The dry bulk market in late March 2025 is a mixed bag. Capesize rates, after hitting four-month highs, eased off as activity slowed, while Panamax shows uneven signs—some strength, some slippage—amid trade uncertainties. Supramax and Handysize keep a steadier pace, with Asia lifting rates despite a quieter Atlantic. U.S. tariff threats on Chinese-built ships are stirring worries, and a bauxite boom from West Africa keeps Capesize busy. It’s a market with ups, downs, and plenty to watch as the year rolls on.
This update digs into Capesize, Panamax, Supramax, and Handysize trends, plus what’s behind them. From rate shifts to trade twists, here’s the latest—clear and straightforward.
⏬ Capesize Market: Highs Fade, Demand Holds
Capesize ships, the heavyweights of dry bulk, saw rates slip to $21,190 per day—a 6% drop from last week’s $23,992 peak—after a quieter start this week.
The Pacific had a wild ride: West Australia to China (C5) hit $11.58 per tonne earlier but fell to $9.35 as miners stepped back midweek.
Brazil to China (C3) steadied at $24.485 per tonne, up slightly, with end-April cargoes—like Vale’s $VALE (+1.39%)
$VALE3 (+1.05%) $24.25/tonne deal—showing grit despite thinning ship lists.
North Atlantic stayed calm, though a $43,000/day transatlantic run last week raised eyebrows.
Guinea’s bauxite exports, up 45% year-to-date, and Brazil’s iron ore keep demand humming—64 ships are queued off West Africa.
Futures hint at $21,250 for April, and John Fredriksen’s 10% grab of Star Bulk signals confidence. It’s a cooldown from the highs, but the pulse is still there.
⏳ Panamax Market: Push and Pull
Panamax, the mid-sized carriers, faced a week of ups and downs—rates hovered around $12,000-$12,500 per day for key routes, down slightly overall.
The Atlantic showed flickers of life: a $17,000/day trip from South America to Asia stood out, but North Atlantic demand stayed thin, dragging sentiment.
Asia held firmer with NoPac grain runs fetching $12,500-$15,500/day, though lengthening ship lists let charterers nudge rates lower.
U.S. tariff talks—$1M fees per port call—rattle U.S. grain trades, with coal cargoes facing a 34% value hit and ag products 10-15%.
South America’s grain steadied things, but bid-offer gaps widened as players pause.
A short-term $17,000 deal for 3-5 months in China popped up, yet the market feels cautious—waiting for clearer signals.
⏱️ Supramax Market: Asia Leads, Atlantic Lags
Supramax ships, the versatile smaller haulers, notched slight gains, especially in Asia.
Indonesia’s coal runs hit $17,000-$18,000/day—like a $17,000 trip to West India—while a $15,500/day South Africa-to-Far East run showed Indian Ocean spark.
The U.S. Gulf pushed up early with a $14,000/day Baltic-to-West Africa trip, but momentum fizzled—South Atlantic and Europe stayed balanced, not booming.
A $15,000/day NoPac round in China held steady, though demand softened northward.
Tariff fears have owners dodging U.S. calls or passing fees to charterers, squeezing margins.
A 7-9 month deal at $14,000/day worldwide kept period rates alive.
Asia’s the bright spot here, with the West playing catch-up.
⏸️ Handysize Market: Quietly Firm
Handysize, the smallest bulkers, kept a low-key but solid week.
Europe’s Continent and Mediterranean ticked up—a $14,000/day Skaw-to-Morocco run showed support—while Asia’s $10,500/day alumina trip from Singapore stayed healthy.
The U.S. Gulf slumped, with a $9,250/day grain run to the USA reflecting too many ships and not enough cargo.
South Atlantic balanced out, with a $16,000/day Recalada-to-U.S. East Coast deal for larger sizes.
Steel shipments and steady flows in Asia propped up rates, despite a slight ship pile-up.
It’s not flashy, but Handysize is holding its own—small gains, small worries.
🌐 What’s Moving Things: Trade and Ships
A few big pieces are in motion.
Guinea’s bauxite surge—31.4M tonnes in Q1—and Brazil’s iron ore keep Capesize humming, though coal’s down 28% year-on-year for these big ships.
U.S. tariffs on Chinese-built vessels (41% of Pangaea’s fleet $PANL (+1.67%) ) could slap $1M fees per call—coal feels it worst, alumina less so—pushing owners to rethink U.S. routes.
China’s shipyards shrug off the threat, flexing quality and adaptability, while U.S. revival plans lag.
New ship orders are scarce, but Guinea’s tonne-mile demand (1.32T miles) and Australia’s bauxite exports (42.6M tonnes) stretch what’s out there.
China’s consumer shift might cap commodity demand long-term—supply’s the key lever now.
1 Year T/C Dry Bulk - March 19th
🚨 Outlook: Steady with Swings
Capesize could ride bauxite and iron ore for six more weeks—$20,000+/day feels solid, but a slowdown might settle in.
Panamax has pockets of strength, especially if South America picks up, though tariffs cloud the U.S. side—rates might hover unless cargo flows firm.
Supramax leans on Asia’s buzz—$15,000-$18,000/day looks doable there—while Handysize chugs along quietly.
Tariff chaos and tight ship counts could spark volatility, but futures suggest a plateau soon.
It’s a market with some steam left, balanced by trade risks—eyes on April.
💬 What’s Your Take?
Seeing Capesize keep rolling, or Panamax finding its groove? Drop your thoughts—let’s chat! 🚢
