Incredible performance from $BKNG (+0.38%)
The purchase is from last year, for reference.
I love BKNG and believe that it is still fair value today.
still fair value today.
Looking forward to the first stock split.
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Booking Holding
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ISIN: US09857L1089
Ticker: BKNG
US09857L1089
BKNG
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82
4D·
Was the pandemic a bad time to start investing? (Market review & €100,000 portfolio performance update)
It is April 2020, and I am a young and hopeful student who has been studying the theory of financial education for several years and decide to take advantage of the supposedly unique opportunity of the "crash" to finally enter the stock market despite limited capital.
Theoretically, the idea was that it should be easy to get in during a difficult market phase, as all assets should be cheap due to the uncertainty. At least cheaper than they were before. When markets fall, multiples fall too. So even if you don't get everything right or even get a lot wrong, from a purely mathematical point of view you should still be better off than someone who got in in 2018 or 2019. So far, this logic is actually conclusive.
But the pandemic crash was not a normal crash. And I actually find it far too interesting not to talk about it.
In my experience, there is still a lot of talk today about the new markets in 2001 and the real estate bubble in 2008. However, the exciting market phase of the pandemic has hardly been looked back on at all. This may also be due to the fact that we don't feel we can look back at it yet, as we can still feel the effects and have barely really overcome them. However, it is now slowly becoming apparent that a new era has dawned on the market, which is primarily about tariffs, trade deficits and currencies.
But what makes the pandemic a bad time to start?
If you look back at the charts of some securities (and for the sake of clarity, I would like to refer mainly to equities here), you can see several things.
In the case of shares with a gravitas such as $BRK.B (-0.35%) only a tiny corona dent can be seen on the long-term chart. From this you can see that it didn't really matter when you invested. However, the earlier the better. It was important to invest at all, but it was not necessary to wait for a specific point in time. However, this even applies to clear pandemic losers such as $BKNG (+0.38%) and $EVD (+0.09%) .
For some stocks like $AMZN (-0.18%) and $MSFT (+0.58%) the entry point during the actual crash was not ideal. There was an optimal entry point for both stocks recently, but this would not have been apparent until 2-3 years after the crash. Both stocks survived the pandemic almost unscathed, but were then affected by severe secondary factors that put the business under pressure.
Stocks like $TMO (-0.19%) or $AFX (-1.77%) were considered pandemic winners. You could have picked them up at the beginning of the crash ... or you could have left them alone and got them back 5 years later at exactly the same price as before the pandemic started.
And now the worst category: hype stocks. The absolute catastrophe happened to all those who were looking for opportunities where there were actually none. Whether investments in emerging markets or hopes for the future in $ZM (+1.16%) and $FVRR (+1.17%) - Money that was taken out of the broad market ended up largely concentrated in assets that will not reach their ATH for another 20 years. Anyone wanting to be in it for the long term found their Waterloo in the pandemic. Some companies such as $EUZ (+3.26%) or $SRT (+0.11%) may well be doing great things. But here the "crash" was simply the absolute worst entry opportunity of the entire decade.
Correction Edit: I only found a group of stocks that I really needed to buy in the crash and that was Big Oil. There were certainly other stocks that were a bit cheaper at the time. But for the most part, it was not essential to enter at the low point in order to make good returns. That is what made this market phase so difficult. The good stocks were NOT extremely cheap, but there were many bad stocks that were extremely expensive. For newcomers, such a situation is incredibly difficult to navigate.
I closed 2020 with +12% and 2021 with +8% only to get a -22% in 2022. So I didn't make any returns at all in the first 3 years and just paid a lesson.
I thought I would have been smart at least not to have entered in 2018/2019 when all shares were valued much higher on average. But I might have gained experience in these two years so that I would have had more guidance in 2020. Or I could have started in 2022/2023, when there were no more hype stocks and you could pour money into the market with a watering can and it almost always turned into a flower.
