JP Morgan Stock Forum

07.11.2024

iPhone sales boost revenue for chip designer Arm + Qualcomm beats expectations for fourth quarter + Novo Nordisk: weight loss and diabetes drugs flourish + Trump election victory sends bank shares sharply higher + Aurora Cannabis quarterly figures

The chip designer Arm Holdings $ARM (-2.51%) achieved higher sales in the second quarter than in the same period of the previous year. The company benefited from the sale of Apple's $AAPL (+1.15%) iPhones, Arm announced on Wednesday after the close of the US stock exchange. The British chip designer reported a profit of 30 US cents per share for the past quarter, adjusted for share-based payments and other factors. Analysts had expected a profit of 26 cents per share. Arm's turnover rose by five percent to 844 million dollars, compared to analysts' estimates of 808.4 million. However, the company forecast revenue for the current quarter to be only in the middle of estimates. Arm expects revenue to be between $920 million and $970 million, with a midpoint of $945 million, compared to the average analyst estimate of $944.3 million. The company expects third-quarter earnings of between 32 and 36 cents per share. Analysts had projected earnings of 34 cents per share for the third quarter. Arm collects a license fee for every chip sold that uses its technology. Arm's designs power almost every smartphone in the world.

The results of Qualcomm $QCOM (-1.13%) 's fourth-quarter results were better than expected as the chip supplier posted its fifth consecutive quarter of record automotive sales. Adjusted earnings per share rose to $2.69 from $2.02 a year ago, above the $2.57 consensus surveyed by Capital IQ. Non-GAAP revenue rose 18% year-over-year to $10.24 billion in the three months ended Sept. 29, beating Wall Street expectations of $9.93 billion. Qualcomm shares rose 7% in after-hours trading on Wednesday. Sales at Qualcomm's CDMA technology division, which represents its semiconductor business, rose 18% to $8.68 billion, driven by a 68% increase in the auto division to $899 million. Cell phone sales rose 12% to $6.1 billion, while the Internet of Things division increased 22% to $1.68 billion, the company said. Technology licensing revenue rose 21% to $1.52 billion. Qualcomm expects first-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $2.85 to $3.05 on revenue of between $10.5 billion and $11.3 billion.

The pharmaceutical company Novo Nordisk $NOVO B (+0.32%) continues to do good business with its top-selling diabetes and weight-loss drugs Ozempic and Wegovy. Group-wide sales of the Danish company increased by 21 percent to 71.3 billion Danish crowns (around 9.6 billion euros) in the third quarter, as the manufacturer announced in Baegsvaerd on Wednesday. The bottom line profit climbed by a good fifth to 27.3 billion Danish kroner. The Group thus performed better than analysts had expected. The management is now once again narrowing its sales and profit expectations for the year. An increase in revenue at constant exchange rates of 23 to 27 percent is now expected for the year as a whole. This is one percentage point more at the lower end, but also one percent less at the upper end than recently. The Danes are now predicting an increase in operating profit of 21 to 27 percent, excluding exchange rate effects. This means that the Group is also expecting slightly more at the lower end and slightly less at the upper end than before. In the summer, Novo Nordisk had already lowered its target for this key figure.

Donald Trump's clear victory in the US presidential election catapulted the share prices of US banks and financial services providers higher on Wednesday. Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan climbed to record highs in the Dow Jones Industrial benchmark index. Goldman $GS (+0.81%) recently gained around 12 percent, while JPMorgan $JPM (+1.21%) the gain amounted to more than 9 percent. In the S&P 500 Citigroup $C (+0.45%), Wells Fargo $WFC (+1.11%) and Morgan Stanley $MS (+0.79%) were similarly strong. Capital One Financial $COF (+0%)gained over 13 percent. A more protectionist trade policy is emerging in the USA under Trump. There is a threat of high import duties and corporate taxes could be lowered. However, debt could also increase. Bank shares benefited on Wednesday from the prospect of looser financial market regulation. In addition, interest rates could rise in view of a possible increase in debt - this would also be to the benefit of banks, for example in the lending business.

