Has the breakout at $BABA (+0%) successful in the medium term? How do you assess the impact of Trump and China in general?

Podcast episode 73 "Buy High. Sell Low."

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00:00:00 Donald Trump inauguration

00:15:40 Tempus AI A40EDP $TEM

00:26:00 Groupon $GRPN (-0.34%)

00:30:20 Palantir $PLTR

00:35:00 Insider Trading

00:40:20 Netflix $NFLX (+0.22%)

00:59:00 Adobe AI $ADBE (+0.73%)

01:01:00 Alibaba $BABA (+0%)
$9988 (+0%)

01:07:40 Baidu $BIDU (+0%)
$9888 (+0.13%)

01:15:15 JD com $9618 (-0.01%)
$89618
$JD (+0%)

01:16:40 PDD Holdings $PDD (+1.13%)

01:19:00 Xpeng $9868 (+0%)
$XPEV (+0%)

01:21:00 Nio, BYD, Xiaomi, Huawei $9866 (+0%)
$NIO (+0.06%)$1810 (+0.01%)
$XIACY (+0%)
$81810

01:28:00 Li Auto $AUTO (+0.12%)
$LI (+0%)

01:35:20 Bitcoin $BTC (-0.27%)

Spotify

https://open.spotify.com/episode/4xzXvdMeMtWs5fgYoQaNHU?si=3JuxaaqaQ2KM55PHh5IYWg

YouTube

https://youtu.be/tz6CaqL8wtc

Apple Podcast

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/folge-73-netflix-tempus-ai-palantir-alibaba-bitcoin/id1695869891?i=1000685089794

#bitcoin
#palatir
#aktien#podcast
#spotify

I would like to initiate a discussion on the occasion of the recently announced 500 billion dollar Stargate project in the USA.

Do you think it is possible for Europe to catch up with the existing technological backlog? Or is "Stargate" the final nail in the coffin? And which countries do you see at the forefront of the AI age in the future?

For me, these countries are on the winning side:

USA 🇺🇸 - The USA has been at the forefront of technology right from the start. OpenAI (ChatGPT), Alphabet $GOOGL (+0.62%) (Gemini), Meta $META (+0.18%) Microsoft $MSFT (+0.56%) .... The list of companies relevant to the industry is long. Nowhere else in the world is more invested in AI. "Stargate" will now increase this imbalance many times over

China 🇨🇳 - China acts independently of the West and yet is still a major player with companies such as Tencent $TCEHY (+0%) , Alibaba $BABA (+0%) , Huawei, Xiaomi $1810 (+0.01%) and Baidu $9888 (+0.13%) are ideally positioned. Chinese companies are fast and innovative. The gigantic subsidies from the Chinese government also play a decisive role in this context. Another advantage is that the Chinese are currently receiving energy from Russia virtually as a gift.

Japan 🇯🇵 - With SoftBank, Japan has $9984 (-0.99%) a real AI champion in its country. In Japan, NVIDIA and SoftBank $NVDA (+0.75%) and SoftBank are building a joint innovative AI infrastructure. The fact that SoftBank and OpenAI are to be the lead partners in the Stargate project and that Masayoshi Son (CEO of SoftBank) will chair the new company will benefit Japan. The huge assets that are being built up there will flow back into the home country in one way or another. The close cooperation with the government (+high subsidies), the leading position in robotics and the recent developments in the semiconductor industry should also be noted.

Singapore 🇸🇬 - Very small country, lots of money, very good government, very well-educated population, lots of expats, lots of foreign investment, very few logistical challenges as a city state...... So things are looking VERY good for Singapore.

UAE 🇦🇪 /Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦/Qatar 🇶🇦 - Rich Gulf states that will invest billions in AI projects abroad (e.g. UAE participation in "Stargate"). They will generate large returns on these investments, while at the same time investing in the digitalization of their own country, thereby bringing great prosperity to their relatively small populations. Although there is also a large expat community in the UAE, including in the field of AI, I think that the Gulf states will mainly benefit from their investment funds.

I am unsure about these countries unsure:

Canada 🇨🇦 - Canada is innovative and wealthy, but there are not really any relevant companies in the AI sector. In addition, the universities are middle class and they lose a lot of talent to their neighbor, the USA. However, the country has potential, also because it is very attractive for foreign specialists.

Taiwan 🇹🇼 - TSMC $2330 from Taiwan supplies the world with chips, including those urgently needed for AI, but the country's heavy dependence on a single company, which has recently been expanding abroad (especially Japan and the USA), poses a risk. The development of the conflict with China and the possible success of Rapidus from Japan and Samsung in the field of 2nm chips will also be decisive for Taiwan's future in the field of AI.

