2D·

Fed interest rate cut prediction

If the rumor proves true, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates in September. In that case, I anticipate gold could gain some momentum.

Fingers crossed 🤞 🚀

#gold
#fed

$DE000EWG0LD1 (+0.25%)
$IGLN (-0.52%)
$WGLD (-0.47%)
$3LGO (-0.69%)

14.08

WisdomTree Gold 3x Daily Leveraged

Bought x2 at €90.63

€181.26

18 Comments

GeldGenie@GeldGenie

My gut (and data) kinda disagree with expected cuts. We’ll see. GL

•

Misinvest@misinvest

@GeldGenie thank you 🙏

••

Ph1l1pp@Ph1l1pp

@GeldGenie what data? 😂

••

GeldGenie@GeldGenie

@Ph1l1pp The ones we discussed in the past. No need to redo that.

••

Ph1l1pp@Ph1l1pp

@GeldGenie well, the market is pricing rate cuts in with a probability of almost 92%. Who’s in the wrong here?

•

ClaraLvt@ClaraLvt

@GeldGenie the market is saying more than 90% chance it’ll happen

••

GeldGenie@GeldGenie

@ClaraLvt It’s an FFFP Calculation. If no misprizing would happen - why would futures and stocks and markets fluctuate? It’s a traders expectation. That’s it. There’s always alternate views. That’s how one wins or looses. I didn’t take a bet on rate cut actions. It’s just my opinion. If I’d be in the feds position, and based on public numbers, I wouldn’t cut and fuel and risk a spike in inflation. Especially since the current rate is rather healthy.

I’d just represent the other 8-ish %.

••

GeldGenie@GeldGenie

@Ph1l1pp If I’m wrong so be it. I won’t care and I’ll make money either way long term 🤷‍♂️

I don’t make a finite claim to be right. But you seem to, so I hope you’re right. 👍

••

GeldGenie@GeldGenie

@ClaraLvt @Ph1l1pp Oh and lastly: The FED has the problem of double bind.

Cut rates now:
Likely worsens inflation if demand stays strong, especially with tariff-related cost pressures, but could support hiring and avoid layoffs if economy slows. Inflation could de-anchor from 2% target, forcing hawkish comments in the press briefing after. Beeing just as negative as no cut.

Hold rates:
Helps contain inflation, especially from demand side, but risks slowing job growth further, especially in interest-sensitive sectors (housing, capex, credit markets).

One way or the others: some loose some
win.

••

ClaraLvt@ClaraLvt

@GeldGenie Job numbers are horrible—> rate cuts. And when trillions are poured into betting markets by big banks it’s not just talks but a real analysis that had been made by professionals and you can make big betting against it if you believe that they are wrong. And I am sure you’ve seen the recent raise in bank related stocks after the recent numbers came out, so this rate cuts is mostly already priced in

••

GeldGenie@GeldGenie

@ClaraLvt again: double bind.

It’s not just big banks betting 😅

And please read some research on FED rates and banking stock correlation in short and medium term. There‘s enough out there disproving your point.

Not gonna discuss that further unless there‘s actual data-driven arguments 😅

••

View all 5 further answers

ClaraLvt@ClaraLvt

Most likely already priced in

•

Misinvest@misinvest

@ClaraLvt the price moves in a very lean range for 3 months now, so I believe it is going to break out

••