Aurora Cannabis figures $ACB (-3.14%)

• Record adjusted EBITDA1 of USD 10.1 million, an increase of 210% year-on-year
• Quarterly net revenue1 increased 29% to $81.1 million, with 41% growth in Global Medical Cannabis
• Reaffirms target of positive free cash flow1 in the quarter ending December 31, 2024
• Maintains a strong balance sheet with ~$152 million in cash and a debt-free cannabis business2

Thursday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

ex-dividend of individual stocks

H & M Hennes & Mauritz (B) 3.25 SE

BP 0.08 USD

Ford Motor 0.15 USD

Unilever 0.37 GBP

Quarterly figures / company dates USA / Asia

12:30 Moderna quarterly figures

12:55 Under Armour quarterly figures

22:00 Expedia | News Quarterly figures

Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe

06:45 Adtran Networks | Zurich Insurance | Basler Quarterly figures

07:00 Daimler Truck | Heidelberg Materials | Lanxess | Nemetschek | Nordex | Rational | Arcelormittal | AMS-Osram | Aareal | Hamborner Reit | Knaus Tabbert quarterly figures

07:15 Air France-KLM quarterly figures

07:30 Compugroup | Delivery Hero | Munich Re | Rheinmetall | Telefonica | Adyen | Deutz quarterly figures

07:30 Dürr | Instone | Koenig & Bauer | Mutares | SGL Carbon | SNP Schneider quarterly figures

07:50 Suss Microtec quarterly figures

08:00 Verbund AG | PNE | BT Group | National Grid | CRH Quarterly Figures | Rolls-Royce Trading Update 3Q

10:00 Qiagen quarterly figures

14:30 Hochtief quarterly figures

17:50 Pirelli quarterly figures

18:00 Freenet quarterly figures

Economic data

• 08:00 DE: Trade balance September trade balance calendar and seasonally adjusted FORECAST: +19.0 bn Euro previous: +22.5 bn Euro Exports FORECAST: -2.8% yoy previous: +1.3% yoy Imports FORECAST: -0.2% yoy previous: -3.4% yoy
• 08:00 DE: Production in the manufacturing sector September seasonally adjusted FORECAST: -0.9% yoy previous: +2.9% yoy | Turnover in the service sector October
• 11:00 EU: Retail Sales September Eurozone PROGNOSE: +0.5% yoy previous: +0.2% yoy
• 13:00 UK: BoE, outcome and minutes of the Monetary Policy Council meeting and Monetary Policy Report October Bank Rate FORECAST: 4.75% previously: 5.00%
• 14:30 US: Initial jobless claims (week) FORECAST: 220,000 PREVIOUS: 216,000
• 14:30 US: Productivity ex Agriculture (1st release) 3Q annualized PROGNOSE: +2.5% yoy 2Q: +2.5% yoy Unit labor costs PROGNOSE: +1.1% yoy 2Q: +0.4% yoy
• 20:00 US: Fed, outcome of FOMC meeting Fed funds target rate FORECAST: 4.50% to 4.75% Previous: 4.75% to 5.00%

All of these shares reached new ALL-TIME HIGHS at some point today ⤵️

Nvidia $NVDA (-0.57%)

Amazon $AMZN (+2.65%)

Netflix $NFLX (+1.92%)

Walmart $WMT (+1.27%)

JPMorgan $JPM (+1.21%)

Goldman Sachs $GOS0

Palantir $PLTR (+2.5%)

Blackrock $BLK

American Express $AXP (+0.25%)

Arista $ANET (+0.73%)

Apollo $APO PR A

Blackstone $BX (+1.71%)

Booking $BKNG (-0.14%)

Instacart $INSTA

Caterpillar $CAT (-0.81%)

Capital One $COF (+0%)

Discover Financial $DFS (-0.9%)

Electronic Arts $EA (+0.48%)

GE Vernova $GEV (+3.93%)

Hilton $HLT (+1.38%)

Howmet $HWM (+2.12%)

Interactive Brokers $IBKR (+0.86%)

$KKR (-0.41%)

Cheniere $LNG (-1.33%)

Morgan Stanley $MS (+0.79%)

Marriot $MAR (+0.72%)

Nasdaq $NDAQ (+1.57%)

News Corp $NWSA (-1.43%)

Oracle $ORCL (+0.55%)

Palo Alto $PANW (+1.63%)

ServiceNow $NOW (+0.92%)

Steel Dynamics $STLD (-1.07%)

Stryker $SYK (+0.89%)

Royal Caribbean $RCL (-1.03%)

Reddit $RDDT (-0.01%)

Trade Desk $TTD (-2.32%)

Visa $V (+0.57%)

Wells Fargo $WFC (+1.11%)

Another great picture of Quartr

$MA (-0.48%)
$V (+0.57%)
$JPM (+1.21%)
$BAC (+0.63%)
$GOOGL (-1.01%)
$AAPL (+1.15%)

$JPM (+1.21%)

New head of the commercial real estate business 💪

I tidied up my portfolio a bit today. This has partly to do with the fact that I think the stock market is currently running a bit hot, but it's not the decisive factor; it's simply a time when it seems wise to sell some stocks that were no longer at the top of my want list anyway.

