$UNH (+0.61%)

It has been almost three months since UnitedHealth (UNH) caused a stir with a disappointing quarterly report:

❌ Sales below expectations

❌ Profit missed expectations

❌ Forecast lowered

The result? The share price has fallen by around 50% since the all-time high 50 % since the all-time high.

As a reminder: UNH has been a prime example of quality for years.

• From July 2015 to April 2025 the share delivered delivered a positive performance every single year - 10 years in a row!
• During this time, the share price rose by an impressive 477 % and left the S&P 500 by a clear margin.
• But then came the crash.

🔍 Review: 4 blows that changed everything:

[1]. Cyber attack (spring 2024)

• A massive hacker attack paralyzed parts of the IT infrastructure - with a direct impact on the operating business. Earnings per share (EPS), which had been growing steadily for years, suddenly collapsed. However, analysts see the incident as a one-off event - the recovery could follow soon.

[2]. Antitrust investigations

• Shortly afterwards, it became known: The US Department of Justice is investigating UnitedHealth on suspicion of anti-competitive behavior. A serious blow to the company's reputation - and a risk that will not disappear into thin air any time soon.

[3] Tragic CEO death

• In the spring of 2024, CEO Brian Thompson was killed in a violent crime - a shock for the company and the entire industry.

[4] .April 2025: The quarter that shook everything up

The Q1 report 2025 was a disaster:

• Forecast lowered
• Cost explosion at Medicare Advantage
• Losses at the Optum subsidiary
• Further investigations into suspected fraud
• Resignation of the new CEO

🧠 Insiders suddenly buying at UnitedHealth - what's behind it?

• Despite all the setbacks at UnitedHealth (UNH) something is happening that many are overlooking - but is extremely exciting. 👀

If you look at the insider trades on platforms like MarketBeat, something stands out:

📈 A trend break in Q2 2025

In the last three years insiders at UNH have have sold significantly more than they have bought - a classic warning signal.

But in the second quarter of 2025?

For the very first time in a long time:

➡️ More purchases than sales - and that significant.

💰 Figures that impress

• Purchases: over 31 million USD
• Sales: just 179,000 USD

And who is buying? Not just anyone - but the top people:

• The CEO of the Healthcare segment
• The Chief Financial Officer (CFO)
• Several directors
• Only a single sale - from the CEO of the Optum segment.

📈 UNH: Analysts bullish - and the price target? Surprisingly high.

• Despite all the turbulence surrounding UnitedHealth (UNH) many analysts remain remain optimistic - and for good reason.

🔮 EPS forecast until 2029: strong growth expected

• According to consensus estimates, the earnings per share (EPS) of USD 22.80 in 2025 to USD 42.60 by 2029 increase.
• This corresponds to an average annual growth of almost 17 % - an impressive - an impressive figure. 💥

But let's stay realistic.

🧠 Conservative scenario: 15.5 % growth per year

• Even if UNH "only" grows at 15.5% per year this results in EPS of around USD 40.58 by the end of 2029. USD 40.58.
• That would also be a strong result - and shows how much potential the share has.

💸 Valuation: Historically favorable

The current P/E ratio (price-earnings ratio) is significantly below the average of the last few years:

• 5-year average: approx. 25
• 10-year average: approx. 23
• Current: well below

This means: The share is valued historically favorably.

🎯 What does this mean for the price target?

If UNH achieves the conservative growth of 15.50% and the P/E ratio drops to only 22 returns (i.e. below the historical average), the result is

• 📌 Target price 2029: 892.66 USD
• ➕ Yield:
  +217,60 % (without dividends)
• 📈 Ø annual return:
  approx. 39 %

📅 Outlook: Everything hangs on July 29

When UnitedHealth (UNH) on July 29 on July 29, investors will not only focus on sales and earnings. Two other points could be much more decisive:

1️⃣ Will UNH finally comment on the DOJ investigation?

2️⃣ Will there finally be a new annual forecast?

