$RSG (+0.62%) increases its dividend by 8.25%

A further dividend increase is planned for 2025.

https://www.finanzen.at/nachrichten/aktien/s&p-500-titel-republic-services-aktie-ueber-diese-dividendenzahlung-koennen-sich-republic-services-aktionare-freuen-1034746643

TL;DR like to roast my deposit, appreciate all opinions!

I always find the many posts here and reading various biographies very interesting, so I've wanted to say a few words for a while now.

Tried early, but started late

I am now 32 and unfortunately started investing seriously far too late, studied far too long, and with the larger salaries finally built up as much as possible and tried to catch up as quickly as possible. "Unfortunately" means for the most part the past calendar year, which is why I put a large part of my money into shares at already high prices and then had very little cash left in the crash to add to it. Fully invested, in other words. During the crash, I mainly reallocated and continued to fully invest what was left over from my monthly salaries.

Yet back in 2011, at the age of 18, I had a share called Facebook and a Starbucks share in my portfolio without much of a clue. I just wanted to know what my mother was actually doing with her shares and how it worked, and with FB and Starbucks I simply chose two companies that "everyone" uses/needs anyway. The idea wasn't that stupid, it worked, and after a short time I was happy about the small profit in absolute terms, sold the shares at DiBa despite the high fees at the time and simply forgot about shares for years - wealth accumulation, a word that wasn't in my vocabulary, the money I had was simply turned upside down as a young adult. Well, young me, just leave the shares lying around or, even better, take a closer look at them and carry on, it "might" have been worth it...

Of priorities and wrong horses

The years went by without any shares, but with lots of fast food and partying, but at least things have changed. At some point, I started to think about the future and wealth accumulation, first taking an interest in interest rates, and then the logical next step was dividends and shares. Unfortunately, it started rather haphazardly. As a student, I started investing small amounts, and of course betting on the wrong horses. Speculative lithium shares were particularly bad in this phase, unfortunately these were large sums even by my standards, from my grandfather's estate. That was bad. However, crypto was a very good horse, more precisely $BTC (-0.61%) and $ETH (-1.74%) which (as a computer scientist) I became interested in early on and exited several times with high profits, also thanks to domestic mining. It's just stupid that back then, in the last decade, I would never have imagined how cryptos would develop. If I had, I would have simply left it all, or at least part of it. You learn and you're always smarter afterwards anyway.

Fully invested - excessive, unhealthy, or simply good housekeeping?

So now I'm 32 - and proud of a portfolio that I think I've built up to a good size in a relatively short time. Which has given me other ideas for some time now. I'm still a long way from reaching my goal, but I have to get back on the "invest 100%" path, which has been completely contrary to my past for a long time now, and strangely enough, I'm finding it difficult to do so - something to reflect on. There are too many (supposed?) opportunities every day. So I simply could not $UNH (+0.41%) after a long period of observation yesterday and of course the savings plans had to run today too. I think I've always been good at budgeting, or let's put it this way, at least good at getting by with the money available to me in a perfectly timed way, but "indulging", not just in company shares, may become a little more prominent again. I don't go without noticeably in everyday life, I need very little, which I don't think is a bad quality to begin with. But I have changed a lot in the area of "consumption" compared to the past. I think it would be good to find a healthy balance. In my opinion, just as you don't just live to work, but work to live, the same applies to saving/investing. I actually read a post here on gq today that described exactly that and I could relate to it very well. So, reflection and taking your foot off the gas is allowed - no, it's a must! I am familiar with frugalists, but I never wanted to be one. I'd be interested to know if anyone else here feels the same way, or did?

Wrong decisions, mistakes... and (hopefully) the right conclusions

Back to the topic! (Not only) on the way to today's portfolio I have made many wrong decisions, as already mentioned, so I thought that a well-kept portfolio roast could do me some good. Other, new opinions and assessments can't be bad!

In particular, in the past I have often missed the opportunity to simply let profits run their course and instead dragged losses around with me for too long (which brings us back to lithium). A thought that I recently had again when I was thinking about when it would make sense to $HIMS (-1.69%) possibly realize, as an example. $PLTR (-1.69%) and $NVDA (-1.43%) are two examples that, like so many others, I naturally had on my radar, but they always seemed too expensive, the setback never came and I really missed the big rallies as a result. At the same time, I also get caught out by FOMO from time to time. So in both good and bad phases, I try not to just see red or green, fear or hope, but simply to evaluate what actually makes sense "from now on". Sometimes you realize a loss in order to try your luck elsewhere, sometimes you should let profits run, sometimes take them, sometimes endure the dip, sometimes be courageous and sometimes defensive. Easier said than done. I find it very nice and helpful to exchange ideas on this platform and how open and "yet" respectful it generally is. Of course, I will most likely never reach some portfolio sizes, but you can always learn something about how some people manage their portfolios, regardless of the absolute figures. You will always make mistakes, but at least you should deal with them correctly and draw the best possible conclusions.

Portfolio restructuring, planned investments / savings plans

And today? After some evaluation, research, regrouping and restructuring, I now have fewer, but still quite a few positions in different sectors, most of which are already of a decent and roughly balanced size. My medium-term plan is now to build up all positions to a certain target size. This is why I am currently running savings plans:

$MPWR (-1.37%)

$AVGO (-1.36%)

$ISRG (-0.87%)

$DXCM (-0.19%)

$DHR (-0.59%)

$ALV (-0.36%)

$9988 (+0.61%)

$BRK.B (-0.97%)

$APH (-1.11%)

$MELI (-0.23%)

$BLK (-1.42%)

$RSG (+0.62%)

$DGE (-1.53%)

$VKTX (-0.35%)

ETF/ETC:

$UBU7 (-0.69%)

$EWG2 (+0.88%)

Partly with small weekly amounts, until enough cash is available to fill the target position evenly. With $AVGO (-1.36%) for example, there is not much left. Also $BRK.B (-0.97%) / $APH (-1.11%) and others are already approaching the target. In some cases with somewhat larger sums for still small but prioritized positions, until opportunities and/or resources for individual purchases arise, such as the $ALV (-0.36%) and $RSG (+0.62%) should be mentioned here, as well as $DGE (-1.53%) as a turnaround candidate.

