est. $44M)
• Adjusted Net Income: $43M
• Adjusted EPS: $0.74
• Adjusted EBITDA: $68.7M (Est. $72.57M) ; UP +16% YoY

Comment from the CEO and CFO:

• CEO Tarang Amin: "We continue to gain market share, with net revenue growth of 31% and market share gains of 220 basis points in the US. We see significant new territory opportunities in digital, color cosmetics, skincare and international markets."

• CFO Mandy Fields: "Given the weaker than expected trends in January, we are taking a cautious approach and lowering our outlook for the 2025 financial year."

$OR (-1 %)
$COTI (-2,7 %)
$EL (-3,14 %)
$MC (-1 %)
#earnings
#quartalszahlen

The world's population is getting older and older, an irreversible demographic change with considerable economic consequences.

This article is intended to provide investment ideas and impetus. The stocks mentioned do not, of course, constitute investment advice, but merely serve as examples of potential beneficiaries of demographic change. Historical developments are no guarantee of future returns.

The main source is the short analysis "How to invest as the global population ages" by Goldman Sachs [1], which, however, does not name any specific stocks.

I have also added additional sources and charts.

__________

🌍 Demographic change: growth and ageing of the world's population

The world's population will grow to almost 10 billion people by 2050. But it is not just the number of people that is increasing, their age structure is also changing dramatically. [2]

Increase in the older population:

• The proportion of people aged 60 and over is rising from 8% (1950) to 21.5% (2050).
• In 2050, 2.1 billion people will belong to the over-60 age group.

Source: [2]

Regional differences:

Europe & North America have the oldest populations & remain the most affected demographically.

Latin America, the Caribbean & Asia: The proportion of over-60s will more than double between 2015 and 2050, reaching around 25 %.

Africa remains the youngest region: in 2015, there were 21 countries worldwide with a birth rate of 5 children per woman, 19 of which were in Africa. However, it should be noted that current statistics from 2024 show that the birth rate per woman in Africa was already just 4.07 in 2023 and could fall to 2.79 by 2050. [3]

While industrialized countries are struggling with an ageing society, Africa remains the most dynamic and youngest region in the world. This development can also have an economic impact and open up new investment opportunities. [2]

Goldman Sachs also comments in the article with similar figures, according to which the global population is expected to increase by around 20% by 2050 and senior citizens will make up a disproportionate share. The number of people over the age of 65 is expected to double from 800 million to 1.6 billion during this period. [1]

In view of this demographic development, there are opportunities to benefit from precisely this trend. Opportunities lie in targeted investments in sectors that could benefit from the growing proportion of older people.

🚑 Healthcare: A growing market worth billions

Facts:

• In the USA, people over the age of 65 already account for 36% of healthcare expenditure, although they only make up 18% of the population. Age-related diseases such as cardiovascular disease, diabetes and neurological disorders are driving up costs. [1]
• Alzheimer's cases are even expected to double worldwide by 2050.

Possible profiteers:

Medical technology

• Medtronic ($MDT (-0,87 %) ) - (cardiac pacemakers, diabetes technology)
• Stryker ($SYK (-0,99 %) ) - (orthopaedic implants, surgical devices)
• Siemens Healthineers ($SHL (-0,49 %) ) - (imaging, diagnostics)

Pharmaceuticals

• Novo Nordisk ($NOVO B (-2,61 %) ) - (Diabetes & Obesity)
• Eli Lilly ($LLY (-3,86 %) ) - (Alzheimer's, Diabetes)
• Roche ($ROG (-1,05 %) ) - (Oncology, Diagnostics)

🏡 Senior Living & Care: Bottlenecks in nursing homes worldwide

Facts:

The UK has a shortfall of over 30,000 senior units by 2028. [1]

In Germany, France and Italy there is a shortage of nursing home places due to the ageing population. [1]

In the US, only 2% of people over 65 live in nursing homes, leading to an increasing demand for home care and telemedicine. [1]

Potential beneficiaries:

Care providers

• Brookdale Senior Living ($BKD (+1,36 %) ) - (senior living, care facilities)

Homecare

• ResMed ($RMD (-2 %) ) - (sleep apnea, ventilators)
• Fresenius Medical Care ($FME (-1,8 %) ) - (dialysis, home therapy)
• Coloplast ($COLO B (-0,31 %) ) - (ostomy care, incontinence products)

Telemedicine

• Teladoc Health ($TDOC (-3,84 %) ) - (virtual doctor visits, digital health solutions)
• Hims & Hers ($HIMS (-9,41 %) ) - (telemedicine & e-health)

Anti-Aging

• L'Oréal ($OR (-1 %) ) - (skin care, cosmetics)
• Estee Lauder ($EL (-3,14 %) ) - (luxury cosmetics, skin rejuvenation)
• Revance Therapeutics ($RVNC ) - (Botox alternative, wrinkle treatment)

🚢 Leisure & consumption: The new "silver economy"

The following chart shows the distribution of wealth in Germany depending on the age of the main income earner. [4]

It is clear that older people tend to have higher wealth than younger age groups. This is reflected in the significantly higher values for the percentiles for age groups aged 50 and over. In particular, the groups aged between 50 and 74 have the highest assets.

The trends are also similar internationally:

• The wealth of older people is 3x that of millennials.
• Over-60s control more than 50% of consumer spending in many developed countries.
• The global silver economy could reach a volume of USD 15 trillion by 2030 (Oxford Economics).

This observation underlines the economic importance of the older generations and their central role in wealth distribution and consumer spending.

Possible beneficiaries:

Luxury

• LVMH ($MC (-1 %) ) - (fashion, jewelry, wine & spirits)
• Hermès ($RMS (-0,32 %) ) - (Exclusive Fashion & Accessories)
• Richemont ($CFR (-0,52 %) ) - (Swiss luxury watches & jewelry)

Cruise (Over 60s book a third of all cruises worldwide [1])

• Royal Caribbean ($RCL (-2,88 %) ) - (Cruises for seniors & families)
• Carnival ($CCL (-1,64 %) ) - (mass market cruises)
• Norwegian Cruise Line ($NCLH (-2,18 %) ) - (premium cruises)

Motorhome manufacturers/ recreational vehicles (47% of motorhome users are over 55 years old, In the UK, two thirds of over 55s have a motorcycle license, which may indicate a growing market for motorcycles and accessories. [1])

• Thor Industries ($THO (-1,21 %) ) - (motorhomes, campers)
• Winnebago ($WGO (-2,25 %) ) - (motorhomes & caravans)
• Harley-Davidson ($HOG (+0,05 %) ) - (motorcycles and entry-level electric motorcycles)

🤖 Technology & automation: solution to the labor shortage

Facts:

The labor shortage caused by an aging society is becoming a global challenge. Automation, AI and robotics could help close the skills gap. [1]

Profiteers:

• ABB ($ABBNY (-1,11 %) ) - (industrial robotics, automation)
• Fanuc ($6954 (-3,32 %) ) - (robotics, factory automation)
• Intuitive Surgical ($ISRG (-2,52 %) ) - (robot-assisted surgery)
• Siemens ($SIE (-0,32 %) )- (automation & also medical technology)

🧠 Conclusion:

Demographic change offers long-term investment opportunities. Early investment in the right sectors can benefit from rising spending on health, care, leisure and technology.

I myself am still looking for one or two individual investments and am a little annoyed that I didn't get into Hims & Hers earlier, although I have been on the verge of doing so several times. Apart from the luxury segment with LVMH, the portfolio also includes Siemens as a conglomerate in the field of automation.

Do you explicitly take demographic change into account in your investments, e.g. in the form of individual shares?

Which shares do you have in your portfolio or do you still see them as an opportunity?

Thanks for reading!