I recently saw the portfolio of a friend who restarted his portfolio in 2022. Almost the same portfolio size as mine. However, while I have made 7% p.a. since the start of my portfolio, he has an IZF of 15%. With a portfolio size of 100k, this means that I am sitting on €12,000 book profits and he on €33,000
Backtests are currently showing that my strategy has really put me to sleep and put me to sleep by ALL known and common indices over 5 years. The only consolation here is really the 3-year performance, where it is clear that I can keep up with the major indices and also leave a few big names behind me.
So on a positive note: I'm getting better.
3535
47 Comments
There is always someone who does it better than you.
Maybe your friend drives with more risk to get the 15%, but you might have more stability🧐
Comprehensive insurance is more expensive than third-party liability, but you're in a better position in the event of a claim. And no, I don't work for Check24😄
Maybe your friend drives with more risk to get the 15%, but you might have more stability🧐
Comprehensive insurance is more expensive than third-party liability, but you're in a better position in the event of a claim. And no, I don't work for Check24😄
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1313
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4D·
My investable universe
When I‘m screening markets for my investable universe I look for high-quality compounders with:
- Strong and consistent capital returns (ROCE)
- High and stable profitability (gross, operating, and FCF margins)
- Steady revenue growth over time
- Large market capitalization (mature, established companies)
In detail I’m screening for:
- Market Cap: at least $ 10B
- ROCE 3-Year Avg: ≥ 25%
- ROCE 10-Year Avg: ≥ 25%
- Gross Margin 3-Year Avg: ≥ 50%
- FCF Margin 3-Year Avg: ≥ 20%
- Operating Margin 10-Year Avg: ≥ 25%
- Revenue per share CAGR 3-Year: ≥ 5%
- Revenue per share CAGR 10-Year: ≥ 5%
- FCF per share CAGR 3-Year: ≥ 10%
- FCF per share CAGR 10-Year: ≥ 10%
- Consistency/stability of earnings (from max. 1.0): ≥ 0.8
- No more than 75% revenue exposure to one single country/market (eg. USA)
Here are my current holdings:
33
5D·
My Portfolio
Today I‘m sharing with you my main portfolio. This doesn’t include any ETF investments and crypto currencies / gold etc. since I want to focus my presence on getquin on stock-picking.
Read my 3-part portfolio strategy posts to get the full picture - here are just the main pillars of what I‘m doing:
- Long-term buy and hold (average holding time 5+ years at least)
- Focus on high-ROIC compounders riding secular trends (top-tier capital efficiency)
- High margins, strong FCF growth, large moats (7 powers strategy)
- Holding not more than 20 stocks at a time while mainly focusing on US and EU based companies
I like to divide my holdings into „core holdings“ (forever stocks) and „trend picks“ (2030 stocks) as follows:
Core Holdings (“Forever Stocks”):
- $MSFT (+0.58%)
$ADBE (+0.91%)
$META (+0.56%)
$MA (+2.05%)
$AMZN (-0.18%)
$OR (+2.06%)
$MC (+0.1%)
$RMS (+1.72%)
$EL (-0.32%)
$BRK.B (-0.35%)
$MSCI (-0.38%)
$SPGI (-0.13%)
Growth Picks (“2030 Stocks”):
20Positions
37.12%
1010
2 Comments
Amazon 2,5k% Plus damn what’s you’re buy in on that one
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22
•1Wk·
My portfolio strategy (part 3)
I use the 7 Powers framework from the book “7 Powers: The Foundations of Business Strategy” by Hamilton Helmer. It’s a killer framework for understanding why some businesses create lasting value and compound returns over time.
Each “Power” is a sustainable strategic advantage that lets a company generate outsized returns for a long time. I ask the 7 questions for each stock I am considering to buy.
1. Counter-Positioning
- What it is: A new entrant adopts a superior business model that incumbents can’t copy without damaging their own biz.
- Example: Netflix vs. Blockbuster. Blockbuster couldn’t move to streaming without killing its DVD revenue.
- Why it matters: Creates asymmetric pressure; the old guard is paralyzed.
2. Scale Economies
- What it is: Unit costs drop as volume increases.
- Example: Amazon, Costco. Bigger = cheaper = stronger moat.
- Why it matters: Hard to compete if you can’t match their cost base.
3. Switching Costs
- What it is: Customers stick around because switching is painful.
- Example: Adobe Creative Cloud, Microsoft Office, Salesforce.
- Why it matters: High retention = stable cash flows = compounding machine.
4. Network Effects
- What it is: The product gets better as more people use it.
- Example: Meta, Visa, LinkedIn.
- Why it matters: Leads to dominance, creates a feedback loop of growth.
5. Branding
- What it is: Emotional or symbolic value, not just functional.
- Example: L’Oréal, Hermès, Apple.
- Why it matters: Lets companies charge premium prices and keeps customers loyal even if alternatives exist.
6. Cornered Resource
- What it is: Exclusive access to a critical asset — talent, IP, data, supply.
- Example: ASML (EUV tech), Novo Nordisk (Ozempic IP), Ferrari (brand + heritage + team).
- Why it matters: If no one else can get it, you win.
7. Process Power
- What it is: Unique internal processes that drive efficiency, innovation, or quality — and are hard to copy.
- Example: Toyota (lean manufacturing), Amazon (logistics, culture of innovation).
- Why it matters: Long-lasting edge baked into the org’s DNA.
If I had to chose one, Network effects would be the most important one for me.
Here are my current holdings:
33
2Wk·
My portfolio strategy (part 2)
- Concentrate on the following sectors: Tech, consumer, healthcare, financial (excluding banks), industrials
- Smallest position size 2% / largest position size 15%
- Only sell a position when it can be replaced with a position that increases the overall quality of the portfolio
- Avoid companies with little to no track record or companies going through a restructuring phase
Here are my current holdings:
88
2 Comments
I see a lot of similarities to my strategy! Could it be that you watch a certain Youtuber with the initials JC? 😏
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11
•3Wk·
My portfolio strategy (part 1)
My Portfolio is a selection of 15-25 companies which I am buying and planning on never selling. The overall criteria for my #investableuniverse are the following. I will go in-depth in another post:
- Little capital needed to run the business (high ROCE)
- High returns on invested capital (high ROIC)
- Profitability track-record with high gross margins / operating margins / high free cash flow margins
- High free cashflow growth / substantial revenue growth
- Global revenue diversification
- Low cyclicality
- #tollbooth Company - Large moat / brand name in the industry / no alternatives to the product
- Predictable sources of future growth / global trends
Here are my current holdings:
4Wk·
Watched for a long time and now struck
I have been watching Booking Holdings ($BKNG (+0.38%)) for around two years and hesitated for a long time. Despite the higher share price (~+50%), I now see an attractive entry point. The decisive factor for me is the clear vision of the management to expand the offering beyond pure accommodation ("Connected Trips": flights, attractions, etc.) and to use AI strategically. As a result, I see $BKNG (+0.38%) strongly positioned to grow further and assert itself as the market leader. The solid balance sheet and significant share buybacks and dividends are very positive in my opinion and give me additional confidence.
1717
9 Comments
I have been with Booking since 1.3.22 and will remain in the portfolio for a long time 🤑
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22
•1Mon·
April Rebalancing: Strategic Shifts in the Portfolio
The semi-annual rebalancing of the SPDR S&P Developed Quality Aristocrats ETF ($QDEV (-0.08%) ) has just been completed, bringing notable changes to the composition of this quality-focused investment vehicle.
Outgoing Companies:
- RELX PLC$REL (+0.08%)
- Keyence Corporation $6861 (-2.26%)
- London Stock Exchange Group plc $LSEG (+0.74%)
- Booking Holdings Inc. $BKNG (+0.38%)
- Industria de Diseno Textil S.A. (Inditex) $ITX (+1.08%)
- Texas Instruments Incorporated $TXN (-2.4%)
- Cencora Inc.$COR (+0.38%)
- Coloplast A/S Class B$COLO B (+0.42%)
- Moncler SpA $MONC (+0.27%)
- Cardinal Health Inc. $CAH (+0.39%)
- CAR Group Limited $CAR (-0.49%)
- Waters Corporat $WAT (-1.79%)
- Nova Ltd. $NVMI (-2.29%)
- Monolithic Power Systems Inc. $MPWR (-2.56%)
Incoming Companies:
- Alphabet Inc. Class C$GOOG (-0.19%)
- Nintendo Co. Ltd.$7974 (-2.74%)
- S&P Global Inc. $SPGI (-0.13%)
- InterContinental Hotels Group PLC $IHG (-0.98%)
- Bristol-Myers Squibb Company $BMY (+1.81%)
- Intercontinental Exchange Inc. $ICE (+0.9%)
- Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc. $REGN (-18.79%)
- Motorola Solutions Inc. $MSI (-0.42%)
- Marriott International Inc. Class A $MAR (+0.25%)
- Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. $HLT (+0.09%)
- Industrivarden AB Class C$INDU C (-0.08%)
- EMS-CHEMIE HOLDING AG$EMSN (+1.25%)
- D'Ieteren Group SA/NV $DIE (+0.14%)
- Electronic Arts Inc. $EA (+0.23%)
- CK Infrastructure Holdings Limited $1038 (+2.44%)
This rebalancing aligns QDEV with evolving market conditions while maintaining its focus on quality companies with strong financial foundations. For investors seeking exposure to financially robust global corporations, these changes appear strategically sound, particularly with the inclusion of resilient tech giants and hospitality leaders positioned for growth.
Will this prove to be a winning choice? The fundamentals certainly suggest so.
66
1Mon·
Booking Holdings Q1'25 Earnings Highlights:
🔹 Adj EPS: $24.81 (Est. $17.45) 🟢; UP +22% YoY
🔹 Revenue: $4.76B (Est. $4.59B) 🟢; UP +8% YoY
🔹 Gross Bookings: $46.7B (Est. $46.47B) 🟢; UP +7% YoY
🔹 Adj EBITDA: $1.09B (Est. $849.8M) 🟢; UP +21% YoY
🔹 Room Nights Booked: 319M (Est. 316.63M) 🟢; UP +7% YoY
Operating Metrics
🔹 Free Cash Flow: $3.2B; UP +23% YoY
🔹 Net Cash from Operating Activities: $3.3B; UP +21% YoY
🔹 Adjusted EBITDA Margin: 22.9% (vs. 20.3% in Q1 2024)
Marketing & Expense Metrics
🔹 Marketing Expense as % of Gross Bookings: 3.8% (vs. 3.7% YoY)
🔹 Adjusted Fixed Operating Expenses: $1.16B; DOWN -3% YoY
🔹 Total Operating Expenses: $3.7B; UP +2% YoY (below revenue growth)
Segment & Platform Highlights
🔹 Alternative Accommodation Room Nights at Booking:com: Grew double digits YoY
🔹 Constant Currency Average Daily Rates (ADRs): Increased 1%
🔹 Gross Agency Bookings: $15.5B; DOWN -13% YoY
Capital Returns
🔹 Dividend: $9.60/share declared; payable June 30, 2025
🔹 Share Repurchases: $1.8B in Q1; $25.9B authorization remaining
CEO Glenn Fogel's Commentary:
🔸 "We had a good start to 2025 with healthy room night and gross bookings growth, supported by our globally diversified business."
🔸 "While macro and geopolitical uncertainties persist, we continue to drive long-term value for partners and travelers through our strategic priorities."
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