Once the aforementioned positions are full, I would like to turn my attention to the more defensive candidates that are already in the portfolio but which I am currently prioritizing - $MCD (-1.13%) / $KO (-0.37%) / $CCEP (-0.56%) / $ULVR (-0.77%) and others - and finally increase the ETF and gold share in the long term.

$VKTX (-0.35%) is a bit of a gamble, as I have actually said goodbye to pharma - $ABBV (-0.67%) / $NOVO B (+0.8%) / $LLY (-0.87%) and $MRK (-0.81%) were still part of the inventory until recently. Instead, I decided to go with $DXCM (-0.19%) / $ISRG (-0.87%) / $DHR (-0.59%) on medical technology.

$BTC (-0.61%) remains a fixed value in the portfolio, while I $ETH (-1.74%) (incorrectly entered due to staking - around 0.4 shares or €1000) and $XRP (-0.91%) would/will sell at corresponding prices.

I still lack around €15,000 in individual stocks at current prices to bring all positions to the current desired/dream target. This will take some time, but is foreseeable. And then I would be really quite proud and happy "as things stand now"! In any case, I now feel very comfortable on the path I have chosen and, as I said, I have to stop myself from forgetting that not all money has to be invested all the time.

Savings rate

To put this into figures, I have averaged a savings rate of around €1500 over the last 24 months, with an average of €100 a month in dividends. 1400€ investment, that's about 82% of my monthly budget after deducting all "unavoidable" fixed costs including fuel and household, but not including consumption such as clothes, going out or vacations. Exaggerated, I can't say otherwise myself. But at least I have a good reason to step on the gas and get the compound interest going.

So what is all this for?

In the long term, my girlfriend and I dream of owning a property somewhere on the Croatian Adriatic, her homeland, and where I was able to spend many wonderful weeks with my parents every year as a child. A beautiful region that I consider an important part of my life, with many great moments and memories that may become even more. I hope to get closer to this goal "quickly" with the depot. The language is already halfway there! :)

In the long term, this would probably involve a little reallocation into value dividend payers, which should help with repayment. However, I would also like to lay the foundations for later distributions today, without neglecting growth. There is probably no perfect mix for this, but you are welcome to rate mine.

So, unfortunately I was once again unable to be brief. Thank you for reading, whoever has made it this far, and for your comments! I'm very excited and wish you all a great weekend.

🖥️ Field report

Inspired by the many great members on getquin and their super contributions, I wanted to share my experiences with you with this small series of reports and give something back to the community.

I was able to increase my income enormously due to a job change, but this also means that I don't expect such an increase in my income this year.

I was able to reduce my expenses significantly compared to the previous year. Unfortunately, as I had built up credit card debt, paying it off increased my financial burden.

Fortunately, I was able to get out of this situation within a few months by being disciplined and learning how to organize my finances.

The 50-30-20 rule was a particular help to me. I also opened a smart account with C24Bank, which allows me to create sub-accounts. The sub-accounts enable me to organize different pots of money for different purposes and use them with different cards. I have set automatic saving rules via the app, which has worked very well so far.

I also use the app to track and analyze my spending and income.

My portfolio was doing very well at the beginning of the year, but then unfortunately the correction started and from February to March my portfolio was only in the red. I didn't let this put me off and kept my savings plans running continuously.

There was one change to my ETF core from February onwards: I no longer have the STOXX Europe 600 in my savings plan, but now have the MSCI Momentum and the MSCI EM Value. With Momentum, I want to focus primarily on long-term trends and not actively on certain ETF themes that may only experience a brief hype.

With EM Value, I wanted to weight EM somewhat higher, taking the value factor into account.

I have also made some additional purchases to further advance my dividend growth strategy. Assuming that the stocks I had chosen could not fall any further, I bought them and was then particularly successful with $UNH (+0.41%) and $TSM (-1.53%) were proved wrong.

To my delight $RSG (+0.62%) , $V (-0.99%) and $DE (-0.72%) held up very well despite the correction.

Before I got serious about finance and building wealth, I traded a lot in collectibles and currently have a mid to high 4 figure amount of collectibles in my inventory.

In the long term I would like to part with my collection as I have changed my mind and believe that investing so much money in old video game consoles, rated video games and Pokémon cards was not a good financial decision.

👨‍💻 Finances

🟢 Income YoY: +13.40%

🔴 Expenses YoY: -29.04%

💰 Monthly savings rate: €800

🏦 Portfolio

📊 Allocation:

📄 73% ETF

📄 24% equities

🟠 03% Bitcoin

🏎️ Performance:

📈 01/2025: +5,90 %

📉 02/2025: -1,85 %

📉 03/2025: -7,45 %

📉 YTD 2025: -3.65 %

📉 TTWROR 2025: -2.91%

🔥 Top performer - YTD:

🥇 $RSG (+0.62%) +15,81%

🥈 $V (-0.99%) +6,69%

🥉 $DE (-0.72%) +6,58%

🤡 Top Loser - YTD:

🥇 $TSM (-1.53%) -19,13%

🥈 $ASML (-0.92%) -10,71%

🥉 $IS3R (-0.23%) -6,37%

💹 Transactions:

🔄 03/2025: $ISAC (-0.72%) x5,55

🔄 03/2025: $IS3R (-0.23%) x2,80

🔄 03/2025: $5MVL (-0.36%) x1,83

➡️ 03/2025: $TSM (-1.53%) x1,726

➡️ 03/2025: $ZTS (-1.28%) x2,093

➡️ 03/2025: $UNH (+0.41%) x0,796

💶 03/2025: Interest +€25.29

💸 03/2025: $V (-0.99%) +1,05€

💸 03/2025: $ZTS (-1.28%) +2,28€

💸 03/2025: $UNH (+0.41%) +1,97€

🔄 02/2025: $ISAC (-0.72%) x6,8

🔄 02/2025: $MEUD (-0.27%) x0,50

⬅️ 02/2025: $BRK.B (-0.97%) +51,29€

⬅️ 02/2025: $PG (-0.6%) +543,98€

💶 02/2025: Interest +€25.20

💸 02/2025: $DE (-0.72%) +4,06€

💸 02/2025: $ASML (-0.92%) +2,68€

💸 02/2025: $COST (-0.76%) +0,03€

💸 02/2025: $PG (-0.6%) +2,83€

🔄 01/2025: $ISAC (-0.72%) x5,75

🔄 01/2025: $MEUD (-0.27%) x0,53

➡️ 01/2025: $UNH (+0.41%) x1

➡️ 01/2025: $TSM (-1.53%) x2

➡️ 01/2025: $BTC (-0.61%) x0,00111

💶 01/2025: Interest +€18.79

💸 01/2025: $RSG (+0.62%) +1,16€

💸 01/2025: $SYK (-0.89%) +0,84€

🏦 Other investments

🎰 Collectibles:

⬅️ Pokémon Black Edition 2 sealed

⬅️ Pokémon Shining Pearl & Shining Diamond sealed

🔮 Outlook

I don't expect my income to increase in the coming quarter, but I do expect my expenses to continue to develop positively, as the savings potential of the changed insurance and electricity tariffs will make itself felt over the course of the year.

The savings plans will definitely continue as before.

If the correction on the stock market continues, I will increase further positions.

I will also continue to significantly reduce my holdings of collectibles and reallocate the freed-up capital to my portfolio.

🧰 I use these tools:

🔧 Tracking investments: Getquin

🔧 Company analysis: Share finder

🔧 Chart analysis: TradingView

📢 Recommendations:

👉 Current account: C24Bank - https://s.c24.de/t1NQ7ikwwc/

Broker: Trade Republic - https://refnocode.trade.re/hfxr6pwh

#️⃣ Hashtags:

#vermögensbau
#etfs
#aktien
#dividenden

AHEAD: Starting next month, my Instagram monthly recaps will only show the most important facts and figures on the slides of the Instagram post. The detailed text version will appear here on getquin. This makes it easier to absorb the information and makes the Instagram posts clearer.

I will divide the monthly review into a portfolio update and a review for private finances. I could also create a separate review for dividends and reinvestments. My aim is to motivate people to take responsibility for their own finances and to build up their wealth. The whole thing is based on my experience reports from my personal everyday financial life, tailored to the respective target group for each sub-post. Let's see how well I succeed.

Here is the last All-In-One post.

While many have continued to panic about Trump, I think I have understood that the whole tariff issue is only intended to depress the markets so that the USA can refinance itself at much lower interest rates when a good USD 7 trillion of the USD 36 trillion of national debt matures this year. That's why I preferred to keep on hiking, while the portfolio rewarded me with plenty of dividends for the month.

I present the following points for the past month of April 2025:

➡️ SHARES

➡️ ETFS

➡️ DISTRIBUTIONS

➡️ AFTER-PURCHASES

➡️ CASHBACK

➡️ P2P CREDITS

➡️ CRYPTO

➡️ AND OTHER?

➡️ OUTLOOK

➡️ Shares

So the second of April was the aforementioned day of liberation. And it was indeed one, the day of liberation from the excessive overvaluations in US equities. Unfortunately, there was also other collateral damage, but in the end there will be none, as it is all just book losses.

The trap in the US government budget that I would like to briefly point out is the national debt to GDP ratio of 123%, as of March 2025. In Germany, it is around 63%. This is stiflingly high and means that economic output is not enough to keep the national debt in check! Therefore new new "money" has to be printed for refinancing. And this money reaches us through asset price inflation. The illustration is, of course, highly simplified, but that is why we invest.

A look at my portfolio shows me that my individual shares $NFLX (-0.97%) my previous class leader $AVGO (-1.36%) has at least just caught up in terms of performance. Nevertheless, Broadcom remains the largest position in terms of volume. Who knows for how much longer?

Netflix's performance has recovered to +184%, Broadcom's is +182%. I'm watching the spectacle, but I'm letting the savings plans continue. Nothing more will be done here, as Beate Sander once said: the horses stay in the stable. Behind the two draught horses $WMT (-0.97%) 3rd place in terms of volume and $SAP (-1.17%) in 3rd place in terms of performance with +110%. In the last review, I reported that the waste disposal service provider $RSG (+0.62%) had risen steadily. It is now losing a few places again, but rising $V (-0.99%) and $MA (-0.96%) are rising together and both are already knocking on the door of the top 5 from the outside. The performance of both is similar and decent with +44%/+42%.

As always, the last places in the main stock portfolio are occupied by the same suspects. $NKE (-1.15%) , $TGT (-0.88%) and $HTGC (-0.58%) are the smallest positions. In terms of performance, Nike and Target are the worst performers at -40%.$DHR (-0.59%) as well. But that leaves me cold. In the current macro situation, this is hardly to be expected otherwise. The "neighbor indicator" fits, because most of the shoes on their doorstep (larger family) are Nike shoes. I'm thinking about adjusting my savings plans so that these values receive a higher proportion of my net salary.

➡️ ETFs

The impact of Trump's tariff policy was also clearly felt in the prices of my ETFs in April, leading to significant losses. It is important to remain calm in such volatile times and continue to invest strategically. Such phases are part and parcel of long-term asset accumulation.

