In the still young year, the DAX has already recorded 16 record highs, the last one only yesterday. Most other stock market indices are also close to their all-time highs.

Where can you still invest now?

Handelsblatt experts have analyzed 1,000 stocks worldwide and identified 15 recommendations in three categories:

• Five shares of companies that are growing strongly over the long term but are still reasonably valued

$FTNT (-0.46%) Fortinet | $NOVO B (+0.73%) Novo Nordisk | $GDDY (+0%) GoDaddy | $PLD (-0.26%) ProLogis | $NOW (-0.7%) Service Now

• Five shares of companies that have been paying rising dividends for at least 20 years thanks to their earnings power

$PEP (-0.03%) PepsiCo | $CVX (-0.1%) Chevron | $FPE Fuchs Petrolab | $NWN (-0.44%) Northwest Natural Holding | $SAN (+0.38%) Sanofi

• Five shares of companies that have plummeted on the stock market but have an intact business model and turnaround potential

$SLB (+0%) Schlumberger | $BIIB (-0.65%) Biogen | $GPN (-0.54%) Global Payments | $MAKSY Marks & Spencer | $VOW (-0.13%) Volkswagen

Detailed analysis can be found at "Handelsblatt"

Source: Handelsblatt | Image: ChatGPT

- Oil

- gas

- EU emissions trading

- Copper

- Aluminum

- Gold

- Silver

Link: https://shorturl.at/5VrEF

#gold
#silber
#öl
#oiel
#kupfer
#aluminium
#metall
#edelmetalle
$SHEL (-0.45%)
$TTE (+0.76%)
$ABX (+0%)
$GLDA (+0.12%)
$GOLD (-0.2%)
$LNVA
$GOLD
$DE000EWG0LD1 (+0.23%)
$B7GN
$PAAS (-0.09%)
$PHAG (+0.21%)
$SLV (+0.42%)
$1BRN
$IOIL00 (+0.06%)
$WTI
$WTI
$CVX (-0.1%)
$XOM (-0.05%)
$OXYP34
$ALEX
$OD7A
$ALUM (-0.66%)
$COPA (+1.14%)
$OD7C
$SCCO (-0.44%)
$GLEN (-0.64%)
$RIO (+2.27%)
$RIO (+1.52%)
$RIO (+2.19%)

In the following post, I would like to discuss the new US tariffs and their potential economic consequences. The background and the potential impact on inflation and companies, as well as the winners and losers on the stock market, will be discussed.

Again, of course, the stocks mentioned do not constitute investment advice, but merely serve as examples of possible beneficiaries or losers of tightening trade restrictions. Historical developments are no guarantee of future returns.

__________

In this post:

• Influence on inflation
• New tariffs in force
• Reaction of the countries
• Consequences for the global economy
• Winners & losers
• Investment opportunities

__________

The topic of "tariffs" is currently not only very present in the media, but the term "tariffs" has also been discussed with a strong increase in the past earnings calls of companies in the S&P 500, as the following chart shows [1].

The chart shows that the discussion about tariffs has intensified in recent months and is having an ever greater impact on the outlook in companies' annual reports.

The data is presented as a three-month average and broken down into various sectors, including e.g. industry, healthcare, consumer goods, information technology, etc.

I am curious to see how the stock markets will behave in the coming week. In addition to the current reporting season, the topic of "tariffs" will certainly dominate.

After the tough tariffs announced after Trump took office were not immediately enforced and there was a "slight" sigh of relief, there could now be a new reaction on the markets, as there was on Friday evening. slightly was already slightly noticeable on Friday evening when the markets turned towards the evening.

A looming trade conflict could not only affect individual companies, but also further fuel inflation in the US:

💰 Influence on inflation

On January 31, Deutsche Bank published a forecast on the potential impact of tariffs on the inflation rate [2]:

The chart compares the current forecast with the forecast before the "Trump" era and takes into account various scenarios for the passing on of tariffs (pass-through) by Canada and Mexico.

Two scenarios are considered: one with a 50% pass-through of tariffs (additional increase shown in dark green) and one with a 75% pass-through (light green). It is clear that the inflation rate could rise sharply again this year and fall again by 2027.

🛃 New tariffs in force & further measures planned

As of today, February 1, 2025, the US government and Donald Trump have imposed new import tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China:

• 25% on imports from Mexico and Canada
• 10% on imports from China

According to the White House spokesperson, these measures are, among other things, a response to the failure of these countries to stop the influx of fentanyl and illegal immigrants into the USA. [3]

But this is just the beginning:

From mid-February, the USA will also impose tariffs on strategic goods [4], including:

• computer chips
• pharmaceuticals
• Steel, aluminum and copper
• Oil and gas imports (but only from February 18 with reduced 10% tariffs so as not to burden US petrol prices immediately).

🚨 Trump relies on escalation - Canada announces retaliation

Yesterday, Canadian government representatives, including Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly, tried to prevent the tariffs in Washington, but to no avail.

Trump made it clear before his departure to Mar-a-Lago [5]:

"We have a 200 billion dollar trade deficit with Canada. Why should we subsidize Canada?"

The EU could also soon be targeted, as Trump hinted:

"Absolutely! The European Union has treated us so terribly!"

🔄 Canada's reaction:

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced that Canada will not back down and will respond with "swift and robust countermeasures".

The government is planning a three-stage retaliation strategy [5]:

• 1️⃣ Targeted punitive tariffs on US products coming from Republican states (e.g. orange juice, whiskey, ketchup, peanut butter and motorcycles).

• 2️⃣ Tariffs on steel products and machine parts from the USA.

• 3️⃣ Escalation: Stop exports of oil, gas and electricity to the USA

However, this last step in particular would be a double-edged sword, as Canada is heavily dependent on energy cooperation with the USA.

Economic experts in the US are already warning of the consequences of a trade war [5]:

• The new tariffs could increase the cost of living of an average US household by 800 dollars per year.
• The oil and gas tariffs could increase the price of petrol in the USA by up to 20 cents per liter.

But Trump remains firm:

"Maybe there will be short-term disruption, but in the long run the tariffs will make us very rich and very strong."

🌎 Possible consequences for the global economy

(a) Rising prices in the USA

• Technology & electronicsHigher chip prices are hitting companies such as Apple $AAPL (-0.56%) , Dell $DELL and HP $HPQ (-0.22%) as many of their components come from China.

• Healthcare costs: Pharmaceutical companies such as CVS Health $CVS (-0.31%) and Walgreens Boots Alliance $WBA (-0.08%) are facing higher purchasing costs.

• Construction & InfrastructureHigher steel prices are weighing on companies such as Lennar $LEN (-0.77%) D.R. Horton $DHI (-0.33%) and Caterpillar $CAT (-0.08%) .

(b) Retaliation & new trade wars?

• China could impose tariffs on US products, which could affect e.g. Archer Daniels Midland $ADM (-0.31%) Boeing $BA (-0.23%) and Qualcomm $QCOM (-0.36%) would be affected.

• The EU could make US imports more expensive, which would affect Tesla $TSLA (-1.82%) , Ford $F (-0.87%) and General Motors $GM (-0.31%) could be harmed.

(c) Effects on the stock market

• Volatility is increasing as there is uncertainty about the consequences for various industries.

• Particularly affected: Technology and automotive stocks with global supply chains.

🏆 Winners & losers - which companies will benefit, which will suffer?

Possible beneficiaries of the tariffs

US manufacturers of steel, aluminum & copper

• Nucor $NUE (-0.19%) , U.S. Steel $X (-0.64%) and Freeport-McMoRan $FCX (-0.82%) could benefit as foreign competition becomes more expensive as a result of the tariffs.

Domestic pharmaceutical and biotech companies

• Pfizer $PFE (+0.01%) Moderna $MRNA (+0.08%) and Eli Lilly $LLY (+0.15%) could gain market share.

Energy companies with US production

• ExxonMobil $XOM (-0.05%) , Chevron$CVX (-0.1%) and Expand Energy $CHK (+0.97%) could benefit from rising prices for US oil and gas.

Chip manufacturers with US production

• Intel $INTC (-0.48%) and Texas Instruments$TXN (-0.14%) have US factories and could gain market share.

😥 Companies that could suffer from the tariffs

Chip manufacturers with global supply chains

• Apple $AAPL (-0.56%) NVIDIA $NVDA (-1.24%) , AMD $AMD (-0.9%) are dependent on Asian imports and could see higher production costs.

Car manufacturers with global suppliers

• Tesla $TSLA (-1.82%) , Ford $F (-0.87%) , General Motors $GM (-0.31%) are under pressure because components from Mexico and Canada could become more expensive.

Companies with strong export business

• Boeing $BA (-0.23%) and Caterpillar $CAT (-0.08%) suffer from possible retaliatory tariffs.

US retailers with a high import share

• Walmart $WMT (-0.66%) , Target $TGT (+0.6%) and Nike $NKE (-0.59%) could have to pass on rising prices to customers.

🧠 Possible investment strategies

Favor defensive sectors:

• Utilities (e.g. NextEra Energy $NEE (-0.33%) Duke Energy $DUK (-0.19%) ) and healthcare companies (e.g. UnitedHealth $UNH (-1.22%) , Johnson & Johnson $JNJ (-0.06%) ) remain more stable.

Exploit long-term opportunities in "reshoring":

• Intel $INTC (-0.48%) , Eli Lilly $LLY (+0.15%) , Nucor $NUE (-0.19%) could benefit in the long term.

Conclusion: Will the trade conflict escalate further?

With the new tariffs, Trump is taking a confrontational stance and Canada, Mexico and China are preparing for retaliatory measures. If further tariffs on European goods follow, the situation could worsen.

❓Which stocks do you think could be most affected? Which beneficiaries do you see?

Thanks for reading! 🤝

__________

Sources:

[1] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/yahoo-finance-chartbook-44-charts-that-tell-the-story-of-markets-and-the-economy-to-start-2025-105856766.html

[2] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/2-charts-show-why-markets-are-skittish-about-trumps-tariff-policy-144318249.html

[3] https://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/usa-unter-trump/trumps-verhaengt-zoelle-gegen-kanada-mexiko-und-china-110269990.html?

[4]

https://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-2025-01/64440108-trump-usa-werden-ab-mitte-februar-zoelle-auf-computerchips-stahl-sowie-oel-und-gasimporte-erheben-015.htm

[5] https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/amerika/usa-trump-strafzoelle-100.html

Hello everyone 🤘🏻👨🏻‍💻,

for fun I let ChatGPT play as my investment advisor and asked how he could invest 3.500 € in shares in shares. His answer:

📌 4x $CVX (-0.1%)

📌 5x $TTE (+0.76%)

📌 3x $ALV (+0.07%)

📌 3x $JPM (-0.76%)

📌 1x $ASML (-0.74%)

📌 1x $AVGO (-0.77%)

📌 10x $VHYL (-0.35%)

Doesn't sound so wrong to me 👀.

How would you currently invest €3,500? 👆🏻🤓

Hello everyone 🤘🏻👨🏻‍💻,

I have recently realized that my portfolio is not sufficiently focused on dividend stocks. I would therefore like to change this now and look forward to your recommendations! 📈💰

I currently have a few stocks on my watchlist that I'm taking a closer look at:

$XOM (-0.05%)

$EOAN (-0.8%)

$SHEL (-0.45%)

$ALV (+0.07%)

$MUV2 (-0.02%)

$T (-0.39%)

$CVX (-0.1%)

$TTE (+0.76%)

I'm also looking a little more closely at oil stocks at the moment, as "Drill, baby, drill" ~ Donald Trump is back in vogue.👆🏻

Which dividend stocks do you have in your portfolio or on your watchlist? I am curious! 🤘🏻🤓

Well vltts there are still some on the shortened 30.12. 😅

$CVX (-0.1%) x600

$XOM (-0.05%) x600

I expect both of them to increase earnings during the Trump era, which can at least be reflected in the dividend, and that's really my only concern

$8001 (-0.81%) x1000

$DB1 (+0.14%) x100

$MSCI (-1.06%) x80

$DHL (-0.3%) x1000

-> I thought this was a good place to build up a position. I'm not entirely sure whether we'll see price growth here at some point, but they probably won't fall much further (hopefully)

$DTE (+1.34%) x3000

What is nuclear fusion?

The nuclear fusion is a process in which two light atomic nuclei - usually hydrogen isotopes such as deuterium and tritium - fuse together to form a heavier nucleus. An enormous amount of energy is released in the process because part of the mass of the nuclei is converted directly into energy. This also happens in the sun and other stars, which emit light and heat as a result.

Difference to nuclear power (nuclear fission):

-Nuclear fusionHere, atomic nuclei fuse together. The starting materials (hydrogen isotopes) are abundant in nature and do not produce long-lived radioactive waste. There is no chain reaction, so there is no risk of a nuclear catastrophe.

-Nuclear fissionThis is where a heavy atomic nucleus (e.g. uranium or plutonium) is split into smaller nuclei, producing energy and radioactive waste. The reaction must be strictly controlled to prevent a "super-GAU".

Nuclear fusion would therefore be safer and more environmentally friendly than nuclear power, but has not yet been fully mastered technically.

Several listed companies are involved in the development of nuclear fusion or are investing in corresponding start-ups:

-Lockheed Martin Corporation $LMT The company was working on a compact fusion reactor, the Compact Fusion Reactor (CFR). However, this project was discontinued in 2021.

-Chevron Corporation $CVX (-0.1%) Chevron is investing in the transition to renewable energy and has invested in nuclear fusion companies such as TAE Technologies and Zap Energy through Chevron Technology Ventures.

-Equinor ASA $E1QN34 Equinor Technology Ventures has acquired a minority stake in Commonwealth Fusion Systems (CFS), a leading developer of fusion energy technology.

-Eni S.p.A. The Italian energy company is an early investor in Commonwealth Fusion Systems and supports its path towards the commercialization of fusion energy.

-Alphabet Inc. $GOOGL (-0.77%) Google's parent company has been working with TAE Technologies since 2014 and has made an investment of 250 million US dollars in the company in 2022.

The prospects for the success of nuclear fusion are increasingly viewed positively, particularly due to recent technological advances and significant investments. Nevertheless, there are still considerable challenges to commercialization, such as the technical feasibility, economic viability and scalability of the technology. The main risks lie in the uncertainty as to whether and when nuclear fusion will be available as a reliable source of energy. The risk/reward ratio therefore depends on further scientific breakthroughs and the ability to implement the technology efficiently and safely.