South Korea 🇰🇷 - Technological leader, politically unstable. Companies like Samsung $005930 and SK Hynix $000660 from South Korea are leaders in the field of AI. There is a great deal of expertise in the country and the government is also supporting the transformation. However, I am unsure about the excessive dependence on the chaebols (e.g. Samsung), which account for an unhealthily large proportion of economic output. The dysfunctionality of the rule of law due to corrupt politicians and courts, the recent very tense domestic political situation and the constant threat from neighboring North Korea should also be viewed critically.

India 🇮🇳 - The next few years will show whether India can become the new China. India is growing dynamically and, with its 1.4 billion inhabitants, has a huge potential workforce, but it is still heavily dependent on foreign know-how. India is not as innovative as developed countries and has to deal with domestic challenges such as hunger, which could make investment in AI more difficult. Indian companies are very open to AI and are trying to adapt it quickly, but developing it is another matter.

The Netherlands 🇳🇱 - With ASML $ASML (+0.56%) the Netherlands is home to one of the most important companies when it comes to AI. Without ASML's machines, the particularly advanced chips required for AI could not be produced. This puts the Netherlands, with its small population, in a rather comfortable position. However, it is also heavily dependent on a single company, which is also increasingly being targeted by geopolitics, with the result that the USA regularly blackmails the Netherlands to dictate where it has to deliver these machines. Recently, there have also been developments that threaten ASML's monopoly.

Germany 🇩🇪 - Germany is good at AI research, but there is a lack of AI champions. Companies such as Siemens $SIE (+0.1%) are doing well in terms of industrial AI and SAP is also $SAP (+0.1%) is investing heavily in its own AI, but there is still no sign of a German export hit in the field of AI. There is also a massive lack of investment in AI infrastructure and politicians are blocking rather than promoting. There is a general lack of a national vision, a combination of strategic policy and large-scale private investment, as is the case in other countries. The EU is also more of an obstacle to new investments. The concept of joint ventures is also used less in this country, although this could help to pool knowledge and resources in order to make a difference for one's own country. So all is not lost, but a political reorientation and new entrepreneurial courage are needed to catch up, which is getting bigger every day.

France 🇫🇷 - The French are also innovative and have an AI star in their country with Mistral AI, but they have similar problems to the Germans. Politics at national and EU level and the lack of major investments and new infrastructure are paralyzing the country.

UK 🇬🇧 - With universities such as Oxford and Cambridge, the UK has been conducting top-level research for a long time, including in the field of AI. They are innovative with many expats from abroad, although recently less from continental Europe. Unfortunately, however, they do not have any notable tech companies to call their own. Two of the most innovative tech companies and British hopefuls, ARM $ARM (+1.84%)

and Graphcore, are now both owned by the aforementioned Japanese SoftBank Group, but this does not mean that the UK can no longer benefit from the positive development of these companies. Nevertheless, they are no longer British.

ConclusionIt will not be easy for Europe to catch up. The competitors are mostly fast, very financially strong, innovative and led by visionaries. We cannot compete with a fragmented capital market, slow decision-making processes and bureaucrats from Brussels. However, it is also clear that the potential is there. We (still) have many bright minds here, but without a fundamental change in policy, decisive reforms and some pioneering spirit, I believe it will be impossible to catch up. The window of opportunity is getting smaller.

How do you see it all? Do you disagree somewhere or are you missing an important country?

"Buy high. Sell Low." Podcast episode 70: Eleven predictions for 2025

Subscribe to the podcast to help Palantir break $100.

00:00:00 New Macbook Air M3 16GB

00:05:00 US economy under Trump, FED interest rate cuts

00:17:00 Takeovers, Lyft, UPS, Amazon, Tesla

00:23:00 Electricity price, energy shortage due to AI

00:26:00 Europe

00:29:00 German federal election

00:35:00 France

00:40:00 Debt brake

00:47:00 LVMH, L'Oreal, CAC40, Schneider

00:51:00 Alphabet, Apple, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Netflix, Nvidia, Tesla

01:00:00 Meta stock split

01:03:00 Apple innovations

01:05:00 Palantir price target 100$ #PLTRgang

01:09:00 MSCI Argentina ETF A1T965, Mercado Libre

01:18:30 Alibaba, Tencent, TSMC, China stimulus package

01:28:20 Bitcoin price targets and bets

01:41:00 S&P 500 price targets

Spotify

https://open.spotify.com/episode/3j6khBZVKEZsyDxdp3UEK2?si=ZZ_DKfrrTUKBPzpkuS4oQA

YouTube

https://youtu.be/ZMsQbBbjQgE

Apple Podcast

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/folge-70-elf-prognosen-f%C3%BCr-2025/id1695869891?i=1000682989981

#podcast
#spotify
$PLTR (+0.17%)
$META (+0.18%)
$GOOG (+0.63%)
$GOOGL (+0.62%)
$MELI3
$BTC (-0.27%)
$BABA (+0%)
$9988 (+0%)

In studying MercadoLibre $MELI (+0.41%) I also looked at the world's main competitors: Amazon $AMZN (+0.45%) and Alibaba $BABA (+0%)

The findings on valuation multiples are clear: Alibaba is clearly undervalued compared to its American competitors.