➡️ Distributions

In April, I was pleased to receive 19 distributions on 8 payout days. This additional income stream is a valuable addition to my normal earned income, for which I am very grateful. I recommend everyone to build up this kind of additional income in order to become more financially independent from their traditional main job.

Traditionally, April is not a low-distribution month for me. This time, however, the distributions from my three large ETFs were not paid out at the end of March but in April, which distorted the distributions for both months. This effect made April the second-highest distribution month since I started investing. Otherwise, April is always slightly below the distributions of March.

➡️ Additional purchases

From the refunds below, I bought two one-off savings plans on the $GGRP (-0.68%) and $JEGP (-0.18%) executed. I would have liked to buy more, but I still don't want to touch the nest egg or reserves.

➡️ Cashback

In April, I received a cashback on my electricity bill and a travel allowance from my employer. Part of this was used to pre-finance future expenses and to top up sinking funds, while the other part was invested in an old portfolio via the aforementioned one-off savings plans.

➡️ P2P loans

With Mintos, there were no interest or redemption payments. I always withdraw incoming funds with availability. How are you doing with P2P? Are you also withdrawing from the investment?

➡️ Crypto

April was also a very volatile month for crypto investors. The unrest caused by Trump's tariff policy depressed crypto prices, similar to March. However, prices gradually recovered, indicating that the money supply is already increasing again. This is happening through new debt being purchased in the form of government bonds by the FED, which is essentially the equivalent of 'printing' money. Historically, the $BTC (-0.61%) usually follows this development with a delay of just over 10 weeks, as it is strongly correlated to the money supply at 90%.

I am following the whole thing with interest. My preferred theory of cryptocycles still fits in with the current trend. We are moving back towards 100K and I expect a bullish crossover in Bitcoin. The limit orders are still in the market, even if it will be a long time before they trigger. Of course, I hope that the "normal" bear market will then resume. In a few months' time, we will know whether we will have seen another clear double top in the current bull market.

Here are two key figures from my crypto wallets: monthly performance: +5.5%, performance since the beginning: +56%.

➡️ And what else?

I'm continuing to delve deeper into the use of LLMs and am currently working on my prompting technique. The posts on my Instagram channel that I have published since March have been created with the help of AI, I have used AI to give me ideas for image generation, to have them created naturally and many of the quotes are also AI-generated. I use several LLMs and see significant differences in the outputs. This makes it more diverse and even allows me to merge multiple results. The models are also learning my writing style better and better, with longer generated texts you can still clearly read the generic, but I myself understand better and better how I can use the new technology to improve my productivity instead of letting it replace me. This also applies to my job.

As in the previous month, I am also focusing much more intensively on the topic of nutrition. I avoid added sugar as much as possible. So there was no chocolate bunny for me at Easter and I'm not hungry for chocolate or other sweets. That's a real miracle.

I've also increased my weekly exercise routine once again and am paying close attention to how my body is coping. Instead of two weight training sessions at home, I now do three, instead of three running sessions a week I do a lot and every morning I do some general fitness/cardio and core exercises for my stomach to warm up. The clear aim is to continue building muscle and strengthening my heart health. And I enjoy it, even though the temperature in my apartment has already risen towards 25° Celsius on some days.

I've been hiking twice in Saxon Switzerland, once just under and once over 30 km. On hiking days, I like to leave at 4 a.m. on the first Saxonia Express train. In the fall and early spring, this is even the perfect time to enjoy the sunrise on the sandstone cliffs. For me personally, this is pure healing for the soul and a real quality of life. I can enjoy it without depressing thoughts in my head because I know that my finances are in order and running on autopilot.

➡️ Outlook

May will be a no-spend month for me, simply because I feel like taking on the next challenge. Later in the year, I want to start a Hartz IV/citizen's allowance experiment. I should be able to do this most of the time, as my expenses in March and April were both under €1,000. I'm already looking forward to the evaluation at the end of the challenge.

Links:

Social media links can be found in my profile, also feel free to check out the Instagram version of my review.

Waste Management $WM (-0.19%) is the third largest position in my portfolio with approx. 4.5%... and I feel quite comfortable with that.

The Q1 figures came out on 29.04. I have categorized the figures for myself.

With this post and my general classifications, I am also trying to provide a good, comprehensible overview to give all "shareholders" or future shareholders an adequate insight and ensure an understanding of the company.

SourcesQ1 Report [1] and Earnings Call [2]

WM presents a strong Q1, with double-digit sales growth and a solid operating performance. However, earnings per share are lower despite record sales. Find out why this is not necessarily a bad sign here. Have fun!

📊 ESTIMATES VS. REPORTED

📊 Q1 figures at a glance

• Turnover6.02 billion $ (+16.7 %)
• Adjusted EBITDA1.72 billion $ (+12.2 %)
• Adjusted EPS1.67 $ (previous year: 1.75 $)

Why is sales growing strongly but EPS falling?

In the first quarter of 2025, WM reported adjusted EPS of $1.67, compared to $1.75 in the previous year, despite a +16.7% jump in sales, does that sound alarming at first? But it's not...

1 . The Stericycle takeover has a double effect: (more context later)

Sales increase because Stericycle is now fully included in the balance sheet ($619m sales in Q1).

At the same time, however, costs are also rising:

• Interest payments on new debt that was used for financing
• Amortization of the purchase price
• One-off integration costs (e.g. system conversions, personnel)

All of this has a negative impact on earnings per share, even though the new division is already profitable.

2 . Special tax effects & discontinuation of subsidies

• In the previous year, WM benefited from tax credits for alternative fuels, which expired in 2025.
• This explains part of the decline compared to the strong Q1 2024.

3 . Higher capital costs put pressure on free cash flow

• Even though operating cash flow remained solid ($1.21 billion), free cash flow was only $475 million, leaving less room for buybacks or earnings growth.