📉 Conclusion: These statements could move the share price more than the figures themselves.

Regardless of how sales and profits turn out Transparency and communication will be decisive on July 29. Investors should prepare for high volatility volatility.

One thing is certain: Volatility will be high.

My Youtube channel for more stock analysis: www.youtube.com/@Verstehdieaktie

[1] .https://www.kaspersky.com/blog/unitedhealth-ransomware-attack/53065/

[2]. https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/banken-versicherungen/versicherer/united-health-us-justizministerium-ermittelt-wegen-betrugsverdacht/100128578.html

[3]. https://www.zdfheute.de/panorama/kriminalitaet/ceo-unitedhealthcare-erschossen-brian-thompson-100.html

[4]. https://www.unitedhealthgroup.com/content/dam/UHG/PDF/investors/2025/UNH-Reports-Q1-2025-Results-Revises-Full-Year-Guidance.pdf

next Tuesday quarterly figures/ next Thuesday Earnings

Forward P/E 16 5Y ave 21

$UNH (+0.61%)

$UNH (+0.61%)
$CNC (+4.72%)
$US60855R1005 (+3.82%)
$ELV (+2.98%)
$CVS (+3.07%)

How the loss of $CNC (+4.72%) and $US60855R1005 (+3.82%) shows, Medicaid is charity care because you lose money when you care for the sickest and poorest population. To make a profit, you want as few Medicaid patients as possible.

$UNH (+0.61%) is in a better position ✌️

$CNC (+4.72%)

Next sale in the health insurance sector ?

🔹 Revenue: USD 48.74 billion (estimated USD 44.24 billion) ✅

🔹 Adjusted earnings per share: ( USD 0.16) (estimated USD 0.23) ❌

🔹 Health insurance ratio: 93.0% (estimated 91.6%) ❌ ; increase of +5.4 percentage points compared to the previous year

🔹 Total income from premiums and services: USD 42.47 billion; increase of 18% compared to the previous year

🔹 Selling and administrative expenses ratio: 7.1 %

Segment revenue:

🔹 Medicaid: USD 21.72 billion; increase of 7% compared to the previous year

Commercial: USD 10.07 billion; increase of 18% compared to the previous year

🔹 Medicare: USD 9.45 billion; increase of 58% compared to the previous year

🔹 Other: USD 1.22 billion; increase of 1% compared to the previous year

Other metrics

🔹 Cash flow from operating activities: USD 1.79 billion

🔹 Payability days for claims: 47 days

CEO comment:

➡️ "We are disappointed with our second quarter results, but have a clear understanding of the trends that impacted our performance and are working diligently and with focus to restore our earnings performance." - Sarah M. London

➡️ "Despite the changing landscape, we believe the staying power of Medicaid, Medicare and the Individual Marketplace is stronger than ever." - Sarah M. London

$UNH (+0.61%)
$US60855R1005 (+3.82%)
$CVS (+3.07%)
$CI (+0.55%)
$XDWH (+0.45%)

I was able to execute my long-planned derivative trade on $UNH (+0.61%) after the setback and the approach to the lower limit of the trading range at approx. 280$. With a leverage of a good 5, it is rather conservative, so that even if the figures are not so good, there is enough of a buffer for the KO. In my estimation, however, it is more likely to head towards 300-320$ in the coming weeks. However, if the closing price falls below $275, I will probably get out.

$UNH (+0.61%)

If the Justice Department, FTC and other government agencies were to break up United Healthcare, shareholders would get Optum Health, the nation's largest physician group.

Healthcare is the largest employer in the U.S, $UNH (+0.61%) itself one of the largest employers with over 400,000 employees.

So I would have relatively little to worry about here, you may just need a little patience ✌️

Too big to fail ? 🤔

Now more than ever ...

Even after today's news, the risk/reward ratio remains good for me. UnitedHealth is working very openly with the Department of Justice, apparently they have nothing to hide.