Current Market expectations for Fed Rate Cuts:
-Dec 18, 2024: 25 bps cut to 4.25-4.50%
-Jan 25, 2025: No Change
-Mar 19, 2025: 25 bps cut to 4.00-4.25%
-May 7, 2025: No Change
-Jun 18, 2025: 25 bps cut to 3.75-4.00%
-Jul 30, 2025: No Change
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6๐๐ฟ๐ผ๐ต๐ ๐ป๐๐ป ๐ฒ๐ถ๐ป๐ฒ ๐ด๐ฟรถร๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ธ๐๐๐ฟ ๐โโโ
๐จ๐ฝ๐ฑ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ / ๐๐๐๐ฏ๐น๐ถ๐ฐ๐ธ ๐๐๐ฟ ๐๐ฎ๐ด๐ฒ ๐ฎ๐ป ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ป ๐๐ถ๐ป๐ฎ๐ป๐๐บรค๐ฟ๐ธ๐๐ฒ๐ป:
With today's partly very ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐๐๐น๐ถ๐ฐ๐ต๐ฒ๐ป ๐๐ฏ๐๐ฐ๐ต๐นรค๐ด๐ฒ๐ป on the markets in ๐๐๐ฟ๐ผ๐ฝ๐ฎ and the ๐จ๐ฆ๐, the starting signal for a ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ธ๐๐๐ฟ ๐๐ผ๐ป ๐ด๐ฟรถร๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐บ ๐จ๐บ๐ณ๐ฎ๐ป๐ด may now have been given.
We would now like to briefly share ๐ฑ๐ถ๐ฒ ๐ณรผ๐ฟ ๐๐ป๐ ๐๐ถ๐ฐ๐ต๐๐ถ๐ด๐๐๐ฒ๐ป ๐ฃ๐๐ป๐ธ๐๐ฒ with you:
๐ช๐ฎ๐ฟ๐๐บ ๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐๐ถ๐ฐ๐ต ๐ฑ๐ถ๐ฒ ๐ฆ๐๐ถ๐บ๐บ๐๐ป๐ด ๐๐๐น๐ฒ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฝรผ๐ฟ๐ฏ๐ฎ๐ฟ ๐ฒ๐ถ๐ป๐ด๐ฒ๐๐ฟรผ๐ฏ๐?
Firstly, the ๐๐รค๐ฟ๐ธ๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ป๐ฑ๐ฒ ๐๐ป๐ณ๐ฒ๐ธ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป๐๐ด๐ฒ๐๐ฐ๐ต๐ฒ๐ต๐ฒ๐ป that has already been in place in Asia for several weeks should be mentioned here. Triggered by the ๐๐ฒ๐น๐๐ฎ-๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ฎ๐ป๐๐ฒ now already dominating almost everywhere, case numbers are now also rising again significantly in Europe and the USA.
On the other hand, with the latest data on ๐๐ป๐ณ๐น๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป ๐ถ๐ป ๐๐๐ฟ๐ผ๐ฝ๐ฎ ๐๐ป๐ฑ ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ป ๐จ๐ฆ๐ there is now also concern, that there could be a change in thinking with regard to the ultra-loose monetary and interest rate policy of the central banks. Investors always react nervously to statements by central bankers in this regard, also with regard to the outlook for the ๐ญ๐ถ๐ป๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ตรถ๐ต๐๐ป๐ด๐ฒ๐ป planned for next year.
๐ช๐ฎ๐ ๐ธรถ๐ป๐ป๐๐ฒ ๐ฒ๐ถ๐ป๐ฒ๐ป ๐ฝ๐ผ๐๐ถ๐๐ถ๐๐ฒ๐ป ๐๐ถ๐ป๐ณ๐น๐๐๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ณ ๐ฑ๐ถ๐ฒ ๐ รค๐ฟ๐ธ๐๐ฒ ๐ต๐ฎ๐ฏ๐ฒ๐ป?
Here, the ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ฐ๐ต๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ถ๐๐ผ๐ป already started in the ๐จ๐ฆ๐ the previous week with the fresh ๐ค๐ฎ ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ต๐น๐ฒ๐ป ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐จ๐ป๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ป๐ฒ๐ต๐บ๐ฒ๐ป should be mentioned in particular. In addition to the result itself, it will depend here in particular on which ๐๐๐๐ฏ๐น๐ถ๐ฐ๐ธ the companies will announce for the full year. It will probably depend on whether the ๐๐ฟ๐๐ฎ๐ฟ๐๐๐ป๐ด๐ฒ๐ป ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐๐ป๐น๐ฒ๐ด๐ฒ๐ฟ can be exceeded here by the majority or "only" fulfilled.
๐ช๐ผ๐ฑ๐๐ฟ๐ฐ๐ต ๐นรค๐๐๐ ๐๐ถ๐ฐ๐ต ๐ฒ๐ถ๐ป๐ฒ ๐บรถ๐ด๐น๐ถ๐ฐ๐ต๐ฒ๐ฟ๐๐ฒ๐ถ๐๐ฒ ๐ฏ๐ฒ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐๐ฒ๐ต๐ฒ๐ป๐ฑ๐ฒ ๐ด๐ฟรถร๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ธ๐๐๐ฟ ๐ฎ๐ฏ๐น๐ฒ๐ถ๐๐ฒ๐ป?
First, by the very strong ๐๐ป๐๐๐ถ๐ฒ๐ด ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐ฉ๐ผ๐น๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐น๐ถ๐รค๐ today in both the VDAX-New and the VIX in the US. On the other hand also by the ๐๐ป๐ฑ๐ถ๐ธ๐ฎ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ป ๐๐ถ๐ฒ ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐ฅ๐ฆ๐ ๐ผ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐ฎ๐๐ฐ๐ต ๐ฅ๐ฆ๐ the ๐๐๐น๐ฒ๐๐๐ ๐ป๐ฒ๐ ๐บ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ธ๐ถ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐๐ฒ๐ป ๐๐ผ๐ฐ๐ต๐ in the DAX and Dow Jones ๐ป๐ถ๐ฐ๐ต๐ ๐บ๐ฒ๐ต๐ฟ ๐ฏ๐ฒ๐๐รค๐๐ถ๐ด๐ฒ๐ป ๐ธ๐ผ๐ป๐ป๐๐ฒ๐ป. With today's ๐ฅรผ๐ฐ๐ธ๐ณ๐ฎ๐น๐น ๐๐ป๐๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐ต๐ผ๐ต๐ฒ๐บ ๐จ๐บ๐๐ฎ๐๐, moreover, a ๐ง๐ผ๐ฝ-๐๐ถ๐น๐ฑ๐๐ป๐ด now threatens to complete itself in several indices at once.
As an example of this, we have attached a ๐ผ๐ฃ๐๐ก๐ฎ๐จ๐ ๐๐๐จ ๐ฟ๐ค๐ฌ ๐ ๐ค๐ฃ๐๐จ ๐๐ฃ๐๐ช๐จ๐ฉ๐ง๐๐๐ก ๐ผ๐ซ๐๐ง๐๐๐ (see photo).
๐๐ค๐ก๐๐๐ฃ๐๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐๐ฉ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐๐๐๐ฃ ๐จ๐ค๐ก๐ก๐ฉ๐ ๐ข๐๐ฃ ๐ฃ๐ช๐ฃ ๐รผ๐ง ๐จ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐ฃ๐ฉ๐ฌ๐ค๐ง๐ฉ๐๐ฃ, ๐ช๐ข ๐๐๐จ๐จ๐๐ง ๐ซ๐ค๐ง๐๐๐ง๐๐๐ฉ๐๐ฉ ๐ฏ๐ช ๐จ๐๐๐ฃ:
-> Are there perhaps positions where I should now realize the gains of the last few monthsโ.
-> Are there any opportunities to invest countercyclically in stocks where I have been waiting for a long time for an opportunity to enter?
-> Are there already existing positions where I would like to take advantage of a possible correction to buy upโ?
-> And is the sidelines perhaps the better place for me at the moment, before I let my emotion guide my decisions too muchโ
As always, we wish you well in your decisions and ๐ณ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐๐ฒ๐ป ๐๐ป๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ณ ๐๐๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐ ๐ฒ๐ถ๐ป๐๐ป๐ด on the current topic.
We wish you a relaxing end of the day! Magnus & Sรถren ๐๐
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