Conclusion so far: The falling EPS is not a warning signal, but a consequence of...

• strategic growth (acquisition),
• temporary integration costs,
• expiring tax benefits and
• increased interest rate environment.

In the long term, EPS should improve again significantly as soon as synergies from the Stericycle integration and new RNG/recycling plants take effect.

🚛 What is the traditional core business doing?

The so-called legacy business includes:

• Collecting, transporting and disposing of waste
• Customers: Cities, households, companies
• Service: Planning, logistics, landfills, disposal & recycling

Q1 2025:

• Turnover5.40 billion $
• Adjusted EBITDA1.62 billion $
• EBITDA margin: 30 % (Q1 2024: 29,6 %)
• EBITDA growth: +5 % YoY

Growth driver:

• Core pricing +6.5 %
• Cost optimization:...

COO John Morris:

"We reduced operating costs for the sixth consecutive quarter, now at 60.5% of sales."

The reason for this:

• Focus on employee retention & process automation
• Route planning & resource deployment improved through digital tools
• Residential margin at 20% for the first time in 6 years due to targeted withdrawal from low-margin customers
• Withdrawal from residential (private households):

• A lot of effort, low margin
• Focus now on commercial & industrial = better cost/income ratio

Comment (COO John Morris):

"This was the fourth quarter in a row with a 30% margin and that despite a difficult basis for comparison and winter influences."

WM is concentrating on quality rather than volume, more income through targeted pricing and a focus on high-margin customers.

💊 WM Healthcare Solutions Stericycle takeover: between waste and medicine, WM reorganizes itself

WM acquired Stericycle, the leading provider of medical waste disposal, for $7.2 billion in 2024.

The business is less cyclical, fast-growing and in a regulated market.

Q1 2025:

• Turnover619 million $
• EBITDA95 million $
• EBITDA margin: 15,3 %

• Margin improvement compared to Q4 2024: +20 basis points
• Target synergies: $80-100 million in additional EBITDA by the end of 2025
• Target synergies: USD 250 million annually by 2027 (ongoing savings + efficiency gains)

-> e.g. through joint administration, logistics, location optimization

Comment (CEO):

"Our customers value our digital environmental platform and nationwide network - a clear competitive advantage."

♻️ Recycling & Renewable Energy

• Recycling: WM sorts & sells raw materials such as paper, plastic and metal
• Renewable Energy: Recovery of biogas (RNG) from landfills

Q1 2025:

• Combined EBITDA contribution18 million $
• Ø price for recycled raw materials88 $/ton (previous year: 84 $)
• Positive increase, but still below previous highs (e.g. 2022: approx. 120 $)

An EBITDA contribution of $18 million compared to total EBITDA of $1.72 billion?

That sounds vanishingly small? I asked myself the same question...

Why the amount seems low, but still fits

1 . Recycling & Renewable Energy are capital-intensive, long-term oriented

• These areas require high investments in advance (e.g. plants, automation, RNG projects).
• The returns come over years, not in the first or second quarter.

2 . Growth still in the start-up phase

• Many plants (especially RNG) are still under construction or have recently come online.
• CEO Jim Fish said: "8 new RNG plants are currently under construction, all of which are scheduled for completion in 2025."
• The full EBITDA impact will therefore only unfold later.

3 . Recycling margins are heavily dependent on raw material prices

• Prices for recycled raw materials were $88/tonne in Q1, which is well below previous highs (e.g. 2022: $120).
• Ergo: fluctuating contribution to EBITDA, but not a structural problem.

4 . Benchmark: 20% growth YoY

• EBITDA from Recycling & Renewable Energy increased by >20% compared to Q1 2024 .
• The trend is therefore positive, even if the absolute figure appears small.

➡️ It is a growing business area with long-term potential. EBITDA contributions will increase in the next quarters & years as soon as new plants are up and running.

💰 Further financial figures

• Adjusted EBITDA margin (total): 28.5% (previous year: 29.6%)
• Free cash flow: $475 million (previous year: $714 million)
• Investments in sustainability128 million $
• Cash position216 million (end of 2024: $414 million)

Further voices from the earnings call:

CFO Devina Rankin on financial strategy & risks

• Free cash flow in Q1 as planned: $475 million
• CapEx at $831 million, focus on sustainability & fleet ramp-ups
• Customs risks lowas WM pre-produced equipment at an early stage
• Share buybacks further paused, focus on deleveraging
• Leverage ratio: 3.58x, target by the end of 2025: ~3.15x

"Despite interest burden and investments, we are fully on track - operational strength and synergy potential remain intact."

CEO Jim Fish emphasized:

"I'm proud of the fact that we've become a predictably strong performer, quarter after quarter, over the past few years."

He sees WM in a strong strategic position, particularly thanks to three drivers:

• Growth in the core business (Collection & Disposal)
• strong contribution from Stericycle
• Sustainable investments in recycling & biogas (RNG)

Particularly exciting:

• The automated recycling centers achieved EBITDA margins twice as high as non-automated plants.
• 2 new plants went online in Q1, with 7 more to follow by the end of 2025.
• 8 new RNG plants are under construction, all with high yields and progressing according to plan.

"Our sustainability strategy is working, these projects are delivering strong, growth-oriented EBITDA."

The call once again showed how operational fine-tuning, automation and acquisitions go hand in hand and underlined the following points:

• Technology and pricing secure margins
• Sustainability is more than a buzzword, it delivers profit
• Stericycle brings new potential that is structurally anchored

P/E ratio & current valuation (personal assessment, no investment advice)

Current level: ~ 34,49

In recent years: between 25-30

➡️ the current P/E ratio signals that the market believes WM will continue to enjoy stable growth and security.

Are there any special effects in earnings that distort the P/E ratio?