EV/EBITDA

Alibaba: 8.16x

Amazon: 21.51x

MercadoLibre: 35.37x

EV/SALES

Alibaba: 1.54x

Amazon: 3.81x

MercadoLibre: 4.71x

PER

Alibaba: 17.44x

Amazon: 47.20x

MercadoLibre: 62.27x

My opinion on this discrepancy 💡 ?

1. Alibaba's growth is at half-mast (+1.6% in 2024) while MercadoLibre is growing by +31.13%.

2. China is scaring investors with its slowing growth, but also its economic and geostrategic opacity.

Do you see Alibaba's multiples as an investment opportunity? 🤔

#stockanalysis
#bourse
#stocks
#tech
#ecommerce
#valuation

Hello everyone,

Today I would like to introduce you to my recently reorganized portfolio and tell you about my motivations. Briefly about me: I'm 25 years old, currently studying for a Master's degree in business administration and working part-time as a student trainee. Starting next year, I intend to invest a savings installment of 1,000 euros every month. My stock market experience so far started in 2021/2022, and since then I have lived through almost every emotional up and down: from falling into the falling knife (Alibaba $BABA (+0%) PayPal $2PP, and many more) to speculative leveraged products and options. Fortunately, despite extreme fluctuations, I ended up at around plus/minus zero.

After dabbling in stock picking (mostly tech stocks) for a while, I realized that my biggest weakness is the lack of staying power for a consistent strategy. Neobrokers are like a game to me in a way, always tempting me to be more active. As a result, I regularly discard concepts that are actually promising - if only I had pursued them consistently. I am now learning my lesson from these findings: I want to implement a long-term, broad-based ETF strategy, which I will also share and track transparently on GetQuinn.

At the end of 2024, I therefore closed all my previous positions and am making a "clean" new start. My portfolio consists of the following components:

-NASDAQ 100 (25%) $XNAS (+0.74%) - the driving force for me in terms of US technology.

-FTSE China 50 (25%)
$DBX9 (-0.08%) - offers long-term potential in a dynamically growing market in my view.

-Euro STOXX 50 (20%)
$XESC (+0.04%) - Europe as a solid addition with established companies.

-Ossiam Shiller Barclays CAPE US Sector Value (15%)
$216361 (+0.45%) - deliberately focuses on value aspects and adds substance to my tech bias.

-FTSE India (15%) $FLXI (+0.45%) - another growth theme with exciting future prospects.

I find the symmetry of the portfolio particularly reassuring (even if perhaps irrational): USA-Tech stands opposite China, USA-Value stands opposite India, and there is also a European anchor. I am investing a total of just under EUR 15,000 at the start, so the percentages correspond exactly to my expectations. In future, I plan to divide the monthly savings installment of EUR 1,000 evenly between all ETFs.

My rebalancing approach

I will not invest my special payments (e.g. vacation pay, bonuses) immediately for the time being, but will keep them available as a cash reserve. On the one hand, I want to be able to react to possible price slumps in individual markets, and on the other hand, I use the saved cash quota for rebalancing at the end of the year. I don't sell anything, but add to the ETFs that have lost the most in relative terms over the course of the year. This allows me to keep the portfolio weighting more or less in balance without having to deal with short-term fluctuations too often.

Why GetQuin?

GetQuin allows me to monitor my portfolio performance transparently and at the same time exchange ideas with the community. Above all, I hope to receive honest feedback on my chosen structure and my rebalancing approach. At the same time, the platform motivates me to stick to my strategy in the long term - because I realize every day that constantly switching back and forth often only causes additional costs and stress.

I look forward to hearing your opinions:

- What opportunities or risks do you see in this ETF selection?

- Do you have any tips on how I could make my rebalancing even more efficient?

- Are there certain markets or sectors that you think I am neglecting or overvaluing?

Thank you very much for your opinions and advice! I am looking forward to a stimulating discussion and hope that we can inspire each other.

Best regards

A (hopefully) reformed stock market enthusiast in his second attempt