McDonald's $MCD (+1.05%) is one of my top 3 positions in the portfolio and not without reason:

The Group has stood for stability, strong dividends and global brand power for decades.

But even McDonald's is not immune to inflation, consumer restraint and macroeconomic headwinds.

In the following article, I categorize the Q1 figures based on the official earnings release [1] and supplementary statements from the earnings call/webcast [2].

In addition to the pure figures, it's also about loyalty programs, margin development, new menu strategies and my personal conclusion on the share.

Have fun!

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McDonald's is starting the new year with a decline in sales and profits, with business weakening in the USA in particular. Nevertheless, the company is showing global resilience, particularly through its licensed markets and the rapidly growing loyalty program.

📊 ESTIMATES VS. REPORTED

*(According to the earnings report, operating profit (EBIT) amounted to $2.65 billion; the third-party provider Quartr states a slightly different figure of $2.71 billion, which may be due to rounding or other valuation measures).

📊 Results Q1 2025

• Turnover$5.96 billion (previous year: $6.17 billion) -> decline of 3%

• Operating profit (EBIT): $2.65 billion (previous year: $2.74 billion) -> decrease of 3%

• Earnings per share (EPS):

• GAAP (incl. special effects): $2.60 (previous year: $2.66) → -2%
• Non-GAAP (adjusted): $2.67 (previous year: $2.70) → -1 %

What is GAAP vs. non-GAAP?

• GAAP: official accounting in accordance with US accounting rules
• Non-GAAP: adjusted figures, e.g. without special effects such as restructuring costs, often better suited to evaluate the "operating business"

💰 Margin & result

"Our adjusted operating margin was around 45.5%, despite declining sales."

• Ian Borden, CFO

• Operating margin down slightly (vs. 46.3% in FY 2024), but remains very robust given the environment
• Restaurant margins above $3.3 billion in Q1
• Declines in company-operated margins, especially in Europe (see brief digression)

EXCURSUS: Company-operated margin: (operating margin from company-owned restaurants)

...refers to the profit margin that McDonald's generates from the restaurants it operates itself, as opposed to franchise or licensed operations.

McDonald's operates two types of restaurants worldwide:

1 . Franchise restaurants (around 95%)

• Operated by independent entrepreneurs.
• McDonald's earns from this through franchise fees, rent and revenue sharing.

2 . Company-operated restaurants (approx. 5 %)

• Belong directly to McDonald's
• Sales and costs run entirely through the consolidated balance sheet.

Why is this margin important?

• It shows how profitable McDonald's own stores are.
• If, for example, costs for staff, food or energy rise, this puts pressure on this margin.
• In the earnings call, it was emphasized that company-operated margins were under pressure in Q1, particularly in Europe:

• cost inflation
• weaker demand
• unfavorable exchange rates

🌍 Global comparative figures (Comparable Sales):

• These are sales from existing restaurants that have been open for at least 13 months. They show organic growth without the effect of new locations.

• Worldwide: -1.0 %
• USA: -3.6 %

• International Operated Markets (IOM): -1.0 %
• International Developmental Licensed Markets (IDL): +3.5 %

What are IOM and IDL markets?

• IOM: Countries and regions in which McDonalds itself is more heavily involved (e.g. Germany, UK, France)

• IDL: Countries in which McDonald's does not operate its restaurants itself, but licenses them to local franchise partners. These partners pay fees to McDonald's but run the business independently. Examples: Japan, Middle East, parts of Asia and Africa.

📉 Why did things go worse in the USA?

The decline in sales in the USA (-3.6 % comparable sales) was mainly due to:

• Fewer guests (falling visitor numbers)
• Consumer restraint among lower income groups
• Price increases in the previous year, which are now increasingly deterring customers
• Fewer orders per visit & fewer premium products in the shopping basket (weaker product mix)

🌐 System-wide sales (system-wide sales):

• This comprises the total sales of all McDonald's restaurants, i.e. both existing and new locations, regardless of whether they are operated by McDonald's itself or by franchise partners.

• Q1 2025: -1 %
• but: +1 % at constant exchange rates

What does this mean?

Without the influence of fluctuating exchange rates, sales would have increased by 1 %. Calculated in US dollars, for example, a weak euro has a negative impact, even though the local business is stable.

🔁 Leap Day distorts comparison:

2024 was a leap year with February 29 (Leap Day), which means one more day of sales compared to 2025, making the previous year's base appear artificially higher. This makes the decline in sales appear larger than it actually is.

🎯 Loyalty program, McDonald's digital joker

Via the app or with a customer account, users receive loyalty points for their orders, which they can exchange for free products or discounts, similar to Payback but with burgers.