Yes, the ones already mentioned. Nevertheless, explained again:

1 . EPS (earnings per share) is currently falling slightly due to:

• Interest costs due to Stericycle financing
• Depreciation & integration costs
• Elimination of tax credits for alternative fuels

➡️ This means:

• The "G" in the P/E ratio is currently under pressure, but not structurally weakened
• The P/E ratio appears artificially higher because earnings are temporarily lower

➡️ The current high P/E ratio is explainable and temporary

• WM remains a defensive quality stock with strong cash flow
• Not a bargain, but a solid investment for long-term strategists
• If you think long-term (3+ years, you will find a company with a clear strategy & growth path here

🔮 Conclusion & outlook

WM remains a fundamental long-term runner with vision.

Although the Stericycle financing is putting pressure on EPS and cash flow in the short term, the focus on high-margin areas, sustainability and healthcare opens up long-term potential.

• Positive: Strong legacy business, successful entry into healthcare disposal

• NeutralEPS slightly down, cash flow temporarily under pressure

• RisksInterest costs, margin pressure in recycling, political uncertainty regarding sustainability

My conclusion: WM delivers structurally, those who think long-term will find stability and perspective here.

I remain invested, position will not be increased for the time being.

________________

Thank you for reading 🤝

________________

Sources:

[1] https://investors.wm.com/static-files/00de6f79-f0b6-4b6a-af79-9e5f892c73f5

[2] https://investors.wm.com/static-files/9db3d0d5-0c4d-47fa-aab1-f0bf71a86859

_______________

$WM (-0.19%)
$RSG (+0.62%)
$WCN (-0.68%)
$CLH (-1.46%)
$CWST (-1.02%)

February is over. While there was still snow and temperatures well below zero, I went winter swimming again and used my vacation and weekends for short trips to Dresden, Potsdam and Berlin. Thanks to the Germany Ticket. The investment knew what to do by itself for a while. Time for a look back.

I present the following points for the past month of February 2025:

➡️ SHARES

➡️ ETFS

➡️ DISTRIBUTIONS

➡️ CASHBACK

➡️ AFTER-PURCHASES

➡️ P2P CREDITS

➡️ CRYPTO

➡️ AND OTHER?

➡️ OUTLOOK

➡️ Shares

Things were actually going really well for my shares, but there were some serious headwinds from the other side of the pond: tariffs are coming. And that naturally moved my portfolio too. My giant $AVGO (-1.36%) was now only up +200%, with a clear downward trend. But that still leaves me cold, because technology stocks are of course heavily overvalued. So it's bound to happen that someone lets the air out. I was pleased because my savings plan was executed at a more favorable price.

$NFLX (-0.97%) goes down slightly, the $SAP (-1.17%) remains stable in terms of performance and volume compared to the previous month. With the 2nd place by volume $WMT (-0.97%) not too much has happened either. So as far as the stocks at the front end of the chain are concerned, February was not really eventful. The same applies to the lower areas.

Whereas last month the banking and financial sector moved ahead in terms of volume, I now notice the $RSG (+0.62%) and $SYK (-0.89%) which continue to fight their way to the top of the portfolio. This is exciting, as I have always seen these stocks as good midfield performers, but not candidates for the top positions.

➡️ ETFs

As always, ETFs are doing their thing. What can you say except the typical? Don't rely on the state pension, build your own ETF pension. Anyone who doesn't invest is simply - I can't put it any nicer - stupid and lost. And I think that there have now been enough warnings from every political direction, as well as from various other perspectives and media, that the pension will not be enough. That's why my inner voice tells me that those who don't take care of their old age will only have themselves to blame for their misery and I even think it's unfair if others, who perhaps have little income and are cutting back in order to build up assets, have to be fleeced in order to protect the idle. At least that's what my inner voice tells me. Certainly a controversial opinion, feel free to write yours in the comments.

➡️ Distributions

I was able to collect 19 distributions on 9 payout days in February. I am grateful for this additional income stream. Everyone should build up their additional income this way.

➡️ Cashback

In February there were two reimbursements from the health insurance company, which I treat as "cashback". One was a subsidy for prophylaxis and the other was a payout from the bonus program. As I don't plan either of these as income, there was extra money to distribute. More on this under subsequent purchases.

➡️ Additional purchases

I used the subsidy for the prophylaxis to purchase a one-off savings plan in the $SPYW (-0.07%) plan. I initially put the payout from the bonus program to one side.

➡️ P2P loans

With my last P2P platform, Mintos, there was no interest or redemption payment. I still want to withdraw everything here. I would even accept a complete write-off to get out of the platform. In any case, the remaining amount on the platform is no longer relevant.

➡️ Crypto

Crypto investors experienced book losses in February. $BTC (-0.61%) fell from over USD 103,000 to under USD 80,000, and other cryptocurrencies also fell. $ETH (-1.74%) and other cryptocurrencies.

I remain patient. We are a long way from my exit prices and no improvement is expected in March. We will have to wait and see and possibly add to our position.

➡️ And what else?

I currently see a major threat to the prosperity on which the German welfare state is built. Wokism, cancel culture and, above all, reliance on the state is a huge problem, as is the ever-inflating state. We Germans have far too little awareness of personal responsibility and the wrong mindset.

You are always the average of the people around you. So if you surround yourself with the wrong environment, you will never be able to develop better habits. That's why I think you should always surround yourself with people who are already where you want to be, be it in terms of sport, career, setting up a business or finances.