First of all, some of you may have noticed that I have switched most of the growth portfolio to ETFs. I've also tidied up a bit there, but it's not worth mentioning.

In the dividend portfolio, I shifted a little more back and forth; although initially I only shifted to the cash portfolio and not yet shifted :D Some of you may remember that I took over some of my grandparents' shares, some of which are also old tax holdings. This is also the case here. But there's no doubt that I also had to pay a lot of tax on the non-old stock. However, I also wanted to tidy up a bit, even though the dividend portfolio was actually intended for buy and hold (forever), so sometimes it turns out that you should perhaps sell after all.

$SBUX (+1.63%) I had started to build up a position at around 85. Then came the Starbucks "crash". This forced me to buy some more. However, the position has become far too large for my dividend portfolio, so I reduced it by a little more than 1/2.

$SAP (-1.07%)
@Karl_ <- Following on from Karl's post. I have a similar view and think that the valuation is no longer really justified. I am also unsure about the German market as a whole at the moment. But after all, SAP also does a lot of business in America. 100% out

$JPM (+1.21%) Perhaps a controversial decision. But I'm not entirely convinced by JPM's return on capital, even for a bank. It is certainly a good investment, but not for me at the moment. But that's more of a gut decision. 100% out

$DHL (-1.16%)
$7974 (-2.24%) were mini positions. Question: Continue to build up or get out? The latter was the answer. I don't see an absolute reason to buy at the moment. 100% liquidated

$JNJ (+0.84%) certainly also a controversial decision. However, I am not convinced by either the performance or the fundamentals. 100% out.

$AZN (+1.19%) Bought Corona for a good reason (vaccination). Now took profits. 100% out.

That's it for now. I now have a cash ratio of almost 50%, which is of course far too much. The cash will flow partly into ETFs in the former growth portfolio and partly into dividend stocks. The main focus will be on consumer staples, industrials and healthcare - if better opportunities arise there. I will gradually build up positions there and post my reasons accordingly.

Edit: I am always grateful for ideas in consumer staples/industrials/healthcare + dividend paying.

JPMorgan
$JPM (+1.21%) reported that the 🇺🇸 economy remains stable for both consumers and large companies.

This suggests that Jerome Powell and the US Federal Reserve possibly a "soft landing" with falling inflation and healthy growth have achieved - WSJ.

14.10.2024

DAX with a new run-up to record highs? US reporting season could help + Tonies: A box conquers the world + 5 DATES that will be important this week

The reporting season in the USA and the ECB's expected interest rate cut on Thursday should provide fresh impetus for the German stock market in the new week. Billions in economic aid for China should also go down well with the stock market. The DAX could set new record highs. - The weekly outlook.

https://www.deraktionaer.de/artikel/maerkte-forex-zinsen/dax-mit-neuem-anlauf-auf-rekordhoehen-us-berichtssaison-koennte-helfen-20368031.html

Small box, big success: the interactive audio platform from Tonies $TNIE (-1.25%) not only makes children's eyes light up. The investors also have every reason to be happy.

https://www.deraktionaer.de/artikel/medien-ittk-technologie/tonies-eine-box-erobert-die-welt-20367911.html

5 DATES that will be important this week

• 1. ZEW economic expectations rise in October

The economic expectations of investors surveyed by the Center for European Economic Research for Germany are likely to have risen again in October for the first time after three consecutive declines. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires forecast that the index has risen to 9.0 (September: 3.6) points. The situation assessment index is expected to rise to 84.3 (minus 84.5) points. The Sentix economic index surveyed among the same group of people has also risen.

>>> Tuesday, 15.10.2024; 11:00

• 2. investment banking gives US institutions a boost

According to JP Morgan $JPM (+1.21%) and Wells Fargo $WFC (+1.11%) the other major US banks present their figures for the third quarter. In particular Morgan Stanley $MS (+0.79%) and Goldman Sachs $GS (+0.81%) with their relatively large investment banks, are likely to benefit from the fact that activity on Wall Street has picked up again. The universal banks Citigroup $C (+0.45%) and Bank of America $BAC (+0.63%) will also feel this. However, they are also noticing the waning tailwind in the interest-bearing business.