_________

Sources:

[1] https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/how-to-invest-as-the-global-population-ages

[2] https://www.bpb.de/kurz-knapp/zahlen-und-fakten/globalisierung/52811/demografischer-wandel/

[3] https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/1343516/umfrage/entwicklung-der-fertilitaetsrate-in-afrika/

[4]

https://www.iwd.de/artikel/mit-dem-alter-waechst-das-vermoegen-489710/

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- UBS raises its price target for NVIDIA from USD 150 to USD 185. Buy. $NVDA (-7,74 %)

- METZLER raises the price target for MUNICH RE from EUR 535 to EUR 543. Buy. $MUV2 (+0,37 %)

- GOLDMAN lowers the target price for NOVO NORDISK from DKK 1040 to DKK 1025. Buy. $NOVO B (-2,61 %)

- GOLDMAN upgrades MTU from Neutral to Buy and raises target price from EUR 276 to EUR 400. $MTX (-0,22 %)

- GOLDMAN upgrades BASF from Neutral to Buy and raises target price from EUR 45 to EUR 53. $BAS (-0,9 %)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for FRESENIUS SE from EUR 42 to EUR 44. Buy. $FRE (+1,05 %)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for EMBRACER from SEK 24 to SEK 28. Hold. $TH9A

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for AMADEUS IT from EUR 62 to EUR 65. Hold. $AMS (-1,98 %)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for NEMETSCHEK from EUR 85 to EUR 100. Hold. $NEM (-1,97 %)

- WARBURG RESEARCH raises the price target for DÜRR from EUR 32 to EUR 33. Buy. $DURYY (+0,57 %)

- HAUCK AUFHÄUSER IB upgrades CANCOM from Hold to Buy. Target price EUR 32. $COK (-3,55 %)

- ODDO BHF upgrades GENERALI to Neutral. Target price EUR 26.10. $G (+0,68 %)

- METZLER raises the price target for HEIDELBERG MATERIALS from EUR 131 to EUR 138. Buy. $HEI (-2,22 %)

- BERENBERG raises the price target for FLATEXDEGIRO from EUR 16 to EUR 18. Buy. $FTK (+0,53 %)

- BERENBERG raises the price target for FREENET from EUR 29 to EUR 32. Buy. $FNTN (+0,71 %)

- JPMORGAN raises the target price for HEIDELBERG MATERIALS from EUR 108 to EUR 149. Overweight. $HEI (-2,22 %)

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- UBS lowers the price target for MUNICH RE from EUR 560 to EUR 540. Buy. $MUV2 (+0,37 %)

- ODDO BHF downgrades MODERNA to Outperform. Target price USD 86. $MRNA (-5,05 %)

- UBS downgrades VALE from Buy to Neutral and lowers target price from USD 14 to USD 11.50. $VALE (-2,47 %)

- DZ BANK lowers target price for DEUTZ from EUR 6.80 to EUR 5.80. Buy. $DEZ (-2,97 %)

- DZ BANK lowers the price target for BECHTLE from EUR 51 to EUR 45. Buy. $BC8 (-3,71 %)

- BERENBERG lowers the target price for ESTEE LAUDER from USD 87 to USD 76. Hold. $EL (-3,14 %)

- RBC lowers the target price for ASOS from GBP 4.60 to GBP 4. Sector Perform. $ASC (-1,63 %)

- RBC lowers the price target for EVOTEC from EUR 12 to EUR 11.60. Outperform. $EVT (-3,28 %)

- RBC lowers the price target for VESTAS from DKK 222 to DKK 156. Outperform. $VWS (-2,96 %)

- BERENBERG lowers the price target for SUSS MICROTEC from EUR 80 to EUR 75. Buy. $SMHN (-7,09 %)

- JEFFERIES downgrades NEL from Hold to Underperform and lowers target price from NOK 5.50 to NOK 3. $NEL (-2,24 %)

- RBC lowers the price target for BMW from EUR 81 to EUR 80. Sector Perform. $BMW (-0,95 %)

- JEFFERIES lowers the price target for KNAUS TABBERT from EUR 26 to EUR 20. Hold. $KTA (-1,36 %)

Black Friday today?