In February, for example, I met up with people who are also interested in investing and the stock market for a regulars' table in rural Saxony-Anhalt, naturally at the invitation of a Youtuber who I have been following for a long time and who is a frugalist himself. Each of the participants had a different background, different ideas, but the knowledge that you have to do something yourself and the will to get ahead in life united us. The meeting was simply wonderful because I usually only meet people (especially in my day-to-day work) who don't think about the difficult tomorrow. And I'm not just talking about very young people, but also baby boomers. I myself maintain that pensions will no longer be secure for them either. What happens if Germany gets into financial difficulties, for example if government spending continues to rise and income can no longer keep up? The cancel culture certainly means that low-income earners prefer to go on state benefits, or that people who are able to work do not leave the citizen's allowance at all. I don't have a solution for this myself.

But we all know that the state is becoming ever more bloated. On the one hand, it can't prevent this if it has to provide for more and more people (e.g. an increase in the number of baby boomers soon to retire or people who [have to] go into the citizen's allowance). On the other hand, the state doesn't want to prevent this bloating either, as it is deliberately increasing its size through bureaucracy and new official structures. Do we actually need them?

And here comes my assumption. What if this CAP cannot be solved by printing money, as it would become excessive and the welfare state would no longer function? Citizen's income is an entitlement under certain conditions, but having an entitlement does not mean that the entitlement will be enforced. The best example is childcare places. If there aren't enough, you can still be entitled to them. So what happens when social benefits can no longer be financed? No matter how much entitlement there may be. That doesn't help anyone. I deliberately paint a black scenario to get the last person to make their own provisions!

There are 45.6 million people in employment in Germany, 34.8 million of whom are subject to social insurance contributions, 5.3 million of whom are in the public sector. In simplified terms, this means that around 29.5 million keep the economy running through taxes. And thus consequently keep the welfare state alive through social security contributions. Please also remember that 100,000 well-trained skilled workers leave our country every year. Germany has invested in them in the form of general and university education. And entrepreneurs or institutions in the country have invested in them through vocational training, further and advanced training and wages and salaries. I can understand anyone who wants to leave the country and live elsewhere. Instead of condemning these people, we should finally initiate a change in policy so that Germany becomes more attractive again and 100,000 taxpayers don't leave.

As I said, I'm deliberately painting the devil on the wall, but there won't be enough of the 29.5 million taxpayers left to keep things running forever. I haven't even considered the fact that many well-qualified people will retire and won't be replaced by equally well-qualified people. In any case, the risk that the welfare state will cease to function at some point is great enough for me to expect that what we consider normal today will or can no longer be normal at some point. In any case, I have heard the warnings and prefer to build up my own assets and additional income that will cushion me.

So: build up your own assets and income and stay away from government influence/opinion mongering and deceptive promises about a supposedly secure welfare state, as you will end up on your own when things get serious.

➡️ Outlook

Trump's next tariffs are coming into force, sending shockwaves through the markets, and even now, as I write this article in March, my portfolio is noticeably affected. In March, I will receive a reimbursement from my supplementary dental insurance and a bonus from my employer. You can read what I'm going to invest it in in the March review. Until then!

Links:

Social media links can be found in my profile, you can also check out the Instagram version of my review.

$RSG (+0.62%)
$WM (-0.19%)

The waste management company reported adjusted earnings per share of USD 1.58 for the quarter, beating the consensus estimate of USD 1.41 by USD 0.17.

Sales amounted to USD 4.05 billion, just below analysts' forecasts of USD 4.08 billion, but 5.6% higher than in the previous year.

"We delivered another strong set of results in 2024, enabled by the effective execution of our strategy to meet the needs of our customers and grow the business profitably," said Jon Vander Ark, President and CEO of Republic Services.

For the full year 2024, Republic Services generated adjusted free cash flow of USD 2.18 billion, an increase of 10% compared to the previous year.

The company distributed a total of USD 1.18 billion to shareholders in the form of dividends and share buybacks in 2024.

Republic Services issued a forecast for 2025 that is largely in line with Wall Street expectations. The company expects adjusted earnings per share of between USD 6.82 and USD 6.90 for the full year 2025, compared to the consensus estimate of USD 6.79. Revenue is expected to be between USD 16.85 billion and USD 16.95 billion.

The solid quarterly results and optimistic outlook underscore Republic Services' ability to deliver profitable growth despite economic challenges.

The company's focus on pricing initiatives and productivity improvements appears to be paying off, as evidenced by the 110 basis point expansion of the adjusted EBITDA margin to 31% in the fourth quarter.

Waste Management $WM (-0.19%) announced its Q4 results and financial figures in the early hours of this morning "Fourth Quarter and Full-Year 2024 Earnings" [1] were published.

I would like to go into this in more detail in this article.

The earnings call is also still ongoing, which started at around 4 p.m., but has not yet revealed any new information, which is why I am posting now.

According to Deepdive, WM accounts for around 3% of the total portfolio in my portfolio through direct and indirect investments.

Before I go into the figures, I would like to briefly differentiate the difference between the published figures and the adjusted figures in the case of WM:

"Reported" & "Adjusted"

• Reportedincludes one-off costs (e.g. acquisition costs of Stericycle, restructuring).
• Adjusted: shows the core business without special effects - for better comparability.

📊 Financial year figures at a glance

• Sales: $22.06 billion (Reported & Adjusted) (+8%)
• Operating result: Reported: $4.06 billion (+13.6%), Adjusted: 4.30 bn $ (+12.2%)
• EBITDA: Reported: $6.33 bn (+12%), Adjusted: $6.56 bn (+11%)
• Net income:Reported: $2.75 bn (+19%), Adjusted: 2.92 bn $ (+16%)
• Dividend 2025: Planned $3.30 per share (+10%)

🏭 Business divisions & their development

WM is the market leader in waste management and is primarily active in Canada and the USA as its main markets, with strong growth in the USA.

Collection & Disposal

• 19.72 billion $ turnover (+5%)
• Strongest growth due to price increases (+6.7%) & optimization of operating structure.

Recycling Processing & Sales

• 1.60 bn $ turnover (+27%)
• Strong recovery due to higher raw material prices for recycled material.