>>> Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup (Tuesday), Goldman Sachs (Wednesday)

• Wells Fargo reported an 11% drop in third-quarter profit to USD 5.1 billion, but beat analysts' expectations due to higher revenues at the investment bank. This led to a rise in the stock in pre-market trading, indicating a positive market reaction despite the earnings decline.
• JPMorgan Chase exceeded analysts' expectations in the third quarter with a profit of 12.9 billion US dollars, which led to a rise in the share price in pre-market trading. This strong increase in earnings compensated for higher loan loss provisions and could have a positive impact on the share price.

• 3. focus at Sartorius is on the outlook

Sartorius $SRT (-1.77%) is likely to have recorded a rather meagre business performance in the third quarter. Analysts' consensus expectations are for sales revenue to be roughly on a par with the previous year, but this is mainly due to a low basis for comparison and not yet a recovery in organic growth. The focus is on the forecast, which the DAX-listed laboratory equipment supplier lowered in July. Sartorius had referred to the high volatility and limited predictability of short-term business development and only held out the prospect of increasing demand momentum for the final quarter. The succession of Group CEO Joachim Kreuzburg, who is not seeking a further term of office after his contract expires in November 2025, is also unclear.

>>> Thursday, October 17, 2024; 07:00

• 4. the ECB takes an extra step downwards

The European Central Bank (ECB) will probably not be able to escape the pull of falling inflation rates and weaker economic indicators. Statements from ECB Governing Council members of all stripes and data suggest that the ECB will decide on Thursday to cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.25 percent - a month after trying to avoid exactly this impression. Normally, central banks try to avoid such abrupt swings. However, one must give the ECB credit for the fact that it would only be implementing its promise to adjust interest rates to the data situation.

>>> Thursday, 17.10.2024; 14:15

• 5 China's economic problems are worsening

Economic growth in China could also fall short of official targets in the third quarter of 2024, write the economists at Bank of America (BofA) in a research note. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth is likely to slow to 4.6 percent in the third quarter after 4.7 percent in the second quarter, the economists expect. Beijing has set itself a growth target of 5 percent for the year as a whole. The reluctance of Chinese politicians to take major economic measures, together with contradictory political goals, is contributing to the downturn. Many experts are concerned. Analysts at Gavekal warned at a briefing that deflation is on the way and there is little sign that Beijing's efforts to stabilize the property market and improve consumer and business sentiment are working. For the rest of the world, China's worsening problems are increasing the risk of a global economic slowdown and putting pressure on commodity prices, with a focus on China.

>>> Friday, October 18, 2024; 04:00

Monday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

Stock market holiday Canada | Japan | US bond market (US equity markets are open, however)

Quarterly figures / company dates Europe

07:00 Fraport traffic figures for September

Untimed: Volkswagen Pre-Close-Call 3Q | Bawag quarterly figures

Economic data

• 02:00 SG: GDP 3rd quarter FORECAST: +2.0% yoy/+4.0% yoy previous: +0.4% yoy/+2.9% yoy
• 04:00 CN: Foreign trade September trade balance Forecast: +89.80 bn US dollars previous: +91.02 bn US dollars Exports Forecast: +6.0% yoy previous: +8.7% yoy
• Without time specification: AT: Opec oil market report October

Week in review 12.10.

All-time highs for S&P 500, Dow Jones, Air Products & Chemicals, American Express, Arista Networks, Bank of New York Mellon, BlackRock, Caterpillar, CAVA, Fiserv, GE Vernova, Goldman Sachs, Mastercard, Morgan Stanley, Motorola Solutions, Piper Sandler, Royal Caribbean, Uber, Unum

52-week highs for Carnival, Commerzbank, GE Aerospace, Hilton Worldwide, MicroStrategy, Norwegian Cruise, Palantir, Ralph Lauren, Robinhood Markets, Sea Ltd. , Shake Shack, Tangier, Teledyne

Tesla Cybercab / Robotaxi planned from 2026 for under 30,000$. In addition, an autonomous bus with 20 seats was presented, share falls -8.1%, market is disappointed, -19% 1-year performance

Nvidia partner Hon Hai increases capacity to meet "crazy" AI demand, Nvidia shares +8.3% this week, +176% 1-year performance

AMD unveils MI325X AI accelerator to compete with Nvidia's H200, customers include Google, Microsoft, OpenAI, Dell, Oracle, Meta, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, Supermicro, Lenovo and Databricks, AMD launches EPYC 5th Gen Datacenter CPU to compete with Intel's Xeon, AMD currently has 34% market share in Datacenter CPUs, MI350 coming in 2025 to compete with Nvidia's Blackwell, AMD stock drops -4%, apparently sell the news event, +45% 1-year performance

92% of desktop processor sales at major German online retailer Mindfactory were from AMD last week, Intel only at 8% share and -36% 1-year performance

TSMC with good quarterly figures, share price rises slightly, +97% 1-year performance

JPMorgan with good quarterly figures, share +5.1%, +48% 1-year performance

Wells Fargo with good quarterly figures, share +6.5%, +49% 1-year performance

PepsiCo and Samsung with poor quarterly figures, shares fall slightly

Amazon Pharmacy announces same-day delivery of prescription drugs in 20 more US states and expands its service to almost half of the states in 2025, +43% % 1-year performance

Jefferies says Apple's hopes for an AI phone are overdone and high expectations are premature, Hold rating, +26% 1-year performance

The situation is similar at Microsoft after Oppenheimer downgraded its rating from "Outperform" to "Perform", it was the second such downgrade by analysts in recent weeks, AI sales are overestimated and shares have underperformed since July due to "AI fatigue", plus losses at OpenAI, +26% 1-year performance

Two Google scientists from the subsidiary DeepMind receive the Nobel Prize in Chemistry, they developed the AI model "AlphaFold2", which can be used to predict the structures of all 200 million known proteins, the AI is used in 190 countries, for example in the clarification of antibiotic resistance or the use of enzymes to break down plastics, Alphabet shareholders like this, +12% 1-year performance

Inperial Brands increases dividend, now pays out quarterly and buys back shares, share price rises 5%, +36% 1-year performance

FTX - customers will soon get their balances paid out after the crypto exchange went bankrupt in 2022 and the management was imprisoned

Shortseller Hindenburg Research with allegations of fraud and safety concerns for children at gaming service Roblox, share price falls -6%, even -70% since November 2021

After two very positive weeks, China stocks fall like a flash in the pan as the market expected more stimulus from the Chinese dictator. Dictator, Hang Seng with worst day since the 2008 financial crisis, this week

China strengthens real estate sector and signals more spending ahead, Finance Minister announces measures to support real estate sector today and government would now have more room to borrow and increase deficit, China also announces issuance of special government bonds today to bolster capitalization of its largest state-owned banks, Printer is coming

Fitch downgrades France's credit rating to negative due to higher deficits, government debt expected to rise to 118.5% of GDP by 2028

FTSE Russell: Greek equities on track for upgrade to developed markets, FTSE Russell to provide update as part of March 2025 review, Greek equity index up 53% since start of 2023

Porsche sells 7% fewer cars due to China slump by -29%, -5% North America but +7% Germany & Europe, -21% % 1-year performance

Deutsche Telekom increases dividend and launches share buyback program for € 2 bn, highest share price in 23 years, +33% 1-year performance

Commerzbank reaches highest share price since the euro crisis in 2011, +61% 1-year performance

Bayer with new lawsuit in the USA over PCBs, share price -7%, -41% 1-year performance

German industrial order intake fell unexpectedly sharply by 5.8% in August compared to the previous month

E.on CEO expects energy prices to rise in the long term thanks to higher taxes & levies and the world's stupidest energy policy

The Ampel expects the economy to shrink for the second year in a row, revising its GDP forecast for 2024 from +0.3% to -0.2%, only the second consecutive year of shrinking GDP since the fall of communism in 1990

After the pension insurance, the German long-term care insurance is also bankrupt, as recipients of citizens' benefits are not paying in and society is ageing, Lauterbach therefore wants to increase the monthly contribution for long-term care for all workers, so soon less net from gross again

" If you want to read a review like this every week, leave a like and subscribe.

$NVDA (-0.57%)
$AMD (-2.48%)
$TSLA (+1.2%)
$CBR
$INTC (+4.27%)
$2330
$JPM (+1.21%)
$WFC (+1.11%)
$PEP (+0.82%)
$AMZN (+2.65%)
$GOOGL (-1.01%)
$GOOGL (-1.01%)
$AAPL (+1.15%)
$MSFT (+0.97%)
$IMB (+1.05%)
$CNUA (+1.22%)
$941
$9988 (+0.86%)
$700 (-1.47%)
$1211 (+0.46%)
$P911 (-1.57%)
$PAH3 (-6.15%)
$DTE (-0.87%)
$BAYN (-5.14%)
$EOAN (-0.45%)
$PLTR (+2.5%)
$RBLX
$BLK

The quarterly revenues of JPMorgan $JPM (+1.21%) in recent years - an impressive view of the bank's continued financial strength and growth.