• $8 billion in sales in Q1 2025 with loyalty members
• $31 billion in the last 12 months
• 175 million active users (in the last 90 days), measured on a rolling basis

Why is the revenue from loyalty members higher than the Group revenue of $5.96 bn?

• The $8 billion are system sales (Systemwide Sales see above, i.e. the total sales of all McDonald's restaurants worldwide, including franchise operations.

• McDonald's Group revenue ($5.96 billion) only includes the revenue of the company itself (e.g. franchise fees & revenue from own stores).

➡ The high loyalty revenue shows how strong customer loyalty and app usage have become and how important this digital strategy is for McDonald's future.

➡️ Loyalty customers order more frequently, spend more and are less price-sensitive. The program helps McDonald's to stabilize sales and retain customers, especially in difficult economic times.

💳 Consumer climate & customer behavior

"In contrast to a few months ago, spending by middle-class consumers has now fallen almost as sharply as that of low-income households."

• Christopher Kempczinski, CEO

• Macroeconomic pressure & geopolitical uncertainty are impacting the QSR environment more than expected.
• Low- and middle-income customers are spending significantly less - especially in the USA.
• High-income customers remain relatively stable.

UnderstandingWhat is the QSR environment?

QSR = Quick Service Restaurant

This refers to the quick service restaurant sector, e.g. McDonald's, Burger King, Subway, KFC, etc.

When the "QSR industry" is mentioned in the earnings call, this refers to the competition and demand in the global fast food sector.

The "QSR environment" includes:

• Consumer behavior (how often do people go out to eat?)
• competitive pressure
• pricing strategies
• Costs (e.g. for raw materials, wages, rents)

🔎 Interim conclusion so far:

As expected, the figures show a challenging quarter with declines in sales and earnings in almost all core markets.

The USA in particular suffered from inflation, price pressure and weaker demand.

At the same time, McDonald's remains remarkably profitable with an operating margin of 45.5 %, which speaks for the resilience of the business model.

Growth in the licensed markets (IDL) and the strong loyalty program provide clear rays of hope.

For me, these are the first signs that McDonald's is structurally well positioned, even if the short-term momentum is currently slowing.

⚙️ Further initiatives & Strategy 2025:

Value-oriented menu strategy & McValue platform

"Leadership in price-performance is crucial in this environment."

• Kempczinski, CEO

• $5 Meal Deal in the USA
• EDAP menus (Every Day Affordable Price) in all 5 most important international markets
• Example France: Happy Meal for €4, menu cooperation with Ligue 1
• Example Germany: new McSmart Snacks program for price-conscious customers

Customer loyalty & marketing offensives

"Our Minecraft campaign is our biggest global campaign to date - with over 100 participating markets."

• Kempczinski, CEO

• Minecraft movie campaign with digital experience & in-store promos
• 50 years of breakfast in the US with McMuffin Day & bagel return
• In Canada: $1 coffee & field hockey promo with 50 million impressions

Innovation & new structure

"We are creating burger, chicken & beverage specialists as we compete more and more against specialized players (e.g. chains that focus only on chicken or beverages, such as Chick-fil-A or Starbucks) to develop targeted products and better compete in these segments."

• New Restaurant Experience Team
• Faster implementation thanks to integrated product/tech/supply approach
• CosMc's insights flow into new beverage tests in US stores
• New category managers for Beef, Chicken & Beverages

GBS = Global Business Services:

• McDonald's centralizes areas such as accounting, IT & controlling to save costs and work faster.

More focus on mobile orders & digitalization

• Mobile orders via app & kiosks make the ordering process more efficient, collect data and increase basket value

Investments:

• +$300-500 million CapEx planned annually until 2027
• Focus on new restaurants, modernization & technology

📉 Challenges:

• Inflation & reluctance to spend, especially in the USA & Europe
• Currency risks: Weak foreign currencies depress sales in US dollars
• Operating margin pressure: Rising costs coupled with falling visitor numbers

📌 Personal conclusion

In the first quarter, McDonald's showed that even a giant can come under pressure, especially in a weak economic environment with declining visitor numbers in the US and Europe.

Nevertheless, the share price has remained relatively stable.

At the same time, I am convinced by the long-term levers:

the strong loyalty program, targeted pricing models and the international expansion in licensed markets (IDL), which are growing solidly.

I am continuing to hold my position, as McDonald's remains a robust basic investment for me.

However, there will be no further acquisitions at the moment, as I would first like to see margins and customer numbers stabilize in the long term.

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Thank you for reading! 🤝

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Sources:

[1] https://corporate.mcdonalds.com/content/dam/sites/corp/nfl/pdf/Q1_25_Earnings_Release.pdf

[2] https://web.quartr.com/link/companies/5595/events/314423?targetTime=0.0

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$MCD (+1.05%)
$YUM (+0.87%)
$QSR (+1.62%)
$WEN (+3.01%)
$CMG (+0.09%)
$SBUX (-1.76%)
$DPZ (+1.02%)
$JACK (-0.47%)

I have been invested in Chipotle since 2023 $CMG (+0.09%) since 2023. Not only do I really like the company, I also wanted to try the food.

In Europe, Chipotle is only available in Frankfurt, France and the UK. So it's a good thing that Chipotle is in Dubai and the last stop on my trip took me there.

This gave me my first live impression of how the food is ordered there, how long the wait is and, of course, how it tastes.

Similar to other fast food chains, the order could be placed at the terminal without staff. The staff were friendly and asked during the ordering process if everything was OK and if I had any questions. I then ordered a "burrito bowl" with rice, double chicken and guacamole. I also got a soft drink to pour myself with an unlimited refill:

With the place so 80% full, we had to wait about 5-7min for our food. It tasted great, of course not comparable to a restaurant, but very good for fast food. The whole thing cost around €20 (welcome to Dubai 😅). I think that's still ok when you consider that at $MCD (+1.05%) now also comes in at around €15 per menu. The quality of the food at $CMG (+0.09%) was significantly better.

Speaking of
DubaiDubai is an amazing city, it's 43 degrees right now, incredibly modern and cosmopolitan. When you're there and experience it, you worry about Europe even more than you already do. Almost everyone speaks English, everything is signposted in English, the roads are very well developed and the people are very hospitable.

As I don't want this to turn into a travel blog, I'll stop now 🙈

Stay tuned,

Yours Nico

Chipotle has recently formed a classic double top (bearish reversal formation) on the chart, which has since been confirmed.

After the break of support, I expect a more significant setback; I consider a correction to the $39.00 to $35.50 range to be realistic.

Technically, this would correspond to the typical price target of a double top, which results from the height of the formation.

In my view, the risks therefore predominate in the short term, but the share remains very interesting in the medium to long term due to its strong fundamentals.

$CMG (+0.09%)

Hermes $RMS (+0.84%) (very expensive 🤑 )

Ferrari $RACE (+1.12%)

Lululemon $LULU (+1.14%)

Just do it $NKE (+1.6%) (supposedly cheap at the moment, please do not reach into the falling knife)

Booking $BKNG (+1.52%)

Marriott $MAR (-0.32%)

Ulta Beaty $ULTA (+1.13%) and/or L'Oreal $OR (-0.8%) (much more expensive)

Mercadolibre $MELI (+0.35%)

Texas Roadhouse $TXRH (+2.05%)

Chipotle $CMG (+0.09%)

Fast Retailing $9983 (+1.19%)
(doesn't fit with the others on the list but I could imagine it as a speculative stock)

"Everything" very expensive, luxury.

I would be interested to know what your favorites are for a long-term investment?

Hello Community,

My bonus will hopefully arrive at the end of April and of course I want to invest it. I'm currently toying with the idea of dividing it up roughly as follows:

• 25% in $IWDA (+0.44%) / MSCI World
• 15% in $MEUD (+0.55%) / EuroStoxx Europe 600
• 10% in $BTC (+0.06%)

For the rest, I would like to lower my entry prices depending on the market situation:

• $MSFT (+0.27%)
• 
  $NVDA (+0.4%)
• 
  $GOOGL (+1.27%)
• 
  $NOVO B (-2.62%)
• 
  $AMZN (+0.1%)
• 
  $AMD (+1.56%)
• 
  $NKE (+1.6%)
• $HIMS (+8.65%)

Possible first entries would be the following:

• $AAPL (-0.21%)
• 
  $CMG (+0.09%)
• 
  $RACE (+1.12%)
• 
  $V (+0.74%)
• 
  $BSX (+0.42%)
• 
  $BLK

In the end, one or the other will certainly be thrown out, as I don't get a million-dollar bonus here 😥. The investment period is > 15 years, so I'm not even trying to time it here, unless the prices have gone up 40% by the end of April, which I'm not assuming. I am well aware that the MSCI World already tracks a lot of the individual stocks.

Do you still have any exciting quality stocks that are worth a look?

Thanks!

With $TXRH (+2.05%)
$CMG (+0.09%)
$MCD (+1.05%)
$DRI (+1.49%)
$DPZ (+1.02%) I have a few restaurants in my savings plan portfolio 😁

Last earnings Texas Roadhouse

• Dividend will increase by 11 % to 0.68$ increased
• Share buyback program of 500 million$

4Q 2024 4Q2023

Turnover 1.437 bn.$ 1,164 billion dollars

Net profit 115 million dollars 72 million dollars

EPS 1.73$ 1.08$

Source

https://investor.texasroadhouse.com/press-releases/press-release-details/2025/Texas-RoadhouseInc.-Announces-Fourth-Quarter-2024-Results/default.aspx

Are you in the industry and what do you have in your portfolio?

Strong growth, high margins and impressive pricing power. After the recent correction, Chipotle $CMG (+0.09%) appears to be at an interesting level - I see further potential here in the long term. 🌯🔥

#chipotle

$CMG (+0.09%)

The restaurant operator Chipotle Mexican Grill was one of the outperformers on the market in 2024. Recently, however, the shares of the restaurant chain operator have fared less well on the stock market.

Chipotle remains on course for growth

- Despite recent losses, the majority of analysts remain optimistic

- Inflation, tariffs and CEO change as risk factors

Chipotle Mexican Grill's shares gained around 35% on the NYSE in 2024. Although the company was unable to keep up with the massive share price gains that some tea stocks have enjoyed, it still outperformed the broader market.

Disappointing sales forecast vs. business outlook

In the new year, however, things have been rather mixed on the stock market: the share price has fallen by more than six percent since the beginning of the year, with a disappointing sales outlook being one of the factors that put investors off and caused the share price to fall.

However, Chipotle has recorded continuous growth and is also operating profitably: in 2024, the company's bottom line was 1.5 billion dollars - reason enough to take a closer look at the share in terms of its suitability as a value investment. After all, strong business performance in the past can be an indicator that this will continue in the future.

There have been no major sales actions by insiders in the past, which speaks for the management's confidence in the share. In addition, Chipotle has apparently found potential applications for the use of artificial intelligence in its restaurants: They are looking for ways to use the technology to prevent customers from migrating to other options. "When the model detects that a customer's behavior is changing in a certain way that indicates a propensity to churn, we take them on a new journey with personalized extras and offers to encourage them to buy again," Scott Boatwright, Chipotle's new CEO, emphasized in a conference call following the release of the latest quarterly results. "I think these things will lead to significant differentiation in the digital channel," he continued.

Expansion also remains an important cornerstone of Chipotle's future strategy: between 315 and 345 new restaurants are to be added in 2025 alone, which is expected to have a positive impact on sales growth.

Chipotle successfully combats headwind factors

However, Chipotle's business has not been running entirely smoothly recently. The fact that Starbucks poached the CEO of the restaurant chain in the summer of 2024 was not well received by investors, even though Chipotle shares were able to recoup their subsequent losses. However, the new Starbucks CEO Brian Niccol was considered a stroke of luck for Chipotle; under his leadership, the once ailing chain was brought into the digital age. As successor to Chipotle founder Steve Ells, he introduced app ordering - just in time before the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic. He also drastically revised other existing concepts and expanded the menu to include lifestyle products aimed at appealing to health and nutrition-conscious customers. Despite the economic success and digitalization that Niccol was able to achieve, there was also increasing criticism of the company. The portion sizes in particular caused displeasure among customers and even led to Chipotle being sued by shareholders. The company, which has become increasingly digitalized, was punished on social media - but nevertheless managed to remain on course for growth. The new CEO is therefore unlikely to see any need to deviate from the financially successful company policy of his predecessor.

However, Chipotle cannot completely decouple itself from economic developments. The company is struggling with high inflation - however, the restaurant operator reacted to this with price increases, which were also intended to at least partially compensate for the promised larger portions - and did so. This is because margins rose in 2024 as a whole, while many other restaurant operators had to accept cutbacks in this area.

Burrito vendors are also feeling the effects of the new Trump administration. The punitive tariffs announced against neighboring countries could have an impact on the balance sheet, particularly with regard to imports of avocados from Mexico. Around 50 percent of the fruit is currently imported from the neighboring country, which is why costs in this area could rise. Alternatively, the US company could be forced to switch to other export countries. However, according to the company, the economic consequences should remain manageable: Chipotle expects its distribution costs to rise by 60 basis points, or 0.6 percentage points. Nevertheless, there is likely to be a need for action on this front if Trump's plans for punitive tariffs of 25 percent on Mexican imports, which were initially suspended for a month, are actually implemented.

This is how analysts rate Chipotle shares

Despite possible headwind factors, analysts generally rate the share positively. Of the 24 analysts listed on TipRanks, 18 rate Chipotle shares as a buy, while six experts have issued a hold rating for the stock. The average price target is USD 67.71, which means that the share still has around 19 percent upside potential.

However, it remains to be seen whether it can be classified as a value investment against this background. Star investor Warren Buffett, who is regarded as the grandmaster of value investing, has not yet identified the share as an investment.

https://www.finanzen.net/nachricht/aktien/analysten-optimstisch-chipotle-im-check-value-perle-oder-ueberschaetzte-aktie-14209561