WM Renewable Energy (Renewable Energies)

• 318 million $ turnover (+16.5%)
• Expansion of biogas projects; 50% of production for 2025 already sold.

WM Healthcare Solutions (medical waste)

• 403 million $ turnover (new!)
• New due to the acquisition of Stericycle; high margins expected.

💰 Financial strength & debt structure

• Cash flow from operating activities: USD 5.39 billion (+14.2%)
• Free cash flow (after investments): USD 2.32 billion (+21.8%)
• Cash position: 487 million $
• Total debt at the end of 2024: USD 24.58 billion
• Debt repayments: USD 17.87 billion in 2024
• Debt ratio target: 3.1x EBITDA by the end of 2025
• Temporary pause of share buybacks to prioritize debt reduction.

💡 Conclusion so far

• Growth drivers remain pricing, sustainable investments & Stericycle integration.
• Recycling & renewable energies will become more profitable in the medium term
• High debt due to Stericycle acquisition, but strong cash flow growth.

💼 Stericycle acquisition: expansion into the healthcare sector

On November 4, 2024, WM acquired Stericycle for $7.2 billion

Financial impact:

• 2024: $403 million in additional revenue
• 2025: Expected synergies of $100 million, $250 million by 2027
• EBITDA margin: only 1% in 2024, expected to reach 15.1% in 2025

Why Stericycle?

• Stericycle is the largest provider of medical waste disposal in North America. With this acquisition, WM is entering the healthcare sector. A growth segment with stable earnings and margins.

🌱 Sustainability projects with fast payback

WM invests heavily in renewable energy and recycling automation.

• 7 out of 20 planned biogas plants are already in operation (biogas projects have a payback period of just 3 years)

• 25 out of 39 recycling automation projects have already been completed (recycling plants pay for themselves in 6 years)

⚡️Marktposition & competitive advantages

WM is the largest waste management company in North America with:

• 12,000 natural gas trucks - largest fleet in the industry
• Largest recycling network in North America
• Market leader in landfill gas-to-energy

Why is this important?

• Leading infrastructure means economies of scale & cost leadership
• Competition can hardly keep up, which ensures stable margins

WM thus remains the top dog in the waste sector and consistently exploits its economies of scale.

💰Cost optimization and increased efficiency

In 2024, WM implemented several measures to reduce costs and increase efficiency:

• 60.7% of revenue went towards operating costs - a decrease from 61.7% in 2023
• Digital automation in recycling centers reduces labor costs in the long term
• Frontline retention programs improve employee loyalty

WM has not only grown through acquisitions, but is also optimizing existing processes.

...I have heard renewable energy and sustainability projects?...

🚨 Trump 2.0: risk for renewable projects?

Classification independent of the annual report

WM has made significant investments in renewable energy in recent years, including the development of plants to convert landfill gas into renewable natural gas (RNG). The company plans to invest over USD 1.4 billion between 2022 and 2026 in the construction of new facilities to convert landfill gas into pipeline-quality RNG. [2]

These projects are not only environmentally friendly, but also economically attractive as they will help power WM's own natural gas fleet and feed surplus energy into the grid.

Potential challenges and opportunities

Although the current government is less supportive of renewable energy projects, WM's investments in RNG may be less affected as they reduce methane emissions and thus offer environmental benefits that could be recognized even under a fossil-friendly policy.

Nevertheless, changes in the regulation and financing of renewable energy could affect the viability and expansion of such projects. WM must therefore closely monitor policy developments and adapt its strategies where necessary to achieve both environmental and economic goals.

The Trump administration favors fossil fuels and is limiting support for renewable energy. For WM, this means potential challenges, but also the opportunity to continue to operate successfully in the renewable energy sector through innovative approaches and adaptability.

🔮 Outlook 2025

Expectations for 2025: Ambitious growth targets

• WM is planning strong growth for 2025 with an increase in sales of 16.4% to up to USD 25.80 billion (driven by 5.7% organic growth and 10.7% through acquisitions)
• Adjusted EBITDA is expected to increase by 15% to up to $7.65 billion
• WM Healthcare Solutions to grow by 9%, supported by operational optimizations

🌟 The strengths:

• Defensive business model - waste disposal will always be necessary.
• Pricing power - Higher prices drive growth.
• Sustainability projects are highly profitable.
• Stericycle takeover opens up new growth areas.

⚠️ Challenges:

• High debt - pause share buybacks, focus on debt reduction.
• Trump & renewable energies - Political uncertainties, but biogas remains profitable.
• Commodity price fluctuations - recycling depends on market prices.

Personal assessment

WM remains a defensive long-term investment, but not cheaply valued. The integration of Stericycle, the sustainability strategy and the high cash flow make the company attractive. In the long term, however, I believe WM will be more affected by political influences than before. I am currently still running a savings plan, so the total share in the portfolio will rise to around 4% over the next few months.

Thanks for reading this far. Furthermore, it is understood that my personal opinion does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell.

_________

Sources:

[1] https://investors.wm.com/static-files/8b64fa87-7d93-423c-9647-defc1fe353e4

[2] https://www.waste360.com/fleet-technology/wm-s-malik-on-the-company-s-rng-investment-strategies-and-near-future-plans?utm_source=chatgpt.com

$WM (-0.19%)
$RSG (+0.62%)
$CLH (-1.46%)
$CWST (-1.02%)

$RSG (+0.62%)
$VIE (-0.03%)

Because I like his videos, here comes another analysis

And this time it's the biggest single position in my portfolio 😁

https://youtu.be/Pni2Jl4mW7I?si=KmYbNR_6-dOGrIJ2

Today was finally the day.

Just as I had long hoped and expected, $RSG (+0.62%) the smaller competitor of $WM (-0.19%) has temporarily managed to overtake its big rival on the charts 😁

Fingers crossed that this performance continues 😜 😃