Posts
4Here are the stocks being added to the index:
DoorDash $DASH (-5.77%)
TKO Group $TKO
Williams Sonoma $WSM (+2.91%)
Expand Energy $CHK (-7.84%)
Here are the stocks being removed from the index:
Borgwarner $BWA (-4.25%)
Teleflex $TFX (-3.6%)
Celeanese $CE (-12.95%)
In the following post, I would like to discuss the new US tariffs and their potential economic consequences. The background and the potential impact on inflation and companies, as well as the winners and losers on the stock market, will be discussed.
Again, of course, the stocks mentioned do not constitute investment advice, but merely serve as examples of possible beneficiaries or losers of tightening trade restrictions. Historical developments are no guarantee of future returns.
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In this post:
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The topic of "tariffs" is currently not only very present in the media, but the term "tariffs" has also been discussed with a strong increase in the past earnings calls of companies in the S&P 500, as the following chart shows [1].
The chart shows that the discussion about tariffs has intensified in recent months and is having an ever greater impact on the outlook in companies' annual reports.
The data is presented as a three-month average and broken down into various sectors, including e.g. industry, healthcare, consumer goods, information technology, etc.
I am curious to see how the stock markets will behave in the coming week. In addition to the current reporting season, the topic of "tariffs" will certainly dominate.
After the tough tariffs announced after Trump took office were not immediately enforced and there was a "slight" sigh of relief, there could now be a new reaction on the markets, as there was on Friday evening. slightly was already slightly noticeable on Friday evening when the markets turned towards the evening.
A looming trade conflict could not only affect individual companies, but also further fuel inflation in the US:
💰 Influence on inflation
On January 31, Deutsche Bank published a forecast on the potential impact of tariffs on the inflation rate [2]:
The chart compares the current forecast with the forecast before the "Trump" era and takes into account various scenarios for the passing on of tariffs (pass-through) by Canada and Mexico.
Two scenarios are considered: one with a 50% pass-through of tariffs (additional increase shown in dark green) and one with a 75% pass-through (light green). It is clear that the inflation rate could rise sharply again this year and fall again by 2027.
🛃 New tariffs in force & further measures planned
As of today, February 1, 2025, the US government and Donald Trump have imposed new import tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China:
According to the White House spokesperson, these measures are, among other things, a response to the failure of these countries to stop the influx of fentanyl and illegal immigrants into the USA. [3]
But this is just the beginning:
From mid-February, the USA will also impose tariffs on strategic goods [4], including:
🚨 Trump relies on escalation - Canada announces retaliation
Yesterday, Canadian government representatives, including Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly, tried to prevent the tariffs in Washington, but to no avail.
Trump made it clear before his departure to Mar-a-Lago [5]:
"We have a 200 billion dollar trade deficit with Canada. Why should we subsidize Canada?"
The EU could also soon be targeted, as Trump hinted:
"Absolutely! The European Union has treated us so terribly!"
🔄 Canada's reaction:
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced that Canada will not back down and will respond with "swift and robust countermeasures".
The government is planning a three-stage retaliation strategy [5]:
However, this last step in particular would be a double-edged sword, as Canada is heavily dependent on energy cooperation with the USA.
Economic experts in the US are already warning of the consequences of a trade war [5]:
But Trump remains firm:
"Maybe there will be short-term disruption, but in the long run the tariffs will make us very rich and very strong."
🌎 Possible consequences for the global economy
(a) Rising prices in the USA
(b) Retaliation & new trade wars?
(c) Effects on the stock market
🏆 Winners & losers - which companies will benefit, which will suffer?
Possible beneficiaries of the tariffs
US manufacturers of steel, aluminum & copper
Domestic pharmaceutical and biotech companies
Energy companies with US production
Chip manufacturers with US production
😥 Companies that could suffer from the tariffs
Chip manufacturers with global supply chains
Car manufacturers with global suppliers
Companies with strong export business
US retailers with a high import share
🧠 Possible investment strategies
Favor defensive sectors:
Exploit long-term opportunities in "reshoring":
Conclusion: Will the trade conflict escalate further?
With the new tariffs, Trump is taking a confrontational stance and Canada, Mexico and China are preparing for retaliatory measures. If further tariffs on European goods follow, the situation could worsen.
❓Which stocks do you think could be most affected? Which beneficiaries do you see?
Thanks for reading! 🤝
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Sources:
[4]
[5] https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/amerika/usa-trump-strafzoelle-100.html
Increase in Expand Energy $CHK (-7.84%)
As mentioned before, this is the largest US natural gas producer (among others)
Besides me, there are also other big investors 😜
e.g. T. Rowe Price, Blackstone, Blackrock, Vanguard, Oaktree and a few others....
New addition Expand Energy
$CHK (-7.84%)
Expand Energy was recently formed through the merger of Chesapeake Energy and Southwestern Energy. It is now one of the largest natural gas producers in the USA.
Expand Energy is active in the field of fracking, particularly in the extraction of natural gas. The company uses hydraulic fracturing (fracking) to extract gas from shale formations and other unconventional reservoirs. This process is a key part of their strategy as it enables them to efficiently extract large quantities of natural gas and maintain their production capacity.
The original companies before the merger:
Chesapeake Energy: A pioneer in the shale gas revolution, focused on the exploration and production of natural gas. It was a leader in the development of unconventional energy resources and was an early investor in the export of liquefied natural gas (LNG).
Southwestern Energy: Strong presence in shale gas areas with a stable base in the exploration and production of natural gas and crude oil.
The new company Expand Energy is largely controlled by institutional investors. The largest shareholders include:
Vanguard Group, Blackstone Inc. and Blackstone, BlackRock Inc. and T. Rowe Price
The merger has not only increased operational efficiency, but has also positioned Expand Energy to capitalize on growing global energy demand and LNG exports.
Donald Trump pledged extensive support for fracking as part of his 2024 election campaign. His key promises include the expansion of fracking activities, particularly on federal land, and the simplification of approval procedures for energy projects.
I can imagine increasing the position twice more in 2025.
😎💲